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We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'., (© 2017 The Authors.)

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes., (© 2015 The Author(s).)

The benefits of protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity have been questioned in the context of climate change because PAs are static, whereas the distributions of species are dynamic. Current PAs may, however, continue to be important if they provide suitable locations for species to colonize at their leading-edge range boundaries, thereby enabling spread into new regions. Here, we present an empirical assessment of the role of PAs as targets for colonization during recent range expansions. Records from intensive surveys revealed that seven bird and butterfly species have colonized PAs 4.2 (median) times more frequently than expected from the availability of PAs in the landscapes colonized. Records of an additional 256 invertebrate species with less-intensive surveys supported these findings and showed that 98% of species are disproportionately associated with PAs in newly colonized parts of their ranges. Although colonizing species favor PAs in general, species vary greatly in their reliance on PAs, reflecting differences in the dependence of individual species on particular habitats and other conditions that are available only in PAs. These findings highlight the importance of current PAs for facilitating range expansions and show that a small subset of the landscape receives a high proportion of colonizations by range-expanding species.

Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

Biodiversity-monitoring citizen science schemes provide valuable long-term monitoring data and benefit participants. There is increasing interest in engaging young people with nature. The British Trust for Ornithology's 'What's Under Your Feet?' project shows how schoolchildren can monitor soil invertebrates. Although individual projects like this are often funding- and time-limited, more generic long-term biodiversity-monitoring citizen science schemes may be equally suitable for school participation. Exemplar schemes from the UK are reviewed, and the potential advantages in school participation for teachers and students are highlighted in order to raise awareness of this potential opportunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land sparing has been proposed as a strategy to reconcile biodiversity conservation with agricultural production, with empirical studies on five continents indicating that most species would benefit if food demand was met through high‐yield farming combined with the protection or restoration of natural habitat.Most such studies come from landscapes covered by large areas of natural habitat and without a long history of intense human modification. However, much of Europe consists of human‐dominated landscapes, where biodiversity responses to land sparing may differ. To test this, we use estimates of bird population density in different (semi‐)natural habitats, and forecasts of population density in farmland habitat, to assess the future consequences for birds of land‐sparing scenarios in the United Kingdom.Our scenarios predict that whilst up to 18 of the 156 species assessed (predominantly farmland associated species) might decline in UK conservation status under land sparing, up to 35 UK bird species (mainly woodland and wetland species) might improve in status. This contrasts with a maximum of eight species likely to improve in conservation status without land sparing, with up to seven species deteriorating.Combining land sparing with demand management measures (reducing food waste and the consumption of animal products) led to more positive population changes under all scenarios.Synthesis and applications. Land sparing has the potential to benefit UK bird populations in aggregate but would likely have negative impacts on farmland bird species. These findings are likely to be applicable across human‐dominated landscapes beyond the UK, though effects on other taxa, implementation mechanisms and the sustainability of higher yields all require careful consideration. Land sparing has the potential to benefit UK bird populations in aggregate but would likely have negative impacts on farmland bird species. These findings are likely to be applicable across human‐dominated landscapes beyond the UK, though effects on other taxa, implementation mechanisms and the sustainability of higher yields all require careful consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Whilst there is growing evidence about the potential effectiveness of some aspects of climate change adaptation, the role for site-based management to increase the resilience of vulnerable populations to climate change has been little studied. Here, we test whether such management may reduce the negative effects of unfavourable weather upon a southern range margin Welsh black grouse Tetrao tetrix population that is vulnerable to climate change. The Welsh black grouse recovery programme funded a range of interventions that contributed to a 39% population increase over 10 years. One likely mechanism linking black grouse populations to climate change is the sensitivity of chicks to high June rainfall. We modelled the relationship between June rainfall and management interventions which aimed to increase breeding success (habitat management and lethal predator control) to test whether management could increase the resilience of black grouse populations to such unfavourable weather. Importantly, we found that the negative effect of June rainfall upon productivity was eliminated at sites where predator control occurred, and that productivity was maximised when predator and habitat management were combined. Active management therefore reduced the negative effects of June rainfall upon this vulnerable southern range margin black grouse population, although further work is required to quantify any limits to the success of such management. Active management should be considered as a tool for climate change adaptation in other vulnerable populations, particularly where there is limited potential for species to undergo climate-driven range changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public data archiving (PDA) is widely advocated as a means of achieving open data standards, leading to improved data preservation, increased scientific reproducibility, and transparency, as well as additional data use.Public data archiving was primarily conceived to archive data from short‐term, single‐purpose scientific studies. It is now more widely applied, including to