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This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4(50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case.

China has been through a rapid development process of expanding tertiary industries and urbanization. Due to the aggressive expansion of service building space, energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the service sector are increasing significantly. In this study, we concentrate on China’s service sector and analyze CO2 emissions from six sub-sectors: offices, mercantile, food and lodging, education, healthcare and others. Considering the gap of tertiary industry development status and climate diversity across regions, we base our study on regional analyses and the study subjects include 31 provincial regions of mainland China. We first estimate floor area and energy service demand of each sub-sector based on difference-influencing indicators. Then we conduct a scenario analysis and use an AIM/Enduse bottom-up cost optimization model to evaluate the CO2 reduction potential brought about by efficient technologies in China’s service buildings. The results show that: 1) office and mercantile are two major sub-sectors in the service sector, while most of the floor area increase in the service sector is due to office buildings; 2) by 2030 a considerable part of energy consumption will be replaced by renewable energy, which leads to no-regrets CO2 emissions reductions; 3) renewable energy penetration potential is smaller in regions with larger tertiary industry GDP and CO2 emission reductions in cold and warm regions are caused by consumption decrease of coal and electricity respectively; 4) the optimization analysis allocates more reduction potential to regions with a smaller tertiary GDP share.

In recent years, the concept of nearly zero energy buildings (NZEB) has gained wide attention in developed countries. Because of its contribution to achieving full decarbonization in the building sector, NZEB is starting to become a new design target of future buildings and an important means to achieve the 1.5 degrees goal in building sector. This paper reviews the development of NZEB technologies during the past two years (2015-2017) since the IPCC AR5 published and assesses the opportunities and barriers of NZEB in China's urban areas. The analysis suggests that NZEB is feasible in Chinese cities and there is a certain opportunity to achieve zero carbon emission in China's urban area, but there are some limitations and barriers. In order to widely implement NZEB, China should (1) lower the energy service demand in high-rise buildings and consider realizing a high population density with low-rise buildings; (2) promote efficient cooling technologies and the energy saving behavior of occupants.

Switching to electricity in the ground transport sector is considered a promising way to achieve the energy transition and CO2 emission reductions required to meet China's carbon neutral target by 2060. In this study, a transport energy model containing an elaborate transport demand model and a technology bottom-up model for detailed behavioral and technological representations was developed to investigate how electric vehicles (EVs) will penetrate the markets in the long-term and what impacts on energy consumption and emissions would emerge following EV adoption in China at the provincial level. A set of scenarios was created based on different policy interventions for the promotion of electric mobility. The results showed that subsidies for EV adoption would significantly boost the market share and foster a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, while the business-as-usual scenario would only generate a moderate influence on EV penetration. The regional differences in the emission reduction potential due to EV subsidies across the 31 provinces indicated that policy instruments for EV promotion would have significant positive effects in the developed provinces in both the capital metropolitan area and southeastern China. An economic cost analysis revealed a relatively low economic feasibility in northeastern and northwestern regions where the emission reduction potential is also lower than the national average, implying that the developing provinces in northeastern and northwestern China require greater financial assistance and the establishment of supportive policies for EV promotion.

In 2015 China submitted its “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21. China’s INDC called for several low carbon actions toward 2030, and one of the important actions by 2030 in the China’s INDC is to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emission per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level. In this study, we concentrate in service sector and estimates CO2 emission from six sub-sectors: office building, retail and store, hotel and restaurant, education, health care and others. Considering the gap of tertiary industry development and climate diversity across regions, we base our study on regional analysis and the study subject includes 31 provincial regions of mainland China. We first use a bottom-up cost optimization model called AIM/Enduse to evaluate the CO2 reduction potential brought about by efficient technologies in China’s service buildings. Then we design mitigation scenarios to examine the achievability of China’s INDC as well as the efforts of service sector in achieving the CO2 reduction target stated in China’s INDC. The results show that the service sector has a certain potential to succeed a no-regrets CO2 reduction target by 2030. For achieving China’s INDC target, all six sub-sectors need implement more efficient technologies. Reduction rates vary across provinces due to climatic variations and different development statuses of tertiary industry.

