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Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island. In this Panamanian tropical rainforest, traps were deployed for two weeks during the wet and dry seasons. Short-term changes in the timing of male flying activity were pronounced, and compositionally distinct assemblages flew during the wet and dry seasons. Notably, the composition of these distinct flying assemblages oscillated in consistent 4-year cycles but did not change during the 16-year study period. Across time, a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model explained 75% of long-term variability in male ant production (i.e., the summed incidence of male species across traps), which responded negatively to monthly maximum temperature, and positively to sea surface temperature, a surrogate for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Establishing these relationships allowed us to forecast ant production until 2022 when year-long local climate variables were available. Consistent with the data, the forecast indicated no significant changes in long-term temporal trends of male ant production. However, simulations of different scenarios of climate variables found that strong ENSO events and maximum temperature impacted male ant production positively and negatively, respectively. Our results highlight the dependence of ant male production on both short- and long-term temperature changes, which is critical under current global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Soil microbes can influence patterns of diversity in plant communities via plant–soil feedbacks. Intraspecific plant–soil feedbacks occur when plant genotype leads to variations in soil microbial composition, resulting in differences in the performance of seedlings growing near their maternal plants versus seedlings growing near nonmaternal conspecific plants. How consistently such intraspecific plant–soil feedbacks occur in natural plant communities is unclear, especially in variable field conditions. Methods: In an in situ experiment with four native tree species on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, seedlings of each species were transplanted beneath their maternal tree or another conspecific tree in the BCI forest. Mortality and growth were assessed at the end of the wet season (~4 months post‐transplant) and at the end of the experiment (~7 months post‐transplant). Results: Differences in seedling performance among field treatments were inconsistent among species and eroded over time. Effects of field environment were detected at the end of the wet season in two of the four species: Virola surinamensis seedlings had higher survival beneath their maternal tree than other conspecific trees, while seedling survival of Ormosia macrocalyx was higher under other conspecific trees. However, these differences were gone by the end of the experiment. Conclusions: Our results suggest that intraspecific plant–soil feedbacks may not be consistent in the field for tropical tree species and may have a limited role in determining seedling performance in tropical tree communities. Future studies are needed to elucidate the environmental and genetic factors that determine the incidence and direction of intraspecific plant–soil feedbacks in plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1938 and 1954, Dr. David Fairchild (1869–1954) was Director Emeritus of Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden (FTBG). During this period, he undertook four expeditions in the Old and New World. The second of these took place between June and October 1941 and targeted Panama, Colombia, and Guatemala. Results pertinent to the Central American endeavors are presented. Plant material from 46 species was collected and 108 photos were taken. Due to unknown reasons these collections did not reach FTBG and only 15 of the accessions were sent to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) plant germplasm repositories. Upon his return to USA, Fairchild published only one article with highlights of this expedition, it was on cherimoyas of Colombia and Guatemala. Unlike for his other expeditions, Fairchild did not write a journal for the trip; therefore, details of this voyage have been mostly inferred from his plant collection books, scattered correspondence, and photographs. Fairchild’s wife, Marian Fairchild (1880–1962), also joined the trip and during the visit to Panama, his son Graham Bell Fairchild (1906–1994) participated in the expedition. Botanists Wilson Popenoe (1892–1975, from United Fruit Company), Paul Allen (1911–1963, from Summit Gardens, Panama), and Walter R. Lindsay (also from Summit Gardens) as well as the family of coffee plantation owner Robert Hempstead (1912–1942) assisted during the trip. An overview of the other expeditions that Fairchild made to Panama (years 1899, 1921, 1924, and 1933) and Guatemala (year 1944) is also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In tropical forests, trees strategically balance growth patterns to optimise fitness amid multiple environmental stressors. Wind poses the primary risk to a tree's mechanical stability, prompting developments such as thicker trunks to withstand the bending forces. Therefore, a trade‐off in resource allocation exists between diameter growth and vertical growth to compete for light. We explore this trade‐off by measuring the relative wind mortality risk for 95 trees in a tropical forest in Panama and testing how it varies with tree size, species and wind exposure. Surprisingly, local wind exposure and tree size had minimal impact on wind mortality risk; instead, species wood density emerged as the crucial factor. Low wood density species exhibited a significantly greater wind mortality risk, suggesting a prioritisation of competition for light over biomechanical stability. Our study highlights the pivotal role of wind safety in shaping the life‐history strategy of trees and structuring diverse tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extending and safeguarding tropical forest ecosystems is critical for combating climate change and biodiversity loss. One of its constituents, lianas, is spreading and increasing in abundance on a global scale. This is particularly concerning as lianas negatively impact forests' carbon fluxes, dynamics, and overall resilience, potentially exacerbating both crises. While possibly linked to climate-change-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation and drought intensification, the reasons behind their increasing abundance remain elusive. Prior research shows distinct physiological differences between lianas and trees, but it is unclear whether these differences confer a demographic advantage to lianas with climate change. Guided by extensive datasets collected in Panamanian tropical forests, we developed a tractable model integrating physiology, demography, and epidemiology. Our findings suggest that CO2 fertilization, a climate change factor promoting forest productivity, gives lianas a demographic advantage. Conversely, factors such as extreme drought generally cause a decrease in