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Objective Estrogen is a well‐established risk factor for various cancers. It causes endometrial proliferation, which is assessed routinely as endometrial thickness (ET) using transvaginal ultrasound (TVS). Only one previous study, restricted to endometrial and breast cancer, has considered ET and the risk of non‐endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to explore the association between baseline and serial ET measurements and nine non‐endometrial hormone‐sensitive cancers, in postmenopausal women, using contemporary statistical methodology that attempts to minimize the biases typical of endogenous serial data. Methods This was a cohort study nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). In the ultrasound arm of UKCTOCS, 50639 postmenopausal women, aged 50–74, underwent annual TVS examination, of whom 38 105 had a valid ET measurement, no prior hysterectomy and complete covariate data, and were included in this study. All women were followed up through linkage to national cancer registries. The effect of ET on the risk of six estrogen‐dependent cancers (breast, ovarian, colorectal, bladder, lung and pancreatic) was assessed using joint models for longitudinal biomarker and time‐to‐event data, and Cox models were used to assess the association between baseline ET measurement and these six cancers in addition to liver cancer, gastric cancer and non‐Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). All models were adjusted for current hormone‐replacement therapy (HRT) use, body mass index, age at last menstrual period, parity and oral contraceptive pill use. Results The 38 105 included women had a combined total of 267 567 (median, 8; interquartile range, 5–9) valid ET measurements. During a combined total of 407 838 (median, 10.9) years of follow‐up, 1398 breast, 351 endometrial, 381 lung, 495 colorectal, 222 ovarian, 94 pancreatic, 79 bladder, 62 gastric, 38 liver cancers and 52 NHLs were registered. Using joint models, a doubling of ET increased significantly the risk of breast (hazard ratio (HR), 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09–1.36; P = 0.001), ovarian (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.06–1.82; P = 0.018) and lung (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02–1.54; P = 0.036) cancers. There were no statistically significant associations between ET and the remaining six cancers. Conclusion Postmenopausal women with high/increasing ET on TVS are at increased risk of breast, ovarian and lung cancer. It is important that clinicians are aware of these risks, as TVS is a common investigation. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Objective There are widespread efforts to increase symptom awareness of ‘pelvic/abdominal pain, increased abdominal size/bloating, difficulty eating/feeling full and urinary frequency/urgency’ in an attempt to diagnose ovarian cancer earlier. Long-term survival of women with these symptoms adjusted for known prognostic factors is yet to be determined. This study explored the association of symptoms, routes and interval to diagnosis and long-term survival in a population-based cohort of postmenopausal women diagnosed with invasive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (iEOC) in the ‘no screen’ (control) UKCTOCS arm. Methods Of 101,299 women in the control arm, 574 were confirmed on outcome review to have iEOC between randomisation (2001–2005) and 31 December 2014. Data was extracted from medical notes and electronic records. A multivariable model was fitted for individual symptoms, time interval from symptom onset to diagnosis, route to diagnosis, speciality, morphological Type, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis (period effect), stage, primary treatment, and residual disease. Results Women presenting with symptoms listed in the NICE guidelines (HR1.48, 95%CI1.16–1.89, p = 0.001) or the modified Goff Index (HR1·68, 95%CI1·32–2.13, p, Highlights • This study explored the association of symptoms of ovarian cancer, interval and route to diagnosis with survival. • Focus on ‘high alert’ symptoms: pelvic/abdominal pain, increase abdominal size/bloating and difficulty eating/feeling full • The ovarian cancer ‘high alert’ symptom complexes identify postmenopausal women with a significantly poorer prognosis. • The study could not however exclude the possibility of better outcomes in those who are aware and acted on these symptoms.

Funder: Department of Health; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000276, Funder: Ontario Research Fund, Funder: CHU de Quebec Foundation, Funder: Fondation du cancer du sein du Qu��bec; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100016328, Funder: The Eve Appeal, Background: Epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify women at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention. Methods: We developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for women of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D and BRIP1, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively. Results: Based on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the first to 99th percentiles of the EOC risk distribution. The corresponding range for women with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9%���10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusion: This multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among women with FH of cancer and/or moderate-risk and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Ovarian cancer is most commonly diagnosed at an advanced stage (3 or 4) and remains the deadliest gynecologic malignancy. When diagnosed at stage 1, a survival rate of greater than 90% has been demonstrated, compared with a 5-year survival rate of 27% and 13% for stage 3 and stage 4 disease, respectively. Despite international efforts to identify robust screening methods and increase early-stage detection, to date no evidence that screening saves lives has been presented. The UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is a randomized controlled trial that demonstrated no evidence associated with screening for ovarian cancer and reduction in ovarian cancer-related deaths at primary analysis but requires further follow-up. This secondary analysis of the UKCTOCS randomized controlled trial aimed to provide a follow-up and report on the long-term mortality effects of ovarian cancer screening. The UKCTOCS is a multicenter randomized trial of 202,638 women aged 50 to 74 years assigned to 2 annual screening groups (multimodal screening [MMS] vs ultrasound screening [USS]). Women in the United Kingdom were recruited from 13 National Health Service (NHS) centers and randomized to MMS, USS, or no screening in a 1:1:2 ratio. Annual screening in the MMS group involved serum CA125 measurements used in conjunction with the risk of ovarian cancer (ROCA) calculation to guide follow-up involving either no additional screening, repeat CA125 ROCA in 3 months, or transvaginal USS as a second test. Annual screening in the USS group involved transvaginal ultrasound with follow-up involving either continuation of annual screening, repeat in 3 months, or requiring a scan with a senior ultrasonographer within 6 weeks. The primary study outcome was death due to ovarian cancer or tubal cancer. A total of 202,638 women were randomized between April 2001 and September 2005, with screening concluding in December 2011 and follow-up continuing until June 2020. The final analysis cohort consisted of 202,562 women, 50,625 in the MMS group, 50,623 in the USS group, and 101,314 in the no screening group. Compliance with screening was 81% in the MMS group versus 78% in the USS group, with a median of 8 annual screens per participant. The median follow-up was 16.3 years (interquartile range, 15.1–17.3). A total of 2055 participants were diagnosed with ovarian or tubal cancer. At 9.5 years after screening, there was a 47.2% (95% confidence interval, 19.7–81.1) greater incidence of stage 1 disease and a 24.5% (-41.8 to -2.0) lower incidence of stage IV disease in the MMS group compared with the no screening group. Overall, a 39.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.1–66.9) greater incidence of stage I or II disease and a 10.2% (-21.3 to 2.4) lower incidence of stage III or IV disease was observed in the MMS group compared with the no screening group. At follow-up conclusion, 1206 women had died of ovarian cancer (296/50,625 [0.6%] in the MMS group, 291/50,623 [0.6%] in the USS group, 619/101,314 [0.6%] in the no screening group) with no significant difference between the MMS (P = 0.58) and USS (P = 0.36) groups compared with the no screening group. The results of this large-scale ovarian cancer screening trial demonstrate that, on long-term follow-up, while the screening strategies defined here resulted in a greater likelihood of diagnosing early stage disease, neither MMS nor USS resulted in a significant reduction in deaths from ovarian or tubal cancer.

