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Like other low-income countries in Asia and Africa, Nepal still suffers from food insecurity with a large proportion of food-insecure households being smallholder farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood. Contributing factors include a lack of production, lack of resources, access to land and market, climate change, extreme events and underlying poverty. In this study, we aimed to examine the prevalence, cause of and response to food insecurity and assess how food security varies with respect to the regional variation. We also explored the role of changing climatic conditions in creating such adversities. Based on an analysis of the results from interviewing 384 farm households from three agro-ecological zones in Bagmati Province, we found that 56% of the farm households experienced food insecurity. The severity varied amongst the households with resource-poor, disadvantaged groups and those with limited land and income suffering the most severely from food insecurity. Households in the Mountains and the Hills zones were more food insecure than in the Terai zone. Climate change impacts were found to have amplified the risks of food insecurity amongst these rural households surviving under a largely subsistence agrarian economy. The results further suggest that the adaptive capacities of smallholder households can be increased by improving agricultural productivity through providing skills and training, better access to markets, extension services, credit and insurance schemes, along with access to climate-smart technologies, micro-irrigation, improved infrastructure, and storage facilities. Support from relevant governmental and non-governmental organizations is needed to help smallholder households, and their communities better manage the risks to their food security.

Forests are vital ecosystems on a global, regional and local scale, but are under threat from a variety of competing land uses. Integrated landscape approaches have been proposed as a way to create...

Ecosystem service valuation (ESV) can inform land-use change policy and adaptation responses to climate change in Pacific Small Island Developing States. Despite Small Island Developing States communities relying acutely and directly on ecosystem service (ES) flows, methodologies must contend with limited valuation data and challenges. We undertake ESV to generate coefficients we then apply to mapped habitat extents for Vanuatu. We find the contribution of ESs to the people of Vanuatu is considerable and significantly larger than its gross domestic product. Therefore, policies that support ecologically sustainable exploitation of ESs are paramount in promoting community well-being. We also identify and discuss context-specific methodological challenges, which, if not addressed, risk distorting valuations, supporting perverse policy responses, and eroding confidence in ESV. We make recommendations to address the challenges of accounting for ecosystem condition, data gaps, and consideration of customary benefits, provide context to the interpretation of our results, and suggest where further research can ameliorate risks.

Tourism is strongly interlinked with the natural and social environment, in particular in destinations around the Pacific. These environments are vulnerable to climate change which impacts on the social–ecological system of destinations. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) uses ecosystems to manage the risks of climate change. However, a gap remains in understanding how the tourism sector can use EbA to create destination-wide benefits. The destination EbA framework presented here aims to address this gap by focusing on well-being and climate risk reduction. The framework is applied to a Pacific case study site, Tanna Island in Vanuatu, by drawing on primary qualitative data. Results highlight that EbA offers an approach for the tourism sector to create holistic benefits to destinations. Several constraints to successful implementation, and how these may be overcome, are identified. The article contributes by providing a framework for other destinations which aim to create benefits through tourism.

Expectations for the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure’s framework to drive climate action in the private sector are high, and there is growing interest in its relevance for guiding public sector climate action. However, consideration of the framework’s limitations is critical prior to public sector application.

Global-scale conservation initiatives and policy instruments rely on ecosystem indicators to track progress towards targets and objectives. A deeper understanding of indicator interrelationships would benefit these efforts and help characterize ecosystem status. We study interrelationships among 34 indicators for mangroves, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, and develop data-driven, spatially explicit typologies of coastal wetland status at a global scale. After accounting for environmental covariates and gap-filling missing data, we obtained two levels of clustering at 5 and 18 typologies, providing outputs at different scales for different end users. We generated 2,845 cells (1° (lat) × 1° (long)) globally, of which 29.7% were characterized by high land- and marine-based impacts and a high proportion of threatened species, 13.5% by high climate-based impacts, and 9.6% were refuges with lower impacts, high fish density and a low proportion of threatened species. We identify instances where specific actions could have positive outcomes for coastal wetlands across regions facing similar issues. For example, land- and marine-based threats to coastal wetlands were associated with ecological structure and function indicators, suggesting that reducing these threats may reduce habitat degradation and threats to species persistence. However, several interdimensional relationships might be affected by temporal or spatial mismatches in data. Weak relationships mean that global biodiversity maps that categorize areas by single indicators (such as threats or trends in habitat size) may not be representative of changes in other indicators (e.g., ecosystem function). By simplifying the complex global mosaic of coastal wetland status and identifying regions with similar issues that could benefit from knowledge exchange across national boundaries, we help set the scene for globally and regionally coordinated conservation.

Small island developing states are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including more intense and frequent extreme weather, warming temperatures, coastal erosion, inundation, and coral ble...

Insurance represents an integral part of local government risk management strategy. As climate change progresses, increased loss and risk related to extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, could motivate insurers to withdraw from certain markets. In some regions, such a withdrawal represents an emergent risk that, when coupled with increasing populations and other climate change impacts, could leave local governments and ratepayers particularly vulnerable. This paper investigates such a scenario and its ramifications in the context of a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, through an exploration of the degree that consideration of emergent risks, such as loss of insurance, and the potential application of insurance alternatives influence Queensland local government risk management. The study finds little appreciation amongst government officials of emergent risk implicit in extreme weather events such as cyclones, little understanding of the nuances of risk transfer mechanisms beyond familiar traditional insurance and disaster funding mechanisms, and by default, a lack of appreciation of the relationship between the two. A lack of resource and leadership with respect to emergent risk, and an absence of dialogue between insurance brokers and local government concerning climate change risk arise as the main reasons for this result. This research is significant because it challenges current local government risk management practice through an exploration of the risks inherent in the process itself. This has potential social, economic and ecological ramifications in drawing attention to aspects of possible “uninsurability” and prospects of alleviation thereto. Further research is recommended to consider the insurance industry’s part in this study’s findings in order to inform current industry practice and thinking and further enlighten the causes of local government disengagement in this critical area.

