1. A deep learning-based evolutionary model for short-term wind speed forecasting: A case study of the Lillgrund offshore wind farm
- Author
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Ehsan Abbasnejad, Markus Wagner, Meysam Majidi Nezhad, Davide Astiaso Garcia, Mehdi Neshat, Seyedali Mirjalili, Lina Bertling Tjernberg, Bradley Alexander, Neshat, Mehdi, Nezhad, Meysam Majidi, Abbasnejad, Ehsan, Mirjalili, Seyedali, Tjernberg, Lina Bertling, Astiaso Garcia, Davide, Alexande, Bradley, and Wagner, Markus
- Subjects
Computer science ,020209 energy ,Evolutionary algorithm ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,generalised normal distribution optimisation ,02 engineering and technology ,Turbine ,Wind speed ,wind speed prediction ,020401 chemical engineering ,short-term forecasting ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,0204 chemical engineering ,evolutionary algorithms ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Wind power ,Artificial neural network ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Deep learning ,deep learning models ,hybrid evolutionary deep learning method ,Term (time) ,Offshore wind power ,Fuel Technology ,Nuclear Energy and Engineering ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,Marine engineering - Abstract
Due to expanding global environmental issues and growing energy demand, wind power technologies have been studied extensively. Accurate and robust short-term wind speed forecasting is crucial for large-scale integration of wind power generation into the power grid. However, the seasonal and stochastic characteristics of wind speed make forecasting a challenging task. This study adopts a novel hybrid deep learning-based evolutionary approach in an attempt to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. This hybrid model consists of a bidirectional long short-term memory neural network, an effective hierarchical evolutionary decomposition technique and an improved generalised normal distribution optimisation algorithm for hyper-parameter tuning. The proposed hybrid approach was trained and tested on data gathered from an offshore wind turbine installed in a Swedish wind farm located in the Baltic Sea with two forecasting horizons: ten-minutes ahead and one-hour ahead. The experimental results indicated that the new approach is superior to six other applied machine learning models and a further seven hybrid models, as measured by seven performance criteria. The proposed hybrid approach was trained and tested on data gathered from an offshore wind turbine installed in a Swedish wind farm located in the Baltic Sea with two forecasting horizons: ten-minutes ahead and one-hour ahead. The experimental results indicated that the new approach is superior to six other applied machine learning models and a further seven hybrid models, as measured by seven performance criteria. Refereed/Peer-reviewed
- Published
- 2021