1. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Emergency Adult Surgical Patients and Surgical Services
- Author
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Abiodun Idowu Okunlola, Edward J Caruana, Efstratia Baili, Michael Elliott, Adham Mousa, Alexandros Charalabopoulos, Bert Dhondt, Tahir Khaleeq, Jonathan Clarke, Yi Chuen Tan, Guy Martin, Simon Rabinowicz, Viknesh Sounderajah, Avinash Aujayeb, Dimitrios K. Manatakis, Sami Abd Elwahab, Ahmed Y Azzam, Nikhil Ponugoti, Elise Maria Meima - van Praag, Conor Toale, James Kinross, Surgery, Graduate School, Digital Surgery Limited, and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding
- Subjects
Male ,adult surgical patients ,surgical staff ,ITU ,Global Health ,surgical service restructuring ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,Medicine ,Hospital Mortality ,emergency surgery ,humans ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,adult ,COVID-19 test ,risk assessment ,PANSURG-PREDICT Collaborative ,operating room ,international ,Cohort ,Emergency Service, Hospital ,clinical frailty ,Cohort study ,peak of pandemic ,medicine.medical_specialty ,redeployment ,critical care bed ,Staffing ,Subgroup analysis ,RT-PCR test ,emergency general surgery ,SARS-CoV-2 test ,pre-operative ,pre-operative risk assessment ,HDU ,critical care capacity ,surge period ,survey ,Aged ,observational cohort study ,CCU ,computed tomography ,prospective ,mortality ,critical care ,acute surgery ,acute surgical presentation ,analytical survey ,Charlson Comorbidity Index ,Chest radiograph ,Clinical Frailty Scale ,comorbidity ,coronavirus ,COVID-19 ,COVID-19 prevalence ,COVID-19 surge ,COVID-19 test on admission ,frailty ,high dependency care ,high dependency care bed ,ICU ,in-hospital mortality ,intensive care ,intensive care bed ,intensive care capacity ,intensive therapy ,length of stay ,longitudinal ,medical management ,multi-center ,multi-centre ,multi-national ,multinational ,nasopharyngeal swab ,operating theatre ,operating theatre repurposing ,pandemic ,patient risk assessment ,peri-operative ,pre-operative COVID-19 test ,retrospective ,SARS-CoV-2 ,surgery ,surgical intervention ,surgical procedure ,surgical service disruption ,surgical staff redeployment ,General Surgery ,Concomitant ,Surgery ,Emergencies ,Pandemic ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Middle Aged ,Female ,MEDLINE ,Risk management tools ,NO ,Pandemics ,business.industry ,Emergency medicine ,business ,Follow-Up Studies - Abstract
Objectives: The PREDICT study aimed to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected surgical services and surgical patients and to identify predictors of outcomes in this cohort. Background: High mortality rates were reported for surgical patients with COVID- 19 in the early stages of the pandemic. However, the indirect impact of the pandemic on this cohort is not understood, and risk predictors are yet to be identified. Methods: PREDICT is an international longitudinal cohort study comprising surgical patients presenting to hospital between March and August 2020. conducted alongside a survey of staff redeployment and departmental restructuring. A subgroup analysis of 3176 adult emergency patients, recruited by 55 teams across 18 countries is presented. Results: Among adult emergency surgical patients, all-cause in-hospital mortality (IHM) was 3.6%, compared to 15.5% for those with COVID-19. However, only 14.1% received a COVID-19 test on admission in March, increasing to 76.5% by July. Higher Clinical Frailty Scale scores (CFS >7 aOR 18 87). ASA grade above 2 (aOR 4.29), and COVID-19 infection (aOR 5.12) were independently associated with significantly increased IHM. The peak months of the first wave were independently associated with significantly higher IHM (March aOR 4.34; April aOR 4.25; May aOR 3.97), compared to non-peak months. During the study, UK operating theatre capacity decreased by a mean of 63.6% with a concomitant 27.3% reduction in surgical staffing. Conclusion: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted surgical patients, both directly through co-morbid infection and indirectly as shown by increasing mortality in peak months, irrespective of COVID-19 status. Higher CFS scores and ASA grades strongly predict outcomes in surgical patients and are an important risk assessment tool during the pandemic.
- Published
- 2021
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