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Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

Introduction and Context This chapter discusses the implications of climate change on key economic sectors and services, for example, economic activity. Other chapters discuss impacts from a physical, chemical, biological, or social perspective. Economic impacts cannot be isolated; therefore, there are a large number of cross-references to sections in other chapters of this report. In some cases, particularly agriculture, the discussion of the economic impacts is integrated with the other impacts. Focusing on the potential impact of climate change on economic activity, this chapter addresses questions such as: How does climate change affect the demand for a particular good or service? What is the impact on its supply? How do supply and demand interact in the market? What are the effects on producers and consumers? What is the effect on the overall economy, and on welfare? An inclusive approach was taken, discussing all sectors of the economy. Section SM10.1 found in this chapter’s on-line supplementary material shows the list of sectors according to the International Standard Industrial Classification. This assessment reflects the breadth and depth of the state of knowledge across these sectors; many of which have not been evaluated in the literature. We extensively discuss five sectors: energy (Section 10.2), water (Section 10.3), transport (Section 10.4), tourism (Section 10.6), and insurance (Section 10.7). Other primary and secondary sectors are discussed in Section 10.5, and Section 10.8 is devoted to other service sectors. Food and agriculture is addressed in Chapter 7. Sections 10.2 through 10.8 discuss individual sectors in isolation. Markets are connected, however. Section 10.9 therefore assesses the implications of changes in any one sector on the rest of the economy. It also discusses the effect of the impacts of climate change on economic growth and development. Chapter 19 assesses the impact of climate change on economic welfare-that is, the sum of changes in consumer and producer surplus, including for goods and services not traded within the formal economy.

The relationship between oil and nuclear energy in the global energy scene over the past 50 years is analysed. The former nuclear–oil product competition in power generation and various end-use markets is found to have transformed into a complementary relationship. Current concerns associated with both energy sources and related technologies, including price volatility, supply security, geopolitical sensitivity, depletion alarms, and environmental pollution issues for oil, economic performance, operational safety, proliferation, terrorism, radioactive waste disposal, and the resulting public acceptance for nuclear are examined as determinants of their future roles in the world energy balance. An assessment of the long-term prospects for oil and nuclear energy is presented at the scale of a century to support further economic and energy policy analyses. It is the first in-depth study of global energy projections based on a comparative examination of long-term socio-economic scenarios and their coordinated quantifications by a set of integrated energy–economy models.

Stabilizing the earth’s atmosphere in terms of anthropogenic interference remains the key issue in managing the risk of climate change ten years after signing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What is the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts that constitute ‘dangerous’ interference with the climate system? What is the associated level of greenhousegas concentrations in the atmosphere? What is the desirable timing of emissions control actions considering the multitude of implications that range from the rate of warming and its impacts to the technology dynamics and the resulting mitigation costs. What is the ensuing balance of the required adaptation and mitigation actions and costs in different world regions? In which regions is it most practical to start emissions reductions and which principles and practicalities should guide the burden sharing? Integrated assessment models combining fundamental elements of the global climate and socioeconomic systems have become the principal instruments to explore these questions and to provide insights for climate policy. These were the central objectives of the project on Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies (ICLIPS) as well. The project was implemented by an international consortium of six research centers together with a core team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The main focus of the ICLIPS project was on the long-term dynamics of the interactions between human society and the climate system. The conceptual foundation of the project is the so-called tolerable windows approach, also called the inverse or guardrail approach. It seeks to identify fields of long-term GHG emission paths that will prevent climate change resulting in unacceptable regional or sectoral impacts without instigating intolerable mitigation costs. The limits to unacceptable impacts and costs are normative judgments based on the values and perceptions of social actors and serve as user-specified input to the ICLIPS integrated assessment model. The above questions concerning long-term climate change policies will be high on the policy agenda over the next few years as delegates to the UNFCCC process will be preparing for negotiating emissions reduction agreements for the second commitment period with 2020 as the expected target year. A meaningful contemplation of near-term emissions reduction goals requires the thorough consideration of the possible range of long-term stabilization levels. Which choices remain open and which options get foreclosed in terms of climate change and impacts under

The paper introduces the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) asa decision analytical framework for addressing global climatechange. It is implemented as an integrated assessment model (IAM)developed in the project on Integrated Assessment of ClimateProtection Strategies (ICLIPS). The background and the main objectivesof the project are described and its relationships to other currentintegrated assessment efforts are elucidated. Key features ofthe TWA are compared with those of cost-benefit and cost-effectivenessframeworks. An overview of the ICLIPS IAM framework is providedtogether with its methodological foundations. Main features ofthe individual models are presented, covering the climate, theaggregated economic, and the impact models. Additional componentsof the framework include dynamic mitigation cost functions andan agriculture/land-use model (both incorporated into the fullyintegrated ICLIPS climate-economy model) as well as a globalmulti-region, multi-sector, dynamic general equilibrium model.