Artificial Intelligence methods can be very effective in classification tasks that involve the processing of ordered sequences of data. Here we explore two different approaches to tackle the problem of ovarian cancer detection from a sequence of longitudinal measurements of several biomarkers. The first approach relies on a Bayesian hierarchical model whose fundamental assumption is that measurements taken from case subjects exhibit a changepoint in one or several biomarkers. The second approach is a purely discriminative machine learning algorithm based on the use of recurrent neural networks, a kind of artificial neural network specially suited to the processing of inputs of different lengths.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa and ovarian and tubal cancer. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING Thirteen NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. POPULATION A total of 202 506 postmenopausal women recruited between 2001 and 2005 to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and followed up until 31 December 2014. METHODS Multiple sources (questionnaires, hospital notes, Hospital Episodes Statistics, national cancer/death registries, ultrasound reports) were used to obtain accurate data on hysterectomy (with conservation of one or both adnexa) and outcomes censored at bilateral oophorectomy, death, ovarian/tubal cancer diagnosis, loss to follow up or 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer (WHO 2014) on independent outcome review. RESULTS Hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa was reported in 41 912 (20.7%; 41 912/202 506) women. Median follow up was 11.1 years (interquartile range 9.96-12.04), totalling >2.17 million woman-years. Among women who had undergone hysterectomy, 0.55% (231/41 912) were diagnosed with ovarian/tubal cancer, compared with 0.59% (945/160 594) of those with intact uterus. Multivariable analysis showed no evidence of an association between hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal cancer (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.13, P = 0.765). CONCLUSIONS This large cohort study provides further independent validation that hysterectomy is not associated with alteration of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer risk. These data are important both for clinical counselling and for refining risk prediction models. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT Hysterectomy does not alter risk of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer.

Background During trials that span decades, new evidence including progress in statistical methodology, may require revision of original assumptions. An example is the continued use of a constant-effect approach to analyse the mortality reduction which is often delayed in cancer-screening trials. The latter led us to re-examine our approach for the upcoming primary mortality analysis (2020) of long-term follow-up of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (LTFU UKCTOCS), having initially (2014) used the proportional hazards (PH) Cox model. Methods We wrote to 12 experts in statistics/epidemiology/screening trials, setting out current evidence, the importance of pre-specification, our previous mortality analysis (2014) and three possible choices for the follow-up analysis (2020) of the mortality outcome: (A) all data (2001–2020) using the Cox model (2014), (B) new data (2015–2020) only and (C) all data (2001–2020) using a test that allows for delayed effects. Results Of 11 respondents, eight supported changing the 2014 approach to allow for a potential delayed effect (option C), suggesting various tests while three favoured retaining the Cox model (option A). Consequently, we opted for the Versatile test introduced in 2016 which maintains good power for early, constant or delayed effects. We retained the Royston-Parmar model to estimate absolute differences in disease-specific mortality at 5, 10, 15 and 18 years. Conclusions The decision to alter the follow-up analysis for the primary outcome on the basis of new evidence and using new statistical methodology for long-term follow-up is novel and has implications beyond UKCTOCS. There is an urgent need for consensus building on how best to design, test, estimate and report mortality outcomes from long-term randomised cancer screening trials. Trial registration ISRCTN22488978. Registered on 6 April 2000.

Background There is a trend to increasing use of routinely collected health data to ascertain outcome measures in trials. We report on the completeness and accuracy of national ovarian cancer and death registration in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods Of the 202,638 participants, 202,632 were successfully linked and followed through national cancer and death registries of Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Women with registrations of any of 19 pre-defined ICD-10 codes suggestive of tubo-ovarian cancer or notification of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer from hospital episode statistics or trial sites were identified. Copies of hospital and primary care notes were retrieved and reviewed by an independent outcomes review committee. National registration of site and cause of death as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer (C56/C57/C48) obtained up to 3 months after trial censorship was compared to that assigned by outcomes review (reference standard). Results Outcome review was undertaken in 3110 women on whom notification was received between 2001 and 2014. Ovarian cancer was confirmed in 1324 of whom 1125 had a relevant cancer registration. Sensitivity and specificity of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer registration were 85.0% (1125/1324; 95% CI 83.7–86.2%) and 94.0% (1679/1786; 95% CI 93.2–94.8%), respectively. Of 2041 death registrations reviewed, 681 were confirmed to have a tubo-ovarian cancer of whom 605 had relevant death registration. Sensitivity and specificity were 88.8% (605/681; 95% CI 86.4–91.2%) and 96.7% (1482/1533, 95% CI 95.8–97.6%), respectively. When multiple electronic health record sources were considered, sensitivity for cancer site increased to 91.1% (1206/1324, 95% CI 89.4–92.5%) and for cause of death 94.0% (640/681, 95% CI 91.9–95.5%). Of 1232 with cancer registration, 8.7% (107/1232) were wrongly designated as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers by the registry and 4.0% (47/1172) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancers were mis-registered. In 656 with death registrations, 7.8% (51/656) were wrongly assigned as due to ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers while 6.2% (40/645) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancer deaths were mis-registered. Conclusion Follow-up of trial participants for tubo-ovarian cancer using national registry data will result in incomplete ascertainment, particularly of the site due in part to the latency of registration. This can be reduced by using other routinely collected data such as hospital episode statistics. Central adjudication by experts though resource intensive adds value by improving the accuracy of diagnoses. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN22488978. Registered on 6 April 2000

BackgroundEpithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify females at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention.MethodsWe developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for females of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) inBRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51DandBRIP1, a polygenic risk score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively.ResultsBased on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the 1stto 99thpercentiles of the EOC risk-distribution. The corresponding range for females with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9% to 10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well-calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk.ConclusionThis multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among females with FH of cancer and/or moderate- and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).

Background Low socio-economic position (SEP) is a risk factor for multiple health outcomes, but its molecular imprints in the body remain unclear. Methods We examined SEP as a determinant of serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles in ∼30 000 adults and 4000 children across 10 UK and Finnish cohort studies. Results In risk-factor-adjusted analysis of 233 metabolic measures, low educational attainment was associated with 37 measures including higher levels of triglycerides in small high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and lower levels of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), omega-3 fatty acids, apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles (including levels of their respective lipid constituents) and cholesterol measures across different density lipoproteins. Among adults whose father worked in manual occupations, associations with apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles and HDL-2 cholesterol remained after adjustment for SEP in later life. Among manual workers, levels of glutamine were higher compared with non-manual workers. All three indicators of low SEP were associated with lower DHA, omega-3 fatty acids and HDL diameter. At all ages, children of manual workers had lower levels of DHA as a proportion of total fatty acids. Conclusions Our work indicates that social and economic factors have a measurable impact on human physiology. Lower SEP was independently associated with a generally unfavourable metabolic profile, consistent across ages and cohorts. The metabolites we found to be associated with SEP, including DHA, are known to predict cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline in later life and may contribute to health inequalities.