Climate change is the world’s most pressing environmental issue, influencing almost all sectors of the economy. Agriculture is one of those sectors whose performance is primarily determined by an increasingly variable climate. Consequently, agriculture workers and particularly subsistence farmers are the proximate witnesses of the changing climate as their plight is one of having to struggle for their livelihood in the face of these emerging disruptions. Researchers in recent years have focused on ascertaining the perceived impacts of, and response to, climate change and agriculture. This study reviews the research specific to climate change-related experiences and observations of members of farming communities. Based on a systematic review of original research articles, published up until October 2016, the study reveals the status of in-field knowledge to inform future research. The review found that farmers worldwide have been experiencing changes in climate mainly regarding rising temperature, unpredictable and reduced rainfall. A majority have witnessed reduced agricultural production. Farmers hold differing explanations and respond accordingly to combat those changes. To orient adaptation measures towards those who are already experiencing and trying to respond to such changes, it is crucial to recognize and understand their views when formulating adaptation plans and policies.

Developing countries face risks from natural hazards that are being amplified by climate change. Selection of effective adaptation interventions to manage these risks requires a sufficiently accurate assessment of the coastal hazard at a given location. Yet challenges remain in terms of understanding local coastal risks given the coarseness of global wave models and the paucity of locally scaled data in most developing countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Vanuatu. The aim of this paper was to examine the differences in hazard assessment and adaptation option selections arising from analyses using globally versus locally scaled data on coastal processes. As a case study, we focused on an eroding cliff face in Port Resolution on Tanna Island, Vanuatu, which is of concern to the local community and government authorities. The coastal process modelling revealed that the global wave data generated unrealistically high predictions of wave height within Port Resolution bay. Expensive engineering adaptations designed to provide coastal protection were therefore likely to fail in preventing ongoing cliff erosion. In this case, the best adaptation solution involves changing land use to revegetate and help stabilise the cliff top. Our case study highlights the importance of accurate hazard assessment, especially in data poor regions where extrapolation of global datasets and models in the absence of local data can result in poor adaptation decision making. Furthermore, the multidisciplinary approach applied here can be applied in other data-poor regions to strengthen analyses exploring the benefits of local adaptation interventions.

Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of climate change risk and of how multiple risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex climate change risks has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding the interactions that generate risk, including the role of adaptation and mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present a framework for three categories of increasingly complex climate change risk that focus on interactions among the multiple drivers of risk, as well as among multiple risks. A significant innovation is recognizing that risks can arise both from potential impacts due to climate change and from responses to climate change. This approach encourages thinking that traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and links physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. Advancing climate change risk assessment in these ways is essential for more informed decision making that reduces negative climate change impacts. © 2021 The Authors

The red panda is a unique species taxonomically known for its peculiar biological and ecological characteristics, and extreme attractiveness. Despite being highly significant from conservation, scientific and economic perspectives, this species has experienced a declining population in the wild. Thus, to direct further research priorities and conservation actions and assess gaps in the current research trend of this species, a systematic literature review was conducted covering 175 journal articles published in English over 193 years (1827-2020). This review revealed that (1) the biological aspect was highly studied compared to other thematic areas of red panda (2) captive-based studies are relatively higher than the studies based in wild populations (3) China is leading the red panda studies amongst all red panda range (4) The universities were found contributing more to red panda studies than other institutions. Surprisingly, we found that the researchers from the non-range country were leading red panda study than those from range countries. Our review highlighted the need of prioritising studies in underrepresented locations and understudied thematic areas focusing on the assessment of climate change impact, bamboo distribution status, ecosystem services of red panda habitat, behavior and movement ecology, population estimation, and metapopulation dynamics. We urge landscape-level studies and long-term population monitoring. Besides, we also suggest the documentation and evaluation of the effectiveness of ongoing red panda-focused conservation programs. We also stress the need for strengthening the capacity of institutions and people from range countries.

Globally, baleen whales were severely depleted by historic whaling. Recovering populations have been observed to alter their behaviour. These changes have been attributed to climate change in some cases and raise concerns over the successful recovery of baleen whale populations. Current data‐driven statistical habitat and behavioural models have proven useful for addressing questions of whale distribution changes within their limitations. Given observed changes in oceanic conditions, a new approach to managing baleen whale population recovery is necessary. Model predictions of future whale movements and distributions under climate change scenarios are vital to enable adequate conservation management. This paper presents a new perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change on humpback whales, arguing the need for a system‐based multidisciplinary research approach. Our approach includes coupled, mechanistic models based upon robust ecological principles, and integrates key physical, biogeochemical, biological and ecological modules to address long‐term changes associated with climate change. To illustrate the need for this system‐based multidisciplinary approach, we focus on Southern Hemisphere humpback whales, the recovery of which may be impacted by rapid changes in habitat conditions brought about by anthropogenic climate change.

Coral reef ecosystems provide a broad spectrum of essential ecological, economic and cultural services for Small Island Developing State (SIDS) communities. However, coral reef communities are increasingly threatened by the adverse impacts of human activities at both global and local scales. This study aims to develop an integrated dynamic assessment framework to evaluate coral reef conditions under different adaptation and climate change scenarios, and their consequential economic impacts in the small island community of Port Resolution on Tanna Island in Vanuatu. Our assessment framework follows a sequential multilayered modelling approach that uses System Dynamics (SD) coupled with Bayesian Network (BN) modelling to deal with the complexity and dynamicity of socioeconomic and environmental systems, and impacts from trans-discipline variables. The BN incorporated existing data and expert knowledge to project the future conditions of coral reefs under different scenario settings, and to parametrise and quantify the SD model where the existing data and information was insufficient. The SD was then used to simulate the dynamic relationship between coral reef condition and the economic benefits derived from its ecosystem services under different climate change (i.e. RCPs) and management scenarios through to 2070. Our findings show that sustainable community-based conservation management strategies are key to preserving the flow of coral reef ecosystem services under RCP 2.6 and 6.0. Importantly, we demonstrate that the implementation of an integrated portfolio of management strategies better protects ecosystem services provided by coral reefs and maximises the total economic benefits achieved over the long-term despite a temporary and short-term economic loss due to high initial capital investments and income reduction due to fishing and tourism restrictions.