liana prevalence. Such a decline in liana prevalence is expected from a physiological point of view because lianas have drought-sensitive traits. However, our analysis underscores the importance of not exclusively relying on physiological processes, as interactions with demographic mechanisms (i.e., the forest structure) can contrast these expectations, causing an increase in lianas with drought. Similarly, our results emphasize that identical physiological responses between lianas and trees still lead to liana increase. Even if lianas exhibit collinear but weaker responses in their performance compared to trees, a temporary liana prevalence increase might manifest driven by the faster response time of lianas imposed by their distinct life-history strategies than trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explaining diversity in tropical forests remains a challenge in community ecology. Theory tells us that species differences can stabilize communities by reducing competition, while species similarities can promote diversity by reducing fitness differences and thus prolonging the time to competitive exclusion. Combined, these processes may lead to clustering of species such that species are niche differentiated across clusters and share a niche within each cluster. Here, we characterize this partial niche differentiation in a tropical forest in Panama by measuring spatial clustering of woody plants and relating these clusters to local soil conditions. We find that species were spatially clustered and the clusters were associated with specific concentrations of soil nutrients, reflecting the existence of nutrient niches. Species were almost twice as likely to recruit in their own nutrient niche. A decision tree algorithm showed that local soil conditions correctly predicted the niche of the trees with up to 85% accuracy. Iron, zinc, phosphorus, manganese, and soil pH were among the best predictors of species clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Although studies of insect decline have recently dominated headlines worldwide, their interpretation requires caution since for most species, we lack long‐term population baselines. In the tropics, where most insect species thrive, our knowledge is even more limited and so reliable insect assessments must originate from well‐established long‐term monitoring efforts. Combining the extensive monitoring data from the Arthropod Program of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, we compare whether known arthropod diversity can be detected through metabarcoding of bulk insect samples obtained through automatic light‐trapping. Our study detected 4402 species based on Barcode Index Numbers (BIN) and detected fine‐scale differences between wet and dry seasons and sampling localities. We further refined our analysis to indicate which families and genera explained seasonal turnover. Using samples collected in parallel, but sorted manually as part of the ongoing arthropod monitoring program, we compared these methods. Out of 538 BINs recovered through manual sorting, there was a 70% overlap with the metabarcoding data; however, it represented 30% of the total BINs detected through metabarcoding. Expecting higher detection through metabarcoding, we also compare the results with the 14 years of sampling in BCI to better understand how well the monitoring program has captured the diversity of focal groups. Our results revealed a ~50% overlap between both methods and similar total catch. Barcode Index Numbers manually detected but not recovered by metabarcoding highlight some of the limitations of molecular detection methods such as primer bias. Contrastingly, BINs detected with metabarcoding, but not recovered by the traditional monitoring scheme, highlight the importance of local and regional barcode reference libraries.

Understanding the mechanisms that promote the coexistence of hundreds of species over small areas in tropical forest remains a challenge. Many tropical tree species are presumed to be functionally equivalent shade tolerant species but exist on a continuum of performance trade‐offs between survival in shade and the ability to quickly grow in sunlight. These trade‐offs can promote coexistence by reducing fitness differences.Variation in plant functional traits related to resource acquisition is thought to predict variation in performance among species, perhaps explaining community assembly across habitats with gradients in resource availability. Many studies have found low predictive power, however, when linking trait measurements to species demographic rates.Seedlings face different challenges recruiting on the forest floor and may exhibit different traits and/or performance trade‐offs than older individuals face in the eventual adult niche. Seed mass is the typical proxy for seedling success, but species also differ in cotyledon strategy (reserve vs. photosynthetic) or other leaf, stem and root traits. These can cause species with the same average seed mass to have divergent performance in the same habitat.We combined long‐term studies of seedling dynamics with functional trait data collected at a standard life‐history stage in three diverse neotropical forests to ask whether variation in coordinated suites of traits predicts variation among species in demographic performance.Across hundreds of species in Ecuador, Panama and Puerto Rico, we found seedlings displayed correlated suites of leaf, stem, and root traits, which strongly correlated with seed mass and cotyledon strategy. Variation among species in seedling functional traits, seed mass, and cotyledon strategy were strong predictors of trade‐offs in seedling growth and survival. These results underscore the importance of matching the ontogenetic stage of the trait measurement to the stage of demographic dynamics.Our findings highlight the importance of cotyledon strategy in addition to seed mass as a key component of seed and seedling biology in tropical forests because of the contribution of carbon reserves in storage cotyledons to reducing mortality rates and explaining the growth‐survival trade‐off among species.Synthesis: With strikingly consistent patterns across three tropical forests, we find strong evidence for the promise of functional traits to provide mechanistic links between seedling form and demographic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining population demographic rates is fundamental to understanding differences in species' life‐history strategies and their capacity to coexist. Calculating demographic rates, however, is challenging and requires long‐term, large‐scale censuses. Body size may serve as a simple predictor of demographic rate; can it act as a proxy for demographic rate when those data are unavailable? We tested the hypothesis that maximum body size predicts species' demographic rate using repeated censuses of the 77 most common liana species on the Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI) 50‐ha plot. We found that maximum stem diameter does predict species' population turnover and demography. We also found that lianas on BCI can grow to the enormous diameter