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To repurpose therapeutics for fibrolamellar carcinoma (FLC), we developed and validated patient-derived xenografts (PDX) from surgical resections. Most agents used clinically and inhibitors of oncogenes overexpressed in FLC showed little efficacy on PDX. A high-throughput functional drug screen found primary and metastatic FLC were vulnerable to clinically available inhibitors of TOPO1 and HDAC and to napabucasin. Napabucasin's efficacy was mediated through reactive oxygen species and inhibition of translation initiation, and specific inhibition of eIF4A was effective. The sensitivity of each PDX line inversely correlated with expression of the antiapoptotic protein Bcl-xL, and inhibition of Bcl-xL synergized with other drugs. Screening directly on cells dissociated from patient resections validated these results. This demonstrates that a direct functional screen on patient tumors provides therapeutically informative data within a clinically useful time frame. Identifying these novel therapeutic targets and combination therapies is an urgent need, as effective therapeutics for FLC are currently unavailable. Significance: Therapeutics informed by genomics have not yielded effective therapies for FLC. A functional screen identified TOPO1, HDAC inhibitors, and napabucasin as efficacious and synergistic with inhibition of Bcl-xL. Validation on cells dissociated directly from patient tumors demonstrates the ability for functional precision medicine in a solid tumor. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 2355

Despite achieving sustained virologic response (SVR) to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, there remains a post liver transplantation population with advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. Emricasan is an orally active, pan-caspase inhibitor that suppresses apoptosis and inflammation, potentially decreasing hepatic inflammation and fibrosis. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of emricasan (IDN-6556-07) in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter study in reducing or preventing the progression of hepatic fibrosis in HCV liver transplant recipients with residual fibrosis or cirrhosis after achieving SVR. A total of 64 participants were randomly assigned to receive 25 mg twice daily of emricasan or placebo in a 2:1 ratio for 24 months. 41 participants were randomly assigned to emricasan and 23 to placebo; 32 participants in the emricasan group (78.0%) and 19 who took a placebo (82.6%) completed the study. There was no difference in the primary endpoint (Ishak fibrosis stages F2-F5, improvement in fibrosis or stability; Ishak fibrosis stage F6, improvement) between the emricasan (77.1%) and placebo groups (74.1%); P = NS. There was no difference between the emricasan (54.5%) and placebo (60.7%) arms in the rate of fibrosis improvement alone. However, those in the prespecified F3 to F5 subgroup had higher rates of stability or improvement in fibrosis in the emricasan group (95.2%) compared with placebo (54.6%) (P = 0.01). The tolerability and safety profiles were similar in both groups. In conclusion, overall stability in the Ishak fibrosis stage was similar between emricasan and placebo groups at 24 months. However, there was improvement and/or stability in fibrosis stage in the prespecified F3 to F5 subgroup with emricasan versus placebo, suggesting that patients with moderate fibrosis may benefit with emricasan.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is the leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the USA. Alcohol relapse post-LT can negatively impact long-term outcomes, and prognostic scoring systems are available for further study. Our study aims were to: (1) evaluate the relationship between alcohol relapse and rejection and mortality, (2) investigate risk factors for relapse, and (3) assess predictive validity of the SIPAT (Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplant) and SALT (Sustained Alcohol Use Post-Liver Transplant) scores on post-LT alcohol relapse. We conducted a retrospective chart review of 155 patients transplanted for chronic ALD at a single transplant center. Cox proportional hazard models assessed the relationship between alcohol relapse and allograft rejection and psychosocial risk factors for relapse. 20% of patients met criteria for alcohol relapse. Alcohol relapse was associated with allograft rejection (HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.11–4.91, p = .03). Three variables most strongly associated with alcohol relapse: prior relapse, failure to engage in recommended alcohol treatment, and continued drinking with liver disease, which were combined into a psychosocial model. SIPAT score≥ 21 and SALT score ≥ 7 were associated with alcohol relapse (HR 6.40, 95% CI 1.36–30.18, p = .019 and HR 2.30, 95% CI 1.12–4.75, p = .024). Receiver operator characteristic analysis compared predictive ability of our psychosocial model to SIPAT (C-statistic .83 compared to .71) and SALT (C-statistic = .77 compared to .62). We identified important psychosocial predictors of post-LT alcohol relapse and validated SIPAT and SALT scores as pre-transplant risk factors for alcohol relapse.

Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have provided benefit in patients requiring anticoagulation for certain diseases by decreasing the burden of subcutaneous injections and the requirement for frequent monitoring through regular blood tests, to ensure adequacy of the therapeutic doses. Studies have demonstrated DOACs to be as safe, and in some instance safer, compared with traditional anticoagulants in the general population. However, the studies evaluating DOACs excluded patients with cirrhosis, a condition associated with an increased risk of developing portal vein thrombosis (PVT). Warfarin or low-molecular weight heparin are the standard-of-care treatment for acute PVT in cirrhosis, although there is enthusiasm in a paradigm shift switching to DOACs for the treatment of acute PVT in cirrhosis, particularly since the release of DOAC antidotes. This article reviews the current Food and Drug Administration-approved DOACs, hepatic metabolism of DOACs, pharmacokinetics of DOACs in patients with cirrhosis, safety of DOACs (including bleeding, hepatotoxicity, and pregnancy), current treatment guidelines for PVT in cirrhosis, and studies evaluating the use of DOACs in cirrhosis and for the treatment of PVT in cirrhosis. The potential use of DOACs for PVT primary prophylaxis in at-risk patients with cirrhosis and the possible antifibrotic effects of DOACs are also discussed.

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) can be coded in United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) as either alcoholic cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis (AH), without having specific criteria to assign either diagnosis. In this multicenter American Consortium of Early Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis (ACCELERATE-AH) study, we sought to assess the concordance of the clinician diagnosis of AH at liver transplantation (LT) listing versus UNOS data entry of AH as listing diagnosis. In a prior study, consecutive early LT recipients transplanted for AH between 2012 and 2017 were identified by chart review at 10 ACCELERATE-AH sites. In this current study, these same LT recipients were identified in the UNOS database. The primary UNOS diagnostic code was evaluated for concordance with the chart-review assignment of AH. In cases where the primary listing diagnosis in UNOS was not AH, we determined the reason for alternate classification. Among 124 ACCELERATE-AH LT recipients with a chart-review diagnosis of AH, only 43/124 (35%) had AH as listing diagnosis in UNOS; 80 (64%) were listed as alcoholic cirrhosis, and 1 (1%) as fulminant hepatic necrosis. Of the 81 patients missing AH as a UNOS listing diagnosis code, the reasons for alternate classification were 44 (54%) due to a lack of awareness of a separate diagnosis code for AH; 13 (16%) due to concomitant clinical diagnosis of AH and alcoholic cirrhosis in the chart; 12 (15%) due to clinical uncertainty regarding the diagnosis of AH versus acute decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis; and 12 (15%) due to a data entry error. In conclusion, in a large cohort of LT recipients with AH, only 35% were documented as such in UNOS. Increased education and awareness for those performing UNOS data entry, the establishment of specific criteria to define AH in the UNOS database, and the ability to document dates of alcohol use would allow future research on ALD to be more informative.

Within the field of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), the randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial is considered the most efficient means of simultaneously assessing the efficacy and safety of a medical therapy in a single trial. While many RCTs are conducted without blinding (open label), it is rare to encounter a blinded trial that does not randomize its subjects. Clinical trials for chronic liver diseases have adopted many of the practices set forth by RCTs in other chronic diseases, but blinding has often been difficult to properly implement. This review examines the rationale for blinding, common challenges to successful blinding, different mechanisms of unintentional unblinding in clinical trials for viral hepatitis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and recommendations for blinding and design in future trials of treatments for liver disease.

The Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplant (SIPAT) is a standardized psychosocial evaluation tool used in liver transplantation (LT) evaluation. We assessed the impact of the SIPAT score and subdomains on transplant waitlisting decisions and post-LT outcomes including immunosuppression (IS) nonadherence, biopsy-proven rejection, andmortality/graft failure. We conducted a single-center observational cohort study of 1430 patients evaluated for LT. Patients were divided in 2 groups based on a SIPAT cutoff score of

We appreciate Dr. Eyal Shemesh's careful review of our manuscript, "The Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplant is Associated with Outcomes Before and After Liver Transplantation." The data for the tacrolimus coefficient of variation (CoV) is emerging in liver transplantation (LT) and intrapatient tacrolimus variability can be calculated several ways.

Background & Aims Early liver transplantation (LT) for alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is lifesaving but concerns regarding return to harmful alcohol use remain. We sought to identify distinct patterns of alcohol use post-LT to inform pre-LT candidate selection and post-LT addiction care. Methods Detailed post-LT alcohol use data was gathered retrospectively from consecutive patients with severe AH at 11 ACCELERATE-AH sites from 2006–2018. Latent class analysis identified longitudinal patterns of alcohol use post-LT. Logistic and Cox regression evaluated associations between patterns of alcohol use with pre-LT variables and post-LT survival. A microsimulation model estimated the effect of selection criteria on overall outcomes. Results Of 153 LT recipients, 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival were 95%, 88% and 82%. Of 146 LT recipients surviving to home discharge, 4 distinct longitudinal patterns of post-LT alcohol use were identified: Pattern 1 [abstinent](n = 103; 71%), pattern 2 [late/non-heavy](n = 9; 6.2%), pattern 3 [early/non-heavy](n = 22; 15%), pattern 4 [early/heavy](n = 12; 8.2%). One-year survival was similar among the 4 patterns (100%), but patients with early post-LT alcohol use had lower 5-year survival (62% and 53%) compared to abstinent and late/non-heavy patterns (95% and 100%). Early alcohol use patterns were associated with younger age, multiple prior rehabilitation attempts, and overt encephalopathy. In simulation models, the pattern of post-LT alcohol use changed the average life-expectancy after early LT for AH. Conclusions A significant majority of LT recipients for AH maintain longer-term abstinence, but there are distinct patterns of alcohol use associated with higher risk of 3- and 5-year mortality. Pre-LT characteristics are associated with post-LT alcohol use patterns and may inform candidate selection and post-LT addiction care.

PURPOSE To compare patients treated with large-volume paracentesis (LVP), transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), and peritoneovenous shunt (PVS) for ascites. MATERIALS AND METHODS A retrospective study of 192 patients treated with LVP (94), TIPS (75), or PVS (23) was performed. Records were reviewed for patient characteristics and outcomes. The patients' age differed (LVP, 59.5 years; TIPS, 58.8 years; and PVS, 65.6 years; P = .003). Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis was the most common etiology in the PVS cohort (11/23, 47%), and hepatitis C in the TIPS (27/75, 36%), and LVP cohorts (43/94, 46%) (P = .032). The model for end-stage liver disease score was significantly different (LVP, 14; TIPS, 13; and PVS, 8; P = .035). Hepatocellular carcinoma was higher in the PVS cohort (6/23 patients, 25%) than in the TIPS (4/75, 5%), and LVP (12/94, 12%) cohorts (P = .03). RESULTS Emergency department visits and hospital readmissions were the highest in the LVP cohort (40%, ≥2 readmissions, P < .001). Patients required fewer LVPs after TIPS (1.5 to 0.14, P < .001) or PVS (2.1 to 0.5, P = .019). In an unadjusted Cox model, patients in the TIPS cohort were found to have a 58% reduction in the risk of death compared with patients in the LVP cohort (P = .003). Transplant-free survival (PVS, 44 days; TIPS, 155 days; and LVP, 213 days) differed (log rank = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The survival in the PVS and TIPS cohorts was similar, with less healthcare utilization than the LVP cohort. PVS is a satisfactory alternative to LVP.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is typically associated with obesity. Little is known about the prevalence of cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD and a normal body mass index (BMI).We determined prevalence of cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and metabolic abnormalities among participants in all BMI categories in the TARGET-NASH study. A total of 3386 patients with NAFLD were enrolled from August 2016 through March 2019. The odds ratios of cirrhosis, CVD, and metabolic abnormalities were estimated by age and race, adjusting for sex and center type.Based on standard BMI cutoff values, 12.8% of study subjects were lean, 27.1% were overweight, 26.5% had class 1 obesity, and 33.7% had class 2 or 3 obesity. Asians accounted for 48.7% of lean participants, and proportions decreased as BMI categories increased (P .0001). Lower proportions of lean participants had cirrhosis (22.6% vs 40.2% of non-lean participants), CVD history (9.0% vs 14.8% of nonlean participants), diabetes (32.6% vs 53.5% of non-lean participants), hypertension (47.8% vs 67.4% of non-lean participants), or dyslipidemia (54.0% vs 64.1% of non-lean participants). Asian participants had a lower prevalence of cirrhosis, history of CVD, cardiovascular events, and diabetes compared with non-Asians, independent of BMI category. After we adjusted for age, sex, and center type and site, the odds of NAFLD-associated cirrhosis in Asians who were lean was almost half the odds of NAFLD-associated cirrhosis in non-Asians who were lean (odds ratio, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.29-0.77).More than 10% participants in a cohort of persons with NAFLD in the United States are lean; Asians account for almost half of the lean persons with NAFLD. Lean participants had a lower prevalence of cirrhosis, CVD, and metabolic abnormalities than non-lean persons with NAFLD. Asian participants had a significantly lower prevalence of cirrhosis, CVD, and metabolic abnormalities than non-Asians in all BMI categories. ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT02815891.

