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This paper presents evidence that much of the high rate of age-related height loss in women reported in cross-sectional studies is actually a cohort effect rather than an aging effect. Data from a large cross-sectional study of healthy, white American women indicate that there has been a gain in peak adult height of 1.0 cm per decade for several decades from 1900 through 1965. Data from the HES, HANES I, and HANES II studies concur on this point. By contrast, data from a longitudinal study of 191 healthy white U.S. women show only a trivial rate of decline from peak adult height in the fifth and sixth decades of life. In an unselected population, some apparent height loss with age is probably due to disease processes, such as vertebral collapse. Caution is needed in using aging to interpret differences in height and in height-dependent variables, such as bone density, in cross-sectional studies.

The purpose of this study was to compare the ability of ultrasound velocity measurement with that of single photon absorptiometry to determine the odds of history of fracture since age 40, for a population-based study. To do this we computed odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for 809 women and 502 men, aged 50 years and older, who are participants in the prospective phase of the Saunders County Bone Quality Study. These participants received both the ultrasound and single photon absorptiometry bone measurements at the initiation of the study. In addition, a history of all fractures that had occurred to participants since age 40 was obtained. The two bone assessment methods were compared by examining the magnitude of the odds ratios, to determine which produces the highest estimate of the probability of odds of fracture, and by examining widths of the respective confidence intervals to show which estimate of odds ratio is the most precise. Ultrasound velocity estimates a higher probability of odds of both low-trauma fractures and all fractures than distal radius and ulna bone mineral content, but lower than bone mineral density at the same sites for both women and men. However, the ultrasound measure is more precise than bone mineral density, but less precise than bone mineral content. We conclude that ultrasound velocity is as good as single photon absorptiometry in estimating odds of fracture.

Osteoporotic fractures (OFs) are a major public health problem. Direct evidence of the importance and, particularly, the magnitude of genetic determination of OF per se is essentially nonexistent. Colles' fractures (CFs) are a common type of OF. In a metropolitan white female population in the midwestern United States, we found significant genetic determination of CF. The prevalence (K) of CF is, respectively, 11.8% (+/- SE 0.7%) in 2471 proband women aged 65.55 years (0.21), 4.4% (0.3%) in 3803 sisters of the probands, and 14.6% (0.7%) in their mothers. The recurrence risk (K0), the probability that a woman will suffer CF if her mother has suffered CF is 0.155 (0.017). The recurrence risk (Ks), the probability that a sister of a proband woman will suffer CF given that her proband sister has suffered CF is 0.084 (0.012). The relative risk lambda (the ratio of the recurrence risk to K), which measures the degree of genetic determination of complex diseases such as CF, is 1.312 (0.145; lambda 0) for a woman with an affected mother and 1.885 (0.276; lambda s) for a woman with an affected sister. A lambda-value significantly greater than 1.0 indicates genetic determination of CF. The terms lambda 0 and lambda s are related to the genetic variances of CF. These parameters translate into a significant and moderately high heritability (0.254 [0.118]) for CF. These parameters were estimated by a maximum likelihood method that we developed, which provides a general tool for characterizing genetic determination of complex diseases. In addition, we found that women without CF had significantly higher bone mass (adjusted for important covariates such as age, weight, etc.) than women with CF.

Both retrospectively and prospectively designed studies consistently show low bone mass and/or bone mineral content (BMC) to be risk factor for low-trauma fractures in postmenopausal women. Along with the reports of such studies there has been concern expressed that BMC measurements overlap between fracture groups, i.e., some women with high BMC develop fractures and some women with low BMC do not. In these commonly used epidemiologic study designs, BMC does not discriminate between those who have and have not experienced the untoward event at some level of the exposure factor. The ability to discriminate is more properly determined by the sensitivity and specificity of the measured value. To contrast the concepts of risk and sensitivity, a nested case-control study was conducted within a 24-year cohort study of women at risk for osteoporosis. We found that for each 1.0 decrement of BMC z-scores, the adjusted relative risk for the prospective study design was 1.67, while the odds ratio obtained from the most recent BMC z-score measurements was 1.87. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calculated from the nested case-control study data, showed that BMC z-scores, measured after low-trauma fracture, have both low sensitivity and low specificity to detect existing fracture status.

We examined directly the effects of a moderate dosage of caffeine (400 mg/d) on the calcium economy in 16 healthy premenopausal women in a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover design. The subjects took divided doses of caffeine (100 mg/tablet) or identical-appearing placebos with decaffeinated coffee on personalized schedules for treatment periods lasting 19 d each and with 37-d interstudy intervals. We randomized the treatment sequence among subjects and studied them as inpatients under metabolic-balance conditions. We found no significant effects of caffeine on fractional calcium absorption, endogenous fecal calcium, or urine calcium, whether examined day by day or cumulatively. Although the mean balance shift was negative, the change was not significantly different from zero. There was evidence of altered bone remodeling, with slight decreases in bone accretion, bone resorption, and calcium pool turnover.