of 635 mm, indicating that they can store large amounts of carbon and compete intensely with tropical canopy trees. This study is the first to show that maximum stem diameter can predict plant species' demographic rates and that lianas can attain extremely large diameters. Understanding liana demography is particularly timely because lianas are increasing rapidly in many tropical forests, yet their species‐level population dynamics remain chronically understudied. Determining per‐species maximum liana diameters in additional forests will enable systematic comparative analyses of liana demography and potential influence across forest types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hyperdiverse tropical forest tree communities illustrate a fundamental problem in ecology: How can many species coexist given relatively few limiting resources? Neutral theory provides a solution by positing that species have equal fitness and hence drift to extinction slowly. However, neutral theory seriously under‐predicts temporal changes in species abundances. This can be remedied by breaking neutrality and adding temporal environmental stochasticity (TES), but the mechanisms mediating the effects of TES on species richness remain unclear. Here, we make progress by analysing a local community model with species competing for a common resource under TES, to derive formulae partitioning species richness according to different mechanisms.By applying our formulae to generic parameter sets for tropical forest tree communities, we found that when the autocorrelation time of TES was short, the dominant mechanism driving species richness was non‐linear averaging of the interspecific competition term over time, which reduced the typical strength of interspecific competition and boosted richness relative to the neutral case. However, greater immigration to the community resulted in more species and hence weaker non‐linear averaging due to the law of large numbers. In contrast, when the autocorrelation time of TES was long, the dominant mechanism driving species richness was strong selection between changes in environmental conditions, which increased the typical strength of interspecific competition and reduced richness relative to the neutral case.By applying our formulae to a specific parameter set for a tropical forest tree community in Panama, we found that TES had minor effects on species richness because (i) the immigration rate was sufficiently large for non‐linear averaging of the interspecific competition term to be weak and (ii) the autocorrelation time was sufficiently short to suppress the effects of selection.Synthesis. We provide a novel mechanistic explanation of how TES affects tree species richness in tropical forests, in particular how TES often has minor effects on richness despite having substantial effects on temporal changes in species abundances. This provides a deeper insight into why a neutral model with added TES can accurately capture static and dynamic aspects of tree community diversity in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: The specialized metabolites of plants are recognized as key chemical traits in mediating the ecology and evolution of sundry plant–biotic interactions, from pollination to seed predation. Intra‐ and interspecific patterns of specialized metabolite diversity have been studied extensively in leaves, but the diverse biotic interactions that contribute to specialized metabolite diversity encompass all plant organs. Focusing on two species of Psychotria shrubs, we investigated and compared patterns of specialized metabolite diversity in leaves and fruit with respect to each organ's diversity of biotic interactions. Methods: To evaluate associations between biotic interaction diversity and specialized metabolite diversity, we combined UPLC‐MS metabolomic analysis of foliar and fruit specialized metabolites with existing surveys of leaf‐ and fruit‐centered biotic interactions. We compared patterns of specialized metabolite richness and variance among vegetative and reproductive tissues, among plants, and between species. Results: In our study system, leaves interact with a far larger number of consumer species than do fruit, while fruit‐centric interactions are more ecologically diverse in that they involve antagonistic and mutualistic consumers. This aspect of fruit‐centric interactions was reflected in specialized metabolite richness—leaves contained more than fruit, while each organ contained over 200 organ‐specific specialized metabolites. Within each species, leaf‐ and fruit‐specialized metabolite composition varied independently of one another across individual plants. Contrasts in specialized metabolite composition were stronger between organs than between species. Conclusions: As ecologically disparate plant organs with organ‐specific specialized metabolite traits, leaves and fruit can each contribute to the tremendous overall diversity of plant specialized metabolites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether prey species avoid predators and predator species track prey is a poorly understood aspect of predator–prey interactions, given measuring prey tracking by predators and predator avoidance by prey is challenging. A common approach to study these interactions among mammals in field situations is to monitor the spatial proximity of animals at fixed times, using GPS tags fitted to individuals. However, this method is invasive and only allows tracking of a subset of individuals. Here, we use an alternative, noninvasive camera-trapping approach to monitor temporal proximity of predator and prey animals. We deployed camera traps at fixed locations on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, where the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) is the principal mammalian predator, and tested two hypotheses: (1) prey animals avoid ocelots; and (2) ocelots track prey. We quantified temporal proximity of predators and prey by fitting parametric survival models to the time intervals between subsequent prey and predator captures by camera traps, and then compared the observed intervals to random permutations that retained the spatiotemporal distribution of animal activity. We found that time until a prey animal appeared at a location was significantly longer than expected by chance if an ocelot had passed, and that the time until an ocelot appeared at a location was significantly shorter than expected by chance after prey passage. These findings are indirect evidence for both predator avoidance and prey tracking in this system. Our results show that predator avoidance and prey tracking influence predator and prey distribution over time in a field setting. Moreover, this study demonstrates that camera trapping is a viable and noninvasive alternative to GPS tracking for studying certain predator–prey interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population dynamics of most tropical insects are unknown and long‐term monitoring programmes are urgently needed to evaluate a possible insect decline in the tropics. In this context, functional groups can be used