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Context Assessing temporal changes in the recorded diagnostic rates, incidence proportions, and health outcomes of substance-related disorders (SRD) can inform public health policymakers in reducing harms associated with alcohol and other drugs. Objective To report the annual and cumulative recorded diagnostic rates and incidence proportions of SRD, as well as mortality rate ratios (MRRs) by cause of death among this group in Canada, according to their province of residence. Methods Analyses were performed on linked administrative health databases (AHD; physician claims, hospitalizations, and vital statistics) in five Canadian provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, and Nova Scotia). Canadians 12 years and older and registered for their provincial healthcare coverage were included. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes) was used for case identification of SRD from April 2001 to March 2018. Results During the study period, the annual recorded SRD diagnostic rates increased in Alberta (2001–2002: 8.0‰; 2017–2018: 12.8‰), Ontario (2001–2002: 11.5‰; 2017–2018: 14.4‰), and Nova Scotia (2001–2002: 6.4‰; 2017–2018: 12.7‰), but remained stable in Manitoba (2001–2002: 5.5‰; 2017–2018: 5.4‰) and Québec (2001–2002 and 2017–2018: 7.5‰). Cumulative recorded SRD diagnostic rates increased steadily for all provinces. Recorded incidence proportions increased significantly in Alberta (2001–2002: 4.5‰; 2017–2018: 5.0‰) and Nova Scotia (2001–2002: 3.3‰; 2017–2018: 3.8‰), but significantly decreased in Ontario (2001–2002: 6.2‰; 2017–2018: 4.7‰), Québec (2001–2002: 4.1‰; 2017–2018: 3.2‰) and Manitoba (2001–2002: 2.7‰; 2017–2018: 2.0‰). For almost all causes of death, a higher MRR was found among individuals with recorded SRD than in the general population. The causes of death in 2015–2016 with the highest MRR for SRD individuals were SRD, suicide, and non-suicide trauma in Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba, and Québec. Discussion Linked AHD covering almost the entire population can be useful to monitor the medical service trends of SRD and, therefore, guide health services planning in Canadian provinces., Contexte Évaluer les changements temporels des taux diagnostiques enregistrés, les proportions de l’incidence et les résultats de santé des troubles liés aux substances (TLS) peut informer les décideurs de la santé publique dans la réduction des méfaits associés à l’alcool et autres drogues. Objectif Faire rapport sur les taux diagnostiques enregistrés annuels et cumulatifs et les proportions de l’incidence des TLS, ainsi que les rapports des taux de mortalité (RTM) par cause de décès au sein de ce groupe au Canada, selon leur province de résidence. Méthodes Des analyses ont été exécutées sur des bases de données de santé administratives couplées (réclamations de médecins, hospitalisations, statistiques vitales) dans cinq provinces canadiennes (Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, et Nouvelle-Écosse). Des Canadiens de 12 ans et plus inscrits à leur assurance-santé provinciale étaient inclus. La Classification internationale des maladies (CIM-9 ou −10 codes) a servi à l’identification de cas de TLS d’avril 2001 à mars 2018. Résultats Durant la période de l’étude, les taux diagnostiques de TLS enregistrés annuellement ont augmenté en Alberta (2001–2002 : 8,0 ‰; 2017–2018 : 12,8 ‰), en Ontario (2001–2002 : 11,5 ‰; 2017–2018 : 14,4 ‰), et en Nouvelle-Écosse (2001–2002 : 6,4 ‰; 2017–2018: 12,7 ‰), mais sont demeurés stables au Manitoba (2001–2002 : 5,5 ‰; 2017–2018 : 5,4 ‰) et au Québec (2001–2002 et 2017–2018 : 7,5 ‰). Les taux diagnostiques de TLS cumulatifs enregistrés ont augmenté régulièrement pour toutes les provinces. Les proportions de l’incidence enregistrées se sont accrues significativement en Alberta (2001–2002 : 4,5 ‰; 2017–2018 : 5,0 ‰) et en Nouvelle-Écosse (2001–2002 : 3,3 ‰; 2017–2018 : 3,8 ‰), mais ont significativement diminué en Ontario (2001–2002 : 6,2 ‰; 2017–2018 : 4,7 ‰), au Québec (2001–2002 : 4,1 ‰; 2017–2018 : 3,2 ‰) et au Manitoba (2001–2002 : 2,7 ‰; 2017–2018 : 2,0 ‰). Pour presque toutes les causes de décès, des RTM plus élevés ont été constatés chez les personnes ayant des TLS enregistrés que dans la population générale. Les causes de décès en 2015–2016 avec les RTM les plus élevés pour les personnes présentant de TLS étaient les TLS, le suicide, et les traumatismes de non-suicide en Alerta, en Ontario, au Manitoba, et au Québec. Discussion Les bases de données de santé administratives jumelées qui couvrent presque la population en entier peuvent être utiles pour surveiller les tendances des services médicaux de TLS et par conséquent, guider la planification des services de santé dans les provinces canadiennes.