The accrual of optimal bone mass during childhood and adolescence is essential for the formation of a skeleton that will meet structural needs throughout life. Assessing bone health of children is becoming increasingly important in order to identify those who require interventions, and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) has appeal for these assessments. The purpose of this prospective study was to characterize changes in QUS values in 328 healthy children and adolescents over a 3-yr period. Measurements of QUS, height, weight, nutrient intake, fracture history, and Tanner stage were made at baseline and 3 yr later. Both females and males experienced significant increases in QUS values during the study. The rate of change of QUS peaked at an earlier age in females than in males, and maximum accumulation rates in both genders occurred at ages at which highest accumulation rates are seen with densitometry. Females exhibited higher QUS values than males during puberty, also similar to results for dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). This is the first report of prospective data of QUS in children and adolescents. Our findings that QUS values change during childhood and adolescence in a manner similar to DXA values, the "gold standard," provide support for the validity of using QUS to assess bone health in children and adolescents.

The likelihood of low trauma fracture in the elderly is highly predictable by peak bone mass (PBM) at age approximately 25-50 yr. We estimated the magnitude of genetic determination of the variation and covariation of PBM of the spine and hip (adjusted by age, gender, and ethnicity) in 47 independent healthy full-sib pairs and 27 healthy mother-offspring pairs. For the spine and hip, the narrow-sense heritabilities (h(2)) (mean +/- SE) were 0.76 +/- 0.34 and 0.84 +/- 0.36, respectively, when estimated from full sibs, and 0.86 +/- 0.38 and 0.84 +/- 0.39, respectively, when estimated from parent-offspring. Some genetic loci underlying PBM variation at the hip and spine are the same or closely linked, as is reflected by the high genetic correlation of 0.95 +/- 0.05 between them when estimated from full sibs, and 0.57 +/- 0.27 when estimated from parent-offspring, respectively. Generally, common familial environmental effects shared by relatives may bias these estimates. However, these effects may be small, since our results reported herein and those in other earlier studies indicate that common familial environmental effects are probably negligible in causing similarity of bone mass among family members. The correlation of bone mass among randomly sampled couples living in the same household is small and nonsignificant as measured either by densitometry at the radius and ulna or by quantitative ultrasound at the patella. The problem of shared environmental effects notwithstanding, we conclude that much of the PBM variation and covariation at the hip and spine is determined genetically.

We tested the spine antifracture and bone sparing efficacy of 1.2 g/day of oral calcium as carbonate in two groups of elderly women, one with prevalent fractures (PF, n = 94) on entry and the other without (NPF, n = 103). It was a prospective randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in mostly rural communities in women over age 60 who were living independently and were consuming1 g/day of calcium. We obtained annual lateral spine radiographs and semiannual forearm bone density over 4.3 +/- 1.1 years and determined vertebral fractures by radiographic morphometry augmented by physician assessment. In the PF group, 15 of 53 subjects on calcium had incident fractures, compared with 21 of 41 on placebo (p = 0.023, chi2). Calcium did not reduce the rate of incident fractures in the NPF group. Those with a prevalent fracture on entry and not treated with calcium were 2.8 times more likely to experience an incident fracture than all others. Change in the forearm bone mass on placebo in the PF group was -1.24 +/- 2.41%/year compared with +0.31 +/- 1.80%/year on calcium (p0.001). In the NPF group, the difference was less: -0.39 +/- 2.08%/year versus 0.00 +/- 1.64%/year (p = 0.2). We conclude that in elderly postmenopausal women with spine fractures and selfselected calcium intakes of1 g/day, a calcium supplement of 1.2 g/day reduces the incidence of spine fractures and halts measurable bone loss.

Ultrasonic measures of bone have been available for clinical research purposes for nearly 10 years, yet there still seems to be a need to compare ultrasound with the accepted gold standard of densitometry. Recently there have been published reports showing that ultrasound measures are associated with both appendicular and hip fracture, in particular after adjustment for densitometry measures. We present here a comparison between speed of sound through the patella and forearm bone densitometry, using their association with prevalent vertebral fractures in a population-based study of women and men. The prospective phase of the Saunders Bone Quality Study includes 1401 women and men who had baseline spine radiographs, patellar ultrasound, and forearm densitometry measurements. Multivariate forward logistic regression was used to determine the age-adjusted odds of vertebral fracture, the number of fractures, and the severity of these fractures, when patellar ultrasound and each of four forearm densitometry measures were entered into the model. Age is the most important factor associated with vertebral fractures, their number, and severity for women, while age is not significantly related to vertebral fractures for men. Of the bone status measures, patellar ultrasound entered the logistic regression models more consistently than any other measure except ulnar bone mineral density for women. The ultrasound measure entered every model for men. We conclude that patellar ultrasound velocity is more consistently associated with the odds of vertebral fractures than radius bone mineral content.