effectively to summarise time‐series for species‐rich taxa. Neotropical dung beetles have often been catalogued into functional groups, but close relatives also of ecological significance, the Dynastinae, are awaiting such a classification.Here, we examine the functional groups of Dynastinae at the regional (Panama: 147 species) and local (Barro Colorado Island, BCI: 56 species) scales. Our optimum classification of Panamanian species distinguished five groups, one of which is probably artificial and accounts for species ecologically poorly known.Ecological attributes or species traits mainly influencing the delineation of groups were geographical distribution, body length, seasonal aggregation, larval food and whether the adult may be present in decaying wood.Our analyses indicated that (1) missing trait values and the high percentage of 'cryptic' species (25%) influenced the delineation of groups; (2) the dendrogram similarity of functional groups versus phylogenetic tree was low, although some traits were phylogenetically conserved; and (3) the overall structure of functional groups was conserved when comparing regional and local data, suggesting no drastic loss of functional groups locally.To proceed with the functional classification of poorly known tropical insects, we recommend a cautious selection of traits a priori, inclusion of 'cryptic' species recognised by DNA barcoding, and building phylogenies, which may allow a careful taxonomic imputation to complete species‐traits matrices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to effectively model observed patterns in the spatial configuration of individuals of multiple species in nature, we introduce the saturated pairwise interaction Gibbs point process. Its main strength lies in its ability to model both attraction and repulsion within and between species, over different scales. As such, it is particularly well‐suited to the study of associations in complex ecosystems. Based on the existing literature, we provide an easy to implement fitting procedure as well as a technique to make inference for the model parameters. We also prove that under certain hypotheses the point process is locally stable, which allows us to use the well‐known 'coupling from the past' algorithm to draw samples from the model. Different numerical experiments show the robustness of the model. We study three different ecological data sets, demonstrating in each one that our model helps disentangle competing ecological effects on species' distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying key traits that can serve as proxies for species drought resistance is crucial for predicting and mitigating the effects of climate change in diverse plant communities. Turgor loss point (πtlp) is a recently emerged trait that has been linked to species distributions across gradients of water availability. However, a direct relationship between πtlp and species ability to survive drought has yet to be established for woody species. Using a manipulative field experiment to quantify species drought resistance (i.e., their survival response to drought), combined with measurements of πtlp for 16 tree species, we show a negative relationship between πtlp and seedling drought resistance. Using long‐term forest plot data, we also show that πtlp predicts seedling survival responses to a severe El Niño‐related drought, although additional factors are clearly also important. Our study demonstrates that species with lower πtlp exhibit higher survival under both experimental and natural drought. These results provide a missing cornerstone in the assessment of the traits underlying drought resistance in woody species and strengthen πtlp as a proxy for evaluating which species will lose or win under projections of exacerbating drought regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change leads to increasing temperatures, tropical dry seasons are expected to become more severe. An overall intensification of drought events may strongly affect vascular epiphytes. Especially at the community level, the response of epiphytes to intense drought events is still poorly understood. Therefore, the severe El Niño event of 2015/16 was used to assess the impact of prolonged drought on an epiphyte community on Annona glabra host trees, around Barro Colorado Island. Prior census data from 2002 and 2015 served as a reference for background community dynamics. Net species changes and net population changes at the species level were determined for both periods. While the total abundance of the community almost doubled during the 13 years of the reference period, individual numbers decreased by c. 17% within the year of the El Niño event. Overall, the El Niño event strongly affected the epiphyte community and led to a strong decrease in epiphyte numbers and species. These findings contrast with most previous studies in tropical lowlands that found epiphyte populations to be rather resistant to similarly severe drought events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Biotropica is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract For community ecologists, “neutral or not?” is a fundamental question, and thus, rejecting neutrality is an important first step before investigating the deterministic processes underlying community dynamics. Hubbell's neutral model is an important contribution to the exploration of community dynamics, both technically and philosophically. However, the neutrality tests for this model are limited by a lack of statistical power, partly because the zero‐sum assumption of the model is unrealistic. In this study, we developed a neutrality test for local communities that implements non‐zero‐sum community dynamics and determines the number of new species (Nsp) between observations. For the non‐zero‐sum neutrality test, the model distributed the expected Nsp, as calculated by extensive simulations, which allowed us to investigate the neutrality of the observed community by comparing the observed Nsp with distributions of the expected Nsp derived from the simulations. For this comparison, we developed a new “non‐zero‐sum Nsp test,” which we validated by running multiple neutral simulations using different parameter settings. We found that the non‐zero‐sum Nsp test rejected neutrality at a near‐significance level, which justified the validity of our approach. For an empirical test, the non‐zero‐sum Nsp test was applied to real tropical tree communities in Panama and Malaysia. The non‐zero‐sum Nsp test rejected neutrality in both communities when the observation interval was long and Nsp was large. Hence, the non‐zero‐sum Nsp test is an effective way to examine neutrality and has reasonable statistical power to reject the neutral model, especially when the observed Nsp is large. This unique and simple approach is statistically powerful, even though it only employs two temporal sequences of community data. Thus, this test can be easily applied to existing datasets. In addition, application of the test will provide significant benefits for detecting changing biodiversity under climate change and anthropogenic disturbance.

