1. Decision-Dependent Uncertainty Modeling in Power System Operational Reliability Evaluations
- Author
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Kaigui Xie, Chunyan Li, Lvbin Peng, Congcong Pan, Changzheng Shao, Tao Niu, and Bo Hu
- Subjects
Computer science ,Stochastic process ,business.industry ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,Reliability engineering ,Renewable energy ,Operational reliability ,Variable (computer science) ,Electric power system ,Power system simulation ,Forced outage ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,business ,Reliability (statistics) - Abstract
The integration of the variable renewable energies makes the operation conditions of the power system ever-changeable. Consequently, the power system operational reliability evaluation is increasingly important. This paper introduces the concept of decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) in the operational reliability evaluation. Unlike the exogenous uncertainties, DDU reveals that the decisions of the system operation could significantly affect the resolution of the uncertainties which influence the reliability metrics. In this paper, the proposed DDU modeling method links the device reliability indices, i.e., the forced outage rate, and the operational-decision variables. The impacts of DDU on operational reliability are analyzed based on a reliability-constrained stochastic unit commitment (UC) model. An adaptive reliability improvement UC (ARIUC) algorithm is proposed to efficiently solve the problem. Case studies underline the necessity of considering DDU in power system operational reliability evaluations.
- Published
- 2021
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