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Gajewski offers a formal comment on Griffiths et al. (2017), a paper that explored how microclimates and their varying ice cover regimes on lakes and ponds in Arctic regions modified the diatom assemblage responses to recent warming. One of Gajewski’s main criticisms is that the microclimate classification scheme used in Griffiths et al. (2017) is merely anecdotal; a claim which ignores the value of observational evidence and misunderstands the frequency that each site was visited or surveyed. We clarify that the study sites were visited multiple times via recurrent aerial surveys and ground observations dating back to the 1970s, which supports our microclimate classification scheme. Many of Gajewski’s claims regarding climate, catchment characteristics, and ice melting properties from field locations he has not visited were refuted by veteran Arctic scientists with long-term field experience in these regions. In addition, Gajewski makes several criticisms concerning radioisotopic dating, core chronology, sediment mixing, diagenesis, and preservation of bioindicators that relate more to general paleolimnological assumptions than to conclusions reached by Griffiths et al. (2017). Research from the 1980s and 1990s, when scientific consensus on these issues was first reached, readily show that the methodologies and data interpretation of Griffiths et al. (2017) are sound. We appreciate the opportunity to expound on the finer details of the Griffiths et al. (2017) paper, work based on field research by the study’s co-authors spanning almost three decades, with additional observations from colleagues dating back to the 1970s. We address Gajewski’s criticisms with relevant literature, expert statements, and a few clarifying comments.

The expansion of urban ecosystems and climate change, both outcomes of massive lifestyle changes, contribute to a series of side effects such as environmental deterioration, spread of diseases, increased greenhouse gas emissions and introduction of invasive species. In the case of the Athens metropolitan area, an invasive mosquito species—the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)–has spread widely in the last decade. This spread is favoured within urban environments and is also affected by changing climatic trends. The Asian tiger mosquito is accompanied by risks of mosquito-borne diseases, greater nuisance levels, and increased expenses incurring for its confrontation. The main aims of this paper are (i) to estimate the various costs associated with the control of this invasive species, as well as its health and nuisance impacts, (ii) to evaluate the level of citizens’ well-being from averting these impacts and (iii) to record citizens’ and experts’ perceptions regarding alternative control measures. Evidence shows that experts tend to place a high value on mosquito control when associated with serious health risks, while citizens are more sensitive and concerned about the environmental impacts of control methods. The synthesis of results produced by the current study could act as a preliminary guide for the estimation of societal welfare from the confrontation of similar problems in the context of a complex ecosystem., Author summary This paper is based on several years’ collaboration among researchers from various disciplines, key health policy makers and stakeholders in an attempt to evaluate the economic dimensions related to the presence of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) and the challenges of tackling mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Greece and Southern Europe. Similar studies have been conducted and continue to be published in Europe and the USA examining the socioeconomic benefit from the implementation of relevant control and prevention strategies. These studies conclude that there are significant benefits related both to the reduction of nuisance levels and the reduction of the health risks posed by various mosquito species. In our case, the application of an updated economic analysis on the effectiveness of relevant public control and prevention programs provides essential information for public health decision-making, bearing in mind the significant restructuring of the public sector and the fiscal crisis apparent in the European South.

Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. In this paper, we investigate the long-term impact that an intensive one-year university course had on individual carbon emissions by surveying students at least five years after having taken the course. A majority of course graduates reported pro-environmental decisions (i.e., type of car to buy, food choices) that can be attributed to experiences gained in the course. Furthermore, our carbon footprint analysis demonstrates that for the average course graduate, these decisions reduced their individual carbon emissions by 2.86 tons of CO2 per year. Focus group interviews identify that course graduates have developed a strong personal connection to climate change solutions, and this is realized in their daily behaviors and through their professional careers. The paper discusses in more detail the specific components of the course that are believed to be most impactful, and it shares preliminary outcomes from similar curriculum designs that are being used with K-12 students. Our analysis also demonstrates that if similar education programs were applied at scale, the potential reductions in carbon emissions would be of similar magnitude to other large-scale mitigation strategies such as rooftop solar or electric vehicles.

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally., Author summary Unsafe water supplies, limited sanitation and poor hygiene are still important causes of infectious disease (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis), especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases. Therefore, scientists are continuously developing new analysis methods to investigate the impacts of weather and climate on infectious disease, and particularly, on those associated with water. As these methods are based on an imperfect representation of the real world, they are inevitably subjected to many challenges. Based on a systematic review of the literature, we identified seven important challenges for scientists who develop new analysis methods.

This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring the clustered data structure on allometric models. Clustered data, in the form of multiple trees sampled from multiple forest stands is commonly used to develop biomass allometric models. Of 102 reviewed papers published between 2012 and 2016 that reported biomass allometric models, 84 (82%) have used a clustered sampling design. However, in as many as 80% of these, the clustered data structure was ignored, potentially violating the independence assumption in ordinary least squares methods. The consequences of ignoring clustered data structure were empirically validated using two clustered biomass datasets (of 110 and 220 trees, with the cluster size of 5 and 10 trees respectively). We showed that when Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure returned underestimated standard errors, affecting further the confidence interval and t-test results. The underestimation level depended on ICC (which shows the variance proportion that was caused by the forest stand) and on cluster size (the number of trees sampled from one forest stand). We also showed that using first-order autocorrelation tests, such as the traditional Durbin-Watson statistic, to detect the autocorrelation due to clustered structure could be misleading as the test may show lack of autocorrelation even though ICC is different from zero. In conclusion, when ICC is higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure yields over-confident biomass predictions (due to underestimated confidence interval) and/or incorrect research conclusions (due to overestimated evidence against null hypothesis in t-test). Therefore, using a modelling approach that accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data is highly recommended when any form of clustering can be identified, even if the autocorrelation is not significant.

