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Objectives: To investigate whether low bone mineral density (BMD) and history of fracture at baseline are associated with the development of echogenic carotid plaques over a 10-year follow-up period., Study Design: A prospective cohort study., Main Outcome Measures: Development of echogenic plaques identified by ultrasonography of the carotid arteries., Methods: Among 1048 women aged 40 or more who completed the baseline survey of the Japanese Population-based Osteoporosis (JPOS) cohort study, 500 women who completed the first decade of follow-up and 267 women who completed the second decade of follow-up were included. We identified history and incidence of clinical osteoporotic fracture during the follow-up through medical interviews, and determined vertebral fractures by morphometry of absorptiometric images., Results: We identified 67 (13.4%) and 31 (11.6%) women with echogenic plaques at the end of first and second decade of follow-up, respectively. Participants with echogenic plaques were significantly older, exhibited lower spine BMD, and had a higher prevalence of osteoporotic fracture, diabetes, and hypertension. A generalized estimating equation analysis was used to combine the participants from the two follow-up periods into a single cohort, and showed that osteoporotic BMD and osteoporotic fractures were significantly associated with the development of echogenic plaques, after adjusting for atherosclerosis risk factors (odds ratio (OR): 2.15, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.04, 4.44; OR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.03, 3.28, respectively)., Conclusion: Osteoporotic BMD and osteoporotic fracture history were significantly, and independently, associated with an increased occurrence of echogenic plaques. Ultrasonographic screening of the carotid artery may benefit patients with osteoporosis., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Only a few longitudinal studies have assessed the relationship between bone mineral density (BMD) and arteriosclerosis. This study aimed to determine whether low BMD at baseline is associated with the development of increased arterial stiffness, as evaluated by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), in Japanese women., Methods: A baPWV value of ≥1800 cm/s was adopted as the criterion for increased arterial stiffness, i.e., the outcome of the study. Of the 725 women aged ≥50 years who completed the baseline survey, we excluded the 166 who already met this criterion. Of the remaining women, we analyzed data from the 446 who completed at least one of the follow-up surveys conducted 5 or 10 years after baseline. BMD at the lumbar spine (LS) and total hip (TH) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in the baseline survey. baPWV was measured both at baseline and at follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the independent effect of BMD at baseline on developing the outcome during 10-year follow-up., Results: We identified 166 women who newly developed increased arterial stiffness. The odds ratios (OR) for a 1 SD decrease in BMD at LS and TH for developing the outcome were 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-1.50), and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.14-1.81), respectively, after adjusting for age and systolic blood pressure. After additionally adjusting for baPWV at baseline, the OR for a 1 SD decrease in BMD at TH remained significant (1.33, 95% CI: 1.02-1.72)., Conclusion: Low BMD at TH was significantly associated with the development of increased arterial stiffness during a 10-year follow-up of Japanese women., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Bone development up to early adulthood plays an important role in determining the risk of osteoporosis later in life. However, bone development in children has not been fully documented by longitudinal studies in Japanese children. The purpose of this study is to determine the degree of tracking of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) from pre-puberty to 6-year follow-up, and to determine the target period to achieve maximal peak aBMD. This study was conducted as the pediatric part of a larger cohort study, the Japanese Population-based Osteoporosis (JPOS) study. Of 448 children aged 9-12 years who completed the baseline survey, 225 participated in the follow-up study 6 years later (follow-up rate: 50.2%). aBMD at the forearm was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. aBMD values in pre-pubertal children at baseline showed a significant tracking correlation with aBMD obtained at 6-year follow-up in both genders (boys r = 0.655, girls r = 0.759). Although boys and girls in the lowest quartile of aBMD pre-pubertally had greater annual increases in aBMD from pre-puberty to 6-year follow-up than those in other aBMD quartiles, they still showed the lowest mean aBMD at 6-year follow-up. Children with lower pre-pubertal aBMD showed greater increases in BMD up until 6-year follow-up, but the increase was not great enough to catch up with other children. About 50% of the variance in aBMD at 6-year follow-up was determined by the aBMD achieved during the pre-pubertal period. Activities that increase aBMD are important not only for children during puberty, but also for younger pre-pubertal children.