large‐scale citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes which combine the efforts of volunteers with professional scientists.This may affect the financial security of such schemes by reducing income from data and analytical services. Communication between scheme organizers and researchers may be disrupted, reducing scientific quality and impeding scheme development. It may also have an impact on the participation of some volunteers.Synthesis and applications. In response to the challenges of public data archiving for citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes, the archive function of scheme organizations should be better recognized by those promoting open data principles. Increased financial support from the public sector or from commercial or academic data users may offset financial risk. Those in favour of public data archiving should do more to facilitate communication between nonscheme users and the originating schemes, while a more flexible approach to data archiving may be required to address potential impacts on volunteer participation. In response to the challenges of public data archiving for citizen science biodiversity recording and monitoring schemes, the archive function of scheme organizations should be better recognized by those promoting open data principles. Increased financial support from the public sector or from commercial or academic data users may offset financial risk. Those in favour of public data archiving should do more to facilitate communication between nonscheme users and the originating schemes, while a more flexible approach to data archiving may be required to address potential impacts on volunteer participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation of anthropogenic climate change involves deployments of renewable energy worldwide, including wind farms, which can pose a significant collision risk to volant animals. Most studies into the collision risk between species and wind turbines, however, have taken place in industrialized countries. Potential effects for many locations and species therefore remain unclear. To redress this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of recorded collisions between birds and bats and wind turbines within developed countries. We related collision rate to species-level traits and turbine characteristics to quantify the potential vulnerability of 9538 bird and 888 bat species globally. Avian collision rate was affected by migratory strategy, dispersal distance and habitat associations, and bat collision rates were influenced by dispersal distance. For birds and bats, larger turbine capacity (megawatts) increased collision rates; however, deploying a smaller number of large turbines with greater energy output reduced total collision risk per unit energy output, although bat mortality increased again with the largest turbines. Areas with high concentrations of vulnerable species were also identified, including migration corridors. Our results can therefore guide wind farm design and location to reduce the risk of large-scale animal mortality. This is the first quantitative global assessment of the relative collision vulnerability of species groups with wind turbines, providing valuable guidance for minimizing potentially serious negative impacts on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is already impacting ecological systems. Understanding how organisms respond to weather (short-term) and climate (long-term) variability, and the population and ecosystem-wide consequences of climate change, is a research priority. The appropriate use of information on past and potential future weather and climate conditions is crucial for such research, but uncertainties and biases in this information are seldom given full consideration, with important consequences for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the conservation of biodiversity. Here, we highlight three important neglected issues pertaining to the major applications of weather and climate information in ecological and biogeographical studies. These are as follows: (1) the uncertainty associated with historical weather and climate information; (2) the selection of ensembles of simulated future climate conditions derived from general circulation models ( GCM); and (3) the uncertainty and assumptions associated with downscaling GCM simulations to ecologically relevant spatial scales. Broadly, in order to improve the use of weather and climate information in ecological studies, we propose that ecologists must: (1) use weather and climate products that are appropriate for their intended purpose; (2) explore the consequences of uncertainty in these products for ecological conclusions; and (3) seek greater integration of ecological and climate research to create products that reflect both the requirements of ecologists and the limits of climatology. This will enable more effective research into the likely responses of ecological systems to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key aspect of monitoring regional changes in biodiversity is to quantify the temporal turnover in communities. Turnover has traditionally been assessed by observing range change. However, we are often interested in trends in biodiversity of large regions as opposed to single sites, as with Convention for Biological Diversity targets. Extinctions and colonizations tend to be rare events at the regional level; changes in species proportions estimated from spatio-temporal models of species abundance are then more sensitive measures of community change., We investigated three measures for quantifying turnover based on species proportions, and estimated how each varies across Great Britain using data from the British Trust for Ornithology's Breeding Bird Survey., All three measures identify high turnover associated with loss of biodiversity in the south-east of England. This seems to be driven by changes in the farmland bird community, and by turnover in the scarcer species of the woodland bird community. The measures also show evidence of high turnover in the west of Scotland; these changes may be linked to climate change, although precision in our measures for this region is relatively poor due to low survey effort., Policy implications. Turnover in ecological communities may be quantified by modelling species abundance, and measuring how resulting species proportions change over time. When used alongside estimated temporal trends in biodiversity, these can identify areas and communities showing greatest evidence for change. How, and indeed even whether, society should respond to such changes depends on