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective., PLoS ONE, 12 (10), ISSN:1932-6203

One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999-2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions.

Citizen science is a research practice that relies on public contributions of data. The strong recognition of its educational value combined with the need for novel methods to handle subsequent large and complex data sets raises the question: Is citizen science effective at science? A quantitative assessment of the contributions of citizen science for its core purpose – scientific research – is lacking. We examined the contribution of citizen science to a review paper by ornithologists in which they formulated ten central claims about the impact of climate change on avian migration. Citizen science was never explicitly mentioned in the review article. For each of the claims, these ornithologists scored their opinions about the amount of research effort invested in each claim and how strongly the claim was supported by evidence. This allowed us to also determine whether their trust in claims was, unwittingly or not, related to the degree to which the claims relied primarily on data generated by citizen scientists. We found that papers based on citizen science constituted between 24 and 77% of the references backing each claim, with no evidence of a mistrust of claims that relied heavily on citizen-science data. We reveal that many of these papers may not easily be recognized as drawing upon volunteer contributions, as the search terms “citizen science” and “volunteer” would have overlooked the majority of the studies that back the ten claims about birds and climate change. Our results suggest that the significance of citizen science to global research, an endeavor that is reliant on long-term information at large spatial scales, might be far greater than is readily perceived. To better understand and track the contributions of citizen science in the future, we urge researchers to use the keyword “citizen science” in papers that draw on efforts of non-professionals.

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.

This paper utilizes spatial econometric reenactments to examine the geographic effects of different types of environmentally friendly power on corban discharges. The example covers 31 nations in the Asia-Pacific district during the time frame 2000 to 2018. The spatial connection in the model was affirmed by symptomatic testing, and the spatial Durbin model was picked as the last model. Results show that Gross domestic product per capita, receptiveness to business sectors, unfamiliar direct venture, energy force, and urbanization critically affect CO2 emanations. In correlation, just wind and sunlight-based energy have added to a generous abatement in ozone harming substance emanations in nations over the long run. In contrast, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal energy discoveries have been irrelevant. A cross-sectional examination worldview delineated that nations with more elevated sunlight-based energy yield have higher CO2 outflows, while nations with lower levels have lower CO2 emanations. The presence of spatial impacts in the model gave off an impression of the negative consequences for homegrown CO2 outflows of Gross domestic product per capita and exchange transparency of adjoining nations. Furthermore, energy power and higher creation of sustainable power in adjoining nations will prompt lower homegrown CO2 outflows.

Using microdata from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2010), this paper investigates whether there are green returns to education in China, where educational attainment promotes pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors. We establish causality by exploiting the exogenous variation induced by the implementation of the Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) in China. We find evidence that educational attainment is associated with higher levels of pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and these estimates are robust to various robustness checks. Further analysis reveals that the acquisition of environmental knowledge is the channel that drives the effect of education on pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors. Finally, the effects of education are heterogeneous across individuals.

Cities are increasingly promoting walkability to tackle climate change, improve urban quality of life, and address socioeconomic inequities that auto-oriented development tends to exacerbate, prompting a need for predictive pedestrian flow models. This paper implements a novel network-based pedestrian flow model at a property-level resolution in the City of Melbourne. Data on Melbourne’s urban form, land-uses, amenities, and pedestrian walkways as well as weather conditions are used to predict pedestrian flows between different land-use pairs, which are subsequently calibrated against hourly observed pedestrian counts from automated sensors. Calibration allows the model extrapolate pedestrian flows on all streets throughout the city center based on reliable baseline observations, and to forecast how new development projects will change existing pedestrian flows. Longitudinal data availability also allows us to validate how accurate such predictions are by comparing model results to actual pedestrian counts observed in following years. Updating the built-environment data annually, we (1) test the accuracy of different calibration techniques for predicting foot-traffic on the city’s streets in subsequent years; (2) assess how changes in the built environment affect changes in foot-traffic; (3) analyze which pedestrian origin-destination flows explain observed foot-traffic during three peak weekday periods; and (4) assess the stability of model predictions over time. We find that annual changes in the built environment have a significant and measurable impact on the spatial distribution of Melbourne’s pedestrian flows. We hope this novel framework can be used by planners to implement “pedestrian impact assessments” for newly planned developments, which can complement traditional vehicular “traffic impact assessments”.

