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ObjectiveThe impact of a screening programme on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its target population depends on several variables, including coverage with invitations, participation rate, positivity rate of the screening test, compliance with an invitation to second-level assessment and endoscopists’ sensitivity. We propose a synthetic indicator that may account for all the variables influencing the potential impact of a screening programme on CRC incidence.DesignWe defined the ‘rate of advanced adenoma on the target population’ (AA-TAP) as the rate of patients who received a diagnosis of advanced adenoma within a screening programme, divided by the programme target population. We computed the AA-TAP for the CRC Italian screening programmes (biennial faecal immunochemical test, target population 50–69 year olds) using the data of the Italian National Survey from 2003 to 2016, overall and by region, and assessed the association between AA-TAP and CRC incidence fitting a linear regression between the trend of regional CRC incidence rates in 50–74 year old subjects and the cumulative AA-TAP.ResultsIn 2016, the AA-TAP at a national level was 105×100 000, whereas significant differences were observed between the northern and central regions (respectively 126 and 149×100 000) and the South and Islands (36×100 000). The cumulative AA-TAP from 2004 to 2012 was significantly correlated with the difference between CRC incidence rates in 2013–2014 and those in 2003–2004 (p=0.009).ConclusionThe AA-TAP summarises into a single indicator the potential impact of a screening programme in reducing CRC incidence rates.

Highlights • Research question: how cancer impacts on LE changes during patients’ entire life • LE increased in patients surviving the first years and decreasing thereafter. • Patients’ LE in the end approached but seldom reached the general population’s LE. • This method describes when cancer survivors’ excess risk of death became negligible. • Life expectancy indicator is easy to be understood and interpreted by patients., Graphical abstract, The aims of this study were to provide life expectancy (LE) estimates of cancer patients at diagnosis and LE changes over time since diagnosis to describe the impact of cancer during patients' entire lives. Cancer patients' LE was calculated by standard period life table methodology using the relative survival of Italian patients diagnosed in population-based cancer registries in 1985–2011 with follow-up to 2013. Data were smoothed using a polynomial model and years of life lost (YLL) were calculated as the difference between patients' LE and that of the age- and sex-matched general population. The YLL at diagnosis was highest at the youngest age at diagnosis, steadily decreasing thereafter. For patients diagnosed at age 45 years, the YLL was above 20 for lung and ovarian cancers and below 6 for thyroid cancer in women and melanoma in men. LE progressively increased in patients surviving the first years, decreasing thereafter, to approach that of the general population. YLL in the long run mainly depends on attained age. Providing quantitative data is essential to better define clinical follow-up and plan health care resource allocation. These results help assess when the excess risk of death from tumour becomes negligible in cancer survivors.

Objective The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) declines among subjects aged 50 years and above. An opposite trend appears among younger adults. In Europe, data on CRC incidence among younger adults are lacking. We therefore aimed to analyse European trends in CRC incidence and mortality in subjects younger than 50 years. Design Data on age-related CRC incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2016 were retrieved from national and regional cancer registries. Trends were analysed by Joinpoint regression and expressed as annual percent change. Results We retrieved data on 143.7 million people aged 20–49 years from 20 European countries. Of them, 187 918 (0.13%) were diagnosed with CRC. On average, CRC incidence increased with 7.9% per year among subjects aged 20–29 years from 2004 to 2016. The increase in the age group of 30–39 years was 4.9% per year from 2005 to 2016, the increase in the age group of 40–49 years was 1.6% per year from 2004 to 2016. This increase started earliest in subjects aged 20–29 years, and 10–20 years later in those aged 30–39 and 40–49 years. This is consistent with an age-cohort phenomenon. Although in most European countries the CRC incidence had risen, some heterogeneity was found between countries. CRC mortality did not significantly change among the youngest adults, but decreased with 1.1%per year between 1990 and 2016 and 2.4% per year between 1990 and 2009 among those aged 30–39 years and 40–49 years, respectively. Conclusion CRC incidence rises among young adults in Europe. The cause for this trend needs to be elucidated. Clinicians should be aware of this trend. If the trend continues, screening guidelines may need to be reconsidered.

Background: Evidence about late effects in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors is scarce. This study assessed the risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) to identify the most common SMNs to be considered in follow-up care. Methods: Population-based cancer registries retrospectively identified first primary tumors (between 1976 and 2013) and SMNs in AYAs (15-39years old at their cancer diagnosis). AYA cancer survivors were those alive at least 5years after their first cancer diagnosis. The excess risk of SMNs was measured as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risk together with the cumulative incidence of SMNs. Results: The cohort included 67,692 AYA cancer survivors. The excess risk of developing any SMN (SIR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-1.7) was 60%. The excess risk of SMNs was significantly high for survivors of lymphomas; cancers of the breast, thyroid, female genital tract, digestive organs, gonads, and urinary tract; and melanomas. The cumulative incidence of all SMNs in AYA cancer survivors within 25years of their first cancer diagnosis was approximately 10%. Subsequent tumors contributing to approximately 60% of all SMNs were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer in females and colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and lymphomas in males. Conclusions: These results highlight the need to personalize follow-up strategies for AYA cancer survivors.