Urban food systems are connected with several pressing issues, including urban population growth, resource scarcity, and climate change. To cope within these issues, urban food systems need to become more sustainable in their practices, as well as resilient in the face of extreme weather events. While scholars have started to investigate this topic, no comprehensive analysis has yet addressed what entails sustainable and resilient urban food systems. Through a systematic review of the literature, this paper aims to improve our understanding of the key components of sustainable and resilient urban food systems. This study reviewed 53 publications and identified components related to the health, social, economy, environment, and governance domains. Only 5 of the works included in the review discussed sustainability and resilience to the impacts of climate change in urban food systems simultaneously, so there is an opportunity for original research and analysis. The most frequently identified components of urban food systems relate to: access to healthy food; connectivity between urban and rural areas; having a strong local food economy and food production; reducing food waste; and, having active participation of all actors in decision making. There is some level of consensus on linking sustainability and resilience, but diversity in food sources and the development of social capabilities need to be emphasised for climate change adaptation.

Wilderness areas are ecologically intact landscapes predominantly free of human uses, especially industrial-scale activities that result in substantial biophysical disturbance. This definition does not exclude land and resource use by local communities who depend on such areas for subsistence and bio-cultural connections. Wilderness areas are important for biodiversity conservation and sustain key ecological processes and ecosystem services that underpin planetary life-support systems. Despite these widely recognized benefits and values of wilderness, they are insufficiently protected and are consequently being rapidly eroded. There are increasing calls for multilateral environmental agreements to make a greater and more systematic contribution to wilderness conservation before it is too late. We created a global map of remaining terrestrial wilderness following the established last-of-the-wild method, which identifies the 10% of areas with the lowest human pressure within each of Earth's 62 biogeographic realms and identifies the 10 largest contiguous areas and all contiguous areas >10,000 km2 . We used our map to assess wilderness coverage by the World Heritage Convention and to identify gaps in coverage. We then identified large nationally designated protected areas with good wilderness coverage within these gaps. One-quarter of natural and mixed (i.e., sites of both natural and cultural value) World Heritage Sites (WHS) contained wilderness (total of 545,307 km2 ), which is approximately 1.8% of the world's wilderness extent. Many WHS had excellent wilderness coverage, for example, the Okavango Delta in Botswana (11,914 km2 ) and the Central Suriname Nature Reserve (16,029 km2 ). However, 22 (35%) of the world's terrestrial biorealms had no wilderness representation within WHS. We identified 840 protected areas of >500 km2 that were predominantly wilderness (>50% of their area) and represented 18 of the 22 missing biorealms. These areas offer a starting point for assessing the potential for the designation of new WHSs that could help increase wilderness representation on the World Heritage list. We urge the World Heritage Convention to ensure that the ecological integrity and outstanding universal value of existing WHS with wilderness values are preserved.

Formal protected areas are a critical conservation measure so long as their tenure is defined and secure and they are well managed. Protected areas in developed countries are assumed to meet these criteria and therefore have not attracted the level of attention given to the adequacy of protected areas in developing countries. We investigate this assumption using as a case study the southern temperate rainforests of Tasmania, Australia. We examine the extent to which these rainforests are protected from potential exposure to mining, commercial logging and climate change. We analyse the tenure of Tasmania's rainforests and identify the protected area categories that prohibit or allow mining or logging. We also model the potential distribution of Nothofagus cunninghamii, a dominant rainforest canopy tree species, to future climate and compare this with modelled current and future forest fire danger index. Results showed that 90% of the total area of Tasmanian rainforest (715,773 ha− 1) is in a reserve. However, the area of rainforest in reserves secured from mining and/or commercial logging is only 47% (335,863 ha− 1) as 43% (308,897 ha− 1) is in a reserve category where these land uses are permitted. The protected area category with the highest level of protection, prohibiting all mining and logging, is the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area which encompasses 325,920 ha− 1 of temperate rainforest. During a recent legislative review, 66,012 ha− 1 of rainforest in protected areas was downgraded to a reserve category that permits logging or mining. A key conservation instrument therefore is the Management Plan for the World Heritage Area as it overrides land use activities otherwise permitted including the 21,257 ha− 1 which is on a State-defined land tenure that allows for logging or mining. Climate change impacts, as modelled, suggest the main conservation challenges are in maintaining the integrity of the remaining intact rainforest blocks and better managing ignitions from lightning strikes and arsonists in the coniferous and alpine rainforests. Allowing structural degradation and fragmentation to intact rainforest blocks will reduce their capacity to buffer meso-climatic variability and resist fire events thereby undermining their ecosystem integrity. Noting that Aichi Target 11 includes the requirement that reserves are effectively managed, our case study highlights that assessing the effectiveness of a reserve system is not necessarily a straightforward matter as governance systems and regulatory frameworks involve a mix of international obligations, national and subnational policies and statutes, along with other agreements, administrative arrangements and plans of management, which can provide for a range of land use activities and be subject to modification over time.

The long-term goal of containing average warming below the 2 °C limit requires deep cuts in emissions from all sectors. The fast growing global aviation industry has committed to reduce carbon emissions. Carbon offsetting is an integral element of the sector's strategy. Already, airlines offer voluntary carbon offsetting to those customers who wish to mitigate the impact of their travel. To ensure carbon offsetting can make a meaningful and credible contribution, this paper first discusses the science behind ‘carbon offsetting’, followed by the associated policy perspective. Then, against the context of different aviation emissions pathways, the paper provides empirical evidence of current airline practices in relation to offsetting mechanisms and communication. Building on these insights, the challenges of reducing aviation emissions and using carbon credits to compensate for ongoing growth are discussed. The paper concludes by proposing five principles of best practice for carbon offsetting that airlines can use as a basis to develop credible emissions strategies, and that could inform the sectoral framework currently being developed by leading aviation organisations.