The impact of smoking on peak bone density has not been conclusively established. We examined how smoking exposure influences bone mineral density (BMD) or the risk of low bone status in premenopausal women. We conducted a baseline survey with a representative sample of Japanese women in 1996. The effect of current and former smokers (ever-smoker) was investigated with 789 premenopausal women aged 20-40 years. The multiple regression with stepwise method was used to identify significant determinants for BMD or the risk of low bone status (T-score < -1) with age, height, weight, calcium intake, coffee consumption, exercise habits, level of daily activity, parity >or= 1, and smoking as explanatory variables. The smoking effect was determined after adjusting for age, height, weight, and significant variables in the multiple regression with stepwise method. Ever-smoker was significantly associated with decreased lumbar BMD adjusted for age, height, and weight. The odds ratio of an ever-smoker for low bone status at the lumbar spine was 2.03 (95% CI 1.12, 5.82) adjusted for age, height, weight, and parity. The odds ratio for low bone status at the lumbar spine was 1.59 (95% CI 0.65, 3.91) and 2.55 (95% CI 1.12, 5.82) in those with less than 3 pack-years of tobacco use and in those with 3 or more pack-years of tobacco use, respectively. These values were adjusted for age, height, weight, and parity using a never-smoker as a reference. Cumulative smoking exposure may be associated with increased risk of low bone status among premenopausal women.

Unlabelled: We analyzed 1,217 women to examine the effect of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors gamma (PPARgamma) C161 --> T on bone status. Among 664 premenopausal women, the C161 --> T is associated with low bone mineral density (BMD) at the total hip and femoral neck. Moreover, the odds ratio for osteopenia or osteoporosis at the femoral neck was 1.98 for premenopausal CT/TT genotypes., Introduction: The impact of PPARgamma on BMD has not been conclusively established. We examined if PPARgamma C161T polymorphism is associated with BMD and its change., Methods: We conducted a baseline survey in 1996 and a 10-year follow-up survey, Japanese Population-based Osteoporosis Study, with a sample population representative of Japanese women. Of these, 1,217 participants in the 1996 survey were analyzed cross-sectionally, while longitudinal analysis was performed on 563 women. A P value < 0.0042 (=0.05/12 for three menstrual statuses and four skeletal sites) was considered statistically significant after Bonferroni correction in multiple testing for cross-sectional analysis., Results: The total hip and femoral neck BMDs were significantly higher for CC genotype than for CT/TT genotypes among 664 premenopausal women (P = 0.0020, P = 0.0022, respectively). Compared to the CC genotype, the odds ratio for osteopenia or osteoporosis (T-scores below -1) at the femoral neck was 1.98 for premenopausal CT/TT genotypes with statistical significance (P = 0.0041). Change of BMD at either skeletal site during the follow-up period was not significantly different for either menstrual status., Conclusions: We conclude that the PPARgamma C161T is associated with low peak bone mass.

We evaluated the value of bone turnover markers, including osteocalcin (OC) and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase in the serum, and type I collagen C-terminal telopeptide and free and total deoxypyridinoline (tDPD) in the urine of fasting patients, in an attempt to predict which osteopenic women [i.e., those with > or = 70% and <80% of the young adult mean (YAM) bone mineral density (BMD)] would progress to the osteoporosis level of BMD (<70% of YAM). Of the 1153 women without defects in bone metabolism who completed the 3-year follow-up, 147, 161, and 144 women were judged by dual X-ray absorptiometry to be osteopenic from baseline measurements of BMD in the spine (LS), hip (TH), and distal radius (DR), respectively. Progression to the osteoporotic level of BMD was noted for 23.8%, 16.1%, and 12.5% of the subjects with osteopenia of the LS, TH, and DR, respectively, while most of them were in the lower half of the osteopenic level of BMD at baseline. Among the subjects in this lower-level osteopenia category, a significantly higher OC level was observed for the subjects with osteoporosis progression at the LS than those without. The subjects with progression at DR showed a significantly higher tDPD level. The association between OC level and disease progression remained unchanged after adjustments for age, body size, and BMD at baseline. The subjects in the upper one-third category of OC levels showed a 6.4 fold greater risk of progression at LS (95% confidence interval, 1.8-23.1) compared with those in the lower one-third category after the adjustments for age, body size, and BMD at baseline. Receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.716 for the OC level in the prediction of osteoporosis progression at LS. The levels of OC and tDPD may be useful in predicting which osteopenic women will progress to osteoporosis.