This study analyzes emissions pathways of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) and evaluates cobenefits and tradeoffs among GHGs, air-pollutions and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) emissions, while taking mitigation actions for achieving a 2 global temperature change limit above pre-industrial levels, so called the 2 target. This study focuses on the following points; 1) technological mitigation potentials and costs of GHGs, 2) cobenefits in reducing of SLCPs and air pollutants due to the effects of low-carbon measures, 3) tradeoffs of increasing SLCPs and air pollutants due to implementing coal and biomass power plants with CCS, 4) effects of air pollutant control measures in addition to low-carbon measures. Carbon price for achieving the 2 target is expensive, reaching at around 400 US$/tCO 2 in 2050. However, large cobenefits in reducing SLCPs and air pollutants are identified due to energy efficiency improvements on the demand sectors and energy shifting from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuel energies on the supply sector. On the other hand, emissions rebounds such as SO 2 , BC, PM 2.5 are found when implementing more coal and biomass power plants with CCS. Even if emissions rebound are arose, it is technologically possible by promoting additional air pollutant control measures to reduce SO 2 , BC, PM 2.5 , around 80-90% reductions compared to the 2010 level. To explore the 2 target pathways from the viewpoint of balancing climate impacts and health impacts, it is necessary to discuss reduction profiles of air pollutants and SLCPs carefully by the combination of measures on CO 2 and air pollutants.

The residential sector accounts for the second or third share of final energy consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions in both The Republic of Korea and in China. Energy service demand in the residential sector in these countries is influenced by climate and economic circumstances. However, in previous studies, such regional disparities are often overlooked, hence this study analyzes 6 Korean sub-national and 31 Chinese provincial levels while taking into consideration of reginal disparities. In this study principal socio-economic drivers such like GDP (Gross domestic product) and population are taken from used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The impact of efficient technologies on future CO2 emissions is evaluated using the AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)/Enduse, a technology bottom-up optimization model integrated with bottom-up service demand models. Three future scenarios are also designed to conduct future evaluation on CO2 emissions growth and potential mitigation measures to meet the emissions target. From the results, impact of each technology was shown to vary across regions. Heating devices, water-heaters and cooking ranges with higher efficiencies are the most effective efficient technologies for both countries. Achieving a 30% CO2 emissions reduction goal requires the combination of various technologies across various regions due to differences in climate and economic circumstances.

The cell surface glycoprotein mesothelin is highly expressed in several malignant diseases. Normal mesothelin expression is limited to mesothelial cells lining the pleura, peritoneum, and pericardium, making it a biomarker and an attractive target for cancer therapy. We investigated tumor mesothelin expression and serum mesothelin levels in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer or borderline tumors. In total, 161 patients selected from a previous prospective study were analyzed for tumor mesothelin expression using immunohistochemistry and serum mesothelin expression using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Eighty-eight (68.8%) epithelial ovarian cancers and eight (24.2%) borderline tumors showed high mesothelin expression, which was associated with shorter progression-free and overall survival. The tumor mesothelin expression status was moderately correlated with serum mesothelin levels in epithelial ovarian cancer patients. Based on receiver operating characteristic analysis, a serum mesothelin level above 2.20 nM predicted high tumor mesothelin expression in epithelial ovarian cancer patients (area under the curve = 0.81). In 45 patients with recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer, we observed relatively lower levels of serum mesothelin, compared to the level at the primary diagnosis. We also tracked the change in the serum mesothelin level during the course of second-line chemotherapy and found a discrepancy between the clinical response and the serum mesothelin change in some patients, which suggested tumor heterogeneity among the tumor cells with or without mesothelin expression. Serum mesothelin may be a useful noninvasive biomarker surrogate for tumor mesothelin expression in future clinical trials for mesothelin-targeted therapy.

Thailand’s cement industry shows a significant share of energy consumption and GHG emissions in industries. Therefore, the industry will need to curb its emissions to meet the first national determined contribution (NDC). This study attempts to clarify two research questions: firstly, what is the cement demand under several scenarios of economic and demographic development pathways in Thailand’s cement industry? Secondly, how Thailand’s cement industry achieves the 1.5°. The scopes of this study focus on the per capita cement consumption in 2050, the energy consumption pathways, technology mix, and GHG emissions and other air pollutants. The scenarios include the cement industry target proposed in Thailand’s first NDC and the perspective in 2050. The socioeconomic indicators follow the SSPs narrative. The AIM/Enduse model used in this study is based on linear optimized bottom-up approach. Results show that the energy efficiency improvement and the increase of alternative energy in cement industry will reduce GHG emissions in 2050. To achieve the 1.5-degree pathway, the CCS technology will be deployed after 2022 with a carbon tax rate of US$ 500/t CO2. The use of biomass, municipal solid waste, and sewage sludge will offer a variety of environmental, social, and economic advantages. However, other air pollutants will be increased. Therefore, the policy makers should provide alternative fuel use limitations. Additionally, the CO2 transport and storage need to be assessed in the long-term climate policies.

