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Sustainability metrics, based on material efficiency, energy input, land use and costs, of three processes for the manufacture of methionine are compared. The petrochemical process affords dl -methionine while the two biomass-based routes afford the l -enantiomer. From the point of view of the major application, in animal feed, either can be used. The first bio-based route, developed by CJ Cheil-Jedang, involves the production of an l -methionine precursor, O-succinyl homoserine by fermentation followed by enzymatic reaction of the latter with methyl mercaptan. The second bio-based route involves the isolation of l -methionine from grass protein. Based on this concise evaluation of the sustainability metrics we conclude that both bio-based processe are potentially attractive sustainable routes for the manufacture of methionine.

In the future, the world is expected to rely increasingly on renewable biomass resources for food, fodder, fibre and fuel. The sustainability of this transition to bioeconomy for our water systems depends to a large extent on how we manage our land resources. Changes in land use together with climate change will affect water quantity and quality, which again will have implications for the ecosystem services provided by water resources. These are the main topics of this Ambio special issue on “Environmental effects of a green bio-economy”. This paper offers a summary of the eleven papers included in this issue and, at the same time, outlines an approach to quantify and mitigate the impacts of bioeconomy on water resources and their ecosystem services, with indications of useful tools and knowledge needs.

International civil aviation strives to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is an alternative for such purpose. However, for an alternative fuel to be considered SAF, some conditions must be met, and production must be certified for sustainability. This paper presents an assessment of the necessary conditions for the sustainable production of these biofuels in Brazil. It is based on a geospatial publicly available database (SAFmaps) that was built with the aim of providing information to stakeholders who would be interested in the production of SAF. The geographic scope corresponds to an area that is about half of the country. The case studies reported in this paper are related to four crop-based feedstocks (eucalyptus, soybean, sugarcane, and corn), which could be used for SAF production, according to three certified routes (FT, HEFA, and ATJ) (Fischer–Tropsch, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids and Alcohol to Jet), in total, six potential production sites were assessed. For each crop, the detailed assessment is based on estimates of suitability for biomass production, yields, and costs. The assumptions made allowed us to explicitly analyse the risk of deforestation (production could only occur with displacement of pastures) and the necessary preservation of sensitive biomes and of legally protected areas, in addition to observing the restrictive conditions imposed by CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). To reduce GHG emissions, transporting biomass over long distances was assumed to be only by rail or pipeline. In addition, we address alternatives to minimise the risks associated with induced land-use change (iLUC) and to reduce impacts on the landscape. The results show that the production of SAF through the ATJ route, using ethanol produced from sugarcane and corn, requires less land. Economic assessment was outside the scope of this paper.

The sustainability of production is one of the greatest challenges experienced by the Malaysian palm oil industry. Palm oil products consistently receive negative press and criticism, for causing deforestation, land use changes, peat land conversion, species loss, greenhouse gas emissions, biomass waste generation, violation of indigenous people's rights and limited local employment. This paper evaluates the sustainability of the most common crude palm oil supply chain in Malaysia, located in Sarawak, using the Palm Oil Sustainability Assessment (POSA) framework. The results show that the overall sustainability score for a typical crude palm oil supply chain in Malaysia is 3.47/5, which is below the sustainability target of 5/5. Hotspots identified include smallholder inequity, lack of biomass waste recycling and recovery, improper plantation practices, lower average wages and local employment. The site‐specific application of the POSA framework in the current study demonstrates its potential to be used universally across Malaysia.