Introduction: The predictive value of biochemical markers of bone turnover for subsequent change in bone density in a population sample of healthy women with a wide range of ages has not been fully established., Methods: We followed 1,283 women aged 15-79 years at baseline selected randomly from the inhabitants of three areas in Japan for 6 years, and examined 1,130 subjects with no disease or administration of drugs affecting bone metabolism. The annual change in bone density at the spine, total hip, and distal one third of the radius was determined during the follow-up period by dual x-ray absorptiometry and was compared among the groups using different levels of biochemical markers at baseline, including serum osteocalcin (OC) and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bone ALP), free and total (tDPD) forms of immunoreactive deoxypyridinoline, and type I collagen crosslinked C-terminal telopeptide (CTX) in urine., Results: Premenopausal women aged 45 years or older with elevated levels of OC, bone ALP, CTX, or tDPD showed significantly greater bone loss at most skeletal sites during the follow-up period than those with lower levels, after adjustment for the effects of age, height, weight, dietary calcium intake, regular exercise, and current smoking. The greatest coefficient of determination of the model was observed in the association between CTX and bone loss at the hip during the first 3 years of follow-up (42.8%). These subjects were pooled with perimenopausal women at baseline, and those who still menstruated at follow-up in this pooled group showed significant but more modest associations, whereas those who entered menopause during the follow-up period showed clear associations. However, early postmenopausal women with less than 5 or 10 years since menopause showed an association that was limited mostly to the distal radius, and other postmenopausal groups had virtually no association., Conclusion: Biochemical markers of bone turnover may predict bone loss in women undergoing menopausal transition but may not predict bone loss in postmenopausal women.

Using a large-scale representative sample of the Japanese female population, we examined the effects of a single nucleotide polymorphism within a binding site of Cdx-2 in the promoter region of the vitamin D receptor gene on bone mineral density (BMD), and the interactions between this polymorphism and lifestyle factors on BMD. Fifty women were randomly selected from each of the 5-year age-stratified populations (15-79 years) in each of three chosen municipalities as a part of the Japanese Population-based Osteoporosis Study. BMD at the lumbar spine, hip, and distal forearm was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at baseline and again in a follow-up study conducted 3 years later. Information on lifestyle factors was collected in a questionnaire and followed up in interviews. The G-to-A polymorphism within the Cdx-2 binding site was determined by a TaqMan allelic discrimination assay. At baseline, 1,340 women were analyzed. The baseline BMD in the ultradistal forearm in premenopausal women with the GG genotype was significantly lower than in those with other genotypes. There was no association between the Cdx-2 genotype and the change in BMD at any of the skeletal sites. We found significant associations between daily milk consumption and baseline BMD at some skeletal sites but only in subjects with the GG genotype. In conclusion, the Cdx-2 polymorphism alone did not have a substantial effect on BMD in Japanese women. However, this polymorphism might have some effect in women with low calcium intake.

Background: Vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene polymorphisms have been inconsistently associated with bone mineral density (BMD). To precisely evaluate the associations between three VDR gene polymorphisms and BMD, we performed a large-scale representative study of the Japanese female population., Methods: Fifty women were randomly selected from each of the 5-year age stratified populations (15-79 years) in each of the three municipalities examined, as a part of the Japanese population-based osteoporosis (JPOS) baseline study in 1996. In the study, BMD at the lumbar spine, hip, and distal forearm were measured using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Two polymorphisms were determined in the VDR gene locus identified by the restriction endonucleases ApaI and TaqI through a novel allele discrimination method using two different allele-specific fluorescence probes. The other VDR gene polymorphism was identified by the restriction endonuclease FokI using the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Changes in BMD were determined in a follow-up study 3 years after the baseline study., Results: After the exclusion of women who had any medical or menstrual history affecting BMD, 1434 women were analysed. The annual per cent changes in BMD at the lumbar spine over 3 years in subjects with tt genotype in the TaqI polymorphism were different from other genotypes, both in the women who were premenopausal at the follow-up survey (F-premenopausal women) and in the women who were postmenopausal at the baseline survey (B-postmenopausal women). However, the effects of tt genotype on change in BMD were opposite in the two groups. In addition, these associations or tendencies were not observed at the different skeletal sites., Conclusions: This study revealed that none of the individual VDR gene polymorphisms displayed consistent association with baseline BMD or BMD change. Therefore, the effect of the VDR genotype on bone mass is negligible in Japanese women.