China’s economic growth has been largely relying on the consumption of coal. The country has realized that its economic development has to be free from dependence on fossil fuels. On 30 June 2015, China submitted its ‘Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)’ in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21). One of the important actions in China’s NDC is to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. This study examines the efforts from China’s building sector (i.e. urban residential, rural residential and service) in achieving the CO2 reduction target stated in China’s NDC. Furthermore, this study also explores the post-NDC era and looks into the opportunities towards deep decarbonization in the building sector by mid-century for contributing to the Paris agreement. The study covers 31 provincial regions of mainland China anddisparities of climate and socioeconomic indicators across regions are fully considered. We use a bottom-up cost optimization model called AIM/Enduse to evaluate the CO2 reduction potential brought by efficient technologies in China’s building sector. Five scenarios are designed to illustrate the emission pathways through 2050. The results show that, when energy constraint and emission target is introduced in mitigation scenarios, new generation biomass contribute a lot to emission reduction. Reduction potential in the nearly zero emission scenario is mainly from the urban residential sector, and to achieve deep decarbonization by 2050, it is important to bring a significant reduction of per-capita energy consumption in addition to ci improvement both in urban and rural households. Co-benefit analysis suggests that air pollutants can also be significantly reduced by deep decarbonization policies.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the historical characteristics of energy transition and consumption patterns in rural and urban households in India. By developing a comprehensive database, this study first develops a systematic bottom-up method to construct per-capita energy balance table for rural and urban households in each state in year 2004, 2009 and 2011. Next, characteristics of energy transitions in relation with income levels are analyzed by comparing energy consumption across low, middle and high-income states for rural and urban households. In the study, it was found that cooking is the prime energy consuming service and faster energy transition is happening in higher income households. With increasing urbanization, transition to clean and energy efficient fuels for cooking and lighting services is observed. The quantity and share of biomass and kerosene has been decreasing in total per-capita household energy use, which is getting replaced by Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and electricity in high-income households. The rural high-income households consume more biomass, LPG and electricity than low-income households, whereas urban high-income households consume less biomass but significantly more LPG and electricity than low-income households. Among different drivers of energy demand, per-capita income and urbanization are emerging as most important drivers. Thus, this study explains energy choices in each service type, pattern of energy consumption and disparity in use of advance energies in rural and urban households across all states of India.

Objective Paclitaxel is known to produce the “platelet-sparing effect” that prevents the carboplatin-induced decrease in platelet count. We conducted a pilot study to assess whether the addition of low-dose paclitaxel to carboplatin-based combination chemotherapy prevents thrombocytopenia. Methods Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer received intravenous (IV) paclitaxel at 60 mg/m2 followed by IV carboplatin at an area under the curve of 6 and IV pegylated liposomal doxorubicin at 30 mg/m2 on day 1 in a 28-day cycle (DC-LOP) or IV gemcitabine at 1000 mg/m2 on days 1 and 8 in a 21-day cycle (GC-LOP). Results During May 2011 to December 2011, 7 patients received 29 cycles of DC-LOP; during January 2012 to May 2013, 15 patients received 88 cycles of GC-LOP. Grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia occurred in 2 (33%) of 6 and 9 (56%) of 16 patients in the DC-LOP and GC-LOP groups, respectively. No grade 3/4 nonhematological toxicity was observed. Only one patient who received GC-LOP had grade 2 sensory and motor peripheral neuropathy. Paclitaxel-related toxicities, including muscle pain, arthralgia, and peripheral neuropathy, were consistently rare and mild. The response rates of DC-LOP and GC-LOP were 33% (0, complete response; 2, partial response; 3, stable disease; 1, progression disease) and 50% (2, complete response; 6, partial response; 7, stable disease; 1, progression disease), respectively. Conclusions Although low-dose paclitaxel addition did not alleviate thrombocytopenia in the setting of this pilot study, the results do not deny the existence of the “platelet-sparing effect” by low-dose paclitaxel. Further investigation of the carboplatin-based combination chemotherapy including a drug with mild hematological toxicity is warranted.

This paper provides one systematic algorithm for constructing an emission downscale model focusing on the iron and steel industry (ISI) and providing plans to upgrade China's ISI up to 2050. Three aspects are considered: (1) introducing a site selection algorithm for ISI and setting priorities for closing outdated facilities; (2) mappi ng the future distribution of ISI by identifying the numbers and locations of new plants based on future crude steel demand, and determining the capacities of Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) and Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) in individual plants; and (3) allocating CO2 and air pollutant emissions from the whole ISI sector to individual plants. Results show that, to satisfy the rise in steel demand up to 2030, a total of 22 new plants will be constructed. By 2050, however, 333 Mt of crude steel capacity will be closed as industrial upgrade plans proceed and steel demand declines. Twenty-six percent of the capacity closure will take place in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The EAF ratio will increase to 41% in 2050 as recyclable ferrous scrap increases. The capacity utilization rate for each period will exceed 80%, in accordance with national policy requirements. Finally, emission maps from each steel plant are drawn based on plant capacities. In conclusion, this research can provide detailed suggestions for Chinese ISI development with high feasibility. The health and economic impacts of ISI on surrounding areas can subsequently be determined in order to draw attention to the promotion of rational industrial planning.