Maintaining the functional integrity of ecosystems as climate pressures exceed natural rates of adaptation requires new knowledge and new approaches to governance and management. However, research into management interventions to assist regional ecosystem adaptation has generated both scientific and ethical debate. This paper reviews experience to date in order to identify the challenges and opportunities for assisted regional ecosystem adaptation and reflect on the implications for ongoing adaptation research. The review was informed by a database and structured analysis of some 450 reports, peer-reviewed manuscripts and books on participation theory and experience with novel technology development and assisted ecosystem adaptation. We identified five classes of challenges to adaptation research: 1) scientific conflicts and debates over the “facts”, 2) social challenges, 3) governance challenges, 4) epistemic challenges, and 5) ontological conflicts. We argue that engagement strategies linked to the multiple objectives of adaptation research provide opportunities for ecosystem adaptation.

Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests.

Seabirds are one of the most at-risk groups, with many species in decline. In Scandinavia, seabirds are at a heightened risk of extinction due to accelerated global warming. Norway is home to significant portion of the European Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations, but Norwegian populations have declined significantly during the last decades. In this paper we use biometric data from modern and archaeologicalF.arcticaspecimens to investigate patterns in body size variation over time of this iconic species. We aimed to set out a baseline for our archaeological comparison by firstly investigating whether modern subspecies ofF.arcticaare reflected in the osteological characters and are enough to distinguish subspecies from the bones alone. We then investigated if archaeological remains ofF.arcticadiffer in size from the modern subspecies. Our results show that the subspeciesFratercula arctica naumanniwas distinctly larger than the other subspecies. However,Fratercula arctica arcticaandFratercula arctica grabaewere difficult to separate based on size. This generally supports ornithological observations. Post-MedievalF.arcticabones from Måsøy were similar to modernF.a.arcticapopulations. The mid-Holocene remains from Dollsteinhola overlaps with the modern size ranges ofF.a.arcticaandF.a.grabaebut are generally shorter and more robust. Dollsteinhola is located close to the borders of the modern breeding ranges of bothF.a.arcticaandF.a.grabae. We consider it therefore likely that given the mid-Holocene climatic oscillations, breeding ranges of the two subspecies shifted north or south accordingly. However, this does not explain the different proportions of the Dollsteinhola specimens. Our data provide the first evidence for shifting distributions in ancient Atlantic Puffins and represent the first osteological analysis ofFratercula arcticasubspecies.

China’s carbon emission performance has significant regional heterogeneity. Identified the sources of carbon emission performance differences and the influence of various driving factors in China’s eight economic regions accurately is the premise for realizing China’s carbon emission reduction goals. Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017, the super-efficiency SBM model and Malmquist model are constructed in this paper to measure regional carbon emission performance’s static and dynamic changes. After that, the Theil index is used to distinguish the impact of inter-regional and intra-regional differences on different regions’ carbon emissions performance. Finally, by introducing the Tobit model, the effect of various driving factors on carbon emission performance differences is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that: (1) There are significant differences in different regions’ carbon emission performance, but the overall carbon emission performance presents an upward fluctuation trend. Malmquist index decomposition results show substantial differences in technology progress index and technology efficiency index in different regions, leading to significant carbon emission performance differences. (2) Overall, inter-regional differences contribute the most to the overall carbon emission performance, up to more than 80%. Among them, the inter-regional and intra-regional differences in ERMRYR contributed significantly. (3) Through Tobit regression analysis, it is found that residents’ living standards, urbanization level, ecological development degree, and industrial structure positively affect carbon emission performance. On the contrary, energy intensity presents an apparent negative correlation on carbon emission performance. Therefore, to improve the carbon emission performance, we should put forward targeted suggestions according to the characteristics of different regional development stages, regional carbon emission differences, and influencing driving factors.

A key challenge of environmental planning is to craft recommendations for future sustainable spatial development amid ubiquitous uncertainties. This paper aims to explore how different data uncertainties, usually unknown to the planner, may influence environmental planning recommendations. We apply a case study-based approach, in which we provide three illustrative examples of how data with different kinds and levels of uncertainty affect environmental assessments and, by that, the decision-support provided by environmental planning. The cases stem from different spatial levels in Germany and consider ‘Regional soil-based climate change mitigation’ in the region of Hannover, ‘State-wide habitat conservation siting’ in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, and ‘National renewable energy planning’. Based on the three examples, we discuss implications for planning practice and derive recommendations for further research. The three cases studies illustrate the substantial effects of data uncertainty on environmental assessments and planning recommendations derived from those results. We identify four problem constellations of dealing with data uncertainty in environmental planning that relate to the severeness of uncertainty impacts, the responsibility of the decision-maker, and the kinds of impacts that wrong decisions may have. We close with recommendations for further research, among others to develop robust and pragmatic methods for identifying the uncertainty levels in environmental data and assessment results.

