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Introduction: The escalating cost of modern healthcare is threatening the fundamental "free at the point of delivery" principle of the UK National Health Services. A new remuneration system using a fixed tariff for pre-assigned diagnostic groups caters poorly for the heterogeneity of burn injuries. This study was to develop a system for Patient Level Costing (PLC), the first steps of which were to determine the true cost of burn care at service level.Methods: Detailed interrogation was conducted of the cost of care in our Burns & Plastic Surgery Department. Costs were determined through the amalgamation of two fundamental methodologies: (1) Top-Down Costing (from detailed budgetary analysis for the hospital) and (2) Bottom-Up Costing (detailed itemised costing of staff, equipment, drugs, consumables & maintenance). These costs were categorised & using various apportionment tools, traced to specific care areas.Results: We demonstrated that the accuracy of costs derived by host organisations cannot be relied upon (our Burn Service was 62% more expensive than estimated by our host organisation), which therefore questions the accuracy of most published work on burn care costing based upon these assumptions. Using our costing model, an analysis was made of the cost of running the Department with zero activity but "open & ready for business". Costs such as drugs and consumables were thus removed. This demonstrated that despite no clinical activity, costs still remained at 90% of full occupancy cost and are thus fixed costs.Conclusions: We hope application of this new system of Patient Level Costing to burn care will avoid the threatened viability of burn services imposed by changes in remuneration, although it will inevitably be an iterative process. A fuller understanding of the true cost of healthcare, facilitates service development and planning, both at a local and national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction The Coroners Department (CD) records hold important demographic, injury and death details for victims of burn injuries derived from various sources yet this rich source of data has been infrequently utilised previously in describing the epidemiology of burn related mortality. The aim of this study was to use CD data to comprehensively investigate burn related mortality in the Greater Manchester region of United Kingdom. Materials and methods A retrospective study design was used to collect data for deceased demographics, injury details, site of death and cause of death from four CD offices in GM over an 11-year period (2000–2010 inclusive). Office of National Statistics (ONS) population metrics were used to calculate age- and gender-specific population denominators and mortality rates. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) was used to correlate mortality with deprivation. Linear regression and Pearson's/Spearman's rank correlation were used to calculate trends and correlations. Poisson regression was used to calculate relative risk (IRR) between age- and gender groups. Results There were 314 recorded deaths in the region over the study period and thermal injury was 3-times less likely to result in death in 2010 compared to 2000. The largest proportion of these deaths (24.8%) was comprised of individuals ≥75 years in age. The relative risk of mortality in males was nearly 1.5-times higher and a significant majority of victims (77%) sustained their burn injury at their own home/residence. Inhalation injury without cutaneous burns was the most frequent type of injury (33%) and accidental house fires caused nearly half (49%) the injuries resulting in death. Sixty-five percent of deaths during this period were recorded to have occurred outside of regional burn service (RBS) hospitals and the commonest cause of immediate death on the death certificates was “inhalation of products of combustion” (32.1%). Within the >75 years age group the risk of death significantly increased with every quintile reduction in deprivation. Conclusion Our data shows that despite reducing overall mortality, certain age groups and causation patterns are associated with significantly higher risks of mortality in our region. Further reduction in burn mortality should focus on the use of prevention efforts with established effectiveness in these high-risk groups. In addition, as a significant proportion of deaths occur outside a burn service environment hence epidemiology data based solely on mortality statistics from burn services will underestimate true burn related mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study of burns patients from two eruptions of Merapi volcano, Java, in 1994 and 2010, is the first detailed analysis to be reported of thermal injuries in a large series of hospitalised victims of pyroclastic surges, one of the most devastating phenomena in explosive eruptions. Emergency planners in volcanic crises in populated areas have to integrate the health sector into disaster management and be aware of the nature of the surge impacts and the types of burns victims to be expected in a worst scenario, potentially in numbers and in severity that would overwhelm normal treatment facilities. In our series, 106 patients from the two eruptions were treated in the same major hospital in Yogyakarta and a third of these survived. Seventy-eight per cent were admitted with over 40% TBSA (total body surface area) burns and around 80% of patients were suspected of having at least some degree of inhalation injury as well. Thirty five patients suffered over 80% TBSA burns and only one of these survived. Crucially, 45% of patients were in the 40-79% TBSA range, with most suspected of suffering from inhalation injury, for whom survival was most dependent on the hospital treatment they received. After reviewing the evidence from recent major eruptions and outlining the thermal hazards of surges, we relate the type and severity of the injuries of these patients to the temperatures and dynamics of the pyroclastic surges, as derived from the environmental impacts and associated eruption processes evaluated in our field surveys and interviews conducted by our multi-disciplinary team. Effective warnings, adequate evacuation measures, and political will are all essential in volcanic crises in populated areas to prevent future catastrophes on this scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. Methods An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. Results All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. Discussion The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Traumatic injury is the leading cause of death in the first four decades of life. However, current estimates for traumatic injury rates fail to take into account burns. The aim of this work was to estimate the contribution of burns to serious traumatic injury in England and Wales. We have determined population-based burns rates using the International Burn Injury Database (iBID, www.ibidb.org) which collects data from regional burn centres, and non-burns rate using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) which collects data from emergency departments (ED, www.TARN.ac.uk). Due to incomplete national coverage of TARN, non-burns rates were estimated using data from 94 EDs that contributed data to TARN. Both non-burn and burns rates were calculated nationally and for each regional burn service catchment area (n =17). Only serious injuries (≥72h admission or death) were included. Burns rate was 4.7 and non-burns rate 82.7 per 100,000 per year nationally. Burns therefore contributed 5.4% of all serious traumatic injuries. Contribution of burns in different regional burn service catchment areas was between 1.5% and 12%. This data suggests that burns contribute significantly to the overall trauma workload, and should be carefully considered in healthcare planning and policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: This paper presents a series of practical guides for use in planning and responding to a major incident involving large numbers of burns casualties.Method: The guidance is based on the findings of an expert Delphi study published as an accompanying paper.Results: The guidance covers preparation and all aspects of the response from prehospital care and hospital care to resolution recovery. Emphasis is placed on the management of the secondary/tertiary care interface as this is the point at which significant difficulties may arise. The importance of local interpretation of guidelines is emphasised.Conclusion: This practical guide for emergency planners will improve the preparation and response to a major incident involving burns. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Some burn wounds take longer to heal than others, but this cannot be fully explained by physical factors such as burn size and depth. Research interest has therefore focussed on the potential contribution of psychological factors, such as perception of the burn and distress, to the wound healing process. Objectives: Using the framework of Leventhal''s Common-Sense Model, we investigated whether patients’ perceptions of their burn wounds and distress contributed to healing time, and whether this was via the mediating role of adherence to treatment recommendations. Method: Seventy-two adult burn-injured outpatients completed questionnaire measures of burn perceptions (Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire), distress (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), trauma symptoms (Impact of Event Scale-Revised) and appearance concerns (Derriford Appearance Scale-24). Burn characteristics, healing time and adherence data were taken from clinic notes. Results: Distress, trauma symptoms and appearance concerns were positively correlated with negative burn perceptions. In regression analysis, burn perceptions added significantly to the prediction of burn healing time after age, medical factors and burn characteristics had been controlled for. Adherence measures were not significantly correlated with burns perceptions. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that patients’ perceptions of their burns contribute to healing time. Further research on the mechanisms of this association is warranted. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]