The Saunders County Bone Quality Study was designed to determine the feasibility of ultrasonic bone measurement, at the patella, as a predictor of low-trauma fractures in a runal population-based study. At the first visit of this 4-year longitudinal study, anthropometric and clinical measurements and medical, surgical, and fracture histories were obtained for the 1428 participants (899 women and 529 men). Explored risk factors for low-trauma fractures included age, sex, calcium intake, alcohol and caffeine ingestion, tobacco use, body mass and grip strength, age of menopause, estrogen replacement therapy, propensity to fall, distal radius and ulna bone mineral content, and bone density. Forward multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that lower ultrasound values are more consistently associated with reported low-trauma appendicular fractures than the commonly reported forearm absorptiometry measures of radius mineral content and density. When ultrasound, age, and the extra skeletal risk factors were included in an additional multivariate model, only age and ultrasound were significantly associated with appendicular fracture history in women (P=0.0003), whereas only ultrasound was associated in the men (P=0.001). We conclude that ultrasound is a better measure of association with reported low-trauma fractures than the commonly reported forearm SPA measures. Even after adjustment for many of the extra skeletal risk factors, low AVU is highly associated with low-trauma fracture status for both women and men.

Normative population data are reported here for velocity of ultrasound in tibial cortical bone in a population-based sample of both men and women (n = 371). The cortical measurement is highly precise with reproducibility of the order of 0.5%. As with heel and patellar trabecular velocity, tibial cortical velocity declines with age from the fourth through the ninth decades. The rate is 1.7 m/s per year in men and 4.1 m/s per year in women. Tibial cortical velocity values correlate with patellar velocity and with forearm mineral, with correlation coefficients ranging from + 0.46 to + 0.54 in women and + 0.27 to + 0.43 in men (P0.002 for all). Tibial velocity averaged 77-104 m/s lower (2-3%: equal to about 1 SD of the young adult normal distribution) in individuals with a history of low-energy appendicular fractures (P0.05), and the difference remained significant after adjusting for age. However, there were no perceptible differences in tibial velocity for those with and without vertebral fractures. Odds ratios derived from logistic regression showed an approximate twofold increase in likelihood of low-energy appendicular fracture for every standard deviation decrement in velocity. Comparison of tibial velocity with patellar velocity and forearm density in the same individuals revealed tibial velocity to be more strongly associated with appendicular fractures than patellar velocity for women and about the same for men, and less strongly associated than patellar velocity for vertebral fractures. We conclude that tibial cortical velocity provides useful information about bone status in populations at risk for osteoporosis, and seems particularly well suited for assessing appendicular fracture risk.

Objective. —To test whether bone mass increases in healthy nonpregnant white women during early adult life after cessation of linear growth; and to test whether various self-chosen levels of physical activity and nutrient intake or use of oral contraceptives influences this increase in bone mass. Design. —Longitudinal prospective study of up to 5 years of 156 healthy college-aged women full-time students attending professional schools in universities in the Omaha, Neb, area. Setting. —University medical center. Participants. —A convenience sample of healthy women students from Omahaarea professional schools. Any candidate with an illness, condition, or medication (except oral contraceptives) thought to affect general health or bone mass was excluded. Interventions. —None. Outcome Measures. —Clinical and family histories of disease, particularly osteoporosis; oral contraceptive use; bone mineral densities of the spine, forearm, and total body by dual- and single-photon absorptiometry; estimates of nutrient intake by repeated 7-day diet diaries; and measures of physical activity using a physical activity monitor. Results. —The median gain in bone mass for the third decade of life, expressed as a percentage per decade, was 4.8% for the forearm, 5.9% for lumbar bone mineral content, 6.8% for lumbar bone mineral density, and 12.5% for total body bone mass (P Conclusions. —Gain in bone mass occurs in healthy young women during the third decade of life. Physical activity and dietary calcium intake both exert a positive effect on this bone gain. Use of oral contraceptives exerts a further independent positive effect. Changes in life-style among college-aged women, involving relatively modest increases in physical activity and calcium intake, may significantly reduce the risk of osteoporosis late in life. (JAMA. 1992;268:2403-2408)