23 Pags.- 8 Tabls.- 2 Figs. © 2021 Jebari et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited., Temperate grassland soils store significant amounts of carbon (C). Estimating how much livestock grazing and manuring can influence grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) is key to improve greenhouse gas grassland budgets. The Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model, although originally developed and parameterized to model the turnover of organic C in arable topsoil, has been widely used, with varied success, to estimate SOC changes in grassland under different climates, soils, and management conditions. In this paper, we hypothesise that RothC-based SOC predictions in managed grasslands under temperate moist climatic conditions can be improved by incorporating small modifications to the model based on existing field data from diverse experimental locations in Europe. For this, we described and evaluated changes at the level of: (1) the soil water function of RothC, (2) entry pools accounting for the degradability of the exogenous organic matter (EOM) applied (e.g., ruminant excreta), (3) the month-on-month change in the quality of C inputs coming from plant residues (i.e above-, below-ground plant residue and rhizodeposits), and (4) the livestock trampling effect (i.e., poaching damage) as a common problem in areas with higher annual precipitation. In order to evaluate the potential utility of these changes, we performed a simple sensitivity analysis and tested the model predictions against averaged data from four grassland experiments in Europe. Our evaluation showed that the default model’s performance was 78% and whereas some of the modifications seemed to improve RothC SOC predictions (model performance of 95% and 86% for soil water function and plant residues, respectively), others did not lead to any/or almost any improvement (model performance of 80 and 46% for the change in the C input quality and livestock trampling, respectively). We concluded that, whereas adding more complexity to the RothC model by adding the livestock trampling would actually not improve the model, adding the modified soil water function and plant residue components, and at a lesser extent residues quality, could improve predictability of the RothC in managed grasslands under temperate moist climatic conditions., We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Fundación Cándido de Iturriaga y Maria del Dañobeitia, Juan de la Cierva and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action (RIA) through the project “Innovation for sustainable sheep and Goat production in Europe (iSAGE)” undergrant agreement No 679302. BC3 is supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2018-2021 program and by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through BC3 María de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714. Agustin del Prado is financed by the programme Ramon y Cajal from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (RYC2017-22143). María Almagro was supported by the Juan de la Cierva Program (grant IJCI-2015- 23500). F

This paper explores whether efficacy beliefs can alter the relationship between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors, controlling for climate change beliefs and socio-demographics. For this purpose, we used data from 23 countries that participated in the European Social Survey Round 8 (N = 44 387). Worry about climate change, personal efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy were each associated with personal energy-saving behaviors concerning either energy curtailment or energy efficiency. The results further show that outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and both types of energy behaviors. Worry was more strongly related to energy curtailment behaviors among those with high levels of personal and collective outcome expectancy. A similar pattern was found for energy efficiency behaviors, which were more strongly predicted by worry about climate change when combined with high levels of collective outcome expectancy. These findings are relevant for climate change communication, especially informational campaigns aiming to lower overall household energy use. publishedVersion

Many recently published papers have investigated the spatial and temporal manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP climate event at regional and global scales. However, questions with regard to the potential drivers of the associated climate change remain open. Here, we investigate the interaction between Atlantic and Mediterranean climate forcing on the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula during the mid- to late Holocene using compound-specific hydrogen isotopes from fossil leaf waxes preserved in marine sediments. Variability of hydrogen isotope values in the study area is primarily related to changes in the precipitation source and indicates three phases of increased Mediterranean sourced precipitation from 5450 to 5350 cal. BP, from 5150 to 4300 cal. BP including a short-term interruption around 4800 cal. BP, and from 3400 to 3000 cal. BP interrupted around 3200 cal. BP. These phases are in good agreement with times of prevailing positive modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and reduced storm activity in the Western Mediterranean suggesting that the NAO was the dominant modulator of relative variability in precipitation sources. However, as previously suggested other modes such as the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) may have altered this overall relationship. In this regard, a decrease in Mediterranean moisture source coincident with a rapid reduction in warm season precipitation during the 4.2 ka BP event at the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula might have been related to negative WeMO conditions.

Knowledge of the recruitment of dominant forest species is a key aspect for forest conservation and the ecosystem services they provide. In this paper, we address how the simultaneous action of climate change and the intensity of land use in the past influence the recruitment of a forest species that depends on the provision of nurse plants to recruit. We compared the number of saplings (up to 15 years old) and juveniles (16 to 50 years old) of Quercus ilex in 17, 5.3 ha plots in the Iberian System (eastern Spain). We used a gradient of past deforestation intensity crossed with two levels of average annual precipitation, one of them at the lower limit of the species' precipitation niche (semi-arid) and the other at the optimum (sub-humid). We also examined the association between recruits and nurse plants and the effect on this association of plot-scale factors, such as seed abundance (reproductive Q. ilex), microsites (nurse species and soil availability), and large herbivores. The increase in aridity in the last decades has drastically reduced the recruitment of new individuals in the forests of Q. ilex located in the lower limit of their precipitation niche, regardless of the intensity of past deforestation that they suffered. Recruitment in these climatic conditions depends almost exclusively on large trees and shrubs whose abundance may also be limited by aridity. The lack of regeneration questions the future of these populations, as the number of individuals will decrease over time despite the strong resistance of adult trees to disturbance and drought., This work was supported by Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de España, CGL2013-42213-R, to Dr Esther Bochet; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and European Regional Development Fund, RTI2018-095037-B-I00 to EB; Conselleria d'Educació, Investigació, Cultura i Esport, PROMETEO 2016/021 to PG-F. The CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative gave support of the publication fee through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI).