To establish the reference values for quantitative ultrasound (QUS) indices (speed of sound [SOS]), and broadband ultrasonic attenuation [BUA]) in healthy Japanese adolescents, and to evaluate the effects of age and body size on QUS in comparison with their effects on bone mineral density (BMD), 632 healthy adolescents aged 12 through 17 years recruited from a larger cohort study (Japanese Population-based Osteoporosis [JPOS] Study), were examined in terms of bone mass measurements by QUS at the calcaneus (Sahara; Hologic) and by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the distal one-third radius and ultradistal forearm. We present sex- and age-specific mean values of the QUS and BMD indices. BMD increased significantly up to 17 years of age in males and up to 16 years in females. However, the age-related change in the QUS indices in males was not as clear as that seen for BMD and no age-related change in the QUS indices was observed in females. Significant positive correlation coefficients between BMD and body size were observed in both sexes even after adjusting for the effect of age. SOS showed no correlation with body size and BUA showed a positive but weak correlation with body size in both sexes. Thus, the relationships of age and body size to BMD and QUS were different from each other, even though the QUS indices had significant positive correlations with BMD, allowing for the effect of age.

Low bone mineral density (BMD) is one of the most important elements for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and screening people with higher risk of fractures. To establish the criterion value of BMD for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and to estimate the prevalence rate of osteoporosis in Japanese women, we performed a Japanese population-based osteoporosis (JPOS) study. The subjects were 4550 women aged 15 through 79 years randomly selected from seven municipalities throughout Japan. The sample size was determined to ensure that the observed mean BMD would remain within 2.5% from the real value with a probability of 0.95 in each of the 5-year age groups. The study comprised bone mass measurements by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the spine (L2-4), hip and distal forearm, body size measurements and detailed interviews on medical and gynecologic history. After excluding those subjects with apparent or suggested abnormalities affecting bone mass from 3985 women (87.6%) who completed the study, 3465 women remained and served as the subjects. We present 5-year age-specific mean values of BMD and cut-off values for the diagnosis of osteoporosis according to World Health Organization (WHO) and the Japanese Society of Bone and Mineral Research (JSBMR) criteria. The cut-off levels at the spine and the distal radius proposed in this study were similar to those proposed by the JSBMR but the cut-off level at the femoral neck in this study was 4.7% higher than that of the JSBMR. The prevalence rates of osteoporosis according to WHO criteria in the present subjects aged 50 through 79 years were calculated as 38.0% at the spine, 11.6% at the femoral neck and 56.8% at the distal one-third site of the radius, and those in the Japanese female population of the same age were estimated to be 35.1%, 9.4% and 51.2%, respectively. A fivefold difference was observed among the prevalence rates at different skeletal sites, which suggests that the different definitions of osteoporosis should be established for the different skeletal sites. The prevalence rate diagnosed at the femoral neck seemed to be lower in the present study than those reported for Caucasians. This might account for a lower incidence rate of hip fracture in Japanese women.

Osteoporosis is a major public health problem in Japan. The second decade is an important period in which to attain a high peak bone mass. However, normal values of forearm bone mineral density (BMD) are not well known in children and adolescents. BMD at one-third of forearm length proximal to the ulnar end plate (BMD1/3) and the ultradistal forearm (BMDud) was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in 1207 (631 males, 576 females) Japanese subjects aged 9-18 years. Puberty onset was assessed by questionnaire, by obtaining the time that pubic hair appeared in males and the time that menstruation started in females. BMD1/3 and BMDud increased steadily with age in males. In relation to puberty development, these parameters also increased after puberty onset although the increase in BMD1/3 was not statistically significant after the fifth year from puberty onset and that of BMDud was not significant after the sixth year from puberty onset. BMD1/3 and BMDud increased with age and then plateaued in females. The increase in BMD1/3 was not statistically significant after 15-16 years of age and that of BMDud was not significant after 13-14 years of age. In relation to puberty development, the increase in BMD1/3 leveled out after the fourth year from puberty onset and that of BMDud also plateaued after the third year from puberty onset. We provide reference values of forearm BMD in Japanese children and adolescents by DXA according to calendar age and puberty development. Peak bone mass of the forearm may be in the late second decade in Japanese females.

