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We present the idea of using potential infringements on annual allowable harvest targets as an approach to estimate threats from invasive species to the forest products sector. The approach uses present-day harvest levels as a reference level to estimate when and where the impact of a nonnative forest pest could become economically damaging. We use a generic model that simulates spread and damage by nonnative invasive species, basic harvest and forest growth through time. The concept is illustrated with a case study of a new nonnative invasive pest, Sirex noctilio Fabricius on pine resources in eastern Canada. Impacts of invasion on wood supply, in particular, the point at which present-day harvest levels are not attainable, were identified for 77 non-overlapping geographical regions that delimit the primary wood supply areas around large mills and wood processing facilities in eastern Canada. The results identify the minimum area of a pest outbreak that could trigger harvest shortages (approximately 12.5–14 M ha of pine forests in Ontario and Quebec). Beyond this level, the amount of host resource available for harvesting in any given year declines rapidly. The failure to sustain broad-scale harvest targets may be an attractive and intuitive indicator for policy makers and regulators interested in developing control and “slow-the-spread” programs for non-native forest pests. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study explores the economic feasibility of fossil fuel substitution with biomass from short-rotation willow plantations as an option for greenhouse heating in southern Ontario, Canada. We assess the net displacement value of fossil fuel biomass combustion systems with an integrated purpose-grown biomass production enterprise. Key project parameters include greenhouse size, heating requirements, boiler capital costs and biomass establishment and management costs. Several metrics have been used to examine feasibility including net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, and the minimum or break-even prices for natural gas and heating oil for which the biomass substitution operations become financially attractive. Depending on certain key assumptions, internal rates of return ranged from 11–14% for displacing heating oil to 0–4% for displacing natural gas with woody biomass. The biomass heating projects have payback periods of 10 to >22 years for substituting heating oil and 18 to >22 years for replacing a natural gas. Sensitivity analyses indicate that fossil fuel price and efficiency of the boiler heating system are critical elements in the analyses and research on methods to improve growth and yield and reduce silviculture costs could have a large beneficial impact on the feasibility of this type of bioenergy enterprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study explores the economic feasibility of biomass for bioenergy from fast-growing hybrid poplar plantations established on agricultural lands in Canada. Using a spatial bio-economic afforestation feasibility model, we report break-even supply costs for two broad scenarios: first with only merchantable fibre having value and secondly, a “fibre-plus-carbon” scenario with carbon sequestered valued at $5t−1 CO2−e. Five levels of biomass processing capacities were examined in each scenario (90, 230, 450, 1500 and 3000ktonnes per year) using 241 settlements across Canada as potential locations for bioenergy facilities. Supply costs here include plantation establishment, maintenance, agricultural land rent, harvest and transportation to nearest community. In relative terms three geographic regions had the most promise: the northern Prairies, central Ontario and parts of the Maritime Provinces. Smaller-scale bioenergy projects were attractive for Eastern Canada (Ontario and the Maritimes). The Prairie Provinces were most attractive for larger facilities with break-even supply costs exceeding 5$GJ−1. Adding carbon incentives at 5$t−1 CO2 decreases average costs of delivered biomass by 0.57–1.38$GJ−1; however, these cost estimates are still above the current delivered costs of sub-bituminous coal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study explores the economic attractiveness of afforestation as a strategy for the joint production of fibre, carbon storage and biosolids (treated municipal sewage sludge) disposal for municipalities in Southern and Central Ontario, Canada. We use a spatial, stochastic model, the Canadian Forest Service Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM), to simulate a range of spatial biosolids application scenarios in hybrid poplar afforestation projects. Results suggest that such joint afforestation strategies could be financially attractive. Significant cost savings can be expected through decreases in transportation distances and avoided waste disposal fees. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the effects of variations in critical model parameters on net present values. Our findings indicate that waste disposal savings from application of biosolids on hybrid poplar plantations combined with incentives for landowners to sequester carbon can easily compete with agricultural land rental values in some regions of Ontario. Social acceptance of this kind of activity, however, may be an impediment to adoption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]