Rice production in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (MRD) is endangered by sea-level rise and an associated increase in the incidence of salinity intrusion. This paper examines the diffusion of salt tolerant rice varieties in the MRD that were promoted through Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (CURE) activities. Factors associated with adoption of CURE-related varieties are estimated using a random utilty model and a dataset of 800 farm households with rice fields in salinity prone areas of the MRD. Results suggest that there has been widespread adoption of CURE-related varieties in salinity-prone areas. Further, multivariate analysis reveals that environment and location characteristics, rather than household characteristics, are the most important determinants of adoption. In particular, CURE-related varieties are more likely to be adopted in high-salinity-risk areas that are not protected by salinity barrier gates. Neighbhors' adoption decisions also strongly influence household decisions to adopt CURE-related varieties. The contracting of mechanization, particularly for land preparation and harvest, requires the coordination of village households in timing of planting, harvest and varietal duration. This coordination appears to extend to choice of CURE-related varieties. Finally, CURE-related varieties and other varieties generate similar net revenues in a year with low salinity exposure, suggesting that CURE-related varieties are a low-cost insurance policy against salinity inundation in high risk areas. Combined, these results highlight the need to address complex factors beyond current economic profits, like environment, community choices, and risk mitigation, when designing technologies and policies that support farmer adaptation to climatic change. BM -1 International Fund for Agricultural Development Published version BM -1 International Fund for Agricultural Development https://www.ifad.org/en/The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.

Southern African cities face several challenges including management of rapid urbanization, rising populations, expanding informal settlements; adequate water and other service provision, and a host of governance challenges. Climate change and variability add a compounding effect to this complex, multi stressor context. Addressing the complexity requires an understanding of urban ecosystems functioning and interactions amongst the built and natural environment (climate) and human systems. In this paper we argue that learning is essential for cities to be resilient to current and future challenges. We profile the Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL) project which contributed towards climate resilient development by providing relevant climate information for decision-making at the city regional scale in southern Africa. Following FRACTAL’s city-to-city learning approach of sharing good practices, knowledge and experiences framed around transdisciplinary research, the study cities of Harare, Lusaka, Windhoek and Durban conducted city learning exchange visits between 2017 and 2018. We used a mixed methods approach to collect and analyze historical climate and hydrological data and current socio-economic and development data among the cities. A qualitative, in-depth, case study comparative analysis was used to identify similarities and differences as well as lessons drawn from the learning process during the city exchanges and these were complimented by desktop studies. Results showed water scarcity, large informal settlements, reliance on external water and energy sources, inadequate protection of ecologically sensitive resources and service provision as some of the common complications in the cities. Several lessons and transferable practices learnt from the cities included effective water conservation and waste management and the use of public-private partnerships in Windhoek, community engagements in Durban and Lusaka while lessons on decisive leadership in dealing with informal settlements emanated from Harare’s limited informal settlements. Lastly, Durban’s Adaptation Charter and integrated climate planning provided lessons for biodiversity protection and mainstreaming climate change at city governance level. While we recognize that cities are context-specific we consider these good practices as being broadly transferable to other southern African cities. We conclude that social, experiential and structured learning can be an innovative way of multi-stakeholder engagement and a useful approach to increase city resilience planning across southern Africa and cities that face similar developmental challenges.

Anecdotal evidence from philanthropic fundraisers shows that virtual reality (VR) technology increases empathy and can influence people toward pro-environmental behavior. Non-profit organizations are increasingly marketing their causes using virtual reality and they report increased donations when VR technology is employed. In VR, users are immersed in situations intended to feel more like the real world through technology, such as 360° video screened through 3D headsets that block out visual and auditory distractions. The framing of the message as either positive or negative has long shown to have an effect on behavior, although consensus on the impact of framing has not been reached in relation to encouraging contributions to public goods. This paper focuses on field experiments used to investigate the effects of varying degrees of visual immersion and positive versus negative message framing on respondents’ contributions to a conservation charity. Participants were exposed to a five-minute underwater film about coral reefs and the importance of protecting them. We employed a 2×2 experimental design using 3D head-mounted displays comparing 360° film footage vs. unidirectional film and a positive message vs. a negative message. After watching the film, each participant completed a short questionnaire and had the opportunity to donate to a marine conservation charity. In addition, we tested a control treatment where no video was observed. The video was filmed in Indonesia which is host to some of the world’s most biodiverse reefs that are under great threat from human activity. We also conducted the study in Indonesia, sampling a total of 1006 participants from the Bogor city area and tourists on the island of Gili Trawangan - which is popular for scuba diving and snorkeling. We find significant differences in observed behavior and reported emotions between all treatments compared to the control condition. Among the tourist sample, we find significant differences between the 360° film with a negative message which garnered significantly larger average donation amounts compared to the unidirectional film with both positive and negative framing. Overall, we can infer from these studies that virtual reality is an effective way to raise awareness of environmental threats and encourage behavioral action, especially when tailored to target groups. New technology, such as the VR head-mounted display, is highly effective at attracting interest which is an important point to encourage organizations to invest in new technologies.