The relationship between testosterone and premature mortality has caused recent controversy. While previous studies have demonstrated mixed results, this is partly because of variable patient populations, different testosterone thresholds, and the use of antiquated techniques to measure serum testosterone. Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey we analyzed a cohort representative of men in the USA to explore the relationship between serum testosterone and premature mortality using contemporary guidelines and testosterone measurements. We found that men with low testosterone (

Background: There are longstanding concerns regarding physical health inequalities for people with psychotic disorders. In recent years concerted efforts have been made to address these. \ud Aims: To examine whether recent national initiatives in England have led to improvements in the physical health of people with schizophrenia and related psychoses. \ud Methods: Secondary analysis of data from multiple rounds of a national audit of services for people with psychosis, conducted over a 9-year period. Proportions of patients in ‘good health’ according to seven discrete measures, and one composite measure derived from national standards, were compared between each round of the audit. \ud Results: The proportion of patients in overall ‘good health’ under the care of ‘Early Intervention in Psychosis’ (EIP) teams increased between 2014 and 2019 (OR=4.65, 95% CI 3.32 to 6.52, P

Resumen: Objetivo: Describir un sistema de vigilancia y monitorización basado en el análisis de la tasa de incidencia de la incapacidad permanente (IP) y la mortalidad prematura (MP) en una muestra de afiliados/as a la Seguridad Social española. Método: Estudio de tres cohortes de nacimiento (1950-1959, 1960-1969 y 1970-1979) de personas afiliadas al régimen general de la Seguridad Social, incluidas en la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales, que han estado activas al menos un día entre 2004 y 2015 (N = 753.341). Para cada cohorte se estimaron las tasas anuales de incidencia de IP y MP según la ocupación y la actividad económica, y en hombres y mujeres por separado. Resultados: Entre 2004 y 2015, las tasas de IP y MP mostraron valores más altos en los hombres que en las mujeres en prácticamente todas las cohortes de nacimiento, ocupaciones y actividades económicas. La tendencia durante el periodo de observación fue creciente, tanto en la incidencia de IP como de MP en hombres y mujeres, para las tres cohortes de nacimiento y para todas las categorías ocupacionales. Conclusiones: Los resultados que se derivan de este trabajo permiten monitorizar de manera continua la evolución temporal de la incidencia de la incapacidad permanente y de la mortalidad prematura en una muestra representativa de afiliados/as a la Seguridad Social. Abstract: Objective: To describe a surveillance and monitoring system based on the analysis of the incidence rate of permanent disability (PD) and premature mortality (PM) in a sample of members of the Spanish Social Security. Method: Study of three birth cohorts (1950-1959, 1960-1969 and 1970-1979) of people affiliated to the general Social Security system, included in the Continuous Sample of Labour Lives, who has been active for at least one day between 2004 and 2015 (N = 753,341). For each cohort, the annual incidence rates of PD and MP were estimated according to occupation and economic activity in women and men. Results: Between 2004 and 2015 the rates of PI and MP showed higher values in men with respect to women in practically all cohorts of births, occupations and economic activities groups. The trend throughout the observation period was increasing, both in the incidence of PD and PM in men and women, for the three birth cohorts and for all occupational categories. Conclusions: The results derived from this work allows the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of the incidence of permanent disability and premature mortality in a representative sample of social security affiliates.