The African Tropics are hotspots of modern-day land use change and are, at the same time, of great relevance for the cycling of carbon (C) and nutrients between plants, soils, and the atmosphere. However, the consequences of land conversion on biogeochemical cycles are still largely unknown as they are not studied in a landscape context that defines the geomorphic, geochemical, and pedological framework in which biological processes take place. Thus, the response of tropical soils to disturbance by erosion and land conversion is one of the great uncertainties in assessing the carrying capacity of tropical landscapes to grow food for future generations and in predicting greenhouse gas fluxes from soils to the atmosphere and, hence, future earth system dynamics. Here we describe version 1.0 of an open-access database created as part of the project “Tropical soil organic carbon dynamics along erosional disturbance gradients in relation to variability in soil geochemistry and land use” (TropSOC). TropSOC v1.0 (Doetterl et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.5880/fidgeo.2021.009) contains spatially and temporally explicit data on soil, vegetation, environmental properties, and land management collected from 136 pristine tropical forest and cropland plots between 2017 and 2020 as part of monitoring and sampling campaigns in the eastern Congo Basin and the East African Rift Valley system. The results of several laboratory experiments focusing on soil microbial activity, C cycling, and C stabilization in soils complement the dataset to deliver one of the first landscape-scale datasets to study the linkages and feedbacks between geology, geomorphology, and pedogenesis as controls on biogeochemical cycles in a variety of natural and managed systems in the African Tropics. The hierarchical and interdisciplinary structure of the TropSOC database allows linking of a wide range of parameters and observations on soil and vegetation dynamics along with other supporting information that may also be measured at one or more levels of the hierarchy. TropSOC's data mark a significant contribution to improve our understanding of the fate of biogeochemical cycles in dynamic and diverse tropical African (agro-)ecosystems. TropSOC v1.0 can be accessed through the Supplement provided as part of this paper or as a separate download via the websites of the Congo Biogeochemistry Observatory and GFZ Data Services where version updates to the database will be provided as the project develops., Earth System Science Data Discussions, ISSN:1866-3591

While it is generally accepted that our fossil fuel-dominated energy systems must undergo a sustainable transition, researchers have often neglected the potential impacts of this on water and land systems. However, if unintended environmental impacts from this process are to be avoided, understanding its implications for land use and water demand is of crucial importance. Moreover, developed countries may induce environmental stress beyond their own borders, for instance through extensive imports of bioenergy. In this paper, Germany serves as an example of a developed country with ambitious energy transformation targets. Results show that in particular, the politically-driven aspiration for more organic farming in Germany results in a higher import quota of biomass, especially biofuels. These imports translate into land demand, which will exceed the area available in Germany for bioenergy by a factor of 3–6.5 by 2050. As this will likely bring about land stress in the respective exporting countries, this effect of the German energy transformation ought to be limited as much as possible. In contrast, domestic water demand for the German energy system is expected to decrease by over 80% through 2050 due to declining numbers of fossil-fuelled power plants. However, possible future irrigation needs for bioenergy may reduce or even counterbalance this decreasing effect. In addition, energy policy targets specific to the transport sector show a high sensitivity to biomass imports. In particular, the sector-specific target for greenhouse gas reductions will seemingly promote biomass imports, leading to the above-described challenges in the pursuit of sustainability.

Life cycle assessments (LCAs) of algal biofuels have typically ignore direct land use change impacts (DLUC), although a few papers have recently shown that the carbon lost from removing the original biomass and disrupting soil organic carbon (SOC) during pond construction can significantly contribute to the climate change impacts. In this study, LCA methods were developed to integrate climate change impacts of DLUC associated with cultivation of microalgae in open ponds and the effects of temporal and geographic variables on algal growth. In addition to direct land use change impacts due to loss of original biomass and the disruption of SOC, this study presents DLUC impacts caused by changing the surface albedo of an area and changing the carbon flux on the land. The methodology is presented with two LCA cases for the production of renewable gasoline from microalgae in climatically similar regions: the Everglades ecoregion and the Tamaulipas-Texas Semi-Arid Plain ecoregion. These were chosen to isolate the differences in DLUC impacts that are created by different land cover types, equalizing the life cycle impacts caused by temperature and solar radiation on algal growth. The DLUC impacts arising from albedo change and carbon flux change contributed significantly to the life cycle climate change impacts and differed between the two climatically similar regions. The baseline life cycle climate change impacts with DLUC impacts in the Everglades are 46.7% higher than those of conventional gasoline, while production in the Tamaulipas-Texas Semi-Arid Plain leads to a 3.0% reduction. The inclusion of albedo change impacts into the DLUC impacts contributed 10.2% of the life cycle climate change impacts in the Everglades and 36.4% in the Tamaulipas. This methodology can help assess the geographically specific sustainability of algal biofuels on a life cycle basis and can guide siting decisions for algal biofuel feedstock production.