Bone mineral density of the lumbar spine (BMD) and biochemical markers for bone turnover were examined to study the mechanisms of age-related and menopause-related bone loss. We measured BMD of the lumbar spine and serum bone alkaline phosphatase (B-AIP) and bone gla-protein (BGP) as markers of bone formation and fasting urinary creatinine-adjusted hydroxyproline (Hyp/Cr) and calcium (Ca/Cr) as those of bone resorption in 166 community-dwelling Japanese women. A highly significant positive correlation between age and each of the biochemical markers, except for Ca/Cr, was observed. This relationship was not linear. Marked elevation in the levels of the markers was found in women in their sixth decade women compared with those in their fifth. All the markers correlated inversely with the BMD and these relationships remained significant after elimination of the effect of age by partialization. When analyzing the subjects in each five-year age group, the positive correlation of Hyp/Cr with Ca/Cr was significant in the subjects aged 45 to 49 and the negative correlation of Hyp/Cr with BMD was significant in those aged 50 to 54. B-AIP correlated positively with BGP in the subjects aged between 50 and 54 and inversely with BMD in those aged between 55 and 59. These correlations were significant. Thus, intercorrelations between the markers were observed five years earlier than were correlations between the markers and BMD. Such associations appeared earlier in terms of the markers for bone resorption than in terms of the markers for bone formation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Objectives: Few prospective cohort studies have evaluated the relationship between dairy product intake frequency and risk of osteoporotic fractures in Asians. This study aimed to investigate the association between habitual dairy product intake and risk of osteoporotic fractures. Design: Secondary analysis of prospective cohort study. Setting: Five municipalities of Japan. Participants: This study included 1,429 postmenopausal Japanese women (age ≥45 years at baseline). Measurements: Baseline milk-intake frequency was obtained using nurse-administered questionnaires. Intakes of yogurt and cheese, and estimated calcium intake, were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Osteoporotic fracture was defined as a clinical fracture diagnosed using radiography. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Over a median follow-up period of 15.1 years (interquartile range [IQR], 10.1–15.4 years; total, 18,118 person-years), 172 women sustained at least one osteoporotic fracture. The proportions of participants with milk intakes <1, 1, and ≥2 cups/d were 34.4%, 48.0%, and 17.6%, respectively. After adjustment for age, frequency of yogurt intake, frequency of cheese intake, body mass index, history of osteoporotic fractures, and frequency of natto intake, the HRs compared with that for milk intake <1 cup/d were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.51–0.98) and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.35–0.92) for 1 cup/d and ≥2 cups/d, respectively. After adjustment for bone mineral density, HR significance for milk intakes ≥2 cups/d remained significant. Yogurt and cheese intakes were not related to the risk of osteoporotic fractures. Conclusion: High habitual milk intake, but not a habitual yogurt or cheese intake is associated with a decreased risk of osteoporotic fractures, independent of bone mineral density, in postmenopausal Japanese women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Areal BMD (aBMD) from DXA is not a sufficiently accurate predictor of fracture. Novel volumetric BMD derived from 3D modeling of the hip from DXA images significantly improved the predictive ability for hip fracture relative to aBMD at the femoral neck, but not aBMD at the total hip. Introduction: To clarify whether volumetric and geometric indices derived from novel three-dimensional (3D) modeling of the hip using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometric (DXA) images improve hip fracture prediction relative to areal bone mineral density (aBMD). Methods: We examined 1331 women who had completed the baseline survey and at least one follow-up survey over 20 years (age 40–79 years at baseline). Each survey included aBMD measurement at the hip by DXA. Volumetric and geometric indices of the hip at baseline and the 10-year follow-up were estimated from DXA images using a 3D modeling algorithm. Incident hip fractures during the 20-year follow-up period were identified through self-report. Cox proportional hazards regression models allowing for repeated measurements of predictors and outcomes were constructed, and their predictive ability for hip fracture was evaluated using areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) over aBMD at the femoral neck (FN) and total hip (TH) as