Tourism is inherently dependent on weather and climate, and its sustainability and resilience to adverse weather and climate impacts is greatly enhanced by providing tailored climate services to tourism sector stakeholders. Climate services need to integrate standard weather forecasts, with early warning systems, seasonal forecasts, and long-term projections of climatic changes in order to meet the information needs of the sector. While a growing number of studies address the potential climate change impacts on tourism, little is known about how the tourism sector accesses, uses, and analyses the available weather and climate information.This research presents findings from an exploratory study on weather and climate information-seeking behavior of 15 private and public tourism sector stakeholders in the Republic of Fiji. The results show a variety of weather and climate information-seeking paths in use, which differ depending on levels of professional responsibility, weather and climate literacy, and information and digital competency. Those with high weather information literacy access a broader variety of sources. Hence, their interpretation does not focus only on their own location, but “weather” is seen as a broad spatial phenomenon that might or might not result in adverse effects in their location. Understanding diverse weather and climate information-seeking paths can aid in better targeting climate and adaptation services across different stakeholder groups. Especially in the context of small island developing states (SIDS), the integration of traditional, local, and scientific knowledge as information sources is likely to provide a more useful and context-specific basis for climate adaptation planning within the sector.

The unprecedented challenges posed by climate change necessitate agricultural adaptation by farmers, especially in the regions of Asia, where rain-fed agriculture is the principal source of food production. Studying adaptation not only assists in knowing how farmers are dealing with the repercussions of climate change, but also provides the baseline for the planned interventions which are essential in this era of human-instigated climate change. We used case study data to examine whether and how subsistence-oriented smallholder farmers in three agro-ecological zones of Nepal (Terai, Hill, and Mountain) are developing and implementing adaptation strategies. The findings from small farm household interviews (n = 384), key informant interviews (n = 33), and focus group discussions (n = 3) suggest that farmers are dealing with the challenges facing their traditional agricultural practices. The main adaptation strategies include changing crop types and varieties, adding fertilizers, the use of new technologies, soil and water management, diversification of income sources, and migration. Both climatic and non-climatic factors were found to influence these subsistence smallholder farmers’ adaptation practices. However, climatic factors that are beyond individual control threatened the livelihood of rural farmers who predominantly rely on natural resources for their livelihood and income. The findings highlight the interplay of multiple agents: local farmers, community-based organizations, and the local and central government organizations in the role they play in assisting farmers adapt to the impacts of climate change; this interplay emphasizes the need for collaboration for effective adaptation. The findings from this study can inform policymakers about ongoing adaptation measures as well as the needs of farmers. This information can assist in bridging the gap between farm households and policymakers and help develop suitable policies and effective adaptation strategies within this local Nepalese context.

Vegetated coastal wetlands, including seagrass, saltmarsh and mangroves, are threatened globally, yet the need to avert these losses is poorly recognized in international policy, such as in the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals. Identifying the impact of overlooking coastal wetlands in ecosystem assessment frameworks could help prioritize research efforts to fill these gaps. Here, we examine gaps in the recognition of coastal wetlands in globally applicable ecosystem assessments. We address both shortfalls in assessment frameworks when it comes to assessing wetlands, and gaps in data that limit widespread application of assessments. We examine five assessment frameworks that track fisheries, greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem threats, and ecosystem services. We found that these assessments inform management decisions, but that the functions provided by coastal wetlands are incompletely represented. Most frameworks had sufficient complexity to measure wetland status, but limitations in data meant they were incompletely informed about wetland functions and services. Incomplete representation of coastal wetlands may lead to them being overlooked by research and management. Improving the coverage of coastal wetlands in ecosystem assessments requires improving global scale mapping of wetland trends, developing global-scale indicators of wetland function and synthesis to quantitatively link animal population dynamics to wetland trends. Filling these gaps will help ensure coastal wetland conservation is properly informed to manage them for the outstanding benefits they bring humanity.

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets; and a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity.Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration, cross-fertilisation of ideas, and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVL's goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met. BCCVL facilitates and expedites modelling of climate change's impact on biodiversity.BCCVL integrates numerous species distribution modelling tools and myriad datasets.BCCVL negates the need for advanced programming and modelling expertise.BCCVL allows for increases in productivity and complexity of experimental design.BCCVL facilitates the sharing of data promoting transparency in the research process.

There is growing interest in using ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) to maintain or restore ecosystem services to increase human resilience to climate change. However, to date, the focus on EbA has been on conceptualising the approach and encouraging its use, rather than understanding EbA in practice. We review the EbA literature to synthesise where, why and how marine and coastal EbA projects have been implemented and examine how EbA has been integrated with marine spatial planning. We focus specifically on EbA projects in Asia and Oceania, where climate variability and dependence on marine and coastal ecosystems is high. Most projects were found in the grey literature, implemented in developing countries, and targeted extreme events and sea level rise. Mangroves, particularly mangrove restoration, was the most common ecosystem used, followed by coral reefs. EbA across ecosystems commonly targeted capacity building and livelihood enhancement, and maintenance of wildlife, alongside shoreline protection for mangroves and food security for coral reefs. Integrated EbA and marine spatial planning projects were participatory, implemented at local–regional scales, displayed adaptive management, and community-based or shared governance. Our research helps to build an understanding of EbA in practice and a knowledge base to assist coastal communities in adapting to climate change.