Background Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. Results Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37–10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12–10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22–3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19–4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10–3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16–3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09–3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04–3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49–0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52–0.71). Conclusion This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. Trial registration This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

ImportanceCholesterol content in high-density lipoprotein particles (HDL-C) is associated inversely with coronary heart disease (CHD), but findings from Mendelian randomization studies and randomized trials of HDL-C raising drugs have questioned whether this link is causal. However, these analyses do not exclude a causal role for specific HDL sub-fractions of different density, mobility, size and composition.ObjectiveTo determine whether sub-components of the HDL pathway exhibit differing relationships with CHD risk.DesignIn seven longitudinal studies, we used factor analysis to reduce 21 measures of HDL particle size and lipid content to a smaller number of factors representing different components of the HDL pathway. We constructed factor scores and modelled their associations on CHD risk in adjusted Cox regression analyses. We pooled results using random-effects meta-analysis.SettingSeven population-, individual-, occupational- or community-based longitudinal studies in the UK and Finland.Participants28,597 participants (49% female, mean age 59.6 years) contributed to the analysis.ExposuresSub-components of the HDL pathway, characterized by 21 measures of HDL size and lipid content based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.Main OutcomesIncident fatal or non-fatal CHD.ResultsWe identified 4 HDL components with highly replicable across studies; 3 were indices of particle size/composition (extra-large (XL), large (L) and medium/small (MS)), and the other an index of triglycerides (TG) carried in HDL of all sizes. After up to 17 years of follow-up, 4179 incident CHD cases occurred. After adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, diabetes and LDL-C, higher levels of the XL and MS factors were linked to a reduced risk of CHD (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase 0.88 [95% CI 0.85, 0.92] and 0.91 [0.87, 0.94]). In contrast, a SD increase in the level of the TG factor was associated with increased risk of CHD (1.10 [1.07, 1.14]).Conclusions and RelevanceWe found qualitative differences between sub-components of the HDL pathway and the risk of developing CHD. Discovery of the biological determinants of these components, possibly through genetic analysis, will facilitate selection of drug targets and inform trial design.Key PointsQuestionCan investigation of sub-components of the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) pathway, measured through nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, point to specific therapeutic targets for prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD)?FindingsUsing individual-level data from seven longitudinal studies including 28,597 participants and 4197 CHD events, we identified two components of the HDL pathway that were associated with reduced, and one that was associated with increased, risk of CHD.MeaningThese sub-components of the HDL pathway, if causally related to atherogenesis, offer a route to more precise therapeutic targets for prevention of CHD.

We present a quantitative study of the performance of two automatic methods for the early detection of ovarian cancer that can exploit longitudinal measurements of multiple biomarkers. The study is carried out for a subset of the data collected in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). We use statistical analysis techniques, such as the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, for evaluating the performance of two techniques that aim at the classification of subjects as either healthy or suffering from the disease using time-series of multiple biomarkers as inputs. The first method relies on a Bayesian hierarchical model that establishes connections within a set of clinically interpretable parameters. The second technique is a purely discriminative method that employs a recurrent neural network (RNN) for the binary classification of the inputs. For the available dataset, the performance of the two detection schemes is similar (the area under ROC curve is 0.98 for the combination of three biomarkers) and the Bayesian approach has the advantage that its outputs (parameters estimates and their uncertainty) can be further analysed by a clinical expert.

Purpose: The TP53 tumor-suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high-grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 that might improve early detection. Experimental Design: An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Results: Using a cutoff value of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody was elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study, and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months before CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53. Conclusions: TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 holds promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5912–22. ©2017 AACR.

Background: Tubo-ovarian cancer (OC) continues to be the most lethal of all gynaecological cancers. Over half of women are diagnosed with late stage (III/IV) disease, which has a five-year survival rate of 11%. Socioeconomic status (SES) has been shown to have an impact on outcomes of several cancer types, including OC. This study aims to investigate any potential association between SES and stage at diagnosis of OC. Methods: Women from the non-screening arm of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) with a confirmed diagnosis of OC prior to 01 January 2015 and an English index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score were eligible for the study. The association between IMD and OC stage (FIGO) was analysed using an ordinal logistic regression model adjusted for age at diagnosis and BMI. Results: Four-hundred and fifty seven women were eligible for inclusion in the primary analysis. The odds of being diagnosed with the higher dichotomization of stage (I vs. II/III/IV, I/II vs. III/IV, I/II/III vs. IV) was 1.29 (p = 0.017, 95% CI: 1.048&ndash, 1.592) per unit SD (standard deviation) increase in IMD. This translates to a 29% increase in odds of being diagnosed at the higher stage per each unit SD increase in IMD. Conclusion: Increased deprivation is consistently associated with a higher probability of being diagnosed with later stage OC.

Background An early detection tool for EOC was constructed from analysis of biomarker expression data from serum collected during the UKCTOCS. Methods This study included 49 EOC cases (19 Type I and 30 Type II) and 31 controls, representing 482 serial samples spanning seven years pre-diagnosis. A logit model was trained by analysis of dysregulation of expression data of four putative biomarkers, (CA125, phosphatidylcholine-sterol acyltransferase, vitamin K-dependent protein Z and C-reactive protein); by scoring the specificity associated with dysregulation from the baseline expression for each individual. Results The model is discriminatory, passes k-fold and leave-one-out cross-validations and was further validated in a Type I EOC set. Samples were analysed as a simulated annual screening programme, the algorithm diagnosed cases with >30% PPV 1–2 years pre-diagnosis. For Type II cases (~80% were HGS) the algorithm classified 64% at 1 year and 28% at 2 years tDx as severe. Conclusions The panel has the potential to diagnose EOC one-two years earlier than current diagnosis. This analysis provides a tangible worked example demonstrating the potential for development as a screening tool and scrutiny of its properties. Limits on interpretation imposed by the number of samples available are discussed.

Background: Various factors—including age, family history, inflammation, reproductive factors, and tubal ligation—modulate the risk of ovarian cancer. In this study, our aim was to establish whether women with, or at risk of developing, ovarian cancer have an imbalanced cervicovaginal microbiome. Methods: We did a case-control study in two sets of women aged 18–87 years in the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Norway, and the UK. The ovarian cancer set comprised women with epithelial ovarian cancer and controls (both healthy controls and those diagnosed with benign gynaecological conditions). The BRCA set comprised women with a BRCA1 mutation but without ovarian cancer and controls who were wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2 (both healthy controls and those with benign gynaecological conditions). Cervicovaginal samples were gathered from all participants with the ThinPrep system and then underwent 16S rRNA gene sequencing. For each sample, we calculated the proportion of lactobacilli species (ie, Lactobacillus crispatus, Lactobacillus iners, Lactobacillus gasseri, and Lactobacillus jensenii), which are essential for the generation of a protective low vaginal pH, in the cervicovaginal microbiota. We grouped samples into those in which lactobacilli accounted for at least 50% of the species present (community type L) and those in which lactobacilli accounted for less than 50% of the species present (community type O). We assessed the adjusted association between BRCA1 status and ovarian cancer status and cervicovaginal microbiota community type, using a logistic regression model with a bias reduction method. Findings: Participants were recruited between Jan 2, 2016, and July 21, 2018. The ovarian cancer set (n=360) comprised 176 women with epithelial ovarian cancer, 115 healthy controls and 69 controls with benign gynaecological conditions. The BRCA set (n=220) included 109 women with BRCA1 mutations, 97 healthy controls wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2 and 14 controls with a benign gynaecological condition wild type for BRCA1 and BRCA2. On the basis of two-dimensional density plots, receiver–operating characteristic curve analysis, and age thresholds used previously, we divided the cohort into those younger than 50 years and those aged 50 years or older. In the ovarian cancer set, women aged 50 years or older had a higher prevalence of community type O microbiota (81 [61%] of 133 ovarian cancer cases and 84 [59%] of 142 healthy controls) than those younger than 50 years (23 [53%] of 43 cases and 12 [29%] of 42 controls). In the ovarian cancer set, women younger than 50 years with ovarian cancer had a significantly higher prevalence of community type O microbiota than did age-matched controls under a logistic regression model with bias correction (odds ratio [OR] 2·80 [95% CI 1·17–6·94]; p=0·020). In the BRCA set, women with BRCA1 mutations younger than 50 years were also more likely to have community type O microbiota than age-matched controls (OR 2·79 [95% CI 1·25–6·68]; p=0·012), after adjustment for pregnancy (ever). This risk was increased further if more than one first-degree family member was affected by any cancer (OR 5·26 [95% CI 1·83–15·30]; p=0·0022). In both sets, we noted that the younger the participants, the stronger the association between community type O microbiota and ovarian cancer or BRCA1 mutation status (eg, OR for community type O for cases aged

