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Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations predicted to have once supported a similar assemblage of species and are found within both intact regions and human-dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6% of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear, spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Reducing the rate of global biodiversity loss is a major challenge facing humanity 1 , as the consequences of biological annihilation would be irreversible for humankind 2-4 . Although the ongoing degradation of ecosystems 5,6 and the extinction of species that comprise them 7,8 are now well-documented, little is known about the role that remaining wilderness areas have in mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Here we model the persistence probability of biodiversity, combining habitat condition with spatial variation in species composition, to show that retaining these remaining wilderness areas is essential for the international conservation agenda. Wilderness areas act as a buffer against species loss, as the extinction risk for species within wilderness communities is-on average-less than half that of species in non-wilderness communities. Although all wilderness areas have an intrinsic conservation value 9,10 , we identify the areas on every continent that make the highest relative contribution to the persistence of biodiversity. Alarmingly, these areas-in which habitat loss would have a more-marked effect on biodiversity-are poorly protected. Given globally high rates of wilderness loss 10 , these areas urgently require targeted protection to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity, alongside efforts to protect and restore more-degraded environments.

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species-area relationship, to estimate the effect of land-use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land-use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio-economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre-2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land-use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7-4.5 times compared to land-use-only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land-use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre-industrial times is observed., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

For many taxonomic groups, sparse information on the spatial distribution of biodiversity limits our capacity to answer a variety of theoretical and applied ecological questions. Modelling community-level attributes (α- and β-diversity) over space can help overcome this shortfall in our knowledge, yet individually, predictions of α- or β-diversity have their limitations. In this study, we present a novel approach to combining models of α- and β-diversity, with sparse survey data, to predict the community composition for all sites in a region. We applied our new approach to predict land snail community composition across New Zealand. As we demonstrate, these predictions of metacommunity composition have diverse potential applications, including predicting γ-diversity for any set of sites, identifying target areas for conservation reserves, locating priority areas for future ecological surveys, generating realistic compositional data for metacommunity models and simultaneously predicting the distribution of all species in a taxon consistent with known community diversity patterns., (© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.)