1. Validation of the BOADICEA model in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers.
- Author
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Yang X, Mooij TM, Leslie G, Ficorella L, Andrieu N, Kast K, Singer CF, Jakubowska A, van Gils CH, Tan YY, Engel C, Adank MA, van Asperen CJ, Ausems MGEM, Berthet P, Collee MJ, Cook JA, Eason J, Spaendonck-Zwarts KYV, Evans DG, Gómez García EB, Hanson H, Izatt L, Kemp Z, Lalloo F, Lasset C, Lesueur F, Musgrave H, Nambot S, Noguès C, Oosterwijk JC, Stoppa-Lyonnet D, Tischkowitz M, Tripathi V, Wevers MR, Zhao E, van Leeuwen FE, Schmidt MK, Easton DF, Rookus MA, and Antoniou AC
- Subjects
- Humans, Female, Middle Aged, Adult, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Risk Assessment, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide genetics, Breast Neoplasms genetics, Breast Neoplasms epidemiology, BRCA2 Protein genetics, BRCA1 Protein genetics, Heterozygote, Genetic Predisposition to Disease
- Abstract
Background: No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres., Methods: We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 BRCA1 and 1365 BRCA2 PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information., Results: The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in BRCA1 or BRCA2 PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of BRCA1/2 PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options., Conclusion: BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: ACA and DFE are named creators of the BOADICEA model which has been licensed by Cambridge Enterprise (University of Cambridge). All the other authors declare no conflict of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)
- Published
- 2024
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