In East Africa, charcoal and firewood will remain the main sources of energy for cooking for the next two to three decades. Corresponding energy policies are needed that set proper priorities and improve the sustainability of the biomass energy sector. In this paper, we assess the supply potentials of wood-based and non-woody biomass fuels in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, and formulate recommendations to support sustainable biomass energy strategies in East Africa. We differentiate between tree types of potentials: the supply potential, the access potential, and the production potential. In order to calculate these potentials, we use a spatial Bayesian network that specifically enables accounting for uncertainties in the data and model. The main results show: (1) that agroforestry and small-scale mixed farming are the land use types with the highest potentials, (2) that firewood, charcoal, and biogas have substantial potential, whereas crop residue briquettes and Jatropha oil have only minor potentials, and (3) that such estimates can be subject to substantial uncertainties. Based on these results, we recommend that biomass energy strategies in East Africa consider the specific assets and limiting factors of the various fuel types and land use types in order to improve the supply of sustainable biomass cooking fuels.

International audience; Biomass production has developed significantly in the latest decades to meet the growing needs of the bioeconomy sector. This trend is expected to continue in the near future to substitute dwindling fossil resources. Concerns were recently raised on the consequences of expanding feedstock production on land use worldwide, prompting a surge in scientific publications. These consequences may be analysed through a three-step causal chain relating drivers of feedstock production, changes in land use (LUC), and environmental impacts. Among these, atmospheric pollution or human health impacts, as related to LUC, are rarely evaluated although they are a prime concern for environmental policies and the sustainability of the bioeconomy.Here, we reviewed current research on the LUC-mediated effects of biomass development on air quality and human health through a systematic survey of literature from 1975 to 2015. Only 17 articles addressing air quality and 9 papers addressing human health were retrieved. Most were published after 2014, implying that these topics only emerged recently. Most studies focused on liquid biofuels (1st and 2nd generation), although bio-materials and bio-electricity were also represented. These studies covered several geographical areas, with an emphasis on Europe and South America. Given the small size of our sample and the diversity of contexts it addressed, it is difficult to evidence clear-cut trends on the impacts of substituting fossil resources with biomass on human health and air quality.. Overall, the benefits of this substitution appeared mixed and dependent on the type of end-product considered. First-generation biofuels were out-performed by their second-generation counterparts, but this trend relies on a low number of references. Life-cycle assessment was the predominant method used to estimate the impacts of biomass development on human health or air pollution. This emerging field warrants further efforts toward more thorough assessments of LUC effects.

Biomass has been, historically, the main source of global energy, primarily for cooking, heating, and small cottage industries. It is witnessing a strong revival and is currently used in a multitude of applications. It provides between 10 and 14% of world energy, with the potential to provide 30–40 + % and is an integral component of all energy scenarios. Biomass energy is providing multiple energy, environmental, and socio-economic benefits, both modern and traditional, ranging from electricity, heat, to transportation fuels. This review provides a critical assessment of biomass energy literature. It is not an analysis of biomass energy production and conversion methods. The main themes covered are: (i) biomass energy potential and its uses; (ii) liquid biofuels for transportation; (iii) land use changes implications; (iv) the food versus fuel debate; (v) environmental and sustainability, subsidies and energy balance issues; and (vi) international biomass energy trade. An additional key concern of this review has been to identify the main shortcomings and concerns affecting biomass energy of themes stated above, e.g. problems posed by poor scientific data, land use change, food versus biofuel debate; environmental and sustainability implications, or potential impacts of international biomass energy trade. Given the broad nature of biomass energy, and the need to embraces all major issues, this review paper is in many ways an overview. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry

The rising demand for feed and food has put an increasing pressure on agriculture, with agricultural intensification as a direct response. Notwithstanding the higher crop productivity, intensive agriculture management entails many adverse environmental impacts. Worldwide, soil organic carbon (SOC) decline is hereby considered as a main danger which affects soil fertility and productivity. The life cycle perspective helps to get a holistic overview when evaluating the environmental sustainability of agricultural systems, though the impact of farm management on soil quality aspects is often not integrated. In this paper, we introduce an indicator called Agricultural Biomass Productivity Benefit of SOC management (ABB_SOC), which, relying on natural resource consumption, enables to estimate the net effect of the efforts made to attain a better soil quality. Hereby the focus is put on SOC. First, we introduce a framework to describe the SOC trend due to farm management decisions. The extent to which remediation measures are required are used as a measure for the induced SOC losses. Next, ABB_SOC values are calculated as the balance between the natural resource consumption of the inputs (including remediation efforts) and the desired output of arable crop production systems. The models RothC and EU-Rotate_N are used to simulate the SOC evolution due to farm management and the response of the biomass productivity, respectively. The developed indicator is applied on several rotation systems in Flanders, comparing different remediation strategies. The indicator could be used as a base for a method to account for soil quality in life cycle analysis.