Climate changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) had significant consequences in human eco-dynamics across Europe. Among the most striking impacts are the demographic contraction of modern humans into southern refugia and the potential formation of a population bottleneck. In Iberia and southern France transformations also included the occurrence of significant technological changes, mostly marked by the emergence of a diverse set of bifacially-shaped stone projectiles. The rapid dissemination of bifacial technologies and the geographical circumscription of specific projectile morphologies within these regions have been regarded as evidence for: (1) the existence of a system of long-distance exchange and social alliance networks; (2) the organization of human groups into cultural facies with well-defined stylistic territorial boundaries. However, the degree and modes in which cultural transmission have occurred within these territories, and how it may have influenced other domains of the adaptive systems, remains largely unknown. Using southern Iberia as a case-study, this paper presents the first quantitative approach to the organization of lithic technology and its relationship to hunter-gatherers' territorial organization during the LGM. Similarities and dissimilarities in the presence of morphological and metric data describing lithic technologies are used as a proxy to explore modes and degrees of cultural transmission. Statistical results show that similarities in technological options are dependent on the chronology and geographical distance between sites and corroborate previous arguments for the organization of LGM settlement in Southern Iberia into discrete eco-cultural facies. STSM COST action (ref. COST-STSM-TD0902-10855); FCT, contract ref. DL 57/2016/CP1361/ CT0026. Work at Vale Boi is funded by the project ALG-01-0145-FEDER-27833 - PTDC/HAR-ARQ/27833/2017. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Vulnerability to climate change is highly dynamic, varying between and within communities over different timescales. This paper draws upon complex adaptive systems thinking to develop an approach for capturing, understanding, and monitoring climate vulnerability in a case study from northern Canada, focusing on Inuit food systems. In the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, we followed 10 hunters over a 2-year period, asking them to document their harvesting activities and discuss their lived experience of harvesting under changing environmental and societal conditions. GPS monitoring and participatory mapping sessions were used to document 23,996km of trails (n = 409), with conversational bi-weekly semi-structured interviews and secondary instrumental weather data used to contextualise climate change within a nexus of other socioeconomic, cultural, and political stressors that also affect harvesting. Our results demonstrate that climate change has considerable potential to affect harvesting activities, particularly when its impacts manifest as anomalous/extreme events. However, climate change impacts are not necessarily the most salient issues affecting harvesting on a day-to-day basis. Instead, factors relating to economics (particularly financial capital and the wage-based economy), social networks, and institutions are found to have a greater influence, either as standalone factors with cascading effects or when acting synchronously to augment the impacts of environmental change.

Agri-food systems are besieged by malnutrition, yield gaps, and climate vulnerability, but integrated, research-based responses in public policy, agricultural, value chains, and finance are constrained by short-termism and zero sum thinking. As they respond to current and emerging agri-food system challenges, decision makers need new tools that steer toward multi-sector, evidence-based collaboration. To support national agri-food system policy processes, the Integrated Agri-food System Initiative (IASI) methodology was developed and validated through case studies in Mexico and Colombia. This holistic, multi-sector methodology builds on diverse existing data resources and leverages situation analysis, modeled predictions, and scenarios to synchronize public and private action at the national level toward sustainable, equitable, and inclusive agri-food systems. Culminating in collectively agreed strategies and multi-partner tactical plans, the IASI methodology enabled a multi-level systems approach by mobilizing design thinking to foster mindset shifts and stakeholder consensus on sustainable and scalable innovations that respond to real-time dynamics in complex agri-food systems. To build capacity for these types of integrated, context-specific approaches, greater investment is needed in supportive international institutions that function as trusted in-region ‘innovation brokers.’ This paper calls for a structured global network to advance adaptation and evolution of essential tools like the IASI methodology in support of the One CGIAR mandate and in service of positive agri-food systems transformation.

Introduction Climate change affects livestock production and productivity, which could threaten livestock-based food security in pastoral and agro-pastoral production systems of the tropics and sub-tropics. Boran cattle breed is one of the hardiest Zebu cattle reared by Borana Oromo pastoralists for milk and meat production. However, there is limited comprensive information on production, reproduction and adaption traits of the Boran cattle in Ethiopia. Thus, this paper aims to compile the main production, reproduction and some adaptation traits of Boran cattle based on systematic review and meta-analysis of peer reviewed published and unpublished literature. Methodology A combination of systematic review and meta-analysis based on PRISMA guideline was employed. Accordingly, out of 646 recorded articles identified through database searching, 64 were found to be eligible for production, reproduction and adaptation characteristics of the Boran cattle, 28 articles were included in qualitative systematic review while 36 articles were used for quantitative meta-analysis. Result The Boran cattle breed has the ability to survive, produce and reproduce under high ambient temperature, utilize low quality forage resources, and resist water shortage or long watering intervals and tick infestations. The review revealed that the breed employs various adaptation responses (morphological, physiological, biochemical, metabolic, cellular and molecular responses) to cope with harsh environmental conditions including climate change, rangeland degradation, seasonal feed and water shortages and high incidences of tick infestations. The meta-analysis using a random-effects model allowed provision of pooled estimates of heritability and genetic correlations for reproduction and production traits, which could be used to solve genetic prediction equations under a population level in purebred Boran cattle. In addition, heritability and genetic-correlation estimates found in the present study suggest that there is high genetic variability for most traits in Boran cattle, and that genetic progress is possible for all studied traits in this breed. Conclusion The Boran cattle breed has the ability to survive, produce and reproduce under high ambient temperature, utilize low quality forage resources, and resist water shortage or long watering intervals and tick infestations. However, currently there are several challenges such as recurrent droughts, pasture deterioration and lack of systematic selection and breeding programs that play to undermine the realization of the potential of the breed. Thus, we recommend systematic selection for enhancing the reproductive and production performances without compromising the adaptation traits of the breed coupled with improved management of rangelands.

