1. Before sentinel bleeding: early prediction of postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) with a CT-based scoring system
- Author
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Stefano Crippa, Giorgia Guazzarotti, Domenico Tamburrino, Roberta Cao, Simone Gusmini, Diego Palumbo, Massimo Falconi, Francesco De Cobelli, Stefano Partelli, Palumbo, D., Tamburrino, D., Partelli, S., Gusmini, S., Guazzarotti, G., Cao, R., Crippa, S., Falconi, M., and De Cobelli, F.
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medicine.medical_specialty ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Hemorrhage ,Dehiscence ,Pancreaticoduodenectomy ,030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging ,Pancreatic Fistula ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Pancreaticojejunostomy ,medicine ,Humans ,Postoperative hemorrhage ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,Risk factor ,Risk assessment ,Retrospective Studies ,Neuroradiology ,X-ray computed tomography ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,business.industry ,Retrospective cohort study ,Interventional radiology ,General Medicine ,medicine.disease ,Pancreatic fistula ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Radiology ,Tomography, X-Ray Computed ,business - Abstract
Objectives: Clinically significant pancreatic fistula (POPF) has been established as a well-known risk factor for late and severe postpancreatectomy hemorrhage after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (postpancreatectomy pancreatic fistula–associated hemorrhage [PPFH]). Our aim was to assess whether contrast-enhanced CT scan after PD is an effective tool for early prediction of PPFH. Methods: From a prospectively acquired database, all consecutive patients who underwent PD between January 2013 and May 2019 were identified; within this database, all patients who were evaluated, for clinical suspicion of POPF, with at least one contrast-enhanced CT scan examination, were enrolled in this retrospective study. The selected CT findings included perianastomotic fluid collections and air bubbles; pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ) was analyzed in terms of dehiscence and defect. Results: One hundred seventy-eight out of 953 PD patients (18.7%) suffered from clinically significant POPF; after exclusions, 166 patients were enrolled. Among this subset, 33 patients (19.9%) had at least one PPFH episode. In multivariable analysis, PPFH was associated with postoperative CT evidence of fluid collections (p = 0.046), air bubbles (p = 0.046), and posterior PJ defect (p < 0.001). Based on these findings, a practical 4-point prediction score was developed (AUC: 0.904, Se: 76%, Sp: 93.8%): patients with a score ≥ 3 demonstrated a significantly higher risk of PPFH development (OR = 45.6, 95% CI: 13.0–159.3). Conclusions: Postoperative CT scan permits early stratification of PPFH risk, thus providing an actual aid for patients’ management. Key Points: • Postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) is a dramatic, clinically unpredictable occurrence. • After pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), early identification of posterior pancreaticojejunostomy defect, perianastomotic air bubbles, and retroperitoneal fluid collections enables effective PPH risk stratification by means of a practical CT-based 4-point scoring system. • CT scan after PD allows a paradigm shift in the management PPH, from a conventional “wait and see” approach, to a more proactive one that relies on early anticipation and timely prevention.
- Published
- 2021
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