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Populations of forest trees exhibit large temporal fluctuations, but little is known about the synchrony of these fluctuations across space, including their sign, magnitude, causes and characteristic scales. These have important implications for metapopulation persistence and theoretical community ecology. Using data from permanent forest plots spanning local, regional and global spatial scales, we measured spatial synchrony in tree population growth rates over sub-decadal and decadal timescales and explored the relationship of synchrony to geographical distance. Synchrony was high at local scales of less than 1 km, with estimated Pearson correlations of approximately 0.6–0.8 between species' population growth rates across pairs of quadrats. Synchrony decayed by approximately 17–44% with each order of magnitude increase in distance but was still detectably positive at distances of 100 km and beyond. Dispersal cannot explain observed large-scale synchrony because typical seed dispersal distances (<100 m) are far too short to couple the dynamics of distant forests on decadal timescales. We attribute the observed synchrony in forest dynamics primarily to the effect of spatially synchronous environmental drivers (the Moran effect), in particular climate, although pests, pathogens and anthropogenic drivers may play a role for some species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that as immigration increases, ecological communities transition from a niche-structured regime to an immigration-structured regime. The niche-structured regime is the domain of classic niche models; the immigration-structured regime is the domain of island biogeography and related theories. A recent unified model predicted a biphasic species–area relationship (SAR) arising from the transition between the two regimes, but the generality and scope of this relationship remain unclear. Here we study the transition further to address three key questions: (1) Can MacArthur and Wilson's classic graphical paradigm of intersecting immigration and extinction curves be adapted to capture the niche-structured regime that occurs at low-immigration rates? (2) Do different ecological models predict a similar biphasic SAR? (3) Can the biphasic island SAR be reconciled with the classic triphasic SAR observed in mainland biogeography? On the first point, we find that the transition can be incorporated into MacArthur and Wilson's graphical paradigm by forcing the extinction curves sharply downwards at low species richness, reflecting the stabilizing effect of niche processes. On the second point, we confirm that a variety of simple ecological models produce qualitatively similar biphasic SARs. On the third point, we find that a unified model predicts an overall four-phase SAR with the second phase being a shallow niche-structured phase that is rarely observed in mainland SARs, which we hypothesize is because local communities on mainlands are usually in the immigration-structured regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Positive species interactions are ubiquitous in natural communities, but the mechanisms through which they operate are poorly understood. One proposed mechanism is resource conversion – the conversion by a benefactor species of a resource from a resource state that is inaccessible to a potential beneficiary species into a resource state that is accessible. Such conversion often occurs as a byproduct of resource consumption, and sometimes in exchange for non‐resource benefits to the benefactor species. At least five known classes of interactions, including both facilitative and mutualistic ones, may be classified as resource conversion interactions. We formulated a generalizable mathematical model for resource conversion interactions and examined two model variants that represent processing chain and nurse plant interactions. We examined the conditions under which these conformed to the stress‐gradient hypothesis (SGH), which predicts increased interaction benefits in more stressful environments. These yielded four key insights: 1) resource conversion interactions can be positive (towards the resource recipient) only when facilitator‐mediated resource conversion is more efficient than the baseline, spontaneous, facilitator‐independent resource conversion; 2) the sign of resource conversion interaction outcomes never switches (e.g. from net positive to net negative) with changing levels of resource availability, when all other parameters are kept constant; 3) processing chain interactions at equilibrium can never be positive in a manner that conforms to the SGH; 4) nurse plant interactions can be positive and conform to the SGH, although the manner in which they do depends largely on how resource stress is defined, and the environmental supply rate of surface soil moisture. The first two insights are likely to be generalizable across all resource conversion interactions. The general agreement of the model with empirical studies suggest that resource conversion is the mechanism underlying the aforementioned interactions, and an ecologically meaningful way of classifying these previously unassociated positive species interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coexistence of many species within ecological communities poses a long‐standing theoretical puzzle. Modern coexistence theory (MCT) and related techniques explore this phenomenon by examining the chance of a species population growing from rarity in the presence of all other species. The mean growth rate when rare, E[r], is used in MCT as a metric that measures persistence properties (like invasibility or time to extinction) of a population. Here we critique this reliance on E[r] and show that it fails to capture the effect of temporal random abundance variations on persistence properties. The problem becomes particularly severe when an increase in the amplitude of stochastic temporal environmental variations leads to an increase in E[r], since at the same time it enhances random abundance fluctuations and the two effects are inherently intertwined. In this case, the chance of invasion and the mean extinction time of a population may even go down as E[r] increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the local processes