1. Development of imaging-based risk scores for prediction of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients taking antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies
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Henry Ma, Eleni Sakka, Hugues Chabriat, Duncan Wilson, Appu Suman, Peter J. Kelly, SL Ho, Charlotte Zerna, Eric Jouvent, Lawrence K.S. Wong, Anthea Parry, Frances Harrington, Jan Stam, Christopher Patterson, Rustam Al-Shahi Salman, Shigeru Inamura, Krishna A Dani, Henry Houlden, Sebastian Thilemann, Kotaro Iida, Chao Xu, Eunbin Ko, Daniel Guisado-Alonso, Urs Fischer, Caroline E. Lovelock, Man Yu Tse, Wing Chi Fong, Azlisham Mohd Nor, Clare Shakeshaft, Philippe Maeder, Henrik Gensicke, Stefan T. Engelter, James Okwera, Christopher Chen, Dulka Manawadu, John F. Corrigan, Efrat Kliper, Shelagh B. Coutts, Alexander P. Leff, Kam Tat Leung, Chathuri Yatawara, Leopold Hertzberger, M. Eline Kooi, Kazuhisa Yoshifuji, Hing Lung Ip, Keon-Joo Lee, Sanjeevikumar Meenakishundaram, Hiroyuki Irie, Marc Randall, Hatice Ozkan, Hideo Hara, Jill Abrigo, Raquel Delgado-Mederos, Shaloo Singhal, Enrico Flossmann, Beatriz Gómez-Ansón, Paul O'Mahony, Carmen Barbato, Ahamad Hassan, Francesca M Chappell, Harald Proschel, Vincent Mok, Masashi Nishihara, Lakshmanan Sekaran, Derya Selcuk Demirelli, Chu Peng Hoi, Hakan Ay, Joan Martí-Fàbregas, Rebeca Marín, Anne Cristine Guevarra, Martin Cooper, Einor Ben Assayag, Anne-Marie Mendyk, Christine Roffe, Myung Suk Jang, Maarten van Gemert, Hannah Cohen, Jae-Sung Lim, YK Wong, Bonnie Y.K. Lam, Janet Putterill, Wouter Schoonewille, Nick S. Ward, Nikola Sprigg, Kui Kai Lau, Bernard Esisi, Peter M. Rothwell, Henk Verbiest, Kirsty Harkness, Elisa Merino, Gareth Ambler, Arumug Nallasivam, Nigel Smyth, Paul A. Armitage, Heinrich Mattle, Pol Camps-Renom, Martin M. Brown, David Cohen, Min Lou, Pankaj Sharma, Sarah Gunkel, Elles Douven, Andreas Charidimou, Djamil Vahidassr, Cathy Soufan, Alexandros A Polymeris, Michael G. Hennerici, Chris Moran, Rachel Marsh, Mahmud Sajid, Kyohei Fujita, David J. Werring, Joanna M. Wardlaw, Derek Hayden, Joseph Kwan, Timothy J. England, Jaap van der Sande, Luis Prats-Sánchez, Paul Guyler, Ryan Hoi Kit Cheung, Koon-Ho Chan, Frank-Erik de Leeuw, Simone Browning, Jon Scott, Adrian Barry, Alejandro Martínez-Domeño, Luc Bracoub, Dinesh Chadha, Ijaz Anwar, Deborah Kelly, Moon-Ku Han, Anil M. Tuladhar, Thomas Gattringer, Fiona Carty, Abduelbaset Elmarim, Syed Mansoor, Enrico Flossman, Dilek Necioglu Orken, Jane Sword, Velandai Srikanth, Ping Wing Ng, Thomas W. Leung, Richard Shek-kwan Chang, Hans Rolf Jäger, Marwan El-Koussy, Jeroen Hendrikse, Khaled Darawil, Kazunori Toyoda, Mathuri Prabhakaran, Karim Mahawish, Ethem Murat Arsava, Jihoon Kang, Kwok Kui Wong, Michael Power, Felix Fluri, Enas Lawrence, Maam Mamun, Sissi Ispoglou, Mathew Burn, Siu Hung Li, Henry K.F. Mak, Kaori Miwa, Els De Schryver, Franz Fazekas, Jonathan G. Best, Louise Shaw, Hen Hallevi, Keith W. Muir, Ilse Burger, Adrian Wong, Nils Peters, Susana Muñoz-Maniega, Yusuke Yakushiji, David Calvet, Mark White, Michael McCormick, Vinodh Krishnamurthy, David Hargroves, Jan C. Purrucker, Tae Jin Song, Masayuki Shiozawa, Noortje A.M. Maaijwee, Prasanna Aghoram, Nicolas Christ, Lino Ramos, Yannie Soo, Thanh G. Phan, Parashkev Nachev, David J. Seiffge, Kim Wiegertjes, Leo H. Bonati, Chahin Pachai, Oi Ling Chan, Yvo B.W.E.M. Roos, Santiago Medrano-Martorell, Natan M. Bornstein, Elizabeth A. Warburton, Richard Li, Prabel Datta, Pascal P. Gratz, Edmund Ka Ming Wong, Hedley C. A. Emsley, Marie-Yvonne Douste-Blazy, Gunaratam Gunathilagan, Nagaendran