In this article, we carry out the cost-analysis of the total premature mortality and avoidable causes of death for Moldova by applying the human capital approach. The results show that the indirect costs of avoidable mortality represent slightly over 85% of total economic losses due to premature mortality in Moldova. The highest economic losses are due to injuries, cardiovascular diseases, and alcohol and drug-related deaths. For males, the leading cause is represented by injuries, whereas for females the two leading causes include cardiovascular diseases and alcohol and drug-related deaths. The results of this study can be used for a cost-benefit analysis to design economic mitigation strategies aimed at lowering the avoidable mortality in Moldova.

Background The main underlying risk factors associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) are modifiable and oxidative injury and systemic inflammatory damage represent key aetiological factors associated with the development and progression of CHD and premature mortality. Objective To examine associations of plasma antioxidant status with all-cause mortality and fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events. Design The PRIME study prospectively evaluated 9709 men aged 50–59 years between 1991 and 1993 in Northern Ireland and France who were free of CHD at recruitment and followed annually for deaths and cardiovascular events for 10 years. Serum concentrations of vitamin C, retinol, two forms of vitamin E (α- and γ-tocopherol) and six carotenoids were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography. Baseline conventional risk factors were considered, as well as socioeconomic differences and lifestyle behaviours including diet, smoking habit, physical activity, and alcohol consumption through Cox regression analyses. Results At 10 years, there were 538 deaths from any cause and 440 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events. After adjustment for country, age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, body mass index, cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, height, total physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking habit, higher levels of all antioxidants were associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality, with the exception of γ-tocopherol. Only retinol was significantly associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular events in a fully adjusted model. Conclusions Low antioxidant levels contribute to the gradient of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular incidence independent of lifestyle behaviours and traditional cardiovascular and socioeconomic risk factors.

Purpose of the study. To conduct a comparative analysis of the mortality from malignant neoplasms (MNs) detected during the implementation of the oncological component of National Prevention Programme named Dispensarization of certain groups of the adult population (DCGAP) according to the data of the Arkhangelsk Regional Cancer Registry (ARCR) for the period from 2006 to 2019. Materials and methods. Anonymous data about patients with malignant neoplasms of the colon, rectum, lung, breast, cervix, uterus, ovaries, prostate gland, kidney undergoing examination (screening) at the first stage of the DCGAP from 2006 to 2019 were extracted from the ARCR database. We compared the averaged crude and age-standardized (WHO world standard 2001) mortality rates in the periods before (2006–2012) and after the implementation of DCGAP (2013–2019) in the entire population, as well as in men and women and in age groups 15–59 years old for males and 15–55 years old for the female population ("mortality at working age") and 30–69 years old ("premature mortality"). A segmented analysis of the mortality rates was carried out. The interventional value of the DCGAP was positive in the case of a decrease in the linear trend in mortality between 2013 and 2017. Results. A total of 33,824 deaths were included in the analysis. 25106 (74.2%) patients died from iMN, the proportion of deaths from other causes varied from 14% for lung cancer to 83% for cervical and prostate cancer. The crude mortality rate after the introduction of DCGAP increased for all iMNs, except for cervical cancer, while age standardized rate only for cancers of the uterus and prostate. In lung cancer, there was a decrease in age-standardized mortality rates for men from 64.7 to 60.3 per 100,000 population and an increase from 5.1 to 6.5 per 100,000 for women. Mortality rates “at working age” were low for all iMNs except for cervical and breast cancers and did not differ between periods; “premature mortality” decreased only in lung cancer in men from 40.1 to 36.2 per 100,000 population, with other iMNs differences between periods were not revealed. Segmented analysis revealed no significant changes in mortality trends. Conclusion. There was no decrease in mortality among all nine iMNs in the period after the introduction of DCGAP, which is probably due to increased incidence and insufficient follow-up for later period. A comparative analysis of survival is required.