For community ecologists, "neutral or not?" is a fundamental question, and thus, rejecting neutrality is an important first step before investigating the deterministic processes underlying community dynamics. Hubbell's neutral model is an important contribution to the exploration of community dynamics, both technically and philosophically. However, the neutrality tests for this model are limited by a lack of statistical power, partly because the zero‐sum assumption of the model is unrealistic. In this study, we developed a neutrality test for local communities that implements non‐zero‐sum community dynamics and determines the number of new species (Nsp) between observations. For the non‐zero‐sum neutrality test, the model distributed the expected Nsp, as calculated by extensive simulations, which allowed us to investigate the neutrality of the observed community by comparing the observed Nsp with distributions of the expected Nsp derived from the simulations. For this comparison, we developed a new "non‐zero‐sum Nsp test," which we validated by running multiple neutral simulations using different parameter settings. We found that the non‐zero‐sum Nsp test rejected neutrality at a near‐significance level, which justified the validity of our approach. For an empirical test, the non‐zero‐sum Nsp test was applied to real tropical tree communities in Panama and Malaysia. The non‐zero‐sum Nsp test rejected neutrality in both communities when the observation interval was long and Nsp was large. Hence, the non‐zero‐sum Nsp test is an effective way to examine neutrality and has reasonable statistical power to reject the neutral model, especially when the observed Nsp is large. This unique and simple approach is statistically powerful, even though it only employs two temporal sequences of community data. Thus, this test can be easily applied to existing datasets. In addition, application of the test will provide significant benefits for detecting changing biodiversity under climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Plants and pollinators are linked but their dynamics are scarcely known. Chemical monitoring of male “orchid bees” at two sites revealed 75% of species were stable or increasing. Forest bees of 33 species, with live sighting at Pipeline Road (PR), and trapping on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), included 132,000 individuals. No species or community changes occurred in strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate events, which lasted 145 total months during more than 70 bee generations. Parasite and host bees fluctuated in unison. A few very common species, adapted to relatively disturbed habitat, diminished over time at PR, while sightings and traps revealed stable abundance ranks in Euglossa 40 years on BCI. Bee abundance and biomass were stable but 50% of species had few records. Orchid bees appear more stable in older forest, they were evidently insulated from ENSO disturbance, and probably benefit from the increasing abundance of flowering lianas and vines.

Canopy disturbance explains liana abundance and distribution within tropical forests and thus may also explain the widespread pattern of increasing liana abundance; however, this hypothesis remains untested. We used a 10‐year study (2007–2017) of 117,100 rooted lianas in an old‐growth Panamanian forest to test whether local canopy disturbance explains increasing liana abundance. We found that liana density increased 29.2% and basal area 12.5%. The vast majority of these increases were associated with clonal stem proliferation following canopy disturbance, particularly in liana‐dense, low‐canopy gaps, which had far greater liana increases than did undisturbed forest. Lianas may be ecological niche constructors, arresting tree regeneration in gaps and thus creating a high‐light environment that favours sustained liana proliferation. Our findings demonstrate that liana abundance is increasing rapidly and their ability to proliferate via copious clonal stem production in canopy gaps explains much of their increase in this and possibly other tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants and pollinators are linked but their dynamics are scarcely known. Chemical monitoring of male "orchid bees" at two sites revealed 75% of species were stable or increasing. Forest bees of 33 species, with live sighting at Pipeline Road (PR), and trapping on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), included 132,000 individuals. No species or community changes occurred in strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate events, which lasted 145 total months during more than 70 bee generations. Parasite and host bees fluctuated in unison. A few very common species, adapted to relatively disturbed habitat, diminished over time at PR, while sightings and traps revealed stable abundance ranks in Euglossa 40 years on BCI. Bee abundance and biomass were stable but 50% of species had few records. Orchid bees appear more stable in older forest, they were evidently insulated from ENSO disturbance, and probably benefit from the increasing abundance of flowering lianas and vines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the tropics, antagonistic seed predation networks may have different properties than mutualistic pollination and seed dispersal networks, but the former have been considerably less studied. We tested whether the structure of antagonistic tripartite networks composed of host plants, insects developing within seeds and fruits, and their insect parasitoids could be predicted from plant phylogenetic distance and plant traits. We considered subsets of the networks ('subnetworks') at three rainforest locations (Panama, Thailand, Papua New Guinea), based on insect families, plant families or plant functional groups. We recorded 3197 interactions and observed a low percentage of realized interactions, especially in Panama, where insect host specificity was higher than in Thailand or New Guinea. Several factors may explain this, including insect faunal composition, incidence of dry fruits, high fruit production and high occurrence of Fabaceae at the Panamanian site. Host specificity was greater among seed‐eaters than pulp‐eaters and for insects feeding on dry fruits as opposed to insects feeding on fleshy fruits. Plant species richness within plant families did not influence insect host specificity, but site characteristics may be important in this regard. Most subnetworks were extremely specialized, such as those including Tortricidae and Bruchinae in Panama. Plant phylogenetic distance, plant basal area and plant traits (fruit length, number of seeds per fruit) had important effects on several network statistics in regressions weighted by sampling effort. A path analysis revealed a weak direct influence of plant phylogenetic distance