A critical issue for policymakers in defining mitigationstrategies for climate change is the availability ofappropriate evaluation tools. The development of climate impactresponse functions (CIRFs) is our reaction to this challenge.CIRFs depict the response of selected climate-sensitive impactsectors across a wide range of plausible futures. They consist ofa limited number of climate-change-related dimensions andsensitivities of sector-specific impact models. The concept ofCIRFs is defined and the procedure to develop them is presented.The use of climate change scenarios derived from various GCMexperiments and the adopted impact assessment models areexplained.The CIRFs presented here consider climate change impacts onnatural vegetation, crop production, and water availability. Theyare part of the ICLIPS integrated assessment framework based onthe tolerable windows approach. CIRFs can be applied both in`forward' and in `inverse' mode. In the latter, they help totranslate thresholds for climate impacts perceived by stakeholders(so-called impact guardrails) into constraints for climatevariables (so-called climate windows). This enables the results ofdetailed impact models to be incorporated into intertemporallyoptimizing integrated assessment models, such as the ICLIPS model.

(2002). Exploring Options for Global Climate Policy. A New Analytical Framework. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development: Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 22-34.

The concept of climate impact response function is introduced and placed into the context of integrated assessment models to analyze policy options under climate change constraints. An example of developing such response functions is presented that entails a global model of potential natural vegetation driven by a climate change pattern derived from a general circulation model. A large array of strenuous issues are introduced that will be addressed by the set of papers included in this Special Issue.

In this paper, we critically review cost‐benefit analysis, cost‐effectiveness analysis and the guard‐rail approach as decision‐support tools for the choice of climate protection strategies. Our main focus is on the central role of value judgments, which arise from the need to value; first, uncertain environmental benefits from climate protection relative to other goods; second, the consumption of the present relative to future generations; and third the consumption of “poor” relative to “rich” people. Each of the three approaches analyzed has its shortcomings. Cost‐benefit analysis requires a complete and transitive preference ordering, which stands in sharp contrast to scientific uncertainties and valuation problems. Cost‐effectiveness analysis suffers from the difficulty of setting an appropriate climate protection target. Finally, the usefulness of the guard‐rail approach for decision‐makers depends on the extent to which it is possible to limit the choice set.

The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.

The central objectives of the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment (EFIEA) include improving the scientific quality of Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA) as well as strengthening the interactions between science and policy making in environmental matters. This paper is intended to provide a concise assessment of the evolution of IEA methods and present it as a background to current thinking on and practice in IEA. Historical roots of IEA concepts and applications are explored. Common elements and distinctive features in recent proposals to define IEA are sorted and a liberal definition is proposed for the purposes of the present methodological study. This definition emphasizes the interdisciplinary character and environmental policy orientation of IEAs. Changes in the nature, social perception, and management of environmental problems are identified as the major factors driving methodological development in IEAs. A simple scheme is proposed to arrange the main elements of IEA: disciplinary tools, integration tools, and assessment frameworks. The role of IEAs in environmental management is examined by adopting the concept of risk management functions. Due to the varying needs for interdisciplinary research and diverging degrees of policy involvement across those functions, the potential contribution of IEAs to activities belonging to different functions also varies. The flexibility and diversity of IEAs are demonstrated by a sampler of frameworks that have been developed to address profoundly different problems and audiences.

Cost assessments of geological disposal of carbon dioxide and radioactive waste are presented. The scope of the cost assessments covers a range of activities from research, site identification, licensing and construction to operation, closure and post-closure monitoring of the disposal sites. The most meaningful indicator for comparison is the disposal cost per unit of electricity produced. The comparative assessment reveals important differences between the two waste products in the volume of material involved and the precautions to be taken that determine the cost per kWh indicator. The timing of investment to establish the disposal site is an important difference with significant cost implications: investments must be completed before starting CO2 capture from fossil power plants whereas investments in radioactive waste repositories can be postponed for decades after the waste emerges from nuclear power reactors. The investment costs are significant and mid-course corrections are expensive; hence, both technologies need stable regulatory systems.

The current status of and prospects for the geological disposal of carbon dioxide (CO2) and radioactive waste (RW) are assessed for Western Europe by focusing on three large countries: Germany, France and the UK. The relative importance of the associated electricity generation technologies (coal-based and nuclear generation) varies across countries but extensive efforts are under way to explore the feasibility of and available capacities for disposing of the resulting waste. Suitable geological formations seem to be available for both CO2 and RW disposal in all three of these countries. The main thrust of the disposal for both waste products is on national solutions despite many research projects coordinated by the European Union, and economic and energy collaboration. Research into RW disposal has a much longer history than CO2 disposal. Yet there are learning opportunities in many areas, ranging from geology and risk assessment to regulation and liability, as well as in public information and participation in decision making, particularly with regard to site selection. Despite well-established (RW) and emerging (CO2) European Union and international standards and regulatory principles, there are marked ­differences in the disposal strategies for CO2 and RW in the three countries.

