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The change of current pools of soil C in Norway spruce ecosystems in Sweden were studied using a process-based model (CoupModel). Simulations were conducted for four sites representing different regions covering most of the forested area in Sweden and representing annual mean temperatures from 0.7°C to 7.1°C. The development of both tree layer and field layer (understory) was simulated during a 100-year period using data on standing stock volumes from the Swedish Forest Inventory to calibrate tree growth using different assumptions regarding N supply to the plants. The model successfully described the general patterns of forest stand dynamics along the Swedish climatic transect, with decreasing tree growth rates and increasing field layer biomass from south to north. However, the current tree growth pattern for the northern parts of Sweden could not be explained without organic N uptake and/or enhanced mineralisation rates compared to the southern parts. Depending on the assumption made regarding N supply to the tree, different soil C sequestration rates were obtained. The approach to supply trees with both mineralised N and organic N, keeping the soil C:N ratio constant during the simulation period was found to be the most realistic alternative. With this approach the soils in the northern region of Sweden lost 5 g C m−2 year−1, the soils in the central region lost 2 g C m−2 year−1, and the soils in the two southern regions sequestered 9 and 23 g C m−2 year−1, respectively. In addition to climatic effects, the feedback between C and N turnover plays an important role that needs to be more clearly understood to improve estimates of C sequestration in boreal forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simulation study based on recent regional climate scenarios for Sweden investigated possible changes in carbon (C) dynamics and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of Swedish Norway spruce forest ecosystems. Four sites, representative of well-drained soils in four regions, were included. Stand development was simulated for a 100-year rotation period using a coupled model describing abiotic and biotic processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Two IPCC climate change scenarios, corresponding to a mean annual temperature increase of about 2°C (A2) or 3°C (B2) from the reference period 1961–1990 to a new period 2061–2090, were considered. Annual maximum snow depth decreased with the increase in air temperature, whereas maximum soil frost depth and mean annual soil temperature showed only small changes, especially for the sites in northern Sweden. Simulations suggested that in the warmer climate, gross primary production (GPP) increased by 24–32% in northern Sweden and by 32–43% in the south. In the north, the increase was related to the combined effect of air and soil temperature extending the growing season, whereas in the south it was mainly governed by increased N availability due to increased soil temperature. NEE increased by about 20% (A2) or 25% (B2) at all sites, more or less solely due to increased accumulation of C in the tree biomass (including harvest residues), since changes in soil C were small compared with the current climate. Both light use efficiency and water use efficiency were improved in the future climate scenarios, despite increases in atmospheric CO2 not being considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]