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Environmental change is transforming ecological assemblages into new configurations, resulting in novel communities. We developed a robust methodology to detect novel communities, examine patterns of emergence, and quantify probabilities of local demographic turnover in transitions to and from novel communities. Using a global dataset of Cenozoic marine plankton communities, we found that the probability of local extinction, origination, and emigration during transitions to a novel community increased two to four times that of background community changes. Although rare, novel communities were five times more likely than chance to shift into another novel state. For marine plankton communities at a 100,000-year time grain, novel communities were sensitive to further extinctions and substantial community change., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Marine environments face acute pressures from human impacts, often resulting in substantial changes in community structure. On the inshore Great Barrier Reef (GBR), palaeoecological studies show the collapse of the previously dominant coral Acropora from the impacts of degraded water quality associated with European colonization. Even more dramatic impacts can result in the replacement of corals by fleshy macroalgae on modern reefs, but their past distribution is unknown because they leave no fossil record. Here, we apply DNA metabarcoding and high-throughput sequencing of the 18S rDNA gene on palaeoenvironmental DNA (aeDNA) derived from sediment cores at two sites on Pandora Reef (GBR), to enhance palaeoecological studies by incorporating key soft-bodied taxa, including macroalgae. We compared temporal trends in this aeDNA record with those of coral genera derived from macrofossils. Multivariate analysis of 12 eukaryotic groups from the aeDNA community showed wide variability over the past 750 years. The occurrence of brown macroalgae was negatively correlated only with the dominant coral at both sites. The occurrence of coralline and green macroalgae was positively correlated with only the dominant coral at one of the sites, where we also observed a significant association between the whole coral community and the occurrence of each of the three macroalgae groups. Our results demonstrate that reef sediments can provide a valuable archive for understanding the past distribution and occurrence of important soft-bodied reef dwellers. Combining information from fossils and aeDNA provides an enhanced understanding of temporal changes of reefs ecosystems at decadal to millennial timescales., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Exotic species are a growing global ecological threat; however, their overall effects are insufficiently understood. While some exotic species are implicated in many species extinctions, others can provide benefits to the recipient communities. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify and synthesize the ecological effects of 76 exotic marine species (about 6% of the listed exotics) on ten variables in marine communities. These species caused an overall significant, but modest in magnitude (as indicated by a mean effect size of g < 0.2), decrease in ecological variables. Marine primary producers and predators were the most disruptive trophic groups of the exotic species. Approximately 10% (that is, 2 out of 19) of the exotic species assessed in at least three independent studies had significant impacts on native species. Separating the innocuous from the disruptive exotic species provides a basis for triage efforts to control the marine exotic species that have the most impact, thereby helping to meet Aichi Biodiversity Target 9 of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Understanding how range-edge populations will respond to climate change is an urgent research priority. Here, we used a phylogenetic community ecology approach to examine how ecological and evolutionary processes shape biodiversity patterns of scleractinian corals at their high-latitude range limits in eastern Australia. We estimated phylogenetic signal in seven ecologically important functional traits and conducted tests of phylogenetic structure at local and regional scales using the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon indices (NTI) for the presence/absence and abundance data. Regional tests showed light phylogenetic clustering, indicating that coral species found in this subtropical-to-temperate transition zone are more closely related to each other than are species on the nearby, more northerly Great Barrier Reef. Local tests revealed variable patterns of phylogenetic clustering and overdispersion and higher than expected phylogenetic turnover among sites. In combination, these results are broadly consistent with the hierarchical filtering model, whereby species pass through a regional climatic filter based on their tolerances for marginal conditions and subsequently segregate into local assemblages according to the relative strength of habitat filtering and species interactions. Conservatism of tested traits suggests that corals will likely track their niches with climate change. Nevertheless, high turnover of lineages among sites indicates that range shifts will probably vary among species and highlights the vulnerability and conservation significance of high-latitude reefs., (© 2017 The Author(s).)

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals., (Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Although ecological assemblages frequently depart from neutral model predictions, these discrepancies have not been unambiguously attributed to neutral theory's core assumption: that community structure is primarily the result of chance variation in birth, death, speciation, and dispersal, rather than the manifestation of demographic differences among species. Using coral communities in Barbados from four time periods during the Pleistocene, we demonstrate that the neutral theory cannot explain coral community similarity distributions, species' regional abundance distributions, or their local occupancy. Furthermore, discrepancies between the neutral theory and the observed communities can be attributed to violation of the core assumption of species equivalence. In particular, species' variable growth rates are driving departures from neutral predictions. Our results reinforce an understanding of reef coral community assembly that invokes trade-offs in species' demographic strategies. The results further suggest that conservation management actions will fail if they are based on the neutral assumption that different coral species are equally able to create live coral cover in the shallow-water reef environment. These findings highlight the importance of developing biodiversity theory that can parsimoniously incorporate species differences in coral reef communities, rather than further elaborating neutral theory.

We assess species composition, assemblage structure and distribution of the benthic foraminiferal assemblages from diverse substrates in Moreton Bay, South-East Queensland, Australia. Analysis of 47 surface sediment samples revealed 69 species, three distinct foraminiferal assemblages and six sub-assemblages. The assemblages from the western Bay are characterized by stress tolerant taxa and the lowest diversity, whereas the assemblages from the eastern Bay are characterized by symbiont-bearing taxa and high diversity. We found a correlation between foraminiferal assemblages and substrate conditions that was indicative of strong environmental gradients (substrate type, water quality and salinity), from an urban-impacted assemblage in the westernmost part of the Bay, to a hyposaline, estuarine-influenced assemblage in the western Bay to a nearly normal marine to hypersaline assemblage in the eastern Bay. The FORAM Index was consistent with the changes in water and sediment quality gradient, from the western shoreline to the eastern Bay. Thus the foraminiferal assemblages of Moreton Bay make excellent bio-indicators of environmental changes in a subtropical, estuarine setting in eastern Australia., (Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Conservation priorities are calculated on the basis of species richness, endemism, and threats. However, areas ranked highly for these factors may not represent regions of maximal evolutionary potential. The relationship between geography and evolutionary innovation was analyzed in a dominant complex of Caribbean reef corals, in which morphological and genetic data concur on species differences. Based on geometric morphometrics of Pleistocene corals and genetically characterized modern colonies, we found that morphological disparity varies from the center to the edge of the Caribbean, and we show that lineages are static at well-connected central locations but split or fuse in edge zones where gene flow is limited. Thus, conservation efforts in corals should focus not only on the centers of diversity but also on peripheral areas of species ranges and population connectivity.

Hotspots of high species diversity are a prominent feature of modern global biodiversity patterns. Fossil and molecular evidence is starting to reveal the history of these hotspots. There have been at least three marine biodiversity hotspots during the past 50 million years. They have moved across almost half the globe, with their timing and locations coinciding with major tectonic events. The birth and death of successive hotspots highlights the link between environmental change and biodiversity patterns. The antiquity of the taxa in the modern Indo-Australian Archipelago hotspot emphasizes the role of pre-Pleistocene events in shaping modern diversity patterns.