IntroductionDisadvantaged socioeconomic position (SEP) in early and adult life has been repeatedly associated with premature mortality. However, it is unclear whether these inequalities differ across time, nor if they are consistent across different SEP indicators.MethodsBritish birth cohorts born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 were used, and multiple SEP indicators in early and adult life were examined. Deaths were identified via national statistics or notifications. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between ridit scored SEP indicators and all-cause mortality risk—from 26 to 43 years (n=40 784), 26 to 58 years (n=35 431) and 26 to 70 years (n=5353).ResultsMore disadvantaged SEP was associated with higher mortality risk—magnitudes of association were similar across cohort and each SEP indicator. For example, HRs (95% CI) from 26 to 43 years comparing lowest to highest paternal social class were 2.74 (1.02 to 7.32) in 1946c, 1.66 (1.03 to 2.69) in 1958c, and 1.94 (1.20 to 3.15) in 1970c. Paternal social class, adult social class and housing tenure were each independently associated with mortality risk.ConclusionsSocioeconomic circumstances in early and adult life show persisting associations with premature mortality from 1971 to 2016, reaffirming the need to address socioeconomic factors across life to reduce inequalities in survival to older age.

Objectives Health region differences in immigration patterns and premature mortality rates exist in Ontario, Canada. This study used linked population-based databases to describe the regional proportion of immigrants in the context of provincial health region variation in premature mortality. Methods We analyzed all adult premature deaths in Ontario from 1992 to 2012 using linked population files, Canadian census, and death registry databases. Geographic boundaries were analyzed according to 14 health service regions, known as Local Health Integration Networks (LHINs). We assessed the role of immigrant status and regional proportion of immigrants in the context of these health region variations and assessed the contribution using sex-specific multilevel negative binomial models, accounting for age, individual- and area-level immigration, and area-level material deprivation. Results We observed significant premature mortality variation among health service regions in Ontario between 1992 and 2012. Average annual rates ranged across LHINs from 3.03 to 6.40 per 1000 among males and 2.04 to 3.98 per 1000 among females. The median rate ratio (RR) decreased for men from 1.14 (95% CI 1.06, 1.19) to 1.07 (95% CI 1.00, 1.11) after adjusting for year, age, area-based material deprivation, and individual- and area-level immigration, and among females reduced from 1.13 (95% CI 1.05, 1.18) to 1.04 (95% CI 1.00, 1.05). These adjustments explained 84.1% and 94.4% of the LHIN-level variation in males and females respectively. Reduced premature mortality rates were associated with immigrants compared with those for long-term residents in the fully adjusted models for both males 0.43 (95% CI 0.42, 0.44) and females 0.45 (0.44, 0.46). Conclusion The findings demonstrate that health region differences in premature mortality in Ontario are in part explained by individual-level effects associated with the health advantage of immigrants, as well as contextual area-level effects that are associated with regional differences in the immigrant population. These factors should be considered in addition to health system factors when looking at health region variation in premature deaths.