Planning and decision-making vastly benefit from a holistic and systematic understanding of the long-term impacts of climate change and other non-climatic stressors on the health and resilience of coral reef ecosystems, and the efficacy of adaptation strategies and management interventions on mitigating these impacts and maintaining ecosystem condition and associated ecosystem service. This study reports on an approach to modelling coral reef stressors and possible adaptation interventions using the coral reef ecosystem of Port Resolution on Tanna Island, Vanuatu as the case study serving as a microcosm of endangered Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS). A novel participatory modelling framework was developed and followed in a stepwise manner to integrate local and long-term climate change pressures by coupling structural analysis and the Bayesian Network (BN) techniques. The BN model was quantified through an advanced consolidated data-induced, evidence-based, and expert-driven approach that incorporated: (1) projections of future climate conditions and changing human activities; (2) the influences of multiple stressors including physical environmental and sociological factors; and (3) spatial variability in the key processes and variables. The first and second phases conceptualised the whole system by providing a graphical presentation of system variables within the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact (DPSI) framework using the structural analysis technique. In the third phase, the BN technique was used to integrate the outcomes of multidisciplinary assessments and analysis with experts’ opinion. The BN modelling phase was completed based on evidence extracted from literature which reported the results of regional and downscaled climate models, GIS-based analysis, parametrised data obtained from the region, and tacit knowledge elicited from experts. The validated model was employed to anticipate the future health and resilience condition of coral reefs under different sets of climatic trajectories and adaptive responses scenarios. The results predict the risks to the health and resilience of the Port Resolution coral reef system from the adverse impacts of climate change and harmful human activities and the possible success of adaptations strategies. A sobering conclusion was that despite the current satisfactory condition of coral reefs in the case study zone, their health and resilience would be severely threatened by 2070 in the absence of implementing adaptation strategies and associated sustainable management interventions.

In the international climate policy arena, Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) has become the preferred adaptation approach to climate change in the least developed and developing countries. Its perceived strength lies in the premise that adaptation strategies need to address both ecosystems and livelihoods simultaneously, given these are crucially intertwined and both under a threat from climate change. While EbA has certainly made progress as an adaptation approach, a lack of understanding still exists how EbA approaches contribute to ‘effective’ adaptation, including the circumstances where they face constraints and limits. Furthermore, implementation of EbA approaches ideally requires a level of understanding about ecosystem structure, productivity and dynamics, and how these are affected by climate change and other direct anthropogenic stressors, that are rarely available in developing countries. This paper aimed to synthesise the current knowledge in the emerging body of EbA specific literature on the kinds of constraints that hamper the use of EbA. Our analysis examined the following constraints: economic and financial, governance and institutional, social and cultural, knowledge constraints and gaps, and physical and biological constraints and limits. The identified constraints demonstrate the complexities in developing, implementing, monitoring and evaluating EbA and propose significant further areas of research, including the need to provide well-documented case studies of EbA, which crystallise the main lessons learned such as practical challenges in designing and implementing EbA projects and research programs.

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links.

• The impacts of human-forced climate change will continue to be felt for millennia, irrespective of our success or failure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. • Therefore, climate change adaptation must be understood as a ‘forever’ activity and mainstreamed in policy, planning and decision-making. • In parallel, we are witnessing unprecedented land use change in terms of extent and intensification that is transforming the land surface, together with subsurface processes, in ways as profound as climate change. • Policies and programs that aim to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the land sector will continue to be a key component of Australia’s response to its Paris Agreement commitments. • We have the data and information to address these emerging pressures; however, we lack the public understanding, political will and national policy to require their use.

Economic growth is often in conflict with environmental goals. Biodiversity offsetting attempts to resolve this conflict by requiring industries to compensate for the biodiversity loss they cause, by generating an equivalent biodiversity gain elsewhere. Offsets for environmental impacts are increasingly being seen as a way to help meet preexisting conservation targets, such as those relating to the establishment and management of protected areas. We examine how using offsets to meet a state or organization's genuine commitments, which are not contingent on the offsets, results in no additional conservation benefit. In this case, either the offset or the preexisting commitment is invalid. For example, the use of offsets to meet commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity requires an admission that those commitments would otherwise not be met. This interaction between international agreements around protected areas and offset policy can generate perverse incentives, which must be carefully managed to avoid poor conservation outcomes. We propose separate accounting for conservation gains generated using offsets, and that future conservation agreements and targets should explicitly separate commitments met using offset gains from those which are not reliant on equivalent losses.

Primary forests are forests that are: (1) largely undisturbed by industrial-scale land uses and infrastructure such as logging, mining, and dams and roads; (2) the result of ecological and evolutionary processes including the full range of successional stages over time and with natural disturbance processes operating within historic bounds; (3) more likely to possess the full complement of their evolved, characteristic plant and animal species with few if any exotics; (4) dominated by a largely continuous tree canopy cover, and (5) have unpolluted soil and water. These forests are major strongholds for biodiversity and include the planet's most biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems. They provide essential climate change mitigation and adaptation, freshwater, and other ecosystem service benefits. They are also critically important for livelihoods and for cultural and spiritual reasons and are home for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Primary forests are unfortunately in rapid decline globally. Over centuries, Earth has lost about 35% of its preagricultural forest cover. Today, only about 32% (~ 1.3 billion hectares) of the world's forests are primary forest. We know that protected areas, indigenous, and community conservation are effective mechanisms for maintaining primary forests. National and international forest policies should prioritize the conservation of our planet's remaining primary forests.

From seawalls to levees and desalination plants to dams, capital works projects have become a widely accepted climate adaptation strategy in the coastal zone. With the reality of anthropogenic climate change and associated rising sea levels and an increase in the intensity of extreme weather events, there is a growing need for a range of adaptation interventions. The use of capital works for shoreline stabilisation has a long history and is an established engineering response to the protection of buildings and infrastructure from erosion or long term recession. While capital works often succeed in their primary objective of shoreline stabilisation to protect built assets from damage by erosion or inundation, by interrupting coastal processes they are often responsible for unintended consequences in other locations and at other times. In addition to these unintended consequences, case studies of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina and Sendai prefecture during the 2010 Tokoku earthquake illustrate how the engineering design process, and particularly the need for a ‘design storm’, is a critical adaptation limit for capital works projects in the face of ongoing global climatic disruption. A key research problem is to identify the precise circumstances under which use of capital works is an appropriate and cost effective coastal climate change adaptation strategy, those where a soft-engineering approach that makes use of natural processes such as beach nourishment is preferable, and the situations where an ecosystem-based approach, that draws upon the ecosystem services of natural ecosystems to mitigate climate change impacts, is likely to be more cost effective or resilient.