Fossil fuels will remain the backbone of the global energy economy for the foreseeable future. The contribution of nuclear energy to the global energy supply is also expected to increase. With the pressing need to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the fossil energy industry is exploring the possibility of carbon dioxide disposal in geological media. Geological disposal has been studied for decades by the nuclear industry with a view to ensuring the safe containment of its wastes. Geological disposal of carbon dioxide and that of radioactive waste gives rise to many common concerns in domains ranging from geology to public acceptance. In this respect, comparative assessments reveal many similarities, ranging from the transformation of the geological environment and safety and monitoring concerns to regulatory, liability and public acceptance issues. However, there are profound differences on a broad range of issues as well, such as the quantities and hazardous features of the materials to be disposed of, the characteristics of the targeted geological media, the site engineering technologies involved and the timescales required for safe containment at the disposal location. There are ample opportunities to learn from comparisons and to derive insights that will assist policymakers responsible for national energy strategies and international climate policies.

There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam-Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Increasing concerns about the potential risks involved in anthropogenic climate change over the past ten years have boosted the intensity of research efforts on all aspects of the problem and motivated an integrated analysis of their results. This paper is intended to provide a short overview of modeling approaches to integrated assessments of climate change. It also presents an innovative concept, the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA), as it is adopted in a new research project called Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies (ICLIPS) at PIK. The approach is based on an inverse modeling concept that derives climate stabilization objectives from perceived unacceptable impacts and produces complete sets of permitted emission paths satisfying the corresponding climate change constraints. Initial results show that the approach is a promising new direction in integrated modeling.

Global climate change poses a major challenge for analysts and policy advisors alike. The complexities, uncertainties, and high stakes involved in the problem renders economic analysis particularly controversial. Many analysts maintain that analytical techniques developed over the past few decades and successfully adopted for managing a broad range of environmental issues can also be applied in the case of climate change, after making the changes necessary to accommodate special features of the climate problem. Others paint apocalyptic pictures of possible impacts of climate change on nature and society, and question the applicability of economic approaches altogether.

This chapter is concerned with the water systems in Mauritius. Section 15.2 identifies water management and land use as the most important long-term environmental issues in Mauritius. Section 15.3 provides a brief overview of various components of water systems within Mauritius. The conceptual framework and principles of operation of the surface freshwater model, which includes water supply, water demand, and water balance, are described in Section 15.4. This section is followed by the presentation of the lagoon model in Section 15.5. Finally, Section 15.6 presents the user interfaces of the water models, through a discussion of the principles for scenario construction and the user-specified water-policy variables.

Studying and managing global change presents new challenges for the scientific and policy-making communities, and they require improved forms of communication at the science-policy interface. This often involves cross-cultural transfer of policy games, strategic simulation exercises, and techniques to address long-term, global problems in their policy context. Over the past 2 years, the author was involved in a United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) project looking at the socioeconomic impacts and policy responses resulting from climate change in Southeast Asia, and used the policy exercise (PE) approach to generate local and national scale policy responses to the potential impacts of climate change in Malaysia and Indonesia. The study in general, and the activities related to the PEs in particular, provided valuable insights into the perception of the global problems, attitude towards long-term issues, environmental risk perception, and the management of uncertainties. The second group of lessons is associated with the cross-cultural transfer of a strategic gaming exercise rooted primarily in the North American and European cultures (war games, operational games, structured workshops) to the Southeast Asian cultures. Dramatic cultural differences have been revealed in the preparation phase and at the PE workshops in the formality/informality of procedures, in the styles of debating, criticizing and challenging each other’s ideas, and in the issues related to authority and the hierarchy of people and institutions.

Objectives and content of the journal special issue on 'Prospects for nuclear energy in the 21st century' are introduced. It is concluded that the main reasons for considering nuclear power in the national energy portfolios include hedging against supply security risks and high fossil energy prices in most countries, complemented by climate change mitigation in developed countries and by local and regional air pollution reduction in developing countries. Concerns over nuclear power include operation safety, nuclear weapon proliferation, economic performance, nuclear waste disposal and public acceptance. The relative importance of these factors diverges widely across regions and countries.

The projections of energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) serve as point of departure for an assessment of plausible ranges of CO2 emissions that could be avoided through CO2 capture and storage measures. Scenario and time dependent, sector and fuel specific capture factors are developed for eleven world regions to estimate the proportion of CO2 resulting from fossil fuel and biomass combustion/conversion that might be practical to capture and store. The capture factors are applied to the original CO2 emissions scenarios at a highly disaggregated level. The results are summed up and presented. The results indicate that it might be possible to capture and store a significant quantity of energy related CO2, especially in the second quarter of this century. Yet the amounts of CO2 still being emitted remain considerable, suggesting that other technologies will also be needed if the threat of climate change requires large reductions of CO2 emissions over the next few decades.