Background: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). We evaluated performance of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test in predicting CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Methods: ELF was measured in blinded samples from 58 participants with selfreported high alcohol use and/or BMI ≥25kg/m2 who developed liver-related events (LRE) (cases), and in 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8*5 years. Findings: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 9*8 hazard ratio (HR) for LRE was 2*21 (unadjusted model) and 2*18 (adjusted for deprivation and selfreported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia or diabetes). At a threshold of 10*51, HR was 4*88 (unadjusted) and 4*62 (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating timedependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 9*8 were 1*85 (unadjusted) and 1*80 (adjusted), and at a threshold of 10*51 HRs were 1*94 (unadjusted) and 2*05 (adjusted). Interpretation: This study demonstrates that the ELF test predicts complications of CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the possible role for ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. Funding Statement: No external funding for this nested study. The trial, UKCTOCS, was funded by Medical Research Council (G9901012 and G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. UM and WMR are supported by the NIHR University College London Hospitals (UCLH) Biomedical Research Centre. SA was funded by Abcodia Pvt Ltd. Declaration of Interests: UM has stocks awarded to her by UCL in Abcodia Pvt. Ltd. WMR is an inventor of the ELF test and has received fees from Siemens Healthineers for lecturing, travel, and consulting and research support. All the other authors declare no conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The current study was approved by the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee London - Bentham (Ref: 05/Q0505/57) on 10th August 2011.

Background Transvaginal ultrasound and serum CA125 are routinely used for differential diagnosis of pelvic adnexal mass. Use of human epididymis 4 was approved in the United States in 2011. However, there is scarcity of studies evaluating the additional value of human epididymis 4. Objective The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance characteristics of transvaginal ultrasound, CA125, and human epididymis 4 for differential diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses. Study Design This was a cohort study nested within the screen arms of the multicenter randomized controlled trial, United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, based in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. In United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 48,230 women randomized to transvaginal ultrasound screening and 50,078 to multimodal screening (serum CA125 interpreted by Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm with second line transvaginal ultrasound) underwent the first (prevalence) screen. Women with adnexal lesions and/or persistently elevated risk were clinically assessed and underwent surgery or follow-up for a median of 10.9 years. Banked samples taken within 6 months of transvaginal ultrasound from all clinically assessed women were assayed for human epididymis 4 and CA125. Area under the curve and sensitivity for diagnosing ovarian cancer of multiple penalized logistic regression models incorporating logCA125, log human epididymis 4, age, and simple ultrasound features of the adnexal mass were compared. Results Of 1590 (158 multimodal, 1432 ultrasound) women with adnexal masses, 78 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (48 invasive epithelial ovarian, 14 type I, 34 type II; 24 borderline epithelial; 6 nonepithelial) within 1 year of scan. The area under the curve (0.893 vs 0.896; P = .453) and sensitivity (74.4% vs 75.6% ;P = .564) at fixed specificity of 90% of the model incorporating age, ultrasound, and CA125 were similar to that also including human epididymis 4. Both models had high sensitivity for invasive epithelial ovarian (89.6%) and type II (>91%) cancers. Conclusion Our population cohort study suggests that human epididymis 4 adds little value to concurrent use of CA125 and transvaginal ultrasound in the differential diagnosis of adnexal masses in postmenopausal women.

Early detection of ovarian cancer has the potential to impact mortality. A multimodal screening strategy where rising CA125 values over time, analyzed with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), triggers transvaginal sonography and possible surgery has high sensitivity and specificity, but still fails to detect the 20% of early-stage cases that do not express CA125. Use of multiple biomarkers could detect cases missed by CA125. We have studied the sensitivity and lead time of a multi-marker panel (CA125, HE4, MMP-7, and CA 72-4) compared with CA125 alone. We used PRoBE design principles to select preclinical longitudinal specimens from 75 women (50 screen-positive, 25 screen-negative) who developed invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (3–5 serial specimens each) and 547 corresponding healthy controls (1–10 serial specimens each) from the ovarian cancer screening trial, UKCTOCS, in a blinded fashion. We measured the multi-marker concentrations in ultra-low serum volumes (16 μL) utilizing multiplexed bead-based immunoassays with low detection limits, high inter- and intra-assay precision, negligible cross-reactivity, and good correlation with standard immunoassays. While, at least one of the complementary biomarkers rose with CA125 in 44% (22/50) of screen-positive cases, there was no advantage in lead time over CA125. Therefore, we developed single-marker longitudinal algorithms (ROCA-like) to determine the presence of a change point to distinguish between the cases and controls. Using these algorithms, at 98% specificity, HE4 and CA72-4 identified 16% (4/25) of screen-negative cases, while MMP-7 identified none. Taken together, HE4 and CA72-4 show promise as complementary biomarkers to CA125 for longitudinal screening.

Purpose: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), women in the multimodal (MMS) arm had a serum CA125 test (first-line), with those at increased risk, having repeat CA125/ultrasound (second-line test). CA125 was interpreted using the “Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm” (ROCA). We report on performance of other serial algorithms and a single CA125 threshold as a first-line screen in the UKCTOCS dataset. Experimental Design: 50,083 post-menopausal women who attended 346,806 MMS screens were randomly split into training and validation sets, following stratification into cases (ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers) and controls. The two longitudinal algorithms, a new serial algorithm, method of mean trends (MMT) and the parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) were trained in the training set and tested in the blinded validation set and the performance characteristics, including that of a single CA125 threshold, were compared. Results: The area under receiver operator curve (AUC) was significantly higher (P = 0.01) for MMT (0.921) compared with CA125 single threshold (0.884). At a specificity of 89.5%, sensitivities for MMT [86.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 78.4–91.9] and PEB (88.5%; 95% CI, 80.6–93.4) were similar to that reported for ROCA (sensitivity 87.1%; specificity 87.6%; AUC 0.915) and significantly higher than the single CA125 threshold (73.1%; 95% CI, 63.6–80.8). Conclusions: These findings from the largest available serial CA125 dataset in the general population provide definitive evidence that longitudinal algorithms are significantly superior to simple cutoff values for ovarian cancer screening. Use of these newer algorithms requires incorporation into a multimodal strategy. The results highlight the importance of incorporating serial change in biomarker levels in cancer screening/early detection strategies. Clin Cancer Res; 24(19); 4726–33. ©2018 AACR.