on parasitoid richness, indicating limited support for the 'nasty host hypothesis'. Our study emphasizes the duality between seed dispersal and seed predation networks in the tropics, as key plant species differ and host specificity tends to be low in the former and higher in the latter. This underlines the need to study both types of networks for sound practices of forest regeneration and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenol oxidases are a group of extracellular enzymes that catalyze the oxidation of lignin and phenolic compounds in soil organic matter. Despite their importance, little is known about these enzymes in tropical soils, particularly the extent to which minerals like manganese (Mn) oxides contribute to the measured activity. We assayed phenol oxidase activity in surface and subsurface (A and B) horizons from 15 soil profiles representing a steep Mn gradient under a lowland tropical forest in Panama. Fresh and sterilized (autoclaved) soils were assayed to determine the abiotic contribution to activity. Assays were conducted using 5 mM l-DOPA substrate in bicarbonate buffer at pH 8.5. We also determined amorphous metal oxide concentrations, soil pH, organic matter, and effective cation exchange capacity (CEC). We found little difference in phenol oxidase activity between fresh and autoclaved soils, indicating a considerable abiotic contribution to substrate oxidation. Furthermore, phenol oxidase activity was similar in surface and subsurface soils, despite markedly lower organic matter at depth. Phenol oxidase activity was correlated positively with amorphous Mn oxide concentrations (extractable Mn determined by acidic ammonium oxalate extraction), suggesting a potential mechanism of abiotic oxidation. These results have important implications for understanding carbon dynamics in tropical soils, because they suggest that (1) a portion of organic matter turnover is mediated by abiotic oxidation via Mn oxides, and (2) conventional measures of phenol oxidase activity reflect abiotic oxidation rather than the activity of enzymes synthesized by the microbial community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Biotropica is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Soil CO2 fluxes from tropical forests into the atmosphere are expected to increase due to global warming. Studies of environmental conditions that contribute to carbon flux are now an important focus for climate change research. However, carbon flux in tropical areas such as Panama has received less attention. In Panama, water sources, rainforests, and soil conditions are vital natural resources, particularly within the Panama Canal watershed. Mature and secondary forests represent around 60% of Panama land cover. Secondary forests are considered potential carbon sinks and they are of economic interest as a means of mitigating increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions; however, the dynamics of carbon fluxes in the soil of secondary forests remain poorly understood. This research investigated which environmental factors influence soil CO2 efflux. We used a closed chamber method to measure soil CO2 in the tropical forest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. During 2016 to 2017, humidity had a significant effect on CO2 flux (average: 4.36 μmol/m2s), which was substantially lower than expected for this type of tropical forest. These findings will contribute to a better understanding of the complex and dynamic interrelationships between the water and carbon cycle, as well as abiotic drivers of soil CO2 fluxes. Our use of soil respiration chambers and infrared gas analyzer systems represents an innovative contribution to the water-carbon nexus of Panama and potentially of other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predation produces intense selection and a diversity of defences. Reactive defences are triggered by predator cues, whereas proactive defences are always in effect. We assess whether prey rely on proactive defences when predator cues do not correlate well with predation risk. Many bats use echolocation to hunt insects, and many insects have evolved to hear bats. However, in species-rich environments like Neotropical forests, bats have extremely diverse foraging strategies, and the presence of echolocation corresponds only weakly to the presence of predators. We assess whether katydids that live in habitats with many non-dangerous bat species stop calling when exposed to echolocation. For 11 species of katydids, we quantified behavioural and neural responses to predator cues, and katydid signalling activity over 24 h periods. Despite having the sensory capacity to detect predators, many Neotropical forest katydids continued calling in the presence of predator cues, displaying proactive defences instead (short, infrequent calls totalling less than 2 cumulative seconds of sound per 24 h). Neotropical katydid signalling illustrates a fascinating case where trophic interactions are probably mediated by a third group: bats with alternative foraging strategies (e.g. frugivory). Although these co-occurring bats are not trophically connected, their mere presence disrupts the correlation between cue and predation risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA‐TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA‐TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long‐term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade‐tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand‐level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand‐level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA‐TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests challenge us to understand biodiversity, as numerous seemingly similar species persist on only a handful of shared resources. Recent ecological theory posits that biodiversity is sustained by a combination of species differences reducing interspecific competition and species similarities increasing time to competitive exclusion. Together, these mechanisms counterintuitively predict that competing species should cluster by traits, in contrast with traditional expectations of trait overdispersion. Here, we show for the first time that trees in a tropical forest exhibit a clustering pattern. In a 50‐ha plot on Barro Colorado Island in Panama, species abundances exhibit clusters in two traits connected to light capture strategy, suggesting that competition for light structures community composition. Notably, we find four clusters by maximum height, quantitatively supporting the classical grouping of Neotropical woody plants into shrubs, understory, midstory, and canopy layers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Ephuta Say is a widespread New World genus of mutillid wasp whose ecology is poorly understood. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine how Ephuta species abundance varies annually and seasonally driven by weather conditions and hosts. Methods: Ephuta specimens, located in the "old forest" at Barro Colorado Island, were examined from weekly samples (2001-2006) of ten Malaise traps. The monthly abundance of each Ephuta species was compared with monthly average humidity, solar radiation, temperature and rainfall. Results: Nine species and ten morphospecies were identified. Most specimens were collected from March to June. April was the month reported with the greatest abundance. Of the four abiotic variables measured, only average monthly temperature was correlated with Ephuta abundance. Months with the highest number of Ephuta specimens were correlated with suspected host abundance, as indicated by the monthly abundance of Pompilidae (Hymenoptera) captured during the year 2007. Conclusions: We concluded that Ephuta display strong seasonal variation in abundance, with the peaks occurring during the end of the dry season and beginning of the rainy season, which correlate broadly with temperature and the abundance of their pompilid hosts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many well-studied animal species use conspicuous, repetitive signals that attract both mates and predators. Orthopterans (crickets, katydids, and grasshoppers) are renowned for their acoustic signals. In Neotropical forests, however, many katydid species produce extremely short signals, totaling only a few seconds of sound per night, likely in response to predation by acoustically orienting predators. The rare signals of these katydid species raises the question of how they find conspecific mates in a structurally complex rainforest. While acoustic mechanisms, such as duetting, likely facilitate mate finding, we test the hypothesis that mate finding is further facilitated by colocalization on particular host plant species. DNA barcoding allows us to identify recently consumed plants from katydid stomach contents. We use DNA barcoding to test the prediction that katydids of the same species will have closely related plant species in their stomach. We do not find evidence for dietary specialization. Instead, katydids consumed a wide mix of plants within and across the flowering plants (27 species in 22 genera, 16 families, and 12 orders) with particular representation in the orders Fabales and Laurales. Some evidence indicates that katydids may gather on plants during a narrow window of rapid leaf out, but additional investigations are required to determine whether katydid mate finding is facilitated by gathering at transient food resources.

Over the past decades, tropical forests have experienced both compositional and structural changes. In the Neotropics, researchers at multiple sites have observed significant increases in the abundance and biomass of lianas (i.e. woody vines) relative to trees. However, the role of dynamics at early life stages in contributing to increasing liana abundance remains unclear.We took advantage of a unique dataset on seedling dynamics over 16 years in ~20 000 1‐m2 plots in a tropical forest in Panama to examine temporal and spatial trends in liana and tree seedling abundance.We found that the relative abundance of liana seedlings increased across the study period, from 0.18 in 2001 to 0.24 in 2017. However, increases in liana seedling relative abundance appear to have levelled off in more recent years. The observed increases in liana relative abundance appear to be the result of both higher survival and higher recruitment rates of liana seedlings compared to tree seedlings.Increasing liana abundance in the seedling layer was not explained by annual variation in dry season length, total rainfall or the proportion of area occupied by canopy gaps. In addition, liana seedlings did not exhibit a demographic advantage (i.e. higher recruitment or survival) over tree seedlings in dry habitats.Synthesis. Our results reveal that seedling communities experienced important compositional changes in the past, but liana seedling relative abundance may have stabilized in recent years. Longer‐term monitoring is needed to determine whether tropical forests will continue to experience compositional changes that may alter forest structure and ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The top‐down and indirect effects of insects on plant communities depend on patterns of host use, which are often poorly documented, particularly in species‐rich tropical forests. At Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we compiled the first food web quantifying trophic interactions between the majority of co‐occurring woody plant species and their internally feeding insect seed predators. Our study is based on more than 200 000 fruits representing 478 plant species, associated with 369 insect species. Insect host‐specificity was remarkably high: only 20% of seed predator species were associated with more than one plant species, while each tree species experienced seed predation from a median of two insect species. Phylogeny, but not plant traits, explained patterns of seed predator attack. These data suggest that seed predators are unlikely to mediate indirect interactions such as apparent competition between plant species, but are consistent with their proposed contribution to maintaining plant diversity via the Janzen–Connell mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of forest degradation, fragmentation, and climate change occur over long time periods, yet relatively few data are available to evaluate the long-term effects of these disturbances on tropical species occurrence. Here, we quantified changes in occupancy of 50 bird species over 17 years on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, a model system for the long-term effects of habitat fragmentation. The historical data set (2002–2005) was based on point counts, whereas the contemporary data set (2018) was based on acoustic monitoring. For most species, there was no significant change in occupancy; however, the occupancy of four species (Tinamus major, Polioptila plumbea, Myiarchus tuberculifer, and Ceratopipra mentalis) increased significantly, and the occupancy of three species (Saltator grossus, Melanerpes pucherani, and Cyanoloxia cyanoides) decreased significantly. Forest age explained the majority of occupancy variation and affected the occupancy of more bird species than survey period or elevation. Approximately 50% of the species seem to favor old-growth forest, and 15 species (30%) had a significantly higher occupancy in old-growth forest sites. Elevation had no significant impact on the occupancy of the majority of bird species. Although BCI has been a protected reserve for approximately 100 years, land-use legacies (i.e., forest age) continue to influence bird distribution.