It is estimated that about 1/4th of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be caused by the global food system. Reducing the GHG emissions from food production is a major challenge in the context of the projected growth of the world’s population, which is increasing demand for food. In this context, the goal should be to achieve the lowest possible emission intensity of the food production system, understood as the amount of GHG emissions per unit of output. The study aimed to calculate the emission intensity of food production systems and to specify its determinants based on a panel regression model for 14 countries, which accounted for more than 65% of food production in the world between 2000 and 2014. In this article, emission intensity is defined as the amount of GHG emissions per value of global output. Research on the determinants of GHG emissions related to food production is well documented in the literature; however, there is a lack of research on the determinants of the emission intensity ratio for food production. Hence, the original contribution of this paper is the analysis of the determinants of GHG emissions intensity of food production systems. The study found the decreased of emission intensity from an average of more than 0.68 kg of CO2 equivalent per USD 1 worth of food production global output in 2000 to less than 0.46 in 2014. The determinants of emission intensity decrease included the yield of cereals, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, the agriculture material intensity, the Human Development Index, and the share of fossil fuel energy consumption in total energy use. The determinants of growth of emission intensity of food production systems included GDP per capita, population density, nitrogen fertilizer production, utilized agriculture area, share of animal production, and energy use per capita.

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.

Through regular sampling surveys, the Flanders Marine Institute is generating long term data series for the Belgian coastal water and sand bank systems, a designated site in the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. The data series is built on sampling activities initiated in 2002, but gradually upgraded and extended in the framework of the LifeWatch marine observatory and the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) participation. Nine nearshore stations are sampled monthly, with additional seasonal sampling of eight offshore stations. This paper presents the generated data series for nutrients, pigments, suspended matter and turbidity. The collection, methodology and processing of the 2002-2018 dataset is described, along with its data curation, integration and quality control. Yearly versions of the data are published online in a standardized format, accompanied with extensive metadata description and labelled with digital identifiers for traceability. Data is published under a CC-BY license, allowing use of the data under the condition of providing reference to the original source., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area.

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data.

[EN]Studies on plasticity at the level of a single individual plant provide indispensable information to predict leaf responses to climate change, because they allow better identification of the environmental factors that determine differences in leaf traits in the absence of genetic differences. Most of these studies have focused on the responses of leaf traits to variations in the light environment along vertical gradients, thus paying less attention to possible differences in the intensity of water stress among canopy orientations. In this paper, we analyzed the differences in leaf traits traditionally associated with changes in the intensity of water stress between east and west crown orientations in three Quercus species. The leaves facing west experienced similar solar radiation levels but higher maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum water potentials than those of the east orientation. In response to these differences, the leaves of the west orientation showed smaller size and less chlorophyll concentration, higher percentage of palisade tissue and higher density of stomata and trichomes. These responses would confirm the role of such traits in the tolerance to water stress and control of water losses by transpiration. For all traits, the species with the longest leaf life span exhibited the greatest plasticity between orientations. By contrast, no differences between canopy positions were observed for leaf thickness, leaf mass per unit area and venation patterns.

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. ispartof: PLOS ONE vol:14 issue:4 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Understanding how marine taxa will respond to near-future climate changes is one of the main challenges for management of coastal ecosystem services. Ecological studies that investigate relationships between the environment and shell properties of commercially important marine species are commonly restricted to latitudinal gradients or small-scale laboratory experiments. This paper aimed to explore the variations in shell features and growth of the edible bivalve Chamelea gallina from the Holocene sedimentary succession to present-day thanatocoenosis of the Po Plain-Adriatic Sea system (Italy). Comparing the Holocene sub-fossil record to modern thanatocoenoses allowed obtaining an insight of shell variations dynamics on a millennial temporal scale. Five shoreface-related assemblages rich in C. gallina were considered: two from the Middle Holocene, when regional sea surface temperatures were higher than today, representing a possible analogue for the near-future global warming, one from the Late Holocene and two from the present-day. We investigated shell biometry and skeletal properties in relation to the valve length of C. gallina. Juveniles were found to be more porous than adults in all horizons. This suggested that C. gallina promoted an accelerated shell accretion with a higher porosity and lower density at the expense of mechanically fragile shells. A positive correlation between sea surface temperature and both micro-density and bulk density were found, with modern specimens being less dense, likely due to lower aragonite saturation state at lower temperature, which could ultimately increase the energetic costs of shell formation. Since no variation was observed in shell CaCO3 polymorphism (100% aragonite) or in compositional parameters among the analyzed horizons, the observed dynamics in skeletal parameters are likely not driven by a diagenetic recrystallization of the shell mineral phase. This study contributes to understand the response of C. gallina to climate-driven environmental shifts and offers insights for assessing anthropogenic impacts on this economic relevant species.