Background & Aims Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis is a leading cause of end-stage liver disease. Hepatic steatosis and lipotoxicity cause chronic necroinflammation and direct hepatocellular injury resulting in cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. Emricasan is a pan-caspase inhibitor that inhibits excessive apoptosis and inflammation; it has also been shown to decrease portal pressure and improve synthetic function in mice with carbon tetrachloride-induced cirrhosis. Methods This double-blind, placebo-controlled study randomized 217 individuals with decompensated NASH cirrhosis 1:1:1 to emricasan (5 mg or 25 mg) or placebo. Patients were stratified by decompensation status and baseline model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score. The primary endpoint comprised all-cause mortality, a new decompensation event (new or recurrent variceal hemorrhage, new ascites requiring diuretics, new unprecipitated hepatic encephalopathy ≥grade 2, hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis), or an increase in MELD-Na score ≥4 points. Results There was no difference in event rates between either of the emricasan treatment groups and placebo, with hazard ratios of 1.02 (95% CI 0.59–1.77; p = 0.94) and 1.28 (95% CI 0.75–2.21; p = 0.37) for 5 mg and 25 mg of emricasan, respectively. MELD-Na score progression was the most common outcome. There was no significant effect of emricasan treatment on MELD-Na score, international normalized ratio, total serum bilirubin, albumin level or Child-Pugh score. Emricasan was generally safe and well-tolerated. Conclusions Emricasan was safe but ineffective for the treatment of decompensated NASH cirrhosis. However, this study may guide the design and conduct of future clinical trials in decompensated NASH cirrhosis. Lay summary Patients with decompensated cirrhosis related to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis are at high risk of additional decompensation events and death. Post hoc analyses in previous pilot studies suggested that emricasan might improve portal hypertension and liver function. In this larger randomized study, emricasan did not decrease the number of decompensation events or improve liver function in patients with a history of decompensated cirrhosis related to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03205345 .