Local tree species distributions in tropical forests correlate strongly with soil water availability. However, it is unclear how species distributions are shaped by demographic responses to soil water availability. Specifically, it remains unknown how growth affects species distributions along water availability gradients relative to mortality.We quantified spatial variation in dry season soil water potential (SWP) in the moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to evaluate relationships between demographic responses of naturally regenerating seedlings to SWP (RGRs and first‐year mortality) and species distributions along the SWP gradient for 62 species. We also tested whether species that were more abundant at the wet or dry end of the gradient performed better (a) at their "home end" of the gradient ("best at home" hypothesis) and (b) "at home" compared to co‐occurring species ("home advantage" hypothesis).Four and five species responded significantly to SWP in terms of growth or mortality respectively. Growth (but not mortality) responses were positively related to species distributions along the SWP gradient; species with a more positive (negative) growth response to SWP were more abundant at higher (lower) SWP, that is, at wetter (drier) sites. In addition, wet distributed species grew faster on the wet end of the SWP gradient than on the dry end ("best at home") and grew faster on the wet end than dry distributed species ("home advantage"). Mortality rates declined with seedling size for all species. Thus, seedling growth responses to SWP indirectly shaped local species distributions by influencing seedling size and thereby mortality risk.Synthesis. By demonstrating how growth responses to spatial variation in soil water availability affect species distributions, we identified a demographic process underlying niche differentiation on hydrological gradients in tropical forests. Recognizing the role of these growth responses in shaping species distributions should improve the understanding of tropical forest composition and diversity along rainfall gradients and with climate change. This study shows that growth responses to soil moisture play an important role in shaping the distribution of tree seedlings along a local soil moisture gradient. Species that grew well on the wet end of the gradient were more abundant there because they became taller more quickly, reducing their mortality risk, and because they grew faster than dry distributed species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenology models developed for temperate and boreal plants predict a single, population‐level first flowering date for each year. These models cannot accommodate species that flower multiple times each year in humid tropical forests nor flowering data with census‐interval rather than daily temporal resolution. Here, we present a new model framework able to predict the timing of multiple annual flowering events from census data. We extend a recent model, which predicted tropical flowering probabilities as discrete events occurring on census dates, by integrating predicted flowering probabilities over all dates between censuses. We evaluate our model against 29 years of daily climate and weekly flowering records for Hybanthus prunifolius (Violaceae) and Handroanthus guayacan (Bignoniaceae) from Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Previous experiments demonstrate that both species flower shortly after a heavy, dry‐season rain interrupts an extended dry period. Our model captures this sequence of rainfall events. Best‐fit model parameters are consistent with previous experimental results. This match suggests the new model framework will provide novel insights for other humid tropical forest species. We present a new model framework to evaluate hypotheses concerning environmental cues for phenology using observational records. We validate the approach using 29 years of daily climate records and weekly flowering observations for two tropical tree species whose flowering cues are known from prior experiments. The new model framework successfully identified the experimentally determined flowering cues promising new insights for the vast majority of species whose phenology has not been manipulated experimentally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant enemies that attack chemically similar host species are thought to mediate competitive exclusion of chemically similar plants and select for chemical divergence among closely related species. This hypothesis predicts that plant defenses should diverge rapidly, minimizing phylogenetic signal. To evaluate this prediction, we quantified metabolomic similarity for 203 tree species that represent >89% of all individuals in large forest plots in Maryland and Panama. We constructed molecular networks based on mass spectrometry of all 203 species, quantified metabolomic similarity for all pairwise combinations of species, and used phylogenetically independent contrasts to evaluate how pairwise metabolomic similarity varies phylogenetically. Leaf metabolomes exhibited clear phylogenetic signal for the temperate plot, which is inconsistent with the prediction. In contrast, leaf metabolomes lacked phylogenetic signal for the tropical plot, with particularly low metabolomic similarity among congeners. In addition, community‐wide variation in metabolomes was much greater for the tropical community, with single tropical genera supporting greater metabolomic variation than the entire temperate community. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that stronger plant‐enemy interactions lead to more rapid divergence and greater metabolomic variation in tropical than temperate plants. Additional community‐level foliar metabolomes will be required from tropical and temperate forests to evaluate this hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Plant-associated fungi often harbor endohyphal bacteria (EHB) that modulate fungal phenotypes. We quantified the effects of EHB on interactions between fungi and seeds of neotropical pioneer trees, which fungi colonize naturally in forest soil. Seeds were exposed to six fungal isolates that harbored EHB, and to clones of those fungi from which EHB were removed by antibiotic treatment. Seed colonization by fungi was evaluated for five tree species, and germination and viability were evaluated for three tree species. EHB influenced seed colonization by fungi in 5 of 30 fungus-tree species combinations, but the magnitude of their effects was small and the direction of effects depended upon fungal isolate-tree species pairs. EHB had rare and context-dependent effects on seed germination and viability, but their effects were strong when observed. Rare but powerful effects of EHB on fungal interactions with seeds highlight important and context-dependent aspects of plant and fungal ecology. Highlights • Endohyphal bacteria (EHB) are common in seed-associated fungi. • We measured how EHB influence colonization, germination, and viability of seeds. • EHB had little effect on the ability of fungi to colonize seeds. • Axenic fungi either had no effect, or reduced seed viability and germination. • EHB had rare, variable, and context-dependent effects on seed germination and viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]