Search

It is central for climate policy to understand, monitor and forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, generating insights on the key factors and actions with a greater impact to mitigate and adapt to global warming. Focusing on the leading role of cities, it is relevant to build robust and reliable GHG emissions prospects for every city committing to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In this paper, a novel methodology is proposed to build those prospects, presenting a case study with 6231 EU-27 cities and local municipalities taken from the Global Covenant of Mayors (GCoM). Key GHG emissions predictors for the target years of 2020 and 2030 refer to the baseline energy consumption and associated GHG emissions, as well as the population and the national emissions per capita trend. Additionally, other informative predictors are the baseline inventory year, the reduction target, the disaggregated baseline emissions by type of fuel (fossils or renewables), the heating and cooling degree days and the NUTS urban/rural categorization. The proposed methodology allows assessing the cities' achievements based on their expected performance, and it could be further implemented to support new cities willing to commit to a significant reduction of their GHG emissions. • A robust methodology is proposed to predict GHG emissions for cities committing to climate change mitigation and adaptation. • Key predictors refer to local, regional and national sources of information. • A case study is performed with 6231 European cities: 2030 commitments are expected to achieve a 40 % GHG emissions reduction. • The models described in this paper provide useful information to urban policy makers in the climate action planning process. • The results are replicable in the context of transnational initiatives involving cities in the fight against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]