Importance Cytotoxic CD8+tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) participate in immune control of epithelial ovarian cancer; however, little is known about prognostic patterns of CD8+TILs by histotype and in relation to other clinical factors. Objective To define the prognostic role of CD8+TILs in epithelial ovarian cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a multicenter observational, prospective survival cohort study of the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis Consortium. More than 5500 patients, including 3196 with high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOCs), were followed prospectively for over 24 650 person-years. Exposures Following immunohistochemical analysis, CD8+TILs were identified within the epithelial components of tumor islets. Patients were grouped based on the estimated number of CD8+TILs per high-powered field: negative (none), low (1-2), moderate (3-19), and high (≥20). CD8+TILs in a subset of patients were also assessed in a quantitative, uncategorized manner, and the functional form of associations with survival was assessed using penalized B-splines. Main Outcomes and Measures Overall survival time. Results The final sample included 5577 women; mean age at diagnosis was 58.4 years (median, 58.2 years). Among the 5 major invasive histotypes, HGSOCs showed the most infiltration. CD8+TILs in HGSOCs were significantly associated with longer overall survival; median survival was 2.8 years for patients with no CD8+TILs and 3.0 years, 3.8 years, and 5.1 years for patients with low, moderate, or high levels of CD8+TILs, respectively (Pvalue for trend = 4.2 × 10−16). A survival benefit was also observed among women with endometrioid and mucinous carcinomas, but not for those with the other histotypes. Among HGSOCs, CD8+TILs were favorable regardless of extent of residual disease following cytoreduction, known standard treatment, and germlineBRCA1pathogenic mutation, but were not prognostic forBRCA2mutation carriers. Evaluation of uncategorized CD8+TIL counts showed a near-log-linear functional form. Conclusions and Relevance This study demonstrates the histotype-specific nature of immune infiltration and provides definitive evidence for a dose-response relationship between CD8+TILs and HGSOC survival. That the extent of infiltration is prognostic, not merely its presence or absence, suggests that understanding factors that drive infiltration will be the key to unraveling outcome heterogeneity in this cancer.

Background: The implications of different adiposity measures on cardiovascular disease etiology remain unclear. In this article, we quantify and contrast causal associations of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index [WHRadjBMI]) and general adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with cardiometabolic disease. Methods: Ninety-seven independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI and 49 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for WHRadjBMI were used to conduct Mendelian randomization analyses in 14 prospective studies supplemented with coronary heart disease (CHD) data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics; combined total 66 842 cases), stroke from METASTROKE (12 389 ischemic stroke cases), type 2 diabetes mellitus from DIAGRAM (Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis; 34 840 cases), and lipids from GLGC (Global Lipids Genetic Consortium; 213 500 participants) consortia. Primary outcomes were CHD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and major stroke subtypes; secondary analyses included 18 cardiometabolic traits. Results: Each one standard deviation (SD) higher WHRadjBMI (1 SD≈0.08 U) associated with a 48% excess risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] for CHD, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28–1.71), similar to findings for BMI (1 SD≈4.6 kg/m 2 ; OR for CHD, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.22–1.52). Only WHRadjBMI increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03–1.70). For type 2 diabetes mellitus, both measures had large effects: OR, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.38–2.42) and OR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41–2.78) per 1 SD higher WHRadjBMI and BMI, respectively. Both WHRadjBMI and BMI were associated with higher left ventricular hypertrophy, glycemic traits, interleukin 6, and circulating lipids. WHRadjBMI was also associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (39%; 95% CI, 9%–77% per 1 SD). Conclusions: Both general and central adiposity have causal effects on CHD and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Central adiposity may have a stronger effect on stroke risk. Future estimates of the burden of adiposity on health should include measures of central and general adiposity.

Background: There are limited data on surgical outcomes in gynaecological oncology. We report on predictors of complications in a multicentre prospective study. Methods: Data on surgical procedures and resulting complications were contemporaneously recorded on consented patients in 10 participating UK gynaecological cancer centres. Patients were sent follow-up letters to capture any further complications. Post-operative (Post-op) complications were graded (I–V) in increasing severity using the Clavien-Dindo system. Grade I complications were excluded from the analysis. Univariable and multivariable regression was used to identify predictors of complications using all surgery for intra-operative (Intra-op) and only those with both hospital and patient-reported data for Post-op complications. Results: Prospective data were available on 2948 major operations undertaken between April 2010 and February 2012. Median age was 62 years, with 35% obese and 20.4% ASA grade ⩾3. Consultant gynaecological oncologists performed 74.3% of operations. Intra-op complications were reported in 139 of 2948 and Grade II–V Post-op complications in 379 of 1462 surgeries. The predictors of risk were different for Intra-op and Post-op complications. For Intra-op complications, previous abdominal surgery, metabolic/endocrine disorders (excluding diabetes), surgical complexity and final diagnosis were significant in univariable and multivariable regression (P

Background: It has been suggested that lower UK cancer survival may be due to incomplete case ascertainment by cancer registries. Methods: We assessed concordance between self-reported breast, bowel and lung cancer and cancer registration (CR) for 1995–2007 in England and Wales in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. Results: Concordance of breast cancer CR was higher (94.7%:95% CI: 94.1–95.3%) than for bowel (85.1%:95% CI: 82.1–87.8%) and lung (85.4%:95% CI: 76.3–92.0%). CR concordance was lower in breast cancer (94.5% vs 98.8%) survivors compared with deceased but the difference was small. No difference was found for bowel (85.3% vs 94.6%) or lung (87.1% vs 90.5%) cancer. Conclusion: Concordance of CR and self-reported cancer is high. Incomplete registration is unlikely to be a major cause of lower UK survival rates.

Background: Most studies use hospital data to calculate postoperative complication rates (PCRs). We report on improving PCR estimates through use of patient-reporting. Methods: A prospective cohort study of major surgery performed at 10 UK gynaecological cancer centres was undertaken. Hospitals entered the data contemporaneously into an online database. Patients were sent follow-up letters to capture postoperative complications. Grade II–V (Clavien–Dindo classification) patient-reported postoperative complications were verified from hospital records. Postoperative complication rate was defined as the proportion of surgeries with a Grade II–V postoperative complication. Results: Patient replies were received for 1462 (68%) of 2152 surgeries undertaken between April 2010 and February 2012. Overall, 452 Grade II–V (402 II, 50 III–V) complications were reported in 379 of the 1462 surgeries. This included 172 surgeries with 200 hospital-reported complications and 231 with 280 patient-reported complications. All (100% concordance) 36 Grade III–V and 158 of 280 (56.4% concordance) Grade II patient-reported complications were verified on hospital case-note review. The PCR using hospital-reported data was 11.8% (172 out of 1462; 95% CI 11–14), patient-reported was 15.8% (231 out of 1462; 95% CI 14–17.8), hospital and verified patient-reported was 19.4% (283 out of 1462; 95% CI 17.4–21.4) and all data were 25.9% (379 out of 1462; 95% CI 24–28). After excluding Grade II complications, the hospital and patient verified Grade III–V PCR was 3.3% (48 out of 1462; 95% CI 2.5–4.3). Conclusion: This is the first prospective study of postoperative complications we are aware of in gynaecological oncology to include the patient-reported data. Patient-reporting is invaluable for obtaining complete information on postoperative complications. Primary care case-note review is likely to improve verification rates of patient-reported Grade II complications.

ObjectiveThe aim of the study was to perform a preliminary comparison of quality of life (QoL) and patient satisfaction in individualized nurse-led follow-up versus conventional medical follow-up in ovarian cancer.MethodsOne hundred twelve women who received a diagnosis of ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer, completed primary treatment by surgery alone or with chemotherapy, irrespective of outcome with regard to remission, and expected survival of more than 3 months. Fifty-seven participants were randomized to individualized follow-up and 55 patients to conventional follow-up. Well-being was measured at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after randomization for QoL (QLQ-C30 [European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire], QLQ-Ov28), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and a Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ-III). The primary endpoints were the effects of follow-up on each of the scores (via hierarchical mixed-effects model) and on relapse-free time (via Cox model). The total cost of follow-up was compared between each group.ResultsThere was evidence for a QoL and patient satisfaction benefit for individualized versus standard follow-up (QLQ-C30, P = 0.013; 95% confidence interval, −0.03 to −0.001; PSQ-III P = 0.002; 95% confidence interval, −0.003 to −0.015; QLQ-Ov28, P = 0.14). Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale data provided no evidence in favor of either treatment (P = 0.42). Delivered to protocol individualized follow-up resulted in a delay in the presentation of symptomatic relapse (P = 0.04), although the effect on survival in this study is unknown. Cost was £700 lower on average for the individualized follow-up group, but the difference was not statistically significant at the 5% level (P = 0.07).ConclusionsIndividualized follow-up was superior to conventional follow-up in 3 of the 4 QoL and patient satisfaction surveys in this preliminary study. Further prospective studies are needed in a larger population.Trial registration number is ISRCTN59149551.