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cause of human death. Mortality is primarily due to metastatic organ colonization, with the liver being the main organ affected. We modeled metastatic CRC (mCRC) liver colonization using patient-derived primary and metastatic tumor xenografts (PDX). Such PDX modeling predicted patient survival outcomes. In vivo selection of multiple PDXs for enhanced metastatic colonization capacity upregulated the gluconeogenic enzyme PCK1, which enhanced liver metastatic growth by driving pyrimidine nucleotide biosynthesis under hypoxia. Consistently, highly metastatic tumors upregulated multiple pyrimidine biosynthesis intermediary metabolites. Therapeutic inhibition of the pyrimidine biosynthetic enzyme DHODH with leflunomide substantially impaired CRC liver metastatic colonization and hypoxic growth. Our findings provide a potential mechanistic basis for the epidemiologic association of anti-gluconeogenic drugs with improved CRC metastasis outcomes, reveal the exploitation of a gluconeogenesis enzyme for pyrimidine biosynthesis under hypoxia, and implicate DHODH and PCK1 as metabolic therapeutic targets in CRC metastatic progression., eLife digest Colorectal cancer, also known as bowel cancer, is the second most deadly cancer in the United States, where it affects over 140,000 people each year. This cancer often spreads to the liver, in a process known as metastasis. To do this, the colorectal cancer cells must survive the low oxygen levels found in the blood that carries them from the gut to the liver, and in the liver itself. The majority of colorectal cancer cells that arrive in the liver die, but some survive leading to secondary tumors. To investigate how the colorectal cancer cells that survive and metastasize to the liver accomplish this feat, Yamaguchi, Weinberg, Nguyen et al. took colorectal tumors from patients and introduced them into mice. This showed that tumors from patients with the worst outcomes tended to metastasize more efficiently in mice. Next, Yamaguchi et al. looked to see which genes were active in the colorectal cancer cells that were able to metastasize and compared them to those that were active in the cells that could not. This analysis revealed that the gene coding for a protein called PCK1 was more active in the cells that could metastasize. In healthy cells, PCK1 promotes the generation of the sugar glucose, and Yamaguchi et al. observed that, in a low oxygen environment, higher levels of PCK1 allowed colorectal cancer cells to proliferate faster. Unexpectedly, this was due to PCK1 increasing the production of a molecule needed to make nucleotides, which are the building blocks for DNA and RNA. Consistent with this, metastasizing colorectal cancer cells generated more nucleotide precursors, and inhibiting the enzyme involved in nucleotide synthesis (DHODH) with an arthritis drug called leflunomide stopped colorectal cancer cells from spreading. Metastasizing colorectal cancer cells depend on PCK1 and the nucleotide-synthesizing enzyme to grow, so therapies that target these proteins may help more patients to survive this kind of cancer. The findings also suggest that the arthritis drug leflunomide should be explored further as a potential drug for the treatment of colorectal cancer.

Sarcoidosis is a multisystem inflammatory disease, which is characterized by the development of noncaseating granulomas amid healthy tissue. While most commonly affecting the mediastinum and/or lungs, sarcoid can also affect the liver, resulting in “hepatic sarcoid.” The spectrum of disease in hepatic sarcoid is variable, ranging from asymptomatic or mild liver enzyme abnormalities to end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation. Because clinically-significant hepatic sarcoid is rare, research on epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and treatment is limited. The mainstays of hepatic sarcoid treatment have involved steroids and more recently, ursodeoxycholic acid; however, novel immunomodulatory agents provide new possibilities for management. Questions remain regarding screening, diagnostic modalities, and what to treat with and when. The purpose of this review is to summarize the available research on the epidemiology, clinical course, and management of hepatic sarcoid, and identify gaps in our knowledge to motivate future research.

In recent years, most instances of humanitarian crises involving the large-scale killing of civilians have sparked debates regarding whether the event qualifies as genocide or can be justifiably compared to the Holocaust. These seemingly semantic arguments arise because both sides in the naming debate believe that the use of the word genocide or analogies to the Holocaust exert a powerful framing effect on public opinion and, ultimately, important policy decisions. Yet, virtually no evidence exists to demonstrate whether these words do, in fact, wield such power. In this article, we attempt to shed light on this question utilizing a controlled survey experiment conducted on a representative sample of American citizens. By systematically varying the terms used to describe a violent conflict, we isolate the effect of these terms on Americans' perceptions of the event. We find little evidence to support the consensus that the mere use of the word genocide or the Holocaust analogy exerts a powerful in...