The intensity of premature deaths in the Łódź region in 2014 amounted to 40 per 10 000, and was the highest in the country (the average rate for Poland was 32). Excess mortality of men aged65 continues to be a major medical and social problem. The aim of the study is to analyze time trends of excess male mortality in the working age population in the Łódź region, both in general and due to the most important causes of deaths.The research material consists of information on 144 589 deaths of the Łódź region inhabitants aged 20-64 in 1999-2014. Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated, as well as excess male mortality rates both in general and by cause of death. Standardization was carried out using the direct method according to the standard European population. A study of time trends was performed with the use of the joinpoint regression analysis. Average annual percentage rates of changes were estimated.The excess mortality rate of men at the productive age decreased from 2.9 to 2.8 in the Łódź region in 1999-2014. The most important causes of death among men aged 20-64 in 2014 were (rates per 10 000): cardiovascular diseases (19.1), malignant neoplasms (16.6) and external causes of death (12.3). Among women, the most significant were malignant neoplasms (11.1), cardiovascular diseases (5.1) and diseases of the digestive system (2.1). The excess mortality rate of men aged 20-64 in the analyzed period reached the highest values due to external causes of death (5.1-7.3) and cardiovascular diseases (3.0-3.7). The highest rate of the decline in excess male mortality in 1999-2014 was recorded due to malignant neoplasms, on average 1.4% per year (p0.05). Meanwhile, the fastest growth concerned external causes of death, on average 1.0% per year (p0.05).Despite the decline in the mortality rates among both sexes, excess male mortality due to external causes of death and cardiovascular diseases increased. Med Pr. 2020;71(3):325-35.W 2014 r. natężenie przedwczesnych zgonów w województwie łódzkim wynosiło 40 na 10 000 osób i było najwyższe w kraju (średnia dla Polski: 32). Nadumieralność mężczyzn przed 65 r.ż. pozostaje poważnym problemem medycznym i społecznym. Celem pracy była analiza trendów czasowych nadumieralności mężczyzn w wieku produkcyjnym w województwie łódzkim ogółem i według najważniejszych przyczyn zgonów. Celem pracy jest analiza trendów czasowych nadumieralności mężczyzn w wieku produkcyjnym w województwie łódzkim ogółem i według najważniejszych przyczyn zgonów.Materiał badawczy stanowią dane o 144 589 zgonach mieszkańców województwa łódzkiego w wieku 20–64 lat w latach 1999–2014. Obliczono rzeczywiste i standaryzowane współczynniki umieralności, a także wskaźniki nadumieralności mężczyzn ogółem i według przyczyn. Do standaryzacji posłużyła metoda bezpośrednia według standardowej populacji europejskiej. Badanie trendów czasowych przeprowadzono za pomocą analizy regresji joinpoint. Oszacowano średnioroczne procentowe tempa zmian.W latach 1999–2014 w województwie łódzkim wskaźnik nadumieralności mężczyzn w wieku produkcyjnym zmniejszył się z 2,9 do 2,8. W 2014 r. głównymi przyczynami zgonów mężczyzn w wieku 20–64 lat były choroby układu krążenia (19,1 na 10 000 osób), nowotwory złośliwe (16,6) i przyczyny zewnętrzne (12,3). U kobiet były nimi nowotwory złośliwe (11,1), choroby układu krążenia (5,1) i choroby układu trawiennego (2,1). W badanym okresie wskaźnik nadumieralności mężczyzn w wieku 20–64 lat osiągał najwyższe wartości z powodu zewnętrznych przyczyn zgonu (5,1–7,3) i chorób układu krążenia (3,0–3,7). Największe tempo spadku wskaźnika nadumieralności w latach 1999–2014 odnotowano w przypadku nowotworów złośliwych, średnio 1,4% rocznie (p0,05). Najszybszy wzrost dotyczył natomiast zewnętrznych przyczyn zgonu, średnio 1,0% rocznie (p0,05).Mimo redukcji natężenia zgonów w obu grupach płci zwiększyła się nadumieralność mężczyzn z powodu zewnętrznych przyczyn zgonu i chorób układu krążenia. Med. Pr. 2020;71(3):325–335.

Background The concept of “premature mortality” is at the heart of many national and global health measurement and benchmarking efforts. However, despite the intuitive appeal of its underlying concept, it is far from obvious how to best operationalise it. The previous work offers at least two basic approaches: an absolute and a relative one. The former—and far more widely used— approach sets a unique age threshold (e.g. 65 years), below which deaths are defined as premature. The relative approach derives the share of premature deaths from the country-specific age distribution of deaths in the country of interest. The biggest disadvantage of the absolute approach is that of using a unique, arbitrary threshold for different mortality patterns, while the main disadvantage of the relative approach is that its estimate of premature mortality strongly depends on how the senescent deaths distribution is defined in each country. Method We propose to overcome some of the downsides of the existing approaches, by combining features of both, using a hierarchical model, in which senescent deaths distribution is held constant for each country as a pivotal quantity and the premature mortality distribution is allowed to vary across countries. In this way, premature mortality estimates become more comparable across countries with similar characteristics. Results The proposed hierarchical models provide results, which appear to align with related evidence from specific countries. In particular, we find a relatively high premature mortality for the United States and Denmark. Conclusions While our hybrid approach overcomes some of the problems of previous measures, some issues require further research, in particular the choice of the group of countries that a given country is assigned to and the choice of the benchmarks within the groups. Hence, our proposed method, combined with further study addressing these issues, could provide a valid alternative way to measure and compare premature mortality across countries.

Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate age-sex standardized death rates (ASDR) from all causes from 2011 to 2015 among people who have accessed opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and compare rates living in the Northern and Southern areas of Ontario. Methods Routinely collected administrative health data was used to calculate crude death rates and age-sex standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 1,000,000 population of individuals who accessed OAT and compared the rates geographically from 2011 to 2015. The weighted ASDRs for each year were calculated by using the mid-year population of these regions. The rate ratios were calculated considering the base year as 2011. Results A total of 55,924 adults who accessed OAT were included between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2015. The majority of patients in the cohort - 52.3% - were between 15 and 34 years old, 32.5% were female, 11.3% were in the lowest income group, 71.1% lived in Southern areas. Overall, the ASDR steadily increased during the study period and spiked in 2015. We found that among individuals who had accessed OAT, living in Southern Ontario was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those living in Northern Ontario. ASDR for Northern Ontario was 20.0 (95% confidence interval (CI)= 10.2-34.2) in 2011, and 103.5(95%CI=78.5-133.5) in 2015, which was a five-fold increase from 2011. Whereas in Southern Ontario, ASDR in 2011 was 13.8 (95% CI= 11.5-16.5), and in 2015 ASDR was 60.8 (95%CI=55.8-66.1), which was only a 4-fold increase from 2011 Conclusion Our findings demonstrate evidence of a steadily increasing ASDR among individuals who accessed OAT with higher rates in Northern areas of the province before the era of synthetic opioids in Ontario, Canada.

Introduction. Cardiovascular diseases are recognized as worldwide (1) and national public health issue (2, 3). This is argued by having a leading position in the structure of general mortality and disability, the substantial loss of quality of life and the health system needs for increased costs. Prevention and control of cardiovascular disease has become one of the priority directions for global and national noncommunicable disease control strategies developed to reduce premature mortality (1, 5). The major cardiovascular diseases mortality was identified some aspects of premature mortality among the adult population in the Republic of Moldova. Overall decrease of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among adults (-5.9%) has been accompanied by a relatively slower decrease in premature mortality (-2.4%) in the Republic of Moldova (6). Primary, secondary and tertiary prevention measures are essential in reducing the burden of cardiovascular disease and contribute to improving cardiovascular health at the population level. Nature is helping people to maintain their health through mechanisms much closer to them than pharmaceutical ones through the curative action of the various natural factors that form the climate of the respective territorial area. Material and method. There is a descriptive study based on statistical data of the World Health Organization and official vital statistics of the Republic of Moldova. Results and discussions. The climatic conditions of Moldova are favorable to cardiovascular prevention and rehabilitation. Moldova is located in the temperate continental climate influenced by the proximity of the Black Sea and the interference of warm-humid air from the Mediterranean. The annual air temperatures average in the country is 9,30C. In the Republic of Moldova the warm weather with a confortable temperature lasts 175 days and the relative humidity oscillates in the average from 66 to 87%. The country's thermal regime is the most important curative factor for treating chronic diseases and opportunity for the amplification of medical rehabilitation programs for patients with cardiovascular diseases. Application of methods based on the action of climatic factors in cardiovascular rehabilitation process contributes to its efficiency. Increasing the role of tertiary prevention is a good practice for the quality improvement of medical services for this category of patients. By making appropriate, timely and complex measures of primary, secondary and tertiary prevention cardiovascular disease can be substantially prevented. Conclusions. Strengthening cardiovascular prevention centered on a complex approach to all its primary, secondary, and tertiary components is an opportunity to reduce premature mortality in the population. Key words: Cardiovascular diseases, prevention, premature mortality