references. Results: During a median follow-up of 19.8 years, 68 incident hip fractures were identified (2.22/1000 person-years). A significantly larger AUC of trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) at the total hip (AUC = 0.741), femoral neck (AUC = 0.748), and intertrochanter (AUC = 0.738) and significant NRI (0.177, 0.149, and 0.195, respectively) were observed compared with FN-aBMD (AUC = 0.701), but not TH-aBMD. Conclusions: vBMD obtained from 3D modeling using routinely obtained hip DXA images significantly improved hip fracture risk prediction over conventional FN-aBMD, but not TH-aBMD. Trial registration: The Japanese Population-Based Osteoporosis (JPOS) Cohort Study was retrospectively registered as UMIN000032869 in the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry on July 1, 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We found that community-dwelling women with 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <20 ng/mL compared to levels ≥20 ng/mL indicated increased risks for clinical, non-vertebral, and fragility fractures during 5 years. Furthermore, the increased risks of non-vertebral fractures remained significant in 10 and 15 years after adjusting for age and bone mineral density. Introduction: We examined whether total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) levels are associated with fracture risk over 15 years in a Japanese female cohort. Methods: Of 1437 community-dwelling women aged ≥50 years in the baseline survey, 1236 provided information regarding fractures during a 15-year follow-up period. The analysis included 1211 women without early menopause or diseases affecting bone metabolism. Results: Over 15 years, 269 clinical (224 non-vertebral, 149 fragility) fracture events were confirmed. Incidence rates categorized by 25(OH)D levels (<10, 10-20, 20-30, and ≥30 ng/mL) indicated a significant divergence for any clinical fractures in 5 years (log rank test p = 0.016) and for non-vertebral fractures in 5, 10, and 15 years ( p < 0.001, p = 0.001, p = 0.017, respectively). Hazard ratios (HRs) for 25(OH)D levels <10 and 10-20 ng/mL compared to levels ≥30 ng/mL during 5 years indicated significances for clinical fractures (HR 4.93 with p = 0.009, HR 3.00 with p = 0.034) and for non-vertebral fractures (HR 6.55 with p = 0.005, HR 3.49 with p = 0.036). Those with levels <20 ng/mL compared to those with levels ≥20 ng/mL indicated significant increased risks for clinical fractures (HR 1.72 with p = 0.010), non-vertebral fractures (HR 2.45 with p < 0.001), and fragility fractures (HR 2.00 with p = 0.032) in 5 years. The HR of non-vertebral fractures for levels <20 ng/mL remained significant during 15 years (HR 1.42 with p = 0.012) after adjustment for age and femoral neck bone mineral density. Conclusions: Low 25(OH)D levels, especially <20 ng/mL, were associated with elevated fracture risks in Japanese women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We evaluated the predictive ability of FRAX® in a cohort of 815 Japanese women. The observed 10-year fracture rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by FRAX®. The predictive ability of FRAX® without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) was similar to that with femoral neck BMD. Introduction: We evaluated the ability of the Japanese version of FRAX®, a World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, to predict the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture. Methods: Self-reported major osteoporotic fracture ( N = 43) and hip fracture ( N = 4) events were ascertained in the 10-year follow-up survey of the Japanese Population-Based Osteoporosis Cohort Study. Participants were 815 women aged 40-74 years at the baseline survey. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis compared FRAX® with multiple logistic models based on age, body weight, and femoral neck BMD. Results: The number of observed major osteoporotic or hip fracture events did not differ significantly from the number of events predicted by the FRAX® model (with or without BMD). The area under the curve (AUC) value for FRAX® with BMD for predicting major osteoporotic fractures was similar to that of a logistic model with age, body weight, and BMD (0.69 vs. 0.71, respectively; p = 0.198); the AUC of FRAX® with BMD for predicting hip fractures was similar to that of a model based on age and BMD (0.88 vs. 0.89, respectively; p = 0.164). The AUCs of FRAX® without BMD for predicting major osteoporotic and hip fractures were similar to those with BMD (0.69 vs. 0.67, respectively; p = 0.121; 0.88 vs. 0.86, respectively; p = 0.445). Conclusions: The Japanese version of FRAX® without BMD estimated the 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in this population with few clinical risk factors as similar to that of FRAX® with BMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]