Background The number of patients living after a cancer diagnosis is increasing, especially after thyroid cancer (TC). This study aims at evaluating both the risk of a second primary cancer (SPC) in TC patients and the risk of TC as a SPC. Methods We analyzed two population‐based cohorts of individuals with TC or other neoplasms diagnosed between 1998 and 2012, in 28 Italian areas covered by population‐based cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of SPC were stratified by sex, age, and time since first cancer. Results A total of 38,535 TC patients and 1,329,624 patients with other primary cancers were included. The overall SIR was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.12–1.21) for SPC in TC patients, though no increase was shown for people with follicular (1.06) and medullary (0.95) TC. SPC with significantly increased SIRs was bone/soft tissue (2.0), breast (1.2), prostate (1.4), kidney (2.2), and hemolymphopoietic (1.4) cancers. The overall SIR for TC as a SPC was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.42–1.55), similar for all TC subtypes, and it was significantly increased for people diagnosed with head and neck (2.1), colon–rectum (1.4), lung (1.8), melanoma (2.0), bone/soft tissue (2.8), breast (1.3), corpus uteri (1.4), prostate (1.5), kidney (3.2), central nervous system (2.3), and hemolymphopoietic (1.8) cancers. Conclusions The increased risk of TC after many other neoplasms and of few SPC after TC questions the best way to follow‐up cancer patients, avoiding overdiagnosis and overtreatment for TC and, possibly, for other malignancies., This is the first study able to calculate population‐based risk of thyroid cancers as a first or second tumor separately for different thyroid cancer histological types (i.e., follicular, medullary, and poorly differentiated). In a context of a large proportion of thyroid cancer cases due to overdiagnosis, the findings of the present study may help to more focused primary prevention and surveillance for side effects of treatments, thus avoiding overtreatment, particularly among younger women.

Objective: To evaluate short-term (2003–2014) cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy. Methods: Italian Cancer Registries data, available in the AIRTUM database, from 17 out of 20 regions were used. The number of incident cases and deaths were estimated for those registries and those years with incomplete information. Age-standardized rates, overall and stratified by geographic area, region, sex, cancer site, and major age group, were computed. Time trends were expressed as annual percent change of rates. Results: In Italy, among males, incidence rates for all cancers showed during 2003–2014, a significant decrease (−0.9%/year), with stronger reductions in the northwest (−1.3%/year) and northeast (−2.0%/year since 2006) than in central (−0.7%/year) and southern (−0.4%/year) areas. Among females, a weak but significant overall reduction was detected (−0.1%/year), with a stronger decrease in the northwest (−0.5%/year). Incidence increased among women in the south (0.3%/year) of Italy. Mortality decreased in both sexes (−1.0%/year among males and −0.5%/year among females), but not in the south, where rates had a stable tendency. Conclusions: Incidence among males decreased, supported by trends for prostate, lung, colorectal, and urinary bladder cancers; among females the. The overall cancer incidence trend was stable, or even decreasing, in the northern and central areas and increasing in the southern areas, due to lung, thyroid, and melanoma rising trends. Study results provided information on the outcomes, in terms of cancer incidence and mortality, of primary and secondary prevention measures employed by regional health systems.

Objective: To evaluate the trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates from 2003 to 2014 in Italy by age groups and regions. Methods: We used the data of 48 cancer registries from 17 Italian regions to estimate standardized incidence and mortality rates overall and by sex, age groups (Results: Incidence rates decreased from 104.3 (2003) to 89.9 × 100,000 (2014) in men and from 64.3 to 58.4 × 100,000 in women. Among men, incidence decreased during 2007–2010 (APC −4.0, 95% CI −6.0 to −1.9) and 2010–2014 (APC −0.7, 95% CI −1.4 to 0.0), while in women it linearly decreased during the whole period (APC −1.1, 95% CI −1.4 to −0.8). Mortality rates showed a linear reduction both in men (APC −0.7, 95% CI −1.0 to −0.3) and women (APC −0.9, 95% CI −1.2 to −0.6) and decreased respectively from 41.1 to 39.2 × 100,000 and from 24.6 to 23.1 × 100,000. In the 50- to 69-year-old range (screening target age), incidence showed a prescreening increase, followed by a peak after screening started, and a decline thereafter. Incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased in all areas but in the south and islands, where incidence increased and mortality remained stable. Conclusions: A renewed commitment by all regional health systems to invest in primary (i.e., lifestyle) and secondary (i.e., screening programs) prevention is of utmost importance.