This paper reviews European land and bioenergy potential studies to 1) identify shortcomings related to how they account for agricultural intensification and its associated environmental effects, and sustainability constraints, and 2) provide suggestions on how these shortcomings can be improved in future assessments. The key shortcomings are: The environmental impacts of intensification are nearly always ignored in the reviewed studies, while these impacts should be accounted for if intensification is required to make land available for energy cropping. Future productivity developments of crops and livestock, and the associated land-use and environmental effects are currently limited to conventional intensification measures whereby the proportion between inputs and outputs is fixed. Sustainable intensification measures, which increase land productivity with similar or lower inputs, are ignored in the reviewed studies. Livestock productivity developments, livestock specific intensification measures and their environmental effects are poorly or not at all covered in the reviewed studies. Most studies neglect sustainability constraints other than GHG emissions in the selection of energy crops. This includes limitations to rainfed energy crop cultivation, a minimum number of crop species, the structural diversity within cropping areas and the integration of energy crops in existing or new crop rotations, while simultaneously considering the effects on subsequent crops. These shortcomings suggest that the identification of sustainable pathways for European bioenergy production requires a more integrative approach combining land demand for food, feed and energy crop production, including different intensification pathways, and the consequent direct and indirect environmental impacts. A better inclusion of management practices into such approach will improve the assessment of intensification, its environmental consequences and the sustainable bioenergy potential from agricultural feedstocks.

This paper presents an approach in support of spatial planning for renewable energy at the regional level. It aims to establish an elaborate and informative procedure, as well as integrated quantification and visualization, to support decision making. The proposed approach is composed of a set of sequential steps that include primary energy consumption estimation, renewable energy potential estimation, energy self-sufficiency analysis, and composite map preparation using Geographic Information System (GIS). GIS is used to analyze solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and hydro-power potential within Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. Potential sites are determined based on geographic, topographic, and land use constraints. Evacuees’ population and forest radiation levels are specifically considered in the context of consequent issues emanating from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear crisis. Energy self-sufficiency analysis has been conducted for years 2020 and 2030. A composite map showing potential sites and their interrelation to the above renewable energy resources has also been presented. These results may support decision making in regional renewable energy planning, by providing information on regional potentials and restrictions to different energy stakeholders. This can help to build an energy developmental vision, which can drive regional energy development towards sustainability. The proposed approach can also be applied to other Japanese municipalities or regions. It provides an example on how to establish local GIS databases through the utilization of various online open GIS resources in Japan.

The ‘human appropriation of net primary production’ (HANPP) is an integrated socio-ecological indicator measuring effects of land use on ecological biomass flows. Based on published data for Austria, Hungary, the Philippines, South Africa, Spain and the UK, this paper investigates long-term trends in aboveground HANPP and discusses the relations between population, economic growth, changes in biomass use and land-use intensity and their influences on national HANPP trajectories. During early stages of industrialization, population growth and increasing demand for biomass drive land-cover change, often resulting in deforestation, which raises HANPP. During later stages, industrialization of agriculture boosts agricultural yields often faster than biomass demand grows, resulting in stable or even declining HANPP. Technological change improves agricultural area-efficiency (biomass provision per unit area), thereby decoupling population and economic growth from HANPP. However, these efficiency gains require large inputs of fossil fuels and agrochemicals resulting in pressures on ecosystems and emissions. Our findings corroborate the argument that HANPP alone cannot – as sometimes suggested – be used as a simple measure of carrying capacity. Nevertheless, analyses of long-term HANPP trajectories in combination with accounts of material and energy flows can provide important insights into the sustainability of land use, thereby helping to understand limits to growth., Highlights ► We analyzed HANPP time series for Austria, Hungary, the Philippines, South Africa, Spain & the UK. ► Biomass harvest grew considerably in all six cases. ► In early stages of industrialization, population growth and biomass demand often drive up HANPP. ► In later stages of industrialization, technological change often results in falling HANPP levels. ► HANPP decreases were only achieved with massive increases in fossil fuel consumption and use of agrochemicals.

