Search

This paper designs a comprehensive approach based on the engineering machine/ system concept, to model, analyze, and assess the level of carbon dioxide (CO) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, which is an important factor in understanding changes in global climate. The focus of this article is on spatial patterns and on the correlation between levels of CO fluxes and a variety of influencing factors in eco-environments. The engineering/machine concept used is a system protocol that includes the sequential activities of design, test, observe, and model. This concept is applied to explicitly include various influencing factors and interactions associated with CO fluxes. To formulate effective models of a large and complex climate system, this article introduces a modeling technique that will be referred to as stochastic filtering analysis of variance (SF-ANOVA). The CO flux data observed from some sites of AmeriFlux are used to illustrate and validate the analysis, prediction, and globalization capabilities of the proposed engineering approach and the SF-ANOVA technique. The SF-ANOVA modeling approach was compared to stepwise regression, ridge regression, and neural networks. The comparison indicated that the proposed approach is a valid and effective tool with similar accuracy and less complexity than the other procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research indicates that the warming of the climate system resulting from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next century will persist for many centuries after the cessation of these emissions, principally because of the persistence of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and their attendant radiative forcing. However, it is unknown whether the responses of other components of the climate system—including those related to Greenland and Antarctic ice cover, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the West African monsoon, and ecosystem and human welfare—would be reversed even if atmospheric CO2 concentrations were to recover to 1990 levels. Here, using a simple set of experiments employing a current-generation numerical climate model, the authors examine the response of the physical climate system to decreasing CO2 concentrations following an initial increase. Results indicate that many characteristics of the climate system, including global temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture, and sea ice, recover as CO2 concentrations decrease. However, other components of the Earth system may still exhibit nonlinear hysteresis. In these experiments, for instance, increases in stratospheric water vapor, which initially result from increased CO2 concentrations, remain present even as CO2 concentrations recover. These results suggest that identification of additional threshold behaviors in response to human-induced global climate change should focus on subcomponents of the full Earth system, including cryosphere, biosphere, and chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States over the period 2001–04. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 in the United States was estimated as annual net sink of about +0.2 Pg C in 2004. Regional climate patterns were reflected in the predicted annual NEP flux from the model, which showed extensive carbon sinks in ecosystems of the southern and eastern regions in 2003–04, and major carbon source fluxes from ecosystems in the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Northwest regions in 2003–04. As demonstrated through tower site comparisons, net primary production (NPP) modeled with monthly MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) inputs closely resembles both the measured high- and low-season carbon fluxes. Modeling results suggest that the capacity of the NASA Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model to use 8-km resolution MODIS EVI data to predict peak growing season uptake rates of CO2 in irrigated croplands and moist temperate forests is strong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across many dryland regions, historically grass-dominated ecosystems have been encroached upon by woody-plant species. In this paper, we compare ecosystem water and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes over a grassland, a grassland–shrubland mosaic, and a fully developed woodland to evaluate potential consequences of woody-plant encroachment on important ecosystem processes. All three sites were located in the riparian corridor of a river in the southwest US. As such, plants in these ecosystems may have access to moisture at the capillary fringe of the near-surface water table. Using fluxes measured by eddy covariance in 2003 we found that ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) increased with increasing woody-plant dominance. Growing season ET totals were 407, 450, and 639 mm in the grassland, shrubland, and woodland, respectively, and in excess of precipitation by 227, 265, and 473 mm. This excess was derived from groundwater, especially during the extremely dry premonsoon period when this was the only source of moisture available to plants. Access to groundwater by the deep-rooted woody plants apparently decouples ecosystem ET from gross ecosystem production (GEP) with respect to precipitation. Compared with grasses, the woody plants were better able to use the stable groundwater source and had an increased net CO2 gain during the dry periods. This enhanced plant activity resulted in substantial accumulation of leaf litter on the soil surface that, during rainy periods, may lead to high microbial respiration rates that offset these photosynthetic fluxes. March–December (primary growing season) totals of NEE were −63, −212, and −233 g C m−2 in the grassland, shrubland, and woodland, respectively. Thus, there was a greater disparity between ecosystem water use and the strength of the CO2 sink as woody plants increased across the encroachment gradient. Despite a higher density of woody plants and a greater plant productivity in the woodland than in the shrubland, the woodland produced a larger respiration response to rainfall that largely offset its higher photosynthetic potential. These data suggest that the capacity for woody plants to exploit water resources in riparian areas results in enhanced carbon sequestration at the expense of increased groundwater use under current climate conditions, but the potential does not scale specifically as a function of woody-plant abundance. These results highlight the important roles of water sources and ecosystem structure on the control of water and carbon balances in dryland areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional coupled soil–vegetation–atmosphere model is used to study changes and interactions between climate and the ecosystem in East Asia due to increased atmospheric CO[sub 2] . The largest simulated climate changes are due to the radiative influence of CO[sub 2] , modified slightly by vegetation feedbacks. Annual precipitation increases by about 20% in coastal areas of northern China and in central China, but only by 8% in southern China. The strongest warming of up to 4°C occurs in summer in northern China. Generally, the climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO[sub 2] except for inland areas of northern China, where it becomes warmer and drier. Most of the changes discussed in this paper are associated with changes in the East Asian monsoon, which is intensified under doubled CO[sub 2] . The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. In