Coral bleaching driven by ocean warming is one of the most visible ecological impacts of climate change and perhaps the greatest threat to the persistence of reefs in the coming decades. In the absence of returning atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to those compatible with ocean temperatures below the mass coral bleaching temperature thresholds, the most straightforward means to reduce thermal-stress induced bleaching is to cool water at the seabed. The feasibility of reducing the seabed temperature through cool-water injections is considered first by analysing the feasibility of doing so on 19 reefs with differing physical environments using a simple residence time metric in 200 m resolution hydrodynamic model configurations. We then concentrate on the reefs around Lizard Island, the most promising candidate of the 19 locations, and develop a 40 m hydrodynamic model to investigate the effect of the injection of cool water at differing volumetric rates. Injecting 27°C seawater at a rate of 5 m3 s-1 at 4 sites in early 2017 cooled 97 ha of the reef by 0.15°C or more. The power required to pump 5 m3 s-1 through a set of pipes over a distance of 3 km from a nearby channel is ∼466 kW. This power applied at 4 sites for 3 months achieves a 2 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) reduction on 97 ha of reef. A more precise energy costing will require further expert engineering design of the pumping equipment and energy sources. Even for the most physically favourable reefs, cool-water transported through pipes and injected at a reef site is energy expensive and cannot be scaled up to any meaningful fraction of the 3,100 reefs of the GBR. Should priority be given to reducing thermal stress on one or a few high value reefs, this paper provides a framework to identify the most promising sites.

Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification are global environmental phenomena with a common driver: anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. Both processes potentially threaten the Mediterranean bivalve mollusc aquaculture sector, which is economically relevant to several regions and countries. Detrimental effects on bivalve mollusc species might arise from the associated increase in sea surface temperature, pH reduction, higher frequency of extreme climatic events, and possible synergies with other nonclimatic stressors, such as harmful algal blooms and mollusc diseases. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire-based study of Mediterranean bivalve mollusc producers from 12 coastal regions and six countries, the latter including those with the highest production share in the Mediterranean region. This study aims to assess knowledge and perception of threat of climatic and nonclimatic environmental stressors within the Mediterranean aquaculture industry. Furthermore, it collects information about the (geographical) impacts of summer heat waves and ocean acidification. The results suggest that ocean acidification is still a relatively unknown phenomenon and generally poorly understood. Moreover, it is considered a secondary threat compared with other pressures. Summer heat waves are presently perceived as the highest threat, having been observed in a majority of the studied production sites in past years, with effects on seed (spat), adult mortality, and byssus attachment.

Perennial vegetables are a neglected and underutilized class of crops with potential to address 21st century challenges. They represent 33–56% of cultivated vegetable species, and occupy 6% of world vegetable cropland. Despite their distinct relevance to climate change mitigation and nutritional security, perennial vegetables receive little attention in the scientific literature. Compared to widely grown and marketed vegetable crops, many perennial vegetables show higher levels of key nutrients needed to address deficiencies. Trees with edible leaves are the group of vegetables with the highest levels of these key nutrients. Individual “multi-nutrient” species are identified with very high levels of multiple nutrients for addressing deficiencies. This paper reports on the synthesis and meta-analysis of a heretofore fragmented global literature on 613 cultivated perennial vegetables, representing 107 botanical families from every inhabited continent, in order to characterize the extent and potential of this class of crops. Carbon sequestration potential from new adoption of perennial vegetables is estimated at 22.7–280.6 MMT CO2-eq/yr on 4.6–26.4 Mha by 2050.

Agricultural development projects have a poor track record of success mainly due to risks and uncertainty involved in implementation. Cost-benefit analysis can help allocate resources more effectively, but scarcity of data and high uncertainty makes it difficult to use standard approaches. Bayesian Networks (BN) offer a suitable modelling technology for this domain as they can combine expert knowledge and data. This paper proposes a systematic methodology for creating a general BN model for evaluating agricultural development projects. Our approach adapts the BN model to specific projects by using systematic review of published evidence and relevant data repositories under the guidance of domain experts. We evaluate a large-scale agricultural investment in Africa to provide a proof of concept for this approach. The BN model provides decision support for project evaluation by predicting the value-measured as net present value and return on investment-of the project under different risk scenarios.

This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence.

Regulating ecosystem services provided by urban forests are of great importance for the quality of life among city dwellers. To reach a maximum contribution to well-being in cities, the urban regulating ecosystem services (URES) must match with the demands in terms of space and time. If we understand the matches or mismatches between the current urban dwellers' desired quality conditions (demand) and the supply of URES by urban forests (UF) in the cities, this will facilitate integrating the concepts of ecosystem services in urban planning and management, but such an assessment has suffered from major knowledge limitations. Since it is complex and problematic to identify the direct demands for URES and the spatiotemporal patterns therein, improving the demand indicators can help to determine the actual requirements. In this paper, a methodological approach based on indicators is presented and demonstrated for two important URES: air quality improvement and global climate change mitigation provided by urban trees and shrubs. Four air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets were used and compared to supplies of the URES in Tabriz, Iran. Our results show that the mean contribution of the URES supply to air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets is modest. Hence, in Tabriz, there is a strong mismatch between demand and supply. Mismatches at the city scale will have to be reduced by both a reduction in pollutant emissions and an increased provisioning of URES supply through urban greenery. The presented assessment approach and the results for Tabriz make it explicit how different the demands and supplies of the two studied URES are, and we expect similar mismatches in many other cities. Therefore, our approach, relatively simple but still realistic and easy-to-apply, can raise awareness about, and the utility of, the ecosystem services concepts for urban planning and policymaking.