Background The incidence and associated risk factors for premature death were investigated in a population-based cohort study in Iran. Methods A total of 7245 participants (3216 men), aged 30–70 years, were included. We conducted Cox proportional hazards models to identify the risk factors for premature death. For each risk factor, hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated. Results After a median follow-up of 13.8 years, 262 premature deaths (153 in men) occurred. Underlying causes of premature deaths were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n = 126), cancer (n = 51), road injuries (n = 15), sepsis and pneumonia (n = 9) and miscellaneous reasons (n = 61). The age-standardized incident rate of premature death was 2.35 per 1000 person years based on WHO standard population. Hypertension [HR 1.40, 95% CI (1.07–1.83)], diabetes (2.53, 1.94–3.29) and current smoking (1.58, 1.16–2.17) were significant risk factors for premature mortality; corresponding PAFs were 12.3, 22.4 and 9.2%, respectively. Overweight (body mass index (BMI): 25–29.9 kg/m2) (0.65, 0.49–0.87) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) (0.67, 0.48–0.94) were associated with decreased premature mortality. After replacing general adiposity with central adiposity, we found no significant risk for the latter (0.92, 0.71–1.18). Moreover, when we excluded current smokers, those with prevalent cancer/cardiovascular disease and those with survival of less than 3 years, the inverse association between overweight (0.59, 0.39–0.88) and obesity (0.67, 0.43–1.04), generally remained unchanged; although, diabetes still showed a significant risk (2.62, 1.84–3.72). Conclusions Controlling three modifiable risk factors including diabetes, hypertension and smoking might potentially reduce mortality events by over 40%, and among these, prevention of diabetes should be prioritized to decrease burden of events. We didn’t confirm a negative impact of overweight and obesity status on premature mortality events.

„Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy“ (SUDEP) ist der plötzliche, unerwartete Tod eines Epilepsiepatienten, der unter „gutartigen“ Umständen und ohne typische Todesursachen auftritt. SUDEP betrifft alle Epilepsiepatienten. Das individuelle Risiko hängt vor allem von Merkmalen der Epilepsie und Anfälle sowie von Lebensumständen ab. Fokale zu bilateral bzw. generalisierte tonisch-klonische Anfälle (TKA), nächtliche Anfälle und fehlende nächtliche Überwachung erhöhen das Risiko. In den meisten SUDEP-Fällen kommt es nach TKA zu einer fatalen Kaskade mit Apnoe, Hypoxämie und Asystolie. Wahrscheinlich könnten zwei Drittel der SUDEP-Fälle bei nicht überwachten Epilepsiepatienten mit TKA verhindert werden. Mobile Geräte („wearables“) können nächtliche TKA erkennen und Hilfspersonen benachrichtigen. Eine SUDEP-Aufklärung wird von den meisten Patienten und Angehörigen gewünscht, beeinflusst Therapieadhärenz und Verhalten günstig und hat keine negativen Auswirkungen auf Stimmung oder Lebensqualität. Empfehlungen der Kommission „Patientensicherheit“ der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Epileptologie: Therapieziel ist Anfallsfreiheit. Wenn dies nicht möglich ist, soll versucht werden, zumindest TKA zu kontrollieren. Alle Epilepsiepatienten und ihre Angehörigen sollen über SUDEP und Risikofaktoren aufgeklärt werden. Patienten und Angehörige sollen über Maßnahmen informiert werden, die einem erhöhten Risiko bzw. einem drohenden SUDEP entgegenwirken. Die Aufklärung soll in einem persönlichen Gespräch erfolgen, bei Diagnosestellung oder später. Die Aufklärung sollte dokumentiert werden. Wearables zur Detektion von TKA können empfohlen werden. Bei persistierenden TKA sollen Therapieversuche zur Anfallskontrolle fortgeführt werden. Nach SUDEP sollten Hinterbliebene kontaktiert werden. Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the sudden and unexpected death of an epilepsy patient, which occurs under benign circumstances without evidence of typical causes of death. SUDEP concerns all epilepsy patients. The individual risk depends on the characteristics of the epilepsy and seizures as well as on living conditions. Focal to bilateral and generalized tonic-clonic seizures (TCS), nocturnal seizures and lack of nocturnal supervision increase the risk. Most SUDEP cases are due to a fatal cascade of apnea, hypoxemia and asystole in the aftermath of a TCS. Two thirds of