1. A low-complexity non-intrusive approach to predict the energy demand of buildings over short-term horizons
- Author
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David E. Culler, Filippos Christianos, Marco Pritoni, Konstantinos Mykoniatis, Orestis P. Panagopoulos, Michail Katsigiannis, Therese Peffer, Nicholas R. Jennings, Georgios Chalkiadakis, Timothy Lipman, and Athanasios Aris Panagopoulos
- Subjects
Energy demand ,Smart buildings ,Computer science ,Energy management ,business.industry ,020209 energy ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Building and Construction ,Energy consumption ,Engineering Design ,Reliability engineering ,Term (time) ,Low complexity ,Affordable and Clean Energy ,Component (UML) ,021105 building & construction ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Building ,business ,Forecasting ,Building automation - Abstract
Summarization: Reliable, non-intrusive, short-term (of up to 12 h ahead) prediction of a building's energy demand is a critical component of intelligent energy management applications. A number of such approaches have been proposed over time, utilizing various statistical and, more recently, machine learning techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and support vector machines. Importantly, all of these works barely outperform simple seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average models, while their complexity is significantly higher. In this work, we propose a novel low-complexity non-intrusive approach that improves the predictive accuracy of the state-of-the-art by up to ∼10%. The backbone of our approach is a K-nearest neighbours search method, that exploits the demand pattern of the most similar historical days, and incorporates appropriate time-series pre-processing and easing. In the context of this work, we evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art methods and provide insights on their performance. Presented on: Advances in Building Energy Research
- Published
- 2020