This study analyzes emissions pathways and mitigation potentials of greenhouse gases (GHGs), air-pollution and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), while taking mitigation actions for achieving a 2 °C global temperature change limit above pre-industrial levels, so-called “2 °C target.” The study evaluates SLCPs (i.e. BC, CH4, tropospheric O3) mitigation scenarios by considering synergies and tradeoffs of various combinations of low-carbon measures and air pollutants control measures. It was found that, even if CO2 emissions pathways in this study are all similar to achieve the 2 °C target, reaching a carbon price at around 400 US$/tCO2eq. in 2050, SLCPs and air pollutants emissions pathways and mitigation potentials are largely influenced by combinations of some key mitigation measures. The maximum mitigation potential reductions of SLCPs (BC, CH4) and air pollutants (NOx, CO, NMVOC, which are precursors of tropospheric O3) in Asia are 89%, 22%, 67%, 37%, and 11% respectively by 2050 compared to the 2010 levels. After considering both direct SLCP reduction effects (i.e. mitigating BC, CH4) and indirect SLCP reduction effects (i.e. mitigating NOx, CO, NMVOC for reducing tropospheric O3 generation and atmospheric CH4 concentration), it can be adjudged that combinations of widespread promotion of renewable energies, drastic electrification in transport, residential and commercial sectors, high biofuel shares in the transport sector, and a certain level of deployment of removal devices would be effective SLCP mitigation scenarios.

The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005–2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 °C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

Folate receptor alpha (FRA) is a GPI-anchored glycoprotein and encoded by the FOLR1 gene. High expression of FRA is observed in specific malignant tumors of epithelial origin, including ovarian cancer, but exhibits very limited normal tissue expression, making it as an attractive target for the ovarian cancer therapy. FRA is known to shed from the cell surface into the circulation which allows for its measurement in the serum of patients. Recently, methods to detect the soluble form of FRA have been developed and serum FRA (sFRA) is considered a highly promising biomarker for ovarian cancer. We prospectively investigated the levels of sFRA in patients clinically suspected of having malignant ovarian tumors. A total of 231 patients were enrolled in this study and analyzed for sFRA as well as tumor expression of FRA by immunohistochemistry. High sFRA was predominantly observed in epithelial ovarian cancer patients, but not in patients with benign or borderline gynecological disease or metastatic ovarian tumors from advanced colorectal cancers. Levels of sFRA were highly correlated to clinical stage, tumor grade and histological type and demonstrated superior accuracy for the detection of ovarian cancer than did serum CA125. High sFRA was significantly associated with shorter progression-free survival in both early and advanced ovarian cancer patients. Finally, tumor FRA expression status was strongly correlated with sFRA levels. Taken together, these data suggest that sFRA might be a useful noninvasive serum biomarkers for future clinical trials assessing FRA-targeted therapy.

Energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale. Thus, nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance. In recent times, there has been a drive for global awareness on Low Carbon Society (LCS) measures, where carbon mitigation is at the forefront. Thus, this paper analyses the LCS measures for the Thai industrial sector. Thai industrial sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. The primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the Thai industrial sector and the co-benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios. Thai industrial sector was modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse. Three groups of scenarios under LCS, emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the BAU case. Results show that LCS scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35% by 2050 in comparison to the BAU case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the CCS technology. The emission tax scenarios, where tax rates of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55% cumulative mitigation by 2050. Even though this reduction is higher than the LCS scenarios, there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios. The same applies to reduction target scenarios as well. The co-benefits, which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the LCS scenarios, where renewable fuel share increases, whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases. The LCS scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as SO 2 and Particulate Matter.