Landscape implications of bioenergy feedstock choices are significant and depend on land-use practices and their environmental impacts. Although land-use changes and carbon emissions associated with bioenergy feedstock production are dynamic and complicated, lignocellulosic feedstocks may offer opportunities that enhance sustainability when compared to other transportation fuel alternatives. For bioenergy sustainability, major drivers and concerns revolve around energy security, food production, land productivity, soil carbon and erosion, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, air quality, and water quantity and quality. The many implications of bioenergy feedstock choices require several indicators at multiple scales to provide a more complete accounting of effects. Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of bioenergy feedstock resources (as well as food supplies) throughout the world depends on land-use practices and landscape dynamics. Land-management decisions often invoke trade-offs among potential environmental effects and social and economic factors as well as future opportunities for resource use. The hypothesis being addressed in this paper is that sustainability of bioenergy feedstock production can be achieved via appropriately designed crop residue and perennial lignocellulosic systems. We find that decision makers need scientific advancements and adequate data that both provide quantitative and qualitative measures of the effects of bioenergy feedstock choices at different spatial and temporal scales and allow fair comparisons among available options for renewable liquid fuels.

In this study a comprehensive analysis of the environmental impacts of 2 nd generation (lignocellulosic) feedstock using LUISA (Land Use Integrated Sustainability Assessment) spatial modelling platform has been performed under the Energy–Climate reference scenario in EU-28 from 2010 up to 2050. The definition of this reference scenario and its implementation in LUISA is described in this paper, emphasizing the role of the renewable energy directive in the promotion of renewable energies under sustainability criteria for the biomass production, including energy crops. These sustainability criteria attempt to minimize the potential negative impacts on environment, social and economic aspects. Accordingly, site selection is a crucial step, taking into account the ecological requirements of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops for energy purpose. Geographical areas characterised by high suitability levels for the cultivation of energy crops were identified and mapped. A possible solution to land competition conflict is the use of degraded and potentially contaminated lands for growing energy lignocellulosic crops in those areas. The main output from

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has suggested that large-scale use of carbon-neutral or low-carbon biomass-derived energy will be essential in order to limit carbon emissions from the world’s energy sector in the future. The IPCC envisions as much as 400 million ha being devoted to biomass energy plantations by 2050. To realize production of biomass energy at such levels — in a manner that would be both biogeophysically sustainable and socially beneficial — will require planning and policy development at sub-national levels, taking into account biogeophysical, social, cultural, economic, institutional, and other factors. This paper presents a method for spatially explicit calculations for estimating potential biomass yields over relatively large geographic regions. The calculations use geo-referenced data inputs that include rainfall, insolation, temperature, soil quality, and soil depth. The methodology is applied to the Northeast region of Brazil, which accounts for 10% of the area of South America. Northeast Brazil is an interesting site for illustrative purposes in part because it is biologically, geologically, and socio-economically diverse and in part because the main electric utility serving the region is exploring the development of biomass-based electricity generation to meet future increases in electricity demand. Results from a spatially explicit, biogeophysical model like that presented here could be combined with other spatially explicit information such as road layouts, existing land uses, population densities and growth rates, distributions of endangered species, archeologically significant areas, etc. to inform planning and policy development related to biomass energy at a regional or national level. One illustration of such an analysis is included here. For on-the-ground implementation of biomass production systems, finer-resolution analysis and intimate local participation is essential.

In the context of environmental sustainability there has been an increasing interest in bioenergy production from renewable resources, and is expected that European biofuel production from energy crops will increase as a consequence of the achievement of policy targets. The aim of this paper is to assess the agronomic feasibility of biomass crop cultivation to provide profitable renewable feedstocks in a marginal and heavy-metal polluted area located in the Sulcis district, Sardinia (Italy). Results from literature review and unpublished data from field trials carried out in Sardinia were analysed to establish the main agronomic traits of crops (e.g., yield potential and input requirements). A Geographical Information System (GIS)-based procedure with remotely sensed data is also used to evaluate the land suitability and the actual land use/cover, considering a future scenario of expansion of energy crops on these marginal areas avoiding potential conflicts with food production. The results of the review suggests that giant reed, native perennial grasses and milk thistle are the most suitable energy crops for this area. The land suitability analysis shows that about 5700 ha and 1000 ha could be available for feedstock cultivation in the study area and in the most polluted area, respectively. The results obtained from land suitability process and agronomic evaluation will serve as a base to support technical and economical feasibility studies, as well as for the evaluation of environmental sustainability of the cultivation in the study area.

