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When dealing with longitudinal data, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) are often used by researchers. However, LMMs are not always the most adequate models, especially if we expect a nonlinear relationship between the outcome and a continuous covariate. To allow for more flexibility, we propose the use of a semiparametric mixed-effects model to evaluate the overall treatment effect on the hemodynamic responses during bone graft healing and build a prediction model for the healing process. The model relies on a closed-form expectation–maximization algorithm, where the unknown nonlinear function is estimated using a Lasso-type procedure. Using this model, we were able to estimate the effect of time for individual mice in each group in a nonparametric fashion and the effect of the treatment while accounting for correlation between observations due to the repeated measurements. The treatment effect was found to be statistically significant, with the autograft group having higher total hemoglobin concentration than the allograft group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blood flow changes during bone graft healing have the potential to provide important information about graft success, as the nutrients, oxygen, circulating cells and growth factors essential for integration are delivered by blood. However, longitudinal monitoring of blood flow changes during graft healing has been a challenge due to limitations in current techniques. To this end, non-invasive diffuse correlation tomography (DCT) was investigated to enable longitudinal monitoring of three-dimensional blood flow changes in deep tissue. Specific to this study, longitudinal blood flow changes were utilized to predict healing outcomes of common interventions for massive bone defects using a common mouse femoral defect model. Weekly blood flow changes were non-invasively measured using a diffuse correlation tomography system for 9 weeks in three types of grafts: autografts (N = 7), allografts (N = 6) and tissue-engineered allografts (N = 6). Healing outcomes were quantified using an established torsion testing method 9 weeks after transplantation. Analysis of the spatial and temporal blood flow reveals that major differences among the three groups were captured in weeks 1–5 after graft transplantation. A multivariate model to predict maximum torque by relative blood flow changes over 5 weeks after graft transplantation was built using partial least squares regression. The results reveal lower bone strength correlates with greater cumulative blood flow over an extended period of time (i.e., 1–5 weeks). The current research demonstrates that DCT-measured blood flow changes after graft transplantation can be utilized to predict long-term healing outcomes in a mouse femoral graft model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]