Background: This study aimed to determine the efficacy of the risk of ovarian malignancy algorithm (ROMA), calculated using the carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) and human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) levels and the menopausal status, as a predictor of peritoneal dissemination in ovarian cancer. Methods: The CA125 and HE4 levels and the ROMA were compared between ovarian cancer patients (n = 122) with or without peritoneal dissemination. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated, and the results were compared with those of computed tomography (CT). Results: The CA125, HE4, and ROMA values differed significantly depending on the presence of peritoneal dissemination (p < 0.0001). The cut-off values were 181 U/ml for CA125, 161 pmol/ml for HE4, 44% for the ROMA (premenopausal), and 86% for the ROMA (postmenopausal). Among these markers, the ROMA (premenopausal) was the strongest predictor of peritoneal dissemination, with a specificity of 85.0% and a positive predictive value of 81.3%. In addition, the detection rates of small disseminations with less than 2 cm in diameter for the ROMA (93%) and HE4 (60%) were superior to that of CT (53%). Conclusions: The ROMA was a significant predictor of peritoneal dissemination and may be superior to CT for the detection of patients with small disseminations.

Background: Endometrial cytology by direct intrauterine sampling is the most common test for an initial evaluation of the endometrium in Japan. However, its diagnostic value for endometrial cancer remains unknown. Here, we assess the correlation between cytopathology and histopathology to evaluate the diagnostic value of cytology for endometrial cancer. Methods: Patients with histologically confirmed endometrial cancer and controls with a normal endometrium confirmed by hysterectomy had all undergone preoperative endometrial cytology between 2001 and 2010 at our eight institutions and were retrospectively analyzed. The cytological results were compared by clinical stage, histological type, differentiation, and sampling instrument. Results: We analyzed 1,441 endometrial cancer and 1,361 control cases. Endometrial cytology detected cancer in 1,279 (916 positive and 363 suspicious) cases with a sensitivity (positive plus suspicious cases) of 88.8% and a specificity of 98.5%. The positive rate was high in advanced-stage, nonendometrioid, and undifferentiated cases, but there was no significant difference in sensitivity between these clinical conditions. Conclusion: Endometrial cytology shows a relatively high sensitivity and specificity for endometrial cancer, and neither statistical measure is significantly affected by clinical stage, histological type, differentiation, sample numbers, or sampling instrument. These findings form a superior dataset for evaluating the efficacy of endometrial cytology. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel

During 1990–2010, the power generation sector has been the highest energy consuming and CO2 emitting sector while the residential and building sectors have been the largest electricity consuming sector, accounted for about 57.1% of overall electricity consumption in Thailand. This study employed AIM/Enduse model to investigate the CO2 reduction measures which are related to the marginal abatement cost (MAC) in the long term planning. Seven mitigation measures by replacing existing energy devices with more efficient ones based on the data currently available on the market are implemented: (1) efficient lighting devices, (2) efficient cooling devices, (3) efficient heating devices, (4) efficient other electrical devices, (5) efficient cooking devices, (6) Insulated houses, and (7) building codes. Results indicate that in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario between 2010 and 2050, the energy demand and CO2 emissions would increase to 39,140 ktoe and 52,047 kt-CO2, respectively. By adopting these policy strategies, energy demand can be reduced by about 42.7% of total energy demand in 2050 while CO2 emissions can be mitigated by 35.0% of overall CO2 emissions in 2050. The efficient cooling devices will contribute to the largest CO2 reduction in 2050 with low MAC when compared to other measures.

Recently, Low Carbon Society (LCS) principle has emerged as a practicable campaign for both developing and developed countries to deal with the dramatic increment of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Various key features of LCS entail reducing energy demand and consumption while avoiding the fossil fuel utilization which is a major contributor to substantial CO 2 emissions. In this study, Thailand's power sector is modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse). The objective of this study is to model the Thai power sector such that the viability of clean generating technologies for Thailand is considered and their mitigating effects are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the fossil fuel based technology would be replaced by clean technologies including, coal-fired power plant with CCS technology and renewable energies in the LCS scenario. The LCS scenario can mitigate CO 2 emissions by 58,098 ktCO 2 in 2050 when compared to BAU scenario.

In this paper, we explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world as part of the Asian Modeling Exercise and assess technology options for meeting a 2.6 W/m2 radiative forcing target using AIM/Enduse[Global] and AIM/Impact[Policy]. Global GHG emissions in 2050 are required to be reduced by 72% relative to a reference scenario, which corresponds to a 57% reduction from the 2005 level, in order to meet the above target. Energy intensity improvement contributes a lot to curbing CO2 emission in the short-term. Meanwhile, carbon intensity reduction and CO2 capture play a large role for further emission reduction in the mid to long-term. The top five key technologies in terms of reduction amount are CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation and biofuel, which, in total, account for about 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050. We implement additional model runs, each of which enforced limited availability of one of the key technology. The result shows that the 2.6 W/m2 target up to 2050 is achievable even if availability of any one of the key technologies is limited to half the level achieved in the default simulation. However, if the use of CCS or biomass is limited, the cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050 increases considerably. Therefore CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions.