Background: In research studies, accurate information of cancer diagnosis is crucial. In women with breast cancer (BC), we compare cancer registration (CR) in England/Wales and self-reporting with independent confirmation. Methods: In the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, notification of BC diagnosed between randomisation and 31 December 2009 was obtained through (1) CR (17 October 2011) and (2) self-reporting using postal-questionnaire. Breast cancer was confirmed using a detailed questionnaire (BC questionnaire BCQ) completed by the treating clinician (gold standard). Apparent sensitivity and positive-predictive value of CR/self-reporting vs BCQ were calculated. Results: Of 1065 women with possible BC notification, diagnosis was confirmed in 932 (87.5%). A total of 3.1% (28 out of 918) of BC CR and 12.4% (128 out of 1032) of women with self-reported BC only had in-situ carcinoma on BCQ. Another 4.6% (43 out of 932) of BCQ-confirmed cancer did not have a BC registration, and 3.6% (34 out of 932) did not self-report BC. Apparent sensitivity of CR and self-reporting vs BCQ were 95.4 and 96.4%, respectively. Positive-predictive value of self-reporting (87.1%) was significantly lower than that of CR (96.8%). Women aged

Objective: To evaluate the malignant potential of ultrasound-detected ovarian inclusion cysts in the development of ovarian cancer (OC) in postmenopausal women. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Population: Postmenopausal women. Methods: In UKCTOCS, women in the ultrasound group have annual scans. Women with inclusion cysts (single/multiple anechoic £10-mm ovarian cysts) and normal ovaries (both uniform hypoechogenicity) on their first scan were identified and followed up through cancer registry/questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Relative risk (RR) of developing OC, invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (iEOC), breast cancer (BC) and endometrial cancer (EC) in women with inclusion cysts relative to those with normal ovaries. The incidence was compared with UK age-adjusted expected rates (Office for National Statistics, 2005). Results: Postmenopausal women (n = 48 230) attended the year 1(11 June 2001–6 December 2006) screen; 1234 (2.5%) had inclusion cysts alone and 22 914 had normal scans. By 1 November 2009 (median follow-up, 6.13 years; interquartile range,4.96–6.98 years), four, three (one Type II), seven and 22 women with inclusion cysts and 32, 29 (20 Type II), 90 and 397 women with normal ovaries were diagnosed with OC, iEOC, EC and BC,respectively. The RR values for the respective cancers (OC [RR,2.32; confidence interval [CI], 0.86–6.28], iEOC [RR, 1.92; CI,0.62–5.92], EC [RR, 1.44; CI, 0.68–3.05], BC [RR, 1.12; CI,0.73–1.73]) were not increased. There was no difference between the observed versus expected incidence rates for these cancers in women with inclusion cysts. Conclusions: Postmenopausal women with ultrasound-detected inclusion cysts do not seem to be at increased risk of ovarian or breast/endometrial (hormone-dependent) cancers.

Ovarian cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women, with more than 150,000 deceases worldwide each year. One of the main problems of ovarian cancer is that, usually, is detected at later stages, for which the survival rates are relatively low. Thus, the development of new approaches for longitudinal multi-marker analysis that result in earlier detection may significantly impact on mortality. An issue of specific interest is to determine whether the baseline level of a biomarker changes significantly at some time instant (change-point) prior to the clinical diagnosis of cancer. Here we apply a hierarchical Bayesian change-point model to jointly study the features of time series from multiple biomarkers, such as the serum biomarker Cancer Antigen 125, the Human Epididymis Protein 4, matrix metalloproteinase-7, Cytokeratin 19 fragment, glycodelin and mesothelin, using data from a nested case-control study of women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. In this way we assess whether some of these biomarkers can play a role in change-point detection and, therefore, aid in the diagnosis of the disease. The main conclusion of our study is that the combined analysis of a group of specific biomarkers may possibly improve the detection of changepoints in time series data (compared to the analysis of Cancer Antigen 125 alone, the most commonly used oncomarker in the screening of ovarian cancer) which, in turn, are relevant for the early diagnosis of ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of risk-adjustment on surgical complication rates (CRs) for benchmarking gynaecological oncology centres. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Ten UK accredited gynaecological oncology centres. POPULATION: Women undergoing major surgery on a gynaecological oncology operating list. METHODS: Patient co-morbidity, surgical procedures and intra-operative (IntraOp) complications were recorded contemporaneously by surgeons for 2948 major surgical procedures. Postoperative (PostOp) complications were collected from hospitals and patients. Risk-prediction models for IntraOp and PostOp complications were created using penalised (lasso) logistic regression using over 30 potential patient/surgical risk factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Observed and risk-adjusted IntraOp and PostOp CRs for individual hospitals were calculated. Benchmarking using colour-coded funnel plots and observed-to-expected ratios was undertaken. RESULTS: Overall, IntraOp CR was 4.7% (95% CI 4.0-5.6) and PostOp CR was 25.7% (95% CI 23.7-28.2). The observed CRs for all hospitals were under the upper 95% control limit for both IntraOp and PostOp funnel plots. Risk-adjustment and use of observed-to-expected ratio resulted in one hospital moving to the >95-98% CI (red) band for IntraOp CRs. Use of only hospital-reported data for PostOp CRs would have resulted in one hospital being unfairly allocated to the red band. There was little concordance between IntraOp and PostOp CRs. CONCLUSION: The funnel plots and overall IntraOp (≈5%) and PostOp (≈26%) CRs could be used for benchmarking gynaecological oncology centres. Hospital benchmarking using risk-adjusted CRs allows fairer institutional comparison. IntraOp and PostOp CRs are best assessed separately. As hospital under-reporting is common for postoperative complications, use of patient-reported outcomes is important. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Risk-adjusted benchmarking of surgical complications for ten UK gynaecological oncology centres allows fairer comparison.

