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Various technologies have been disseminated to digest organic waste, capture biogas and provide sustainable energy. Despite numerous efforts to diffuse biogas technology in Brazil, uptake remains slow. This may be due to low recognition among key actors that support the technology with resources in a wider Innovation System (IS). We explore how actors view the existence of this IS in Brazil and its fragmented context. To investigate actor views and perceptions, we employ a factor analysis and an item response model to map out system functionality. The analysis unveiled the existence of a non-balanced IS, awaiting to accelerate its expansion phase given current entrepreneurial activities, but remains impeded by limited resources and legitimacy. Actor responses indicate that for the expansion phase to accelerate, energy markets need to be established via state and federal support. These markets demand support from utility companies who influence the IS across multiple facets (e.g., public tender, tariffs, energy auctions). Ultimately, the expansion phase is hinged upon the creation of a national policy that includes short-term objectives for biogas shared between stakeholders and an outlined role for utility companies to integrate renewable energy sources. • Energy quotas must outline biogas participation and increase actor-representation. • Utility companies must partner with smaller producers to finance technology. • Revision of energy tariffs permit firms to support TIS development. • Scales developed with IRT direct system builders where to disseminate knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, concerns have grown about increased demand for energy and waste accumulation in Brazil. Technologies that digest waste and capture biogas in the process have been presented as an avenue to address these two issues. Brazil’s biogas potential has been studied extensively, however, less investigation has estimated production across time. A system dynamics model (SDM) was developed to estimate biogas yield over a 30-year period from municipal waste, feedstock, vinasse and waste water routes. The SDM was parameterized using open databases and literature, with a focus on technology diffusion. The analysis indicates production may reach 5.3 million cubic meters/day of methane by 2030 to 19.7 million in 2050. Exchange of information (via word of mouth) exponentially increased technology adoption rates, suggesting that production can be supported by disseminating information that promotes the environmental and economic benefits of transforming biomass into energy. Slow growth was attributed to an absence of policies that incentivized production and its research and development programs. These two hurdles presented challenges for adopters to overcome high upfront costs. Future efforts should focus on the solid waste and feedstock routes given that they assumed the largest production and fast growing population of adopters, respectively. Radical and integrated policies are required to reach substantial biogas yields from four routes to address environmental and energy concerns for Brazil. • Municipal waste has the highest potential to produce biogas. • The feedstock sector will be the fastest biogas production grower in the future. • A national policy before 2025 is advised. • Finding a specific levelized energy cost for biogas is likely to incentivize production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]