Eucalyptusis a fast-growing tree native to Australia and could be used to supply biomass for bioenergy and other purposes along the coastal regions of the southeastern United States (USA). At a farmgate price of $66 dry Mg−1, a potential supply of 27 to 41.3 million dry Mg year−1ofEucalyptuscould be produced on about 1.75 million ha in the southeastern USA. A proposed suite of indicators provides a practical and consistent way to measure the sustainability of a particular situation whereEucalyptusmight be grown as a feedstock for conversion to bioenergy. Applying this indicator suite toEucalyptusculture in the southeastern USA provides a basis for the practical evaluation of socioeconomic and environmental sustainability in those systems. Sustainability issues associated with usingEucalyptusfor bioenergy do not differ greatly from those of other feedstocks, for prior land-use practices are a dominant influence. Particular concerns focus on the potential for invasiveness, water use, and social acceptance. This paper discusses opportunities and constraints of sustainable production ofEucalyptusin the southeastern USA. For example, potential effects on sustainability that can occur in all five stages of the biofuel life cycle are depicted.

The increasing demand for biomass for the production of bioenergy is generating land-use conflicts. These conflicts might be solved through spatial segregation of food/feed and energy producing areas by continuing producing food on established and productive agricultural land while growing dedicated energy crops on so called “surplus” land. Ambiguity in the definition and characterization of surplus land as well as uncertainty in assessments of land availability and of future bioenergy potentials is causing confusion about the prospects and the environmental and socio-economic implications of bioenergy development in those areas. The high level of uncertainty is due to environmental, economic and social constraints not yet taken into account and to the potentials offered by those novel crops and their production methods not being fully exploited. This paper provides a scientific background in support of a reassessment of land available for bioenergy production by clarifying the terminology, identifying constraints and options for an efficient bioenergy-use of surplus land and providing policy recommendations for resolving conflicting land-use demands. A serious approach to factoring in the constraints, combined with creativity in utilizing the options provided, in our opinion, would lead to a more sustainable and efficient development of the bioenergy sector. Unless the sustainability challenge is mastered, the interdependent policy objectives of mitigating climate change, obtaining independence from fossil fuels, feeding and fuelling a growing human world population and maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services will not be met. Despite the advanced developments of bioenergy, we still see regional solutions for designing and establishing sustainable bioenergy production systems with optimized production resulting in social, economic and ecological benefits. Where bioenergy production has been identified as the most suitable option to overcome the given problems of energy security and climate change mitigation, we need to determine which bioenergy cultivation systems are most suitable for the respective types of surplus land, by taking into account issues such as yields, inputs and costs, as well as potential environmental and socio-economic impacts.

This paper presents a comprehensive and consistent methodology to account for the costs and net carbon flows of different categories of forestry and biomass energy projects and describes the application of the methodology to several sets of projects in Latin America. The results suggest that both biomass energy development and forestry measures including reforestation and forest protection can contribute significantly to the reduction of global CO 2 emissions, and that local land-use capacity must determine the type of project that is appropriate in specific cases. No single approach alone is sufficient as either a national or global strategy for sustainable land use or carbon emission reduction. The methodology allows consistent comparisons of the costs and quantities of carbon stored in different types of projects and/or national programs, facilitating the inclusion of forestry and biomass energy projects in a possible CO 2 emission reduction regime.

A dynamic systems modelling approach is examined for its suitability for assessing sustainable performance in technological innovation. A computer model of the energy needs in the Canadian road transportation sector was developed to study the sustainable performance of bio-ethanol. It considers the potential increase in the consumption of energy as the economy expands in the next 25 years, taking into account demographic trends, consumer choices, and technological advances. While the primary environmental measure tracked is focused on greenhouse gas emissions with respect to the Kyoto target, it also includes considerations for land use and farming practices, and distinguishes between fossil and bio-carbon emissions. As well, it allows for different sources of biomass, including crop byproducts and dedicated crops. Various scenarios for bio-ethanol to penetrate the consumer market were set up to investigate a range of future evolution paths.