Introduction Associations of endogenous sex hormone levels and all as well as estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers are well described. However, studies investigating their association with ER-negative tumours are limited and none use accurate assays such as mass spectrometry. Methods Within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), a nested case-control study was undertaken of postmenopausal-women who developed ER-negative (n = 92) or ER-positive (n = 205) breast cancer after sample donation and 297 (1:1) age-matched controls. Androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) were measured using mass spectrometry and estradiol by extraction radioimmunoassay (RIA). Bioavailable estradiol and testosterone were calculated using the total hormone level and the sex hormone-binding globulin concentration. Subjects were classified according to the quartile range among controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds-ratio (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI) of the associations between two factors and breast cancer risk. A separate analysis was done by stratifying the women based on whether they provided their samples less than or more than 2 years before diagnosis. Results Estradiol and free estradiol were significantly higher prior to diagnosis of ER-negative breast cancer compared with controls while androgens and SHBG did not show any difference. Estradiol, free estradiol, free testosterone and SHBG were significantly higher before ER-positive breast cancer diagnosis compared with controls. Women had a twofold increased ER-negative breast cancer risk if estradiol and free estradiol were in the top quartile but not androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) or SHBG. These associations remained significant only when samples closer (median 1.1 y before) to diagnosis were analyzed rather than farther from diagnosis (median 2.9 y before). Women had a 2.34 (95% CI: 1.21–4.61, p = 0.001), 2.21 (95% CI: 1.14–4.38, p = 0.001), 2 (95% CI: 1.05–3.89, p = 0.005) fold increased ER-positive breast cancer risk if estradiol, free estradiol and free testosterone respectively were in the top quartile. These associations remained significant regardless of whether the samples were collected less than or more than 2 years prior to diagnosis. Conclusion In postmenopausal women increased estrogens but not androgens are associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Previously reported associations of estradiol and free testosterone with ER-positive breast cancer are confirmed. The use of mass spectrometry and sensitive RIA add validity to these findings.

Objective: The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) aims to establish the efficacy of 2 different ovarian cancer screening schedules. The psychosocial substudy examines the psychological factors associated with the screening program.\ud \ud Methods: Women aged 50 to 75 years from 16 UK gynecologic centers randomized to annual multimodal screening or ultrasound screening (US) groups were followed up for 7 years. Psychosocial data from women who withdrew from the study after a repeat screen were examined.\ud \ud Results: Sixteen percent (3499/21,733) of women requiring a repeat screening test in addition to annual screen withdrew from the study: 12.9% (1560/12,073) from the multimodal group and 20.1% (1939/9660) from the US group. An estimated relative risk of withdrawal is 1.46 (95% confidence interval, 1.36-1.56; P

Background Area-level socioeconomic indicators have been shown to be associated with range of health outcomes. However, only few studies have been able to examine the role of area-level indicators alongside individual-level indicators in large national samples. The aim of this project is to assess the role of Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) as well as range of individual factors on all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in sample of women resident in …

Objectives Several studies suggest that overall and central-obesity are associated with increased breast cancer (BC) risk in postmenopausal-women. However, there are no studies investigating changes of central obesity and BC. We report on the association of BC risk with self-reported skirt size (SS; waist-circumference proxy) changes between 20s and postmenopausal-age. Design Prospective cohort-study. Setting UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) involving the nine trial centres in England. Participants Postmenopausal-women aged >50 with no known history of BC prior to or on the day of completion of the study-entry questionnaire. Interventions At recruitment and at study entry, women were asked to complete a questionnaire. Women were followed-up via ‘flagging’ at the NHS Information Centre in England and the Hospital Episode Statistics. Main outcome-measure Time to initial BC diagnosis. Results Between 2 January 2005 and 1 July 2010, 92 834 UKCTOCS participants (median age 64.0) completed the study-entry questionnaire. During median follow-up of 3.19 years (25th–75th centile: 2.46–3.78), 1090 women developed BC. Model adjusted analysis for potential confounders showed body mass index (BMI) at recruitment to UKCTOCS (HR for a 5 unit change=1.076, 95% CI 1.012 to 1.136), current SS at study entry (HR=1.051; 95% CI 1.014 to 1.089) and change in SS per 10 years (CSS) (HR=1.330; 95% CI 1.121 to 1.579) were associated with increased BC risk but not SS at 25 (HR=1.006; 95% CI 0.958 to 1.056). CSS was the most predictive singe adiposity measure and further analysis including both CSS and BMI in the model revealed CSS remained significant (HR=1.266; 95% CI 1.041 to 1.538) but not BMI (HR=1.037; 95% CI 0.970 to 1.109). Conclusions CSS is associated with BC risk independent of BMI. A unit increase in UK SS (eg, 12–14) every 10-years between 25 and postmenopausal-age is associated with postmenopausal BC risk by 33%. Validation of these results could provide women with a simple and easy to understand message. Trial registration number ISRCTN22488978.

Background: Ovarian cancer has poor prognosis, with 60% of patients dying within 5 years. Early detection of ovarian cancer through blood tests may reduce mortality through detection earlier in the disease process than occurs with clinical detection. Since survival time in screening trials is measured from time of randomization rather than diagnosis as is done in therapeutic trials, there is a well established delayed effect of screening. The impact on prevalent cases, women with undiagnosed disease at study entry, is likely to be less than for disease arising after start of screening. One intervention arm of this trial was designed to establish the effect of early detection by screening with blood tests on ovarian cancer mortality. We estimated its impact on cases arising after screening begins (pre-specified) and accounting for the delayed effect (post-hoc). Methods: We recruited postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years from 13 centres in the UK and randomly allocated participants to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS with no screening. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. For this report, we focused on the impact of screening on cases arising after the randomization in the MMS arm where we excluded cases arising prior to randomization, and on the delayed effect for which we applied the weighted log-rank test with weights which increased over time to account for the delayed effect. Results: For the MMS comparison, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25.0%) to MMS, and 101 359 (50.0%) to no screening. More than 99.9% women were eligible for analysis. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11.1 years, we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 968 women: 338 in the MMS group, and 630 in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0.29%) women in the MMS group, and 347 (0.34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. A standard Cox proportional hazards model, which does not account for the delayed effect nor for the lesser impact on prevalent cases gave a mortality reduction over years 0-14 of 15% (95% CI -3 to 30; p = 0.10) with MMS. However, the pre-specified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p = 0.021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (-2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (-27 to 43) in years 0-7 and 28% (-3 to 49) in years 7-14 in favor of MMS. The post-hoc weighted log-rank test had a significant p-value of 0.023 with weights equal to ovarian cancer mortality pooled over the MMS and control arms. Conclusion: Accounting for the delayed effect of screening and estimating the impact excluding prevalent cases yielded a significant but delayed impact of MMS screening in years 7-14. Further follow-up is needed however before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy of ovarian cancer screening. Citation Format: Ian J. Jacobs, Usha Menon, Andy Ryan, Aleksandra Gentry-Maharaj, Matthew Burnell, Jatinderpal K. Kalsi, Alistair J. McGuire, Mahesh Parmar, Steven J. Skates. Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening (UKCTOCS): A randomised controlled trial. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr CT104.

5570Background: Ovarian cancer is a high mortality gynecological malignancy with poor survival rates, where patients might benefit from early stage detection strategies. The United Kingdom Collabor...

5507Background: We report on the overall performance of the screening strategies and stage distribution of invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal/peritoneal (iEO/T/PP) cancers Methods: Postmenopausal wo...

Background Ultrasound scanning uses the medical imaging format, DICOM, for electronically storing the images and data associated with a particular scan. Large health care facilities typically use a picture archiving and communication system (PACS) for storing and retrieving such images. However, these systems are usually not suitable for managing large collections of anonymized ultrasound images gathered during a clinical screening trial. Results We have developed a system enabling the accurate archiving and management of ultrasound images gathered during a clinical screening trial. It is based upon a Windows application utilizing an open-source DICOM image viewer and a relational database. The system automates the bulk import of DICOM files from removable media by cross-validating the patient information against an external database, anonymizing the data as well as the image, and then storing the contents of the file as a field in a database record. These image records may then be retrieved from the database and presented in a tree-view control so that the user can select particular images for display in a DICOM viewer or export them to external media. Conclusion This system provides error-free automation of ultrasound image archiving and management, suitable for use in a clinical trial. An open-source project has been established to promote continued development of the system.