that determine species diversity in ecological communities, fluctuation‐dependent mechanisms that are mediated by temporal variability in the abundances of species populations have received significant attention. Higher temporal variability in the abundances of species populations can increase the strength of temporal niche partitioning but can also increase the risk of species extinctions, such that the net effect on species coexistence is not clear. We quantified this temporal population variability for tree species in 21 large forest plots and found much greater variability for higher latitude plots with fewer tree species. A fitted mechanistic model showed that among the forest plots, the net effect of temporal population variability on tree species coexistence was usually negative, but sometimes positive or negligible. Therefore, our results suggest that temporal variability in the abundances of species populations has no clear negative or positive contribution to the latitudinal gradient in tree species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species populations are subjected to fluctuations in their surrounding environment, and the strength of these fluctuations has been hypothesized to be a major determinant of the extinction risk of these populations. Therefore, a key question is: How does temporal environmental variance affect the extinction risk of species populations? Previous theory based on the dynamics of single populations typically predicts an increased risk of extinction from the effects of environmental variance. However, previous studies have focused mainly on the case where environmental effects are temporally uncorrelated (white environmental noise), whereas such effects are typically correlated (colored environmental noise) in nature. Thus, further work on the case of colored environmental noise is required, but this has been hindered by the analytical intractability of corresponding stochastic models. In our study, we address this limitation by developing a new discrete-time Markov chain model of a species population fluctuating under colored environmental noise, with the simplification that the effects of demographic variance are manifested indirectly as an extinction threshold. This simplifying assumption allows us to derive analytical solutions, which show that the expected extinction time of model species declines with the strength of environmental variance under a variety of different scenarios, reflecting greater extinction risk. Our study thus clarifies the situations under which environmental variance tends to increase extinction risk, and provides a novel analytically tractable framework for modeling temporal environmental variance. We also discuss the possible implications of our results for species richness in ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The compositional complexity of an assemblage is not expressible as a single number; standard measures such as diversities (Hill numbers) and entropies (Rényi entropies and Tsallis entropies) vary in their order q which determines the measures' emphasis on rare or common species. Ranking and comparing assemblages depend on the choice of q. Rather than selecting one or a few measures to describe an assemblage, it is preferable to convey the complete story by presenting a continuous profile, a plot of diversity or entropy as a function of q ≥ 0. This makes it easy to visually compare the compositional complexities of multiple assemblages and to judge the evenness of the relative abundance distributions of the assemblages. In practice, the profile is plotted for all values of q from 0 to q = 3 or 4 (beyond which it generally changes little)., These profiles are usually generated by substituting species sample proportions into the complexity measures. However, this empirical approach typically underestimates the true profile for low values of q, because samples usually miss some of the assemblage's species due to under-sampling. Although bias-reduction methods exist for individual measures of order q = 0, 1 and 2, there has been no analytic method that unifies these bias-corrected estimates into a continuous profile., For incomplete sampling data, this work proposes a novel analytic method to obtain accurate, continuous, low-bias diversity and entropy profiles with focus on low orders of q (0 ≤ q ≤ 3). Our approach is based on reformulating the diversity and entropy of any order q in terms of the successive discovery rates of new species with respect to sample size, that is the successive slopes of the species accumulation curve. A bootstrap method is applied to obtain approximate variances of our proposed profiles and to construct the associated confidence intervals., Extensive simulations from theoretical models and real surveys show that the proposed profiles greatly reduce under-sampling bias and have substantially lower bias and mean-squared error than the empirical profile, especially for q ≤ 1. Our method is also extended to deal with incidence data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28 years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamental challenge in ecology is to understand the mechanisms that govern patterns of relative species abundance. Previous numerical simulations have suggested that complex niche-structured models produce species abundance distributions (SADs) that are qualitatively similar to those of very simple neutral models that ignore differences between species. However, in the absence of an analytical treatment of niche models, one cannot tell whether the two classes of model produce the same patterns via similar or different mechanisms. We present an analytical proof that, in the limit as diversity becomes large, a strong niche model give rises to exactly the same asymptotic form of SAD as the neutral model, and we verify the analytical predictions for a Panamanian tropical forest data set. Our results strongly suggest that neutral processes drive patterns of relative species abundance in high-diversity ecological communities, even when strong niche structure exists. However, neutral theory cannot explain what generates high diversity in the first place, and it may not be valid in low-diversity communities. Our results also confirm that neutral theory cannot be used to infer an absence