Foreword Sir Tim Smit, co-founder, The Eden Project Introduction Malcolm McIntosh, Griffith University Part 1: History and Transition Theory 1. Contested Futures: Conceptions of the Next Long-Term Development Cycle Professor Mark Swilling, Sustainability Institute, Stellenbosch University 2. Radical openness and contextualisation: reflections on a decade of learning for sustainability at the Sustainability Institute, Stellenbosch, South Africa Eve Annecke, Sustainability Institute 3. The Devil is in the Synergy: Exhibiting Transitions at the Hypothetical Museum of the Future Richard Cassels, Director, Climate Leadership 4. Transformations and Translations of Japanese Business Society Kyoko Fukukawa, Bradford University School of Management, and Sunil Manghani, York St John University Part 2: Re-Seeing The World: Paradigm Shifts and Action 5. Occupation or Action: can they be more or less than the sum of their parts? Sara Parkin, Founder Director, Forum for the Future 6. The Pillars of Peace: Identifying the Elements that Allow Human Potential to Flourish Steve Killelea, Executive Chairman and Founder, Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) 7. The Wicked Problem of Developing a New Social Contract for the Necessary Transition Sandra Waddock, Boston College Carroll School of Management 8. Together: The Power of Collaboration Caroline Digby, The Eden Project 9. Boundary Objects, HRM Tools and Change for Sustainability Suzanne Benn, University of Technology, Sydney, and Cathy Rusinko, Philadelphia University Part 3: Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Business & Finance 10. Climate change is everyone's business Brendan Mackey, Griffith University 11. Industry Transformation through Sustainable Entrepreneurship: Examples in the Apparel and Energy Industries Stefan Schaltegger and Erik G. Hansen, Leuphana Universitat Luneburg 12. Public Policy Processes for Transition to a Sustainable Enterprise Society: The Case of Extractive Industries Ciaran O'Faircheallaigh, Griffith University 13. Sustainable Development: Continuing to Re-earn our Licence to Operate Bill Champion, Managing Director, Rio Tinto Coal Australia 14. Currencies of transition: Transforming money to unleash sustainability Jem Bendell, Institute for Leadership and Sustainability, University of Cumbria, UK and Griffith Business School, Queensland, Australia and Thomas H. Greco, BeyondMoney.net

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distribu- tions to future conditions. 2 We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially expli- cit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate models and two contrasting emissions scenarios. 3 Our case study results illustrate how different sources of uncertainty have different impacts on model output and how the geographic distribution of uncertainty can vary. 4 Synthesis and applications: We provide a conceptual framework for under- standing sources of uncertainty based on a review of potential sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling; a tool for simulating uncer- tainty in species distribution models; and protocols for dealing with uncer- tainty due to climate models and emissions scenarios. Our tool provides a step forward in understanding and communicating the impacts of uncer- tainty on species distribution models under future climates which will be particularly helpful for informing discussions between researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.

We identify policies that would provide a solid foundation in key international negotiations to ensure that primary forests persist into the 21st Century. A novel compilation of primary forest cover and other data revealed that protection of primary forests is a matter of global concern being equally distributed between developed and developing countries. Almost all (98%) of primary forest is found within 25 countries with around half in five developed ones (USA, Canada, Russia, Australia, and NZ). Only 22% of primary forest is found in IUCN Protected Areas Categories I‐VI, which is approximately 5% of preagriculture natural forest cover. Rates of deforestation and forest degradation are rapid and extensive, and the long-term integrity of primary forest cannot be assumed. We recommend four new actions that could be included in climate change, biodiversity, and sustainable development negotiations: (1) recognize primary forests as a matter of global concern within international negotiations; (2) incorporate primary forests into environmental accounting; (3) prioritize the principle of avoided loss; and (4) universally accept the important role of indigenous and community conserved areas. In the absence of specific policies for primary forest protection, their unique biodiversity values and ecosystem services will continue to erode.

In pursuit of a more robust provenance in the field of species distribution modelling, an extensive literature search was undertaken to find the typical default values, and the range of values, for configuration settings of a large number of the most commonly used statistical algorithms available for constructing species distribution models (SDM), as implemented in the R script packages (such as Dismo and Biomod2) or other species distribution modelling programs like MaxEnt. We found that documentation of SDM algorithm configuration option settings in the SDM literature is, overall, very uncommon, and the justifications for these settings were minimal, when present. Such settings were often the R default values, or were the result of trial and error. This is potentially concerning since: (i) it detracts from the robustness of the provenance for such SDM studies; (ii) a lack of documentation of configuration option settings in a paper prevents the replication of an experiment, which contravenes one of the main tenets of the scientific method; (iii) inappropriate or uninformed configuration option settings are particularly concerning if they represent a poorly understood ecological variable or process, and if the algorithm is sensitive to such settings, this could result in erroneous and/or unrealistic SDMs. Therefore, this study sets out to comprehensively test the sensitivity of eight widely used SDM algorithms to variation in configuration options settings: MaxEnt, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA), Surface Range Envelope (SRE) and Classification tree analysis (CTA). A process of expert elicitation was used to derive a range of appropriate values with which to test the sensitivity of our algorithms. We chose to use species occurrence records for two species - Koala (Phascolartos cinereus) and Thorny Devil (Moloch horridus) - in order to investigate how algorithm sensitivity depends on the species being modelled. Results were assessed by comparing the modelled distribution of the control SDM (default settings) to the modelled distribution from each sensitivity test SDM (i.e. non-default configuration settings). This was done using the visual and statistical measures of predictive performance available in the Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), including the area under the (receiver operating characteristic) curve. The aim of our study was to be able to draw conclusions as to how the sensitivity of SDM algorithms to their configuration option settings may detract from the reliability of SDM results, given the often unjustified and unscrutinized use of the default settings, and generally infrequent and largely perfunctory attendance to this issue in most of the published SDM literature. Our results indicate that all of the algorithms tested showed sensitivity to alternative (non-default) values for some of their configuration settings and that often this sensitivity is species-dependent. Therefore we can conclude that the choice of configuration settings in these widely used SDM algorithms can have a large impact on the resulting projected distribution. This has important ramifications for decision-making and policy outcomes wherever SDMs are used to inform species and biodiversity management plans and policy settings. This study demonstrates that assigning suitable values for these settings is a very important consideration and as such should always be published along with the model. Documenting all configuration settings is necessary to increase the scientific robustness, transparency and reproducibility of species distribution modelling studies.