Objective: There has been controversy about the results of the Women's Health Initiative and the Million Women Study and uncertainty about their impact on hormone therapy (HT) use. This study documents recent trends in HT use in postmenopausal women in the United Kingdom.Design: Between April 2001 and September 2005, 202,638 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 74 and with no history of bilateral oophorectomy were recruited to the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. The proportion of women randomized each month who were using HT was calculated. The trend in HT use was assessed with reference to the publication of the Women's Health Initiative interim results (July 2002), the Million Women Study (August 2003), and advice from the UK Committee on Safety of Medicines (December 2003).Results: The median number of women recruited and randomized per month was 3,955 (mean 3,744). The proportion of randomized women using HT between April 2001 and June 2002 was 29%. This was followed by a steady monthly decline, and by February to September 2005, only 10% to 11% of newly recruited women were using HT. This trend was present in all age groups. However, in current users, the average duration of HT use remained steady at 10 to 11 years.Conclusions: There was a steady decline in HT use among postmenopausal women at recruitment into the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening between April 2001 and September 2005. This is likely to reflect general trends in the UK population and is probably related to the premature closure of the large HT trials and the ensuing publicity.

Introduction Alcohol and fat are major causes of chronic liver disease (CLD), however their relative influences are not well understood. We aimed to determine liver-related morbidity and mortality attributable to fat and alcohol by stratifying a cohort of 202,638 women according to BMI and alcohol intake. Methods 107,742 women participating in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening where self-reported height, weight and alcohol intake were available were included. First episode related to cirrhosis (ICD-10 codes K70, K73, K74) either from inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics or death certificate was recorded following trial entry. Participants were stratified by low or high BMI ( Results Median age at recruitment was 60 years (50–75). Mean BMI was 26.4 kg/m2. There were 90 events (54 inpatient episodes and 36 deaths). There was no difference in risk of event between the BMI groups, however there was a significant increase in risk in the high alcohol group (Log-Rank Conclusion These data indicate that the combination of high BMI and alcohol intake is associated with a synergistically increased risk of CLD. Alcohol may be the more significant contributing factor. Further work will define thresholds for each risk factor that independently and in combination increase CLD risk. Disclosure of Interest None Declared

BACKGROUND Ovarian carcinoma (OC) is the fifth most frequent female cancer type and the fourth most frequent cause of death from cancer among women in Denmark. At the time they are diagnosed with OC, approximately 70% of patients have advanced disease. It is believed that loss of tumor suppressor gene activity plays an important role in the origin and progression of OC and other malignancies. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) may be detected in individuals heterozygous for an allele and is associated with loss of function of tumor suppressor genes. METHODS The polymorphic marker regions (TP53, CACNLB1, D18S58, DXS538, and DXS454) were amplified by polymerase chain reaction followed by separation using gel electrophoresis before LOH was identified. In total, 160 women with primary epithelial OC were included in the study. RESULTS Univariate analyses showed significant differences in survival between patients who had advanced OC with LOH or with retention using the microsatellite markers DXS454 (P = 0.04) and DXS538 (P = 0.01). Multivariate Cox regression analysis that included all patients showed that DXS454 (relative hazard [RH] = 3.5; P = 0.002; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.6–7.8), radicality of primary surgery (RH = 5.5; P < 0.0001; 95% CI, 2.7–11.1), and serum tetranectin level (RH = 0.8; P = 0.009; 95% CI, 0.7–0.9) were independent prognostic factors for survival. Multivariate Cox regression analysis restricted to patients with International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology Stage III–IV disease showed that DXS454 (RH = 3.4; P = 0.007; 95% CI, 1.4–8.1), radicality of primary surgery (RH = 5.4; P < 0.0001; 95% CI, 2.2–12.9), and serum tetranectin level (RH = 0.8; P = 0.042; 95% CI, 0.7–1.0) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS LOH at DXS454 (Xq21-q23) appeared to be correlated with reduced survival in patients with OC. Cancer 2004. © 2004 American Cancer Society.

OBJECTIVES: BRCA1 and BRCA2 germline mutations increase the risk of ovarian and breast cancer. Fallopian tube cancer has occasionally been observed in breast-ovarian cancer families. At our family cancer clinic we recently encountered two cases of Fallopian tube cancer within two families harboring a BRCA1 germline mutation. To study the relationship between Fallopian tube cancer and BRCA1 mutations, a histopathological reevaluation and molecular analysis were performed.METHODS: Medical and histopathological reports of the Fallopian tube cancer cases as well as archival tissue blocks were retrieved. The histopathological diagnoses were reevaluated. We investigated whether patients with Fallopian tube cancer had been carriers of a BRCA germline mutation. In addition we investigated whether loss of the wild-type allele had occurred in the tumor.RESULTS: In 2 of 23 families with a known BRCA1 mutation from our family cancer clinic, a case of Fallopian tube cancer was reported. Histological reevaluation confirmed the diagnosis of Fallopian tube cancer in both cases. In one case Fallopian tube cancer may have been part of a multifocal primary malignancy. In both patients the presence of a BRCA1 mutation was confirmed in the germline. Furthermore, we showed loss of the wild-type BRCA1 allele in both tumors.CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide the first molecular evidence that Fallopian tube cancer may be due to germline mutations in BRCA1. This may have important consequences for the preferred method of prophylactic oophorectomy in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

Noise continues to be a significant factor in the development of wind energy resources. In the case of building-mounted wind turbines (BMWTs), in addition to the usual airborne sound there is the potential for occupants to be affected by structure-borne sound and vibration transmitted through the building structure. Usual methods for prediction and evaluation of noise from large and small WTs are not applicable to noise of this type. This letter describes an investigation aiming to derive a methodology for prediction of structure-borne sound and vibration inside attached dwellings. Jointly funded by three UK government departments, the work was motivated by a desire to stimulate renewable energy generation by the removal of planning restrictions where possible. A method for characterizing BMWTs as sources of structure-borne sound was first developed during a field survey of two small wind turbines under variable wind conditions. The 'source strength' was established as a function of rotor speed although a general relationship to wind speed could not be established. The influence of turbulence was also investigated. The prediction methodology, which also accounts for the sound transmission properties of the mast and supporting building, was verified in a field survey of existing installations. Significant differences in behavior and subjective character were noted between the airborne and structure-borne noise from BMWTs.

Summary Background A polymorphism at codon 72 of the human tumour-suppressor gene, p53, results in translation to either arginine or proline. A recent report suggested that the risk of human-papillomavirus-associated cervical cancer in white women is higher for those homozygous for the arginine allele than for those who are heterozygous. We examined a similar number of cervical cancers and a larger control group for their p53 codon 72 polymorphism status to see if we could confirm this result. Methods Three different groups of UK white women were studied: 96 who had volunteered to take part in a trial of ovarian-cancer screening; 150 attending for routine antenatal care in the Oxford region; and 50 women with cervical cancer. DNA from peripheral blood samples and from archival tissue samples was examined by PCR with allele-specific primers. Findings The proportions of individuals homozygous for the arginine allele, homozygous for the proline allele, and heterozygous for the two alleles were 59%, 4%, and 36% among women screened for ovarian cancer; 65%, 8%, and 27% among the antenatal-care group; and 54%, 6%, and 40% in women with cervical cancer. X 2 analysis showed no significant differences in these proportions. Interpretation In the population studied, individuals homozyous for the arginine variant of codon 72 of the p53 gene were not at increased risk of cervical cancer.