This study focuses on low-carbon transitions in the mid-term and analyzes mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030 in a comparison based on bottom-up-type models. The study provides in-depth analyses of technological mitigation potentials and costs by sector and analyzes marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to 200 US $/tCO2 eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US $/tCO2 eq in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In China and India, results of GHG emissions relative to 2005 vary very widely due to the difference in baseline emissions as well as the diffusion rate of mitigation technologies. Future portfolios of advanced technologies and energy resources, especially nuclear and renewable energies, are the most prominent reasons for the difference in MAC curves. Transitions toward a low-carbon society are not in line with current trends, and will require drastic GHG reductions, hence it is important to discuss how to overcome various existing barriers such as energy security constraints and technological restrictions.

This study analyzes the role of energy intensity improvement in the short term (to the year 2020) and midterm (to the year 2050) in the context of long-term greenhouse gases (GHG) stabilization scenarios. The data come from the latest Emissions Scenarios Database and were reviewed in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, quantitative decomposition analyses using the extended Kaya identity are applied to the stabilization scenarios in Categories I to IV of Table SPM.5 in the AR4. Furthermore, quantitative decomposition analyses of Category IV scenarios are conducted for major GHG-emitting countries, such as the USA, Western Europe, China, and India, by utilizing the large number of reports in the database. This study provides in-depth analyses of the relationship between energy intensity improvement and other major indicators. One finding is that energy intensity improvement plays an important role in the short term, and the rate of energy intensity improvement is assumed to be around 2% per year as a median value across Categories I–III in the midterm on the global scale. However, achieving stringent stabilization levels requires various other measures regarding the use of less-carbon intensive fossil fuels, the shift to non-fossil fuel energies, and advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage.

農業部門・廃棄物部門でのメタン (CH4) と亜酸化窒素 (N2O) の排出削減対策は二酸化炭素 (CO2) より比較的安価であるため, 京都議定書の削減目標の達成に向けた取り組みとして着目されている. 本研究では世界67地域を対象にこれらの部門における2000年から2030年の排出インベントリを構築し, 対策技術の導入にかかる費用と削減ポテンシャルを評価した. その結果, 削減効果が期待できる地域は, アジア, 南米, アフリカであり, その排出源は家畜反鯛, 家畜糞尿管理, 廃棄物部門であった. 高い削減効果が見込まれる対策技術は, 家畜飼料の変更, 廃棄物の嫌気発酵処理であり, 比較的安価な対策は, 家畜飼料の変更や糞尿の嫌気発酵処理であることがわかった.

Until 2012, most of China’s population lived in rural areas with markedly different patterns of household energy consumption from those in Chinese cities. The studies so far done on residential energy use in rural Chinese households have been limited to questionnaire surveys and panel data analyses. Hardly any studies on energy demand in rural areas have considered both the climatic and economic disparities across Chinese regions. In this study we conduct a systematic analysis of the rural Chinese residential sector on a regional basis. We begin by developing a macro-model to estimate energy service demands up to 2050. Next, we apply the AIM(Asia-Pasific Integrated Model)/Enduse model, a bottom-up cost-minimization model with a detailed mitigation technology database, to estimate the mitigation potential of low-carbon technologies in rural China. Our results show that energy service demand in the rural household sector will continue to increase in regions with growing population or income conditions. However, after 2030, the rural residential energy service demand will start to decline in most Chinese regions. The impacts of efficient technologies will vary from one region to the next due to regional climatic and economic disparities. Throughout all of China, the penetration of efficient technologies can reduce CO2 emissions by 20% to 50%. Of the technologies available, efficient lighting, biomass water heaters, and efficient electronics bring the most benefit when implemented in rural households.

In 2014, we published an article titled “Novel uterine sarcoma preoperative diagnosis score predicts the need for surgery in patients presenting with a uterine mass” on the preoperative diagnosis of uterine sarcoma, in the SpringerPlus (Nagai et al. in SpringerPlus 2014, 3:678. doi: 10.1186/2193-1801-3-678 ). Subsequently, we received several suggestions from readers, which were used to modify the statistical analysis methods and create a more precise preoperative diagnostic scoring system, which we present here as a supplemental report. The subjects were 63 patients who underwent surgical therapy for suspected uterine sarcoma (sarcoma group: 15 patients, benign group: 48 patients). Logistic regression analysis using the exact method was performed considering the subjects’ preoperative age, serum lactate dehydrogenase levels, magnetic resonance imaging findings, and endometrial cytology findings. We then used parameter estimates obtained from this analysis to revise the PREoperative Sarcoma Score (PRESS). The revised PRESS (rPRESS) has a maximum score of 10 points and an optimal cut-off value of 4 points, as derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Using this, the accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 93.7, 92.3, and 94.0 %, respectively. The diagnostic precision of the rPRESS is better than that of the original PRESS.