further investigation into the causes of the changes, and the extent to which these are seen as undesirable and avoidable. For those communities with adequate survey data, we recommend that these methods augment the suite of measures used for routine assessment of change, hence acting as a more sensitive trigger to set in motion exploration of causes and consideration of adaptive actions to be taken by land managers and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Variation in biological communities is used to identify biodiversity responses to anthropogenic drivers, and to guide conservation responses. Often, such data are only available for a limited group of species, with uncertain applicability to unmonitored taxa. Objective: Using equivalent data on the community structure of two contrasting taxa, we examine spatial co-variation in both communities, and test the extent to which any associations may result from large-scale latitudinal patterns, variation in habitat-type, or other factors. Methods: Birds and butterflies were surveyed using standard methods across a stratified random sample of 1-km squares across the UK. Four measures of community structure were calculated and used to examine their association between the two taxa, before accounting for effects of latitude, habitat-type and observer. Results: Species richness, diversity and community specialisation were significantly correlated between birds and butterflies, but evenness was not. There were strong latitudinal gradients in bird community specialisation, and butterfly richness and diversity. Habitat diversity significantly affected bird communities, whilst butterfly evenness and specialisation was reduced on farmland and human-related habitats. Covariation in richness and diversity between taxa remained after including effects of latitude and habitat-type. Conclusions: Surrogacy approaches may be useful when considering fine-scale variation in species richness and diversity to inform site-based conservation and management decisions. However, limited covariance in evenness and specialisation metrics suggest that decisions based on the needs of rare or specialist species may be less relevant to other taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas ( PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, ●●, ●●-●●. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3·6% (compared with an observed decline of 1·2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity. Our 14th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation. A panel of 30 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 102 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation. The top 36 issues were discussed in person and online in September 2022 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria. Our 15 issues cover impacts from DNA-enabled biobatteries to submerged artificial light fisheries. Other emerging issues include increased demand for chitosan, accelerating upper ocean currents, and microbiome stewardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework calls for at least 30% of land and sea to be protected by 2030. Whilst there is growing evidence that protected areas can benefit biodiversity, to achieve the greatest possible gains from their expansion, we must understand how protected area quality impacts upon biodiversity metrics. We used UK BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey data and protected areas condition data from national Common Standards Monitoring, to test whether improving site condition (for which there are UK policy targets) would contribute to stated policy targets to increase species' abundance. After controlling for differences in climate, land cover, and elevation, we found a positive association between the proportion of favourable habitat and bird abundance trends in the UK, while in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland combined, the positive effect was also significantly greater than in unfavourable habitat. Conversely, we also found a negative effect of proportion of favourable habitat on bird abundance. There was no evidence that these relationships varied between conservation status or many of the traits considered, although there was some evidence that favourable condition was beneficial for habitat specialists, cold-adapted species, and varied by habitat. Our findings suggest that improving the condition of protected areas currently in unfavourable condition, will contribute to nature recovery as measured by species' abundance trends in some circumstances. This also suggests that achieving the "30 by 30" target without ensuring those protected areas are of sufficient quality, may not be sufficient to restore biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-species indicators are often used to assess biodiversity trends. By combining population trends across several species they summarise trends across a community. Composite indicators such as these are useful for examining general temporal patterns and may suggest important drivers of biodiversity change. However, they may also mask substantial spatial variation in population trends, particularly when they are calculated over large spatial regions. We produced spatially-explicit indicators for farmland and woodland bird communities in the UK and further separate these into trends for generalist and specialist species within each group. We found considerable spatial variation in the indicators, which is masked by indicators calculated at the national level. The farmland community indicator showed mostly positive trends in western areas and extensive declines in south-east England. The woodland community indicator showed a north–south divide, with increases in Scotland and northern England and stability in the southern regions. For both communities, indicator trends for specialist species were more negative than those for generalists. We found no significant difference in farmland community indicators between arable land and improved grassland. Woodland specialists had significantly more negative trends in broadleaf compared to coniferous woodlands, suggesting habitat-type is one of the drivers of changes in the woodland community. These spatial patterns in bird population trends may be used to highlight regional conservation priorities and identify where those may differ from the national scale. In combination with information about other environmental changes, they may also be used to develop hypotheses about potential drivers of change. We advocate that this approach is adopted for other taxa and geographical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]