of niche structure or to explain ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolating the effects of fragmentation per se (i.e., spatial configuration of habitat patches) on species richness is an ongoing challenge as habitat configuration often covaries with the amount of habitat. Consequently, there is a lack of experimental evidence for configurational effects on species richness in the whole landscape. Here, we developed a novel experimental system for testing the independent and interactive effects of habitat area and configuration on tropical intertidal species richness. Our results confirmed the expectation that average species richness would increase monotonically with habitat area. More intriguingly, we found mixed evidence for a non‐monotonic relationship between species richness and fragmentation per se, with the highest richness at intermediate fragmentation configuration, that is, when habitat tiles were placed in a "several‐small" configuration. The effect of habitat configuration was not due to passive sampling (since area was controlled for), variation in total individual abundance, or niche specialization of species to different landscape configurations. We postulate that a combination of processes, including local negative density dependence and dispersal limitation, could give rise to the observed pattern. We emphasize the importance of considering configurational effects on biodiversity at broader spatial scales and for more experimental research to delve into the mechanisms driving the patterns seen here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a research conducted on the role of independent species in local community and analysis the hybrid niche-neutral model with strong niche structure with assigned single niche preference. It informs that neutral drift mechanism is responsible for generating statistical patterns of species abundances in ecosystems.

The evenness of an ecological community affects ecosystem structure, functioning and stability, and has implications for biodiversity conservation. In uneven communities, most species are rare while a few dominant species drive ecosystem-level properties. In even communities, dominance is lower, with possibly many species playing key ecological roles. The dominance aspect of evenness can be measured as a decreasing function of the proportion of species required to make up a fixed fraction (e.g., half) of individuals in a community. Here we sought general rules about dominance in ecological communities by linking dominance mathematically to the parameters of common theoretical species-abundance distributions (SADs). We found that if a community’s SAD was log-series or lognormal, then dominance was almost inevitably high, with fewer than 40% of species required to account for 90% of all individuals. Dominance for communities with an exponential SAD was lower but still typically high, with fewer than 40% of species required to account for 70% of all individuals. In contrast, communities with a gamma SAD only exhibited high dominance when the average species abundance was below a threshold of approximately 100. Furthermore, we showed that exact values of dominance were highly scale-dependent, exhibiting non-linear trends with changing average species abundance. We also applied our formulae to SADs derived from a mechanistic community model to demonstrate how dominance can increase with environmental variance. Overall, our study provides a rigorous basis for theoretical explorations of the dynamics of dominance in ecological communities, and how this affects ecosystem functioning and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Probability distribution of species' extinction time derived for a neutral model. • The distribution nearly always gives overestimates of tree species ages. • Probability distributions of species richness derived for two neutral models. • The distributions show that species richness has low variation in large communities. • Formulae derived for immigration and extinction curves from a neutral model. In community ecology, neutral models make the assumption that species are equivalent, such that species abundances differ only because of demographic stochasticity. Despite their ecological simplicity, neutral models have been found to give reasonable descriptions of expected patterns of biodiversity in communities with many species. Such patterns include the expected total number of species and species-abundance distributions describing the expected number of species in different abundance classes. However, the expected patterns represent only the central tendencies of the full distributions of possible outcomes. Thus, ecological inferences and conclusions based only on expected patterns are incomplete, and may be misleading. Here, we address this issue for the spatially implicit neutral model, by using classic results from birth–death processes to derive (1) the probability distribution of extinction time of a species with given abundance for the metacommunity; (2) the probability distributions of total species richness and number of species with given abundance for both the metacommunity and local community; and (3) the probability distributions of the average immigration and extinction rates in the local community, across different values of total species richness. We illustrate the utility of these probability distributions in providing greater ecological insight via statistical inference. Firstly, we show that under the neutral metacommunity model, there is only 2.65 × 10 − 9 probability that the age of a common tree species in the Amazon is ≤ 3 × 108 yr, which is approximately the oldest estimated age of the first angiosperm. Thus, species ages from the model are unrealistically high. Secondly, for a tree community in a 50 ha plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama, we show that the spatially implicit model can be fitted to observed species richness and an independent estimate of the immigration parameter, with the fitted model predicting a species-abundance distribution close to the observed distribution. Our results complement those using sampling formulae that specify the multivariate probability distribution of species abundances from neutral models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]