Preoperative diagnosis of uterine sarcoma is very difficult, and currently, its diagnostic accuracy is not satisfactory. It is therefore important to perform surgery and establish the pathological diagnosis if the clinical findings and various examination findings indicate possible uterine sarcoma. We investigated the accuracy of the combination of various types of predictors of uterine sarcoma and the novel PRE operative S arcoma S core (PRESS) for avoiding unnecessary surgery while diagnosing uterine sarcoma. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical findings, blood tests, imaging studies (ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]), and endometrial cytology of 63 suspected uterine sarcoma cases that underwent surgery from 2006 to 2012. These cases were also scored retrospectively using PRESS. We analyzed the number of unnecessary surgeries that could be avoided using PRESS. Of 63 cases, 15 were diagnosed with uterine sarcoma (sarcoma group), and 48 had benign tumors (benign group). Univariate analysis indicated age, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) values, and MRI and endometrial cytology findings as significant predictors of uterine sarcoma in both groups. In contrast, multivariable analysis identified only age, serum LDH value, and endometrial cytology findings as significant predictors. Accordingly, the latter were placed as 2 points, and the remaining MRI finding as 1 point. The accuracy rate of prediction was 84.1%, and the positive and negative predictive values were 63.2% and 93.2% respectively when the PRESS was interpreted as “positive” when it was 3 points or higher. Using multiple predictors for the preoperative diagnosis of uterine sarcoma, our proposed PRESS score is beneficial in the clinical setting while making treatment decisions in suspected uterine sarcoma cases as well as avoiding unnecessary surgery.

OBJECTIVE We evaluated the feasibility of combination chemotherapy with paclitaxel, doxorubicin and cisplatin without prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor injection for intermediate-to-high-risk or recurrent endometrial cancer. METHODS Women with histologically confirmed FIGO Stages I-II with >1/2 myometrial invasion, Stage III/IV or recurrent endometrial cancer were enrolled. Patients received intravenous doxorubicin (45 mg/m(2)), followed by cisplatin (50 mg/m(2)) on Day 1 and intravenous paclitaxel (160 mg/m(2)) on Day 2. Granisetron (75 µg) was administered depending on neutrophil counts on Days 3 and 8. Treatment was repeated every 21 days for six cycles or until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was the completion rate of the scheduled chemotherapy; secondary endpoints were Grade 3/4 toxicity and response rate in patients with measurable lesions. RESULTS From September 2010 to December 2012, 35 women, including 7 with FIGO Stage I, 4 with Stage II, 13 with Stage III, 10 with Stage IV and 1 with recurrent endometrial cancer, were enrolled. There were 26 endometrial carcinomas (Grade 1, 16; Grade 2, 6; Grade 3, 4), 4 carcinosarcomas, 2 serous adenocarcinomas, 1 neuroendocrine carcinoma, 1 poorly differentiated carcinoma and 1 mixed carcinoma. Twenty-five patients (71%) completed six chemotherapy cycles. Grade 3/4 hematological toxicities included neutrocytopenia (97%), thrombocytopenia (6%) and anemia (34%). Three patients (9%) experienced neutropenic fever. Grade 3/4 non-hematological toxicities were observed in 13 patients. In 15 patients with evaluable lesions, the response rate was 80%. CONCLUSIONS Combination chemotherapy with paclitaxel, doxorubicin and cisplatin without prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor injection is feasible.

Transitions to cleaner, renewable energy are at the heart ofpolicies in many countries. The focus on renewables has, ifanything, become greater recently as uncertainty growsabout the viability and acceptability of alternatives toachieve low-carbon growth, including nuclear power andcarbon capture and storage (REN21 2010). The Fukushimaaccident has forced many governments to rethink theirnuclear energy plans—Japan has just shutdown their lastnuclear power plant, and Germany announced last year itwill be nuclear free by 2022. But transitions away fromfossil fuel-based energy systems have proven slow despitethe potential of renewable energy sources and advancingtechnologies to utilize them.Recent research in ‘Transitions Studies’ argues thattransitions will not be a technological fix but will requiresome combination of economic, political, institutional andsocio-cultural changes (Berkhout et al. 2009; Cohen et al.2010; Stephens et al. 2008). Without doubt, these transi-tions must be guided by an ethics that brings togethertechnology and sustainability. In the introductory messageto this special issue, Jean-Louis Armand calls for such anethic of long-range responsibility—one that is properlyembedded in sustainability science as a guide for ourfuture.In response to this complex issue, Sustainability Sciencehas organized a special issue on two related themes—thecosts of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions andthe diffusion of clean energy technologies. The first fourpapers model abatement costs for world regions andsectors with a focus on medium term GHG emissiontargets (2020 and 2030)—a key step in stabilizing long-term climate change under the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These studiesfind that transitions toward a low-carbon society are notan extension of the current trends, and far greater GHGreductions—both on national and global scales—arerequired in the mid-term. A further five papers explore thebarriers and opportunities of energy transitions on theground, using transition management theories to explainempirical cases in India, Japan, Malaysia and the UnitedStates.Hanaoka and Kainuma conduct a comparison of GHGmarginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to200 US $/tCO

Using a global dynamic optimization model that includes a notion of endogenous energy-saving investments, economic impacts and energy-system changes are assessed under several policy cases where CO 2 concentration is stabilized at the 450, 500, and 550 ppm levels by the year 2100. The effect of increased investments in energy-saving technologies on energy efficiency is derived exogenously from results of the AIM/Enduse model applied to Japan, then endogenized in the global dynamic optimization model. We find that with diffusion of energy-saving technologies, GDP loss during the 21st century falls from 2.5% to 2.1% in the 450 ppm case. The impact is small for the 550 ppm case, however, because a shift to low-carbon-intensive energies such as gas and renewable energies does not occur to a significant extent under this target.

In this article we examine the technological feasibility of the global target of reducing GHG emissions to 50 % of the 1990 level by the year 2050. We also perform a detailed analysis of the contribution of low-carbon technologies to GHG emission reduction over mid- and long-term timeframes, and evaluate the required technological cost. For the analysis we use AIM/Enduse[Global], a techno-economic model for climate change mitigation policy assessment. The results show that a 50 % GHG emission reduction target is technically achievable. Yet achieving the target will require substantial emission mitigation efforts. The GHG emission reduction rate from the reference scenario stands at 23 % in 2020 and 73 % in 2050. The marginal abatement cost to achieve these emission reductions reaches $150/tCO2-eq in 2020 and $600/tCO2-eq in 2050. Renewable energy, fuel switching, and efficiency improvement in power generation account for 45 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. Non-energy sectors, namely, fugitive emission, waste management, agriculture, and F-gases, account for 25 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation, and biofuel together account for 64 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2050. Additional investment in GHG abatement technologies for achieving the target reaches US$ 6.0 trillion by 2020 and US$ 73 trillion by 2050. This corresponds to 0.7 and 1.8 % of the world GDP, respectively, in the same periods. Non-Annex I regions account for 55 % of the total additional investment by 2050. In a sectoral breakdown, the power generation and transport sectors account for 56 and 30 % of the total additional investment by 2050, respectively.

In this paper, we assessed the technological feasibility and economic viability of the mid-term (until 2050) GHG emission reduction target required for stabilization of radiative forcing at 2.6 W/m2. Given the apparent uncertainty surrounding the future deployment of nuclear and CCS technologies, we intensively investigated emission reduction scenarios without nuclear and CCS. The analysis using AIM/Enduse[Global] shows the emission reduction target is technologically feasible, but the cost for achieving the target becomes very high if nuclear and CCS options are limited. The main reason for the cost rise is that additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order to compensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation sectors in the absence of CCS. On the other hand, if material efficiency improvement measures, such as material substitution, efficient use of materials and recycling, are taken, the cost of achieving the emission reduction target is significantly reduced. The result indicates the potentially important role of material efficiency improvement in curbing the cost of significant GHG emission reductions without depending on nuclear and CCS.

Thai industry sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. With the CO 2 emissions ballooning in the developing world, the pertinence of Low Carbon Scenario (LCS) and their co-benefits has increased. This research quantitatively analyses the CO 2 mitigation in the Thai industrial sector through counter-measures in LCS scenarios. Results show that with an ambitious LCS pathway predicted in LCS1 scenario, a cumulative mitigation of 34% from 2010 to 2050 is possible, whilst approximately 24% is possible from a circumspect approach, as in LCS2 scenario. Both the designed scenarios have positive impacts on energy security, where they increase the diversity of the system and increase the renewable fuel share and reduce the oil share. These scenarios also contribute to the mitigation of local air pollutants as well.

Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil Share and Diversification of Fuel Share would exhibit enhanced energy security levels. The new Counter Measures (CM) proposed, such as, new and advanced technologies and fuel switching would drive the mitigation levels. Increase in energy efficiency of heating and electricity use would reduce the primary energy demand and intensity.