The Great Western Woodlands in S.W. Australia is the largest remaining expanse of temperate woodland on the continent and globally, providing habitat for a significance number of bird species. Conservation planning needs information about bird distributions and habitat resource requirements. Using published information, bird habitat functional groups were identified based upon species that use similar vegetation-based resources. Data from four satellite-borne sensors were analysed to model the distribution of a subset of the key vegetation variables. These results were then used to predict the potential distribution of the functional groups. Field validation suggests ongoing advances in satellite data will enhance the model’s accuracy.

Background Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Results Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. Conclusions A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Calls for threat management actions to protect biodiversity and restore ecosystem function are rarely coupled with costed and prioritized sets of management actions for use in decision making. We present a cost-effectiveness approach for prioritizing threat management to maximize the in situ protection of biodiversity per dollar spent. The approach draws on empirical data and expert knowledge of major threats to biodiversity, feasible threat management actions, and likely responses of biodiversity to a set of costed management scenarios. An application assessing 637 vertebrate wildlife species in the Kimberley region of north-western Australia suggests that the likely functional loss of 45 mammals, birds, and reptiles over the next 20 years can be averted by effectively managing fire, grazing, and invasive species for approximately AU$40 million per year. Our approach is flexible and may be useful for delivering transparent guidance for conserving species and ecosystems in other regions, including those where data is limited.

Summary A framework is presented for terrestrial conservation assessment that has been developed for Bush Heritage, an Australian non-profit organisation that manages land of outstanding conservation value through acquisition or working in partnership with other landowners. The framework is called Biodiversity Prediction using Ecological Processes and comprises seven conservation goals, with a set of candidate criteria and indicators for each goal. Particular emphasis is given to criteria that relate to habitat quality in addition to the more conventional focus on land quantity. The MCAS-S graphic user interface is used to help analyse the indicators and visualise the results in a transparent way that assists the decision-making process. The interface also allows indicators to be weighted differently, which among other things, allows analyses to reflect inter-regional differences in what represents high quality land. The framework was tested in a case study region (the Woodland region of south-eastern Australia), and the results reveal land that is potentially a priority for conservation investments. While the framework and case study results are indicative, and further analyses are required before they can be considered operational, the approach has potential application to other organisations in the private conservation sector.

The paper demonstrates the need to integrate across information types (i.e. weather, climate, socio-economic, policy and ecology) to better inform those involved in decision-making for ecosystem management. The provision of climate information and an understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change and variability urgently need to underpin any planning for the future. Integrating climatic information into risk assessment frameworks and adaptation planning is essential as it will enable better informed decision making in planning to ensure the adequate provision of ecosystem services (water, food, air quality, shelter etc) and appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for the well being of both people and nature. A substantial mindset shift to fully recognize the fundamental role of ecosystems as life-supporting systems is urgently needed. The value given to ecosystems and the magnitude of effort to manage them has to be based on this mere fact and indeed, it should be an integral part of any climate change agreement.

A common approach to nature conservation is to identify and protect natural 'assets' such as ecosystems and threatened species. While such actions are essential, protection of assets will not be effective unless the ecological processes that sustain them are maintained. Here, we consider the role of ecological processes and the complementary perspective for conservation arising from an emphasis on process. Many kinds of ecological processes sustain biodiversity: including climatic processes, primary productivity, hydrological processes, formation of biophysical habitats, interactions between species, movements of organisms and natural disturbance regimes. Anthropogenic threats to conservation exert their influence by modifying or disrupting these processes. Such threats extend across tenures, they frequently occur offsite, they commonly induce non-linear responses, changes may be irreversible and the full consequences may not be experienced for lengthy periods. While many managers acknowledge these considerations in principle, there is much scope for greater recognition of ecological processes in nature conservation and greater emphasis on long time-frames and large spatial scales in conservation planning. Practical measures that promote ecological processes include: monitoring to determine the trajectory and rate of processes; incorporating surrogates for processes in conservation and restoration projects; specific interventions to manipulate and restore processes; and planning for the ecological future before options are foreclosed. The long-term conservation of biodiversity and the well-being of human society depend upon both the protection of natural assets and maintaining the integrity of the ecological processes that sustain them.

Aim Most approaches to conservation prioritization are focused on biodiversity features that are already threatened. While this is necessary in the face of accelerating anthropogenic threats, there have been calls to conserve large intact landscapes, often termed ’wilderness', to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity. In this study, we examine the consequences of directing conservation expenditure using a threat-based framework for wilderness conservation. Location The Australian continent. Methods We measured the degree of congruence between the extent of wilderness and the Australian protected area network in 2000 and 2006, which was established using a threat-based systematic planning framework. We also assessed priority areas for future reserve acquisitions identified by the Australian government under the current framework. Results In 2000, 14 of Australia's wilderness was under formal protection, while the protected area network covered only 8.5 of the continent, suggesting a historical bias towards wilderness protection. However, the expansion of the reserve system from 2000 to 2006 was biased towards non-wilderness areas. Moreover, 90 of the wilderness that was protected over this period comprised areas not primarily designated for biodiversity conservation. We found a significant (P < 0.05) negative relationship between bioregions considered to be a priority for future reserve prioritization and the amount of wilderness they contain. Main conclusions While there is an urgent need to overcome past biases in reserve network design so as to better protect poorly represented species and habitats, prioritization approaches should not become so reactive as to ignore the role that large, intact landscapes play in conserving biodiversity, especially in a time of human-induced climate change. This can be achieved by using current or future threats rather than past threats to prioritize areas, and by incorporating key ecological processes and costs of acquisition and management within the planning framework. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