some coastal and central areas around 40°N, temperate deciduous forests expand northward, replacing grassland due to warmer and wetter climate. Evergreen taiga retreats in the coastal northeast, causing extra cooling feedback due to less snow masking. The largest changes occur in extensive inland regions northward of 40°N, where deserts and shrub land expand due to warmer and drier conditions, and water supply is a critical factor for vegetation. These northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many East Asia regions, spring (from March to May) precipitation is an important restricting factor to vegetation growth, and atmospheric circulation system may influence spring precipitation patter. It is helpful to under the response of ecosystem to climate change by studying the influence of atmospheric circulation system on the coupling relationship between spring net primary productivity and precipitation. Driving CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) NPP (Net Primary Productivity) model, we estimated spring NPP for East Asia area (70°E–1 70°E, 10°N–70°N) from 1982 to 1999, and by the method of singular value decomposition we further analyzed the coupling features of spring NPP with precipitation. The result showed that the response features of NPP to precipitation were mainly embodied within the leading six NPP-precipitation paired-modes. The interpretation rates of the leading six paired-modes to the covariance of NPP-precipitation were 42.91, 23.29, 9.96, 5.60, 5.04 and 3.95%, respectively, and total to 90.75%. The temporal correlation coefficients of the leading six paired-modes were 0.830, 0.889, 0.841, 0.747, 0.912 and 0.923, respectively, and all the correlations were significant at significant level of 0.001. In some high latitude regions, there was no obviously corresponding relationship between NPP and precipitation in the leading two paired-modes, and the reason of it may be that spring temperature was the main restricting factor to NPP. In middle and low latitude regions, the effect of precipitation on NPP was relatively more notable. Nine atmospheric circulation factors in spring affected the patterns of NPP and precipitation greatly, and the regions with interpretation rate over 50% shared 60.41 and 65.58% of the whole study area, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) using the eddycovariance method were made over an agricultural ecosystem in the southeastern US. During optimum environmental conditions, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was the primary climatic factor controlling daytime NEE, accounting for 67 to 89% of variations in NEE. However, soil water content (SWC) was the dominant factor limiting the NEE-PAR response during the peak growth stage, as NEE was significantly depressed when PAR exceeding 1300 µmol photonsm-2 s-1 coincided with a very low soil water content (SWC<0.04m³m-3). Hysteresis was observed between daytime NEE and PAR during periods of water-stress resulting from high vapor pressure deficit (VPD). This is significant since it limits the range of applicability of the Michaelis-Menten equation, and the likes, to determine daytime NEE as a function of PAR. The systematic presence of hysteresis in the response of NEE to PAR suggests that the gap-filling technique based on a non-linear regression approach should take into account the presence of water-limiting field conditions. Including this step is therefore likely to improve current evaluations of ecosystem response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The magnitude, temporal, and spatial patterns of soil-atmospheric greenhouse gas (hereafter referred to as GHG) exchanges in forests near the Tropic of Cancer are still highly uncertain. To contribute towards an improvement of actual estimates, soil-atmospheric CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes were measured in three successional subtropical forests at the Dinghushan Nature Reserve (hereafter referred to as DNR) in southern China. Soils in DNR forests behaved as N2O sources and CH4 sinks. Annual mean CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes (mean±SD) were 7.7±4.6 Mg CO2-C ha−1 yr−1, 3.2±1.2 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1, and 3.4±0.9 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1, respectively. The climate was warm and wet from April through September 2003 (the hot-humid season) and became cool and dry from October 2003 through March 2004 (the cool-dry season). The seasonality of soil CO2 emission coincided with the seasonal climate pattern, with high CO2 emission rates in the hot-humid season and low rates in the cool-dry season. In contrast, seasonal patterns of CH4 and N2O fluxes were not clear, although higher CH4 uptake rates were often observed in the cool-dry season and higher N2O emission rates were often observed in the hot-humid season. GHG fluxes measured at these three sites showed a clear increasing trend with the progressive succession. If this trend is representative at the regional scale, CO2 and N2O emissions and CH4 uptake in southern China may increase in the future in light of the projected change in forest age structure. Removal of surface litter reduced soil CO2 effluxes by 17–44% in the three forests but had no significant effect on CH4 absorption and N2O emission rates. This suggests that microbial CH4 uptake and N2O production was mainly related to the mineral soil rather than in the surface litter layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a spatially nested hierarchy of field and remote-sensing observations and a process model, Biome-BGC, to produce a carbon budget for the forested region of Oregon, and to determine the relative influence of differences in climate and disturbance among the ecoregions on carbon stocks and fluxes. The simulations suggest that annual net uptake (net ecosystem production (NEP)) for the whole forested region (8.2 million hectares) was 13.8TgC (168gCm-2yr-1), with the highest mean uptake in the Coast Range ecoregion (226gCm-2yr-1), and the lowest mean NEP in the East Cascades (EC) ecoregion (88 g C m-2 yr-1). Carbon stocks totaled 2765TgC (33 700gCm-2), with wide variability among ecoregions in the mean stock and in the partitioning above- and belowground. The flux of carbon from the land to the atmosphere that is driven by wildfire was relatively low during the late 1990s ( ∼ 0.1TgC yr-1), however, wildfires in 2002 generated a much larger C source (∼ 4.1TgC). Annual harvest removals from the study area over the period 1995–2000 were ∼ 5.5TgCyr-1. The removals were disproportionately from the Coast Range, which is heavily managed for timber production (approximately 50% of all of Oregon's forest land has been managed for timber in the past 5 years). The estimate for the annual increase in C stored in long-lived forest products and land fills was 1.4TgCyr-1. Net biome production (NBP) on the land, the net effect of NEP, harvest removals, and wildfire emissions indicates that the study area was a sink (8.2Tg C yr-1). NBP of the study area, which is the more heavily forested half of the state, compensated for ∼ 52% of Oregon's fossil carbon dioxide emissions of 15.6TgC yr-1 in 2000. The Biscuit Fire in 2002 reduced NBP dramatically, exacerbating net emissions that year. The regional total reflects the strong east-west gradient in potential productivity associated with the climatic gradient, and a disturbance regime that has been dominated in recent decades by commercial forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]