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Livestock production plays a vital role in the global economy, yet little is known about how climate change will affect the industry. Studies of crop agriculture may not translate to livestock agriculture due to differences in the set of potential adaptation strategies. Ranchers' responses to changing weather and climate are particularly relevant in the Brazilian Amazon, where the dry season is increasing by as much as 0.6 days per year. A longer dry season increases production risks as animals may succumb to starvation, lack of water, or heat stress. I pair transaction data and weather shocks to show that ranchers strategically sold animals prior to the dry season, in response to two predictors of an extreme dry season: sporadic rainfall and high temperatures prior to the dry season. Ranchers sold animals for both fattening and slaughter in response to sporadic rainfall prior. Nearly half of animals initially sold for fattening were sold for slaughter 90 days later. In contrast, ranchers responded to high temperatures solely by selling for slaughter, suggesting that current on‐farm technologies are insufficient to prevent losses from heat stress. The overall supply increased in years with sporadic rainfall and high temperatures, but the supply fell by a greater amount the following year. My results suggest that farmers are currently not fully insulated from the effects of a severe dry season. As severe dry seasons become more frequent, the industry will likely increasingly rely on feedlots and need additional methods to cope with heat stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We present a statistical analysis of 113,000 cattle suppliers in the Amazon. • 22 factors shed light on how supply chain characteristics relates to deforestation. • Properties with deforestation sell fewer cattle and earlier in the supply chain. • They are located in remote locations and have a high percent of remaining forest. • Our findings can be used to monitor properties where deforestation is more likely. Deforestation for cattle production persists in the Brazilian Amazon despite ongoing efforts by the public and private sectors to combat it. The complexity of the cattle supply chain, which we describe in depth here, creates challenges for the landmark Zero-Deforestation Cattle Agreements in particular and for enforcement of deforestation policies in general. Here, we present a holistic analysis that is increasingly relevant as the number of policies, initiatives, and markets affecting the region increases. We provide the first property-level analysis of which ranchers decided to deforest in the last decade and identify the characteristics that are most related to deforestation. We rely on newly available animal transit and property boundary data to examine 113,000 properties in the three major cattle-producing states in the Brazilian Amazon. We consider characteristics related to a property's role in the supply chain, location, land characteristics, and the policy environment. We find that deforestation is most likely to occur on properties that sell fewer cattle and earlier in the supply chain, are located in remote locations, and have a high percent of remaining forest. Our results can be used to improve enforcement of existing policies by targeting resources to properties and location where deforestation is more likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]