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cause of human death. Mortality is primarily due to metastatic organ colonization, with liver being the primary organ affected. We modeled metastatic CRC (mCRC) liver colonization using patient-derived primary and metastatic tumor xenografts (PDX). Such PDX modeling predicted patient survival outcomes.In vivoselection of multiple PDXs for enhanced metastatic capacity upregulated the gluconeogenic enzyme PCK1, which enhanced metastatic hypoxic survival by driving anabolic pyrimidine nucleotide biosynthesis. Consistently, highly metastatic tumors upregulated multiple pyrimidine biosynthesis intermediary metabolites. Therapeutic inhibition of the pyrimidine biosynthetic enzyme DHODH with oral leflunomide substantially impaired CRC liver metastatic colonization and hypoxic survival. Our findings provide a potential mechanistic basis for the epidemiologic association of anti-gluconeogenic drugs with improved CRC metastasis outcomes, reveal the exploitation of a gluconeogenesis enzyme for pyrimidine biosynthesis during hypoxia, and implicate DHODH and PCK1 as metabolic therapeutic targets in colorectal cancer metastasis.

Background and aims Outcomes with anticoagulation (AC) are understudied in advanced liver disease. We investigated effects of AC with warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) on all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation as well as ischemic stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, splanchnic vein thrombosis, and bleeding in a cohort with cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (AF). Approach and results This was a retrospective, longitudinal study using national data of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis at 128 medical centers, including patients with cirrhosis with incident AF, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 followed through December 31, 2018. To assess the effects of AC on outcomes, we applied propensity score (PS) matching and marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for confounding by indication and time-dependent confounding. The final cohort included 2,694 veterans with cirrhosis with AF (n = 1,694 and n = 704 in the warfarin and DOAC cohorts after PS matching, respectively) with a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. All-cause mortality was lower with warfarin versus no AC (PS matched: hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.76; MSM models: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73) and DOACs versus no AC (PS matched: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93; MSM models: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81). In MSM models, warfarin (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.09-0.90) and DOACs (HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79) were associated with reduced ischemic stroke. In secondary analyses, bleeding was lower with DOACs compared to warfarin (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.94). Conclusions Warfarin and DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Warfarin was associated with more bleeding compared to no AC. DOACs had a lower incidence of bleeding compared to warfarin in exploratory analyses. Future studies should prospectively investigate these observed associations.

Background & aimsEarly liver transplantation (without requiring a minimum period of sobriety) for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is controversial: many centers delay eligibility until a specific period of sobriety (such as 6 months) has been achieved. To inform ongoing debate and policy, we modeled long-term outcomes of early vs delayed liver transplantation for patients with AH.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model to simulate early vs delayed liver transplantation for patients with severe AH and different amounts of alcohol use after transplantation: abstinence, slip (alcohol use followed by sobriety), or sustained use. Mortality of patients before transplantation was determined by joint-effect model (based on Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] and Lille scores). We estimated life expectancies of patients receiving early vs delayed transplantation (6-month wait before placement on the waitlist) and life years lost attributable to alcohol use after receiving the liver transplant.ResultsPatients offered early liver transplantation were estimated to have an average life expectancy of 6.55 life years, compared with an average life expectancy of 1.46 life years for patients offered delayed liver transplantation (4.49-fold increase). The net increase in life expectancy from offering early transplantation was highest for patients with Lille scores of 0.50-0.82 and MELD scores of 32 or more. Patients who were offered early transplantation and had no alcohol use afterward were predicted to survive 10.85 years compared with 3.62 years for patients with sustained alcohol use after transplantation (7.23life years lost). Compared with delayed transplantation, early liver transplantation increased survival times in all simulated scenarios and combinations of Lille and MELD scores.ConclusionsIn a modeling study of assumed carefullyselected patients with AH, early vs delayed liver transplantation (6months of abstinence from alcohol before transplantation) increased survival times of patients, regardless of estimated risk of sustained alcohol use after transplantation. These findings support early liver transplantation for patients with severe AH. The net increasein life expectancy was maintained in all simulated extreme scenarios but should be confirmed in prospective studies. Sustained alcohol use after transplantation significantly reduced but did not eliminate thebenefits of early transplantation. Strategies are needed toprevent and treat posttransplantation use of alcohol.