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The European Union (EU) has recently published its first list of invasive alien species (IAS) of EU concern to which current legislation must apply. The list comprises species known to pose great threats to biodiversity and needs to be maintained and updated. Horizon scanning is seen as critical to identify the most threatening potential IAS that do not yet occur in Europe to be subsequently risk assessed for future listing. Accordingly, we present a systematic consensus horizon scanning procedure to derive a ranked list of potential IAS likely to arrive, establish, spread and have an impact on biodiversity in the region over the next decade. The approach is unique in the continental scale examined, the breadth of taxonomic groups and environments considered, and the methods and data sources used. International experts were brought together to address five broad thematic groups of potential IAS. For each thematic group the experts first independently assembled lists of potential IAS not yet established in the EU but potentially threatening biodiversity if introduced. Experts were asked to score the species within their thematic group for their separate likelihoods of i) arrival, ii) establishment, iii) spread, and iv) magnitude of the potential negative impact on biodiversity within the EU. Experts then convened for a 2‐day workshop applying consensus methods to compile a ranked list of potential IAS. From an initial working list of 329 species, a list of 66 species not yet established in the EU that were considered to be very high (8 species), high (40 species) or medium (18 species) risk species was derived. Here, we present these species highlighting the potential negative impacts and the most likely biogeographic regions to be affected by these potential IAS. We identified 66 species, that are currently absent from the EU, which pose a very high, high or medium threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. The species span a range of functional groups, with primary producers being numerically dominant. Escape from confinement is the pathway considered to be the most likely route of introduction for many species, particularly among plants and vertebrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas ( PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%-18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long-established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14-55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change and invasive species are two major biodiversity threats expected to provoke extinctions of many species in the future. This study evaluates the joint threat posed by climate change and two invasive species: the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) and the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus), on the distribution of two endangered freshwater species: the depressed river mussel (Pseudanodonta complanata) and the white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes), at the scale of Europe. We expected the native species to experience a gradual contraction over time in their geographic range size, while the invasive species would maintain or increase their spread; therefore, their overlap would increase, further threatening the conservation of the native species. To test these three hypotheses, ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were calibrated with current distributions and projected onto present and 2050 future climatic scenarios. In agreement with our expectations, the 2050 scenarios suggested D. polymorpha may strongly benefit from climate changes (increase of 15–20% in range size), while the depressed river mussel would experience a considerable loss (14–36%), the overlap between both mussels increasing up to 24%. Although both crayfishes were predicted to be negatively affected by climate changes, the contraction was more severe for the invasive P. leniusculus (up to 32% decrease in range size). Moreover, the overlap between both crayfishes decreased by 13–16%, which may reduce the pressure upon the native A. pallipes. This study illustrates how SDMs can assist in management of endangered species over large spatial and temporal scales by identifying current and future areas of shared bioclimatic suitability and potential refugia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]