Kandiah, Masatoshi Koga, Roland Veltkamp, Lee-Anne Slater, Suk Fung Tsang, Beom Joon Kim, Simon Jung, Zeynep Tanriverdi, Sarah Caine, Peter J. Koudstaal, Laurence Legrand, Kari Saastamoinen, Ale Algra, Jean-Louis Mas, Christine Delmaire, Fidel Nuñez, Robert J. van Oostenbrugge, Sebastian Eppinger, Lillian Choy, Robert Luder, Vincent I.H. Kwa, Aad van der Lugt, Marie Dominique Fratacci, Stephen Makin, Layan Akijian, Régis Bordet, Mi Hwa Yang, Ying Zhou, Elio Giallombardo, Adrian R Parry-Jones, John S. Thornton, Amos D. Korczyn, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, David J. Williams, Aravindakshan Manoj, Julie Staals, Solveig Horstmann, Dianne H.K. van Dam-Nolen, Claire Cullen, Benjamin Wagner, Jun Tanaka, Martin Dennis, Stef Bakker, Gregory Y.H. Lip, L. Jaap Kappelle, Robin Lemmens, Achim Gass, David Mangion, Matthew Smith, Toshio Imaizumi, Wenyan Liu, Jeremy Molad, Christopher Price, Paul J. Nederkoorn, P. J. A. M. Brouwers, Vincent Thijs, Sze Ho Ma, Mark Schembri, Peter Wilkinson, Janice E. O’Connell, Karen Ma, John Ly, Leonidas Panos, Chung Yan Chan, Toshihiro Ide, Christopher Traenka, Joost Jöbsis, Gargi Banerjee, Paul Berntsen, Michael J. Thrippleton, Raymond T.F. Cheung, Christopher Karayiannis, Werner H. Mess, Robert Simister, Jayesh Modi Medanta, Syuhei Ikeda, John Mitchell, Linxin Li, Mauro S.B. Silva, Eric Vicaut, John Coyle, Shoichiro Sato, Michelle Davis, Jonathan Birns, Richard J. Perry, Sean M. Murphy, KC Teo, Maria del C. Valdés Hernández, Bibek Gyanwali, Tarek A. Yousry, Kath Pasco, Sebastian Köhler, Joachim Fladt, Edward S. Hui, Philippe Lyrer, Young Dae Kim, Anna K. Heye, Eric E. Smith, Saima Hilal, Ender Uysal, Ji Hoe Heo, Ysoline Beigneux, Cisca Linn, Hee-Joon Bae, Simon Leach, Winnie C.W. Chu, Ronil V. Chandra, Neurology, ACS - Atherosclerosis & ischemic syndromes, ANS - Neurovascular Disorders, MUMC+: HZC Med Staf Spec Klinische Neurofys (9), RS: Carim - B06 Imaging, MUMC+: HZC Klinische Neurofysiologie (5), Klinische Neurowetenschappen, Psychiatrie & Neuropsychologie, RS: MHeNs - R1 - Cognitive Neuropsychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience, MUMC+: MA Neurologie (3), RS: Carim - B05 Cerebral small vessel disease, MUMC+: Hersen en Zenuw Centrum (3), MUMC+: MA Med Staf Spec Neurologie (9), RS: NUTRIM - R1 - Obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular health, Beeldvorming, and MUMC+: DA BV Klinisch Fysicus (9)
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Adult ,Male ,Risk ,EXTERNAL VALIDATION ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Neurology ,MODELS ,Clinical Neurology ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Fibrinolytic Agents ,Recurrence ,Internal medicine ,Antithrombotic ,Humans ,Medicine ,Prospective cohort study ,610 Medicine & health ,Stroke ,METAANALYSIS ,Aged ,Ischemic Stroke ,Science & Technology ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,business.industry ,Proportional hazards model ,Magnetic resonance imaging ,Middle Aged ,Disorders of movement Donders Center for Medical Neuroscience [Radboudumc 3] ,medicine.disease ,Magnetic Resonance Imaging ,Ischemic Attack, Transient ,ATRIAL-FIBRILLATION ,Cardiology ,Female ,Neurology (clinical) ,Neurosciences & Neurology ,business ,Intracranial Hemorrhages ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Fibrinolytic agent ,Cohort study - Abstract
Contains fulltext : 235277.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. INTERPRETATION: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.
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- 2021
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