1. Optimizing Concussion Care Seeking: Using Machine Learning to Predict Delayed Concussion Reporting.
- Author
-
Kroshus-Havril E, Leeds DD, McAllister TW, Kerr ZY, Knight K, Register-Mihalik JK, Lynall RC, D'Lauro C, Ho Y, Rahman M, Broglio SP, McCrea MA, Schmidt JD, Port N, Campbell D, Putukian M, Chrisman SPD, Cameron KL, Susmarski AJ, Goldman JT, Benjamin H, Buckley T, Kaminski T, Clugston JR, Feigenbaum L, Eckner JT, Mihalik JP, Kontos A, McDevitt J, Brooks MA, Rowson S, Miles C, Lintner L, Kelly L, and Master C
- Subjects
- Humans, Case-Control Studies, Male, Female, Young Adult, Military Personnel, Adolescent, United States, Patient Acceptance of Health Care, Athletes, Adult, Brain Concussion diagnosis, Machine Learning, Athletic Injuries diagnosis
- Abstract
Background: Early medical attention after concussion may minimize symptom duration and burden; however, many concussions are undiagnosed or have a delay in diagnosis after injury. Many concussion symptoms (eg, headache, dizziness) are not visible, meaning that early identification is often contingent on individuals reporting their injury to medical staff. A fundamental understanding of the types and levels of factors that explain when concussions are reported can help identify promising directions for intervention., Purpose: To identify individual and institutional factors that predict immediate (vs delayed) injury reporting., Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3., Methods: This study was a secondary analysis of data from the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium study. The sample included 3213 collegiate athletes and military service academy cadets who were diagnosed with a concussion during the study period. Participants were from 27 civilian institutions and 3 military institutions in the United States. Machine learning techniques were used to build models predicting who would report an injury immediately after a concussive event (measured by an athletic trainer denoting the injury as being reported "immediately" or "at a delay"), including both individual athlete/cadet and institutional characteristics., Results: In the sample as a whole, combining individual factors enabled prediction of reporting immediacy, with mean accuracies between 55.8% and 62.6%, depending on classifier type and sample subset; adding institutional factors improved reporting prediction accuracies by 1 to 6 percentage points. At the individual level, injury-related altered mental status and loss of consciousness were most predictive of immediate reporting, which may be the result of observable signs leading to the injury report being externally mediated. At the institutional level, important attributes included athletic department annual revenue and ratio of athletes to athletic trainers., Conclusion: Further study is needed on the pathways through which institutional decisions about resource allocation, including decisions about sports medicine staffing, may contribute to reporting immediacy. More broadly, the relatively low accuracy of the machine learning models tested suggests the importance of continued expansion in how reporting is understood and facilitated., Competing Interests: One or more of the authors has declared the following potential conflict of interest or source of funding: This work was supported by the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs endorsed by the DoD through the Psychological Health and Traumatic Brain Injury Research Program under award No. W81XWH-20-2-0044. This publication was also made possible with support from the Grand Alliance Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium, funded in part by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) and DoD. The US Army Medical Research Acquisition Activity is the awarding and administering acquisition office. E.K-H. has received consulting fees from the NCAA. J.K.R-M. has consulted for Allied Health Education (paid) and has received speaker honoraria and travel reimbursements for talks given. She served previously (unpaid) on USA Football’s Football Development Council. R.C.L. has received current or past funding from the National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment and the National Football League (NFL). S.P.B. has received current or past research funding from NFL/Under Armour/GE, Simbex, and ElMindA; has consulted for US Soccer (paid), US Cycling (unpaid), the University of Calgary SHRed Concussions external advisory board (unpaid), and medicolegal litigation; and has received speaker honoraria and travel reimbursements for talks given. He is coauthor of Biomechanics of Injury (3rd ed) and has a patent pending on “Brain Metabolism Monitoring Through CCO Measurements Using All-Fiber-Integrated Super-Continuum Source” (US application No. 17/164,490). M.A.M. has current or past research funding from NFL and Abbott Laboratories. AOSSM checks author disclosures against the Open Payments Database (OPD). AOSSM has not conducted an independent investigation on the OPD and disclaims any liability or responsibility relating thereto.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF