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There is an urgent need to develop strategic spatial planning methods adapted to the conditions of countries with weak planning systems facing rapid urbanization. These methods should allow evaluating the territorial qualities of the system of cities and to meaningfully guiding the implementation of national urban policies or strategies. In this context, the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UNHabitat) has developed the Spatial Development Framework (SDF) method, which is presented here for the first time, after having been tested in different countries. The SDF method helps to develop an understanding of the roles and inter-linkages of various urban settlements in the territory and to frame the territorial structure in a context of fluidity and uncertainty typical of countries facing uncontrolled urbanization. The method is then discussed and conclusions for the way forward are drawn.

Since 2005, Egypt has a new land-use development policy to control unplanned human settlement growth and prevent outlying growth. This study assesses the impact of this policy shift on settlement growth in Assiut Governorate, Egypt, between 1999 and 2020. With symbolic machine learning, we extract built-up areas from Landsat images of 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 and a Landscape Expansion Index with a new QGIS plugin tool (Growth Classifier) developed to classify settlement growth types. The base year, 1999, was produced by the national remote sensing agency. After extracting the built-up areas from the Landsat images, eight settlement growth types (infill, expansion, edge-ribbon, linear branch, isolated cluster, proximate cluster, isolated scattered, and proximate scattered) were identified for four periods (1999:2005, 2005:2010, 2010:2015, and 2015:2020). The results show that prior to the policy shift of 2005, the growth rate for 1999–2005 was 11% p.a. In all subsequent periods, the growth rate exceeded the target rate of 1% p.a., though by varying amounts. The observed settlement growth rates were 5% (2005:2010), 7.4% (2010:2015), and 5.3% (2015:2020). Although the settlements in Assiut grew primarily through expansion and infill, with the latter growing in importance during the last two later periods, outlying growth is also evident. Using four class metrics (number of patches, patch density, mean patch area, and largest patch index) for the eight growth types, all types showed a fluctuated trend between all periods, except for expansion, which always tends to increase. To date, the policy to control human settlement expansion and outlying growth has been unsuccessful.

The use of check-dams in mountain environments to regulate fluxes of water and sediments is widely applied across Mediterranean mountains. Besides the use of “grey infrastructures” such as check-dams, other restoration and hydrological control measures rely more on the use of “green infrastructures” or “nature-based solutions” (e.g. reforestation, buffer lines) or a combination of both types of measures. It is widely accepted that both are complementary, and that prioritization should be based on economic, ecological and cultural criteria. This paper brings together all the knowledge generated during more than one decade concerning the impact of land use changes, reforestation, and hydrological control works on several ecosystem services in a representative Mediterranean catchment. The work evaluates different management scenarios aiming to optimize provision of ecosystem services in the area. The study area is a medium-sized catchment (∼300 km2) in Southeast Spain, representative of Mediterranean mountains that experienced agricultural land abandonment, greening up, and restoration works in the second half of the twentieth century. The methods combined: (i) previous research results for the area that were organized in an ecosystem services framework, providing data for three representative scenarios of catchment management; (ii) the use of value content analysis of the existing management plans for the area to understand the view of the managers; and (iii) a multicriteria analysis of the management scenarios to determine the most sustainable scenario to optimize different ecosystem services. The results of the evaluation were later validated with the stakeholders (technicians and managers involved in the management plans) through interviews. Our results show that solutions that respect landscape and ecological dynamics are more sustainable and cheaper in the medium and long term than scenarios based on “grey infrastructures”, although the latter could have more desirable short-term impacts. The value analysis reflects how there are some concepts, such as ecosystem services, that could easily be further incorporated into several management plans. When choosing a management scenario, this needs to be adapted to the local environmental conditions and to the specific objectives of the restoration works. Tailor-made management scenarios taking into account two factors (local conditions and specific management objectives) can optimize resources and achieve medium to long-term sustainability.

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Uncertainty in forest planning is a prevailing problem affecting decision-making processes, especially those relating to climate change adaptation. Limited knowledge about uncertainty has prompted this empirical investigation of forest planners' understanding of uncertainty related to its recognition, its management and risk perception. We used a comprehensive uncertainty framework to address and test these uncertainties, with data from an online survey, to identify the views of 33 forest planners through Britain. Responses were analysed using non-parametric tests. The results showed that planners have significantly different views on uncertainty among economic, social and climatic categories. Uncertainty in the climatic category was more acutely perceived than in the economic and social categories. Planners preferred to practice active uncertainty management, as the results suggest they feel more able to manage uncertainty in forest models and their outcomes. Forest planners also indicated diverse perceptions of salient risks of change over the next 30 years. The results show they may take action only to pests, drought and wind risks posing a threat to forests even though they perceived these risks potentially to be highly regulated and controlled by forestry policies. The findings provide a better understanding of uncertainty as a source of inertia to climate change adaptation in forestry, identify new research objectives and support the development of forestry policies for climate change adaptation.

In order to share information on the development and use of forest management decision support systems (FMDSS), a European-initiated network has established a wiki website as part of its activities. Case studies and associated lessons learned were solicited from the network using semantic structures built on the wiki. A total of 31 cases from 10 different countries and 80 associated lessons were entered into the wiki. The resulting lessons were categorized (non-exclusively) using four major themes: (1) decision support system architecture and design (40 lessons), (2) methods and models (26), (3) knowledge management processes (34) and (4) participatory processes (32). The semantic wiki proved useful for gathering case information and relating it to other information objects, such as FMDSS software descriptions; however, it was not as well suited to the task of analysis and synthesis as commercial qualitative analysis software packages. Future development possibilities for the semantic structures are suggested, and more cases are solicited from the FMDSS community.

Ontology-based information publishing, retrieval, reuse, and integration have become popular research topics to address the challenges involved in exchanging data between heterogeneous sources. However, in most cases ontologies are still developed in a centralized top-down manner by a few knowledge engineers. Consequently, the role that developers play in conceptualizing a domain such as the geosciences is disproportional compared with the role of domain experts and especially potential end-users. These and other drawbacks have stimulated the creation of new methodologies focusing around collaboration. Based on a review of existing approaches, this article presents a two-step methodology and implementation to foster collaborative ontology engineering in the geosciences. Our approach consists of the development of a minimalistic core ontology acting as a catalyst and the creation of a virtual collaborative development cycle. Both methodology and prototypical implementation have been tested in the context of the EU-funded ForeStClim project which addresses environmental protection with respect to forests and climate change.

Using county-level employment data, we analyse how the spatial concentration of jobs has changed in China's Pearl River Delta (PRD) between 1990 and 2005. Despite unique Chinese policies that exhibit strong influence on the economic landscape, we detect key parallels with the patterns found in classic theories and empirical studies in Western contexts. Total employment has become increasingly concentrated. This aggregate picture hides important sectoral variations though: manufacturing employment has spread out to suburban areas; producer service jobs have increasingly concentrated in metropolitan centres; and consumer and public services have clustered in areas with high aggregate population. We argue that the major forces that are shaping the economic landscape in PRD are the market institutions and development path-dependency. Under the circumstances of an increasingly liberalised market and decentralised government, policy now may function as a dynamic tool to magnify local spatial-economic and historical advantages and to balance uneven regional development.

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

Use of decision support systems (DSS) has thus far been framed as a social process of adoption or technical process of usability. We analyze the development of a DSS as a process of institutionalization of new as well as drift of existing practices. We write an Actor-Network-Theory (ANT) account, i.e. an interpretive study, that follows the traces left by both human and non-human actors (e.g. technology, methodologies, etc.) to understand how a DSS development project institutionalizes DSS technology in several forest management organizations in the German state of Rheinland Pfalz. The research has an innovative value since it uses ANT in the design of a DSS, hence affecting it, while commonly ANT has been used to understand why networks work or do not. Moreover, we use a new technology (PREZITM, www.prezi.com) for the visualization of the whole actor network coherent to the ANT methodology, i.e. “keeping the social flat.” As a result, the development of the ANT account proposed in the present paper, even if still partial, supports the design of new technologies being introduced in current practice and generates an important learning effect thanks to the underpinning interpretative approach

Spatial data availability on internet or intranet rapidly increases. Laymen use this data through applications such as Google Maps, Google Earth and Virtual Earth. Relatively new standards allow interoperable use for publication, sharing and calculation of spatial data. We discuss the opportunities that new spatial and multi-criteria decision analysis web service technologies and standards offer in combination with technology to distribute computing and analysis. We report of the architecture and the first prototype of the open source Distributed Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (D-SMCE) web application. It is extensible by using OSGi technology for modularity and different web-services from spatial domains, such as OGC web mapping, web feature and web processing services, and non-spatial domains, such as Decision Deck. Distributed SMCE is a framework and an application. The theoretical context shows how spatial planning and decision support systems can be understood to evolve, to relate practice of distributed evaluation with standards of D-SMCE.

The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of 'dynamic adaptive policy pathways' for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on the National Forest Estate in Scotland for the next 80 years using probabilistic climate change data from the UKCP09 weather generator. Findings showed that drought would have an overall long-term negative impact on the provision of three services with a decrease up to 41%, whereas climate change has a positive impact on tourism potential with up to five times higher frequency of good climate conditions during summer months. Furthermore, the results highlighted when forestry actions, mainly in the lowlands, will reach their environmental limits during the next 80 years. Our findings reduce knowledge uncertainty and highlight when and where adaptation should be implemented to ensure the provision of future forest ecosystem services in Scotland.

Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientsts in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeing future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism developmnt. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic infrmation systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generate spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Processing – Multi Criteria Evaluation (AHP-MCE) are discussed. Most of these methods are data driven methods and can be used to elicit the transition potential rules in the urban CA models. In the following, three possible rule elicitation methods: Interview, Document analysis, and Card sorting are explained and demonstrated. These three methods are driven by knowledge and can be used to elicit conflict resolution rules as well as transition potential

Information helps decision makers to address and to decide about environmental problems. In the context of climate change adaptation, often knowledge is missing on how the available information from impact models affects the decision-making process. The main aim of this study was to explore the extent of ambiguity and how new climate change information influenced decision of forest planners. We investigated changes in decisions of planners about forestry actions representing species choice and forest tourism and expiry dates of these actions leading to environmental constraints in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest planners evaluated expiry dates using four forest ecosystem services: forest production, stand yield class, sequestered carbon, and potential tourism. Data were collected during workshops with eleven forest planners from three forest districts in Scotland. Presented climate change information modified the understanding and frames of planners about forestry actions assessed with accompanying expiry dates. Changes in the frames of planners often result in both earlier and later expiry dates. Ambiguity of planners was found to be dependent on diversity in frames and difficulty in evaluating multiple ecosystem services. These findings imply that due to ambiguity forest planners might find it hard to choose climate change adaptation measures and researchers can struggle to convince planners with new research findings.

What are the areas in a catchment where soil conservation practices can be most effectively implemented? To be able to answer that question, erosion rates and farm profitability from different land uses need to be optimized according to physical economic and social constraints, which differ for the interest groups in and outside a catchment. The Interdisciplinary Tool for Optimizing Productivity and Erosion (ITOPE), a conceptual model at this point, offers the opportunity for hydrologists, economists and anthropologists to integrate their knowledge about the erosion problem. It optimizes farm profitability and soil loss and quantifies the economic impact of soil conservation measures for subcatchments, given physical, social and economic constraints, by linking a hydrologic model, a multiple criteria optimization model and an expert system. It should serve as a tool for regional planners, which ensures that social and economic boundary conditions for each of the interest groups in a watershed are considered. It should also serve as a negotiation tool for groups inside and outside the watershed, to allocate the costs and benefits of soil conservation. The development of the conceptual model has led to the observation of interdisciplinary methodological opportunities.