There is considerable discussion about the relative importance of conserving high quality wilderness areas (i.e. large and intact landscapes) versus conserving areas with high biodiversity values. Places that are needed to achieve one aspect of biodiversity conservation are not necessarily optimal for another which can lead to conflict in assigning conservation priorities. However, both are important for biodiversity conservation, and carry social, economic, and ecological values. Investment in both (a) representation of elements of biodiversity (e.g. species, habitats) and (b) wilderness conservation is not only complementary but important for the long-term persistence of biodiversity. We develop two approaches to identify areas important for the conservation of biodiversity in terms of both wilderness quality and biodiversity representation, using Australia as a case study. We defined intact areas as sub-catchments with at least 70% or more vegetation that has not been subjected to extensive habitat loss and fragmentation as the result of land clearing. The first approach aims to achieve biodiversity representation goals in areas with intact native vegetation. The results of this approach would be extremely expensive to implement as they require a large portion of land. The second approach aims to achieve biodiversity representation goals anywhere across the landscape while placing a strong emphasis on identifying spatially compact intact areas. The results of this approach show the trade-offs between the economic costs of conservation and the size of conservation areas containing intact native vegetation. This manuscript provides a novel framework for identifying cost-effective biodiversity conservation priorities inclusive of wilderness quality.

Systematic conservation planning research has focused on designing systems of conservation areas that efficiently protect a comprehensive and representative set of species and habitats. Recently, there has been an emphasis on improving the adequacy of conservation area design to promote the persistence and future generation of biodiversity. Few studies have explored incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes into conservation planning assessments. Biodiversity in Australia is maintained and generated by numerous ecological and evolutionary processes at various spatial and temporal scales. We accommodated ecological and evolutionary processes in four ways: (1) using sub-catchments as planning units to facilitate the protection of the integrity and function of ecosystem processes occurring on a sub-catchment scale; (2) targeting one type of ecological refugia, drought refugia, which are critical for the persistence of many species during widespread drought; (3) targeting one type of evolutionary refugia which are important for maintaining and generating unique biota during long-term climatic changes; and (4) preferentially grouping priority areas along vegetated waterways to account for the importance of connected waterways and associated riparian areas in maintaining processes. We identified drought refugia, areas of relatively high and regular herbage production in arid and semiarid Australia, from estimates of gross primary productivity derived from satellite data. In this paper, we combined the novel incorporation of these processes with a more traditional framework of efficiently representing a comprehensive sample of biodiversity to identify spatial priorities across Australia. We explored the trade-offs between economic costs, representation targets, and connectivity. Priority areas that considered ecological and evolutionary processes were more connected along vegetated waterways and were identified for a small increase in economic cost. Priority areas for conservation investment are more likely to have long-term benefits to biodiversity if ecological and evolutionary processes are considered in their identification.

Governments should not meet existing conservation targets using the compensation that developers pay for damaging biodiversity, say Martine Maron and colleagues.

This paper briefly reviews the process of exotic pest risk assessments and presents some examples of emerging opportunities for spatial bioclimatic modeling of exotic species in Canada. This type of analysis can support risk assessments but does not replace the need for on-going high quality field-based observations to validate and update models. Bioclimatic analysis of several exotic pests is provided to illustrate both opportunities and limits. A link is demonstrated to the National Forest Inventory to characterize timber volumes at risk for one exotic species. ‘Challenges' are both scientific and administrative. More accessible and current field survey data are required to improve models. Our experience is that for many exotic species, historical, and even current, data are not always digital or quality controlled for taxonomic identity and accurate geo-referencing. This inhibits their use for integrated spatial modeling applications.

The prevailing scientific approach to investigating and understanding the environmental consequences of human-induced global change is underpinned by two basic biological principles. First, the principle that species genetically adapt to changing environment conditions. Second, the principle that nutrients present in the environment in the smallest relative concentrations limit biological productivity. We contend that both principles have been formulated based on the results of investigations into either artificially selected organisms, or anthropogenically perturbed landscapes. In both these cases, organisms are studied outside their natural ecological niche. We argue that natural ecosystems do not conform to the above two principles. Non-perturbed biota of natural ecological communities form and maintain optimal environment conditions by buffering the flux of primary environmental resources that would otherwise randomly fluctuate as the result of purely physical processes. In such a biotically-mediated environment the availability of nutrients does not limit biological productivity. Critically, the capacity of the biota to regulate local environment conditions obviates the need for species to continually adapt to random environmental fluctuations. We illustrate how the failure to distinguish between the functioning of perturbed and unperturbed biota prevents the development of policies and strategies that will lead to the long term resolution of the global ecological crisis.

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

It is generally recognized that plants are genetically adapted to prevailing climate. However, there are very few genecological studies that quantify these relationships. Planting stock is often moved across environmental gradients with little knowledge of the ecological risks. For long-lived species (e.g. forest trees) this introduces risks of increased mortality, lowered potential growth rates, and increased susceptibility to insects and diseases. Seedwhere is a computer-based tool to support decisions on moving plant material across environmental gradients. The Gower similarity metric has been invoked as an Avenue extension in the ARCVIEW Geographic Information System. The program can be used to map the similarity of potential seed collection sites across large regions. Considerable effort has gone into developing the required GIS database for the Great Lakes region of North America. Such data are becoming increasingly available in many parts of the world. Some example applications of Seedwhere are provided for the Great Lakes region. While no panacea for this complex and large problem, the seedwhere tool provides a quantitative approach to visualizing the issue that should help resource managers.

This paper presents the results of a bioclimatic and spatial analysis of reptiles and amphibians native to Ontario. Using a large database of known observations and a new spatially explicit climate model of the entire province, climatic domains of 43 species and subspecies were derived and subsequently mapped. A useful aspect of the analysis is that it not only explicitly summarizes what is currently known about species occurrences, it also identifies those parts of the province which have a similar climate. This will assist in designing field survey and monitoring programs and ecological restoration activities. By overlaying each of the 43 maps in a Geographic Information System, regions of the province with potentially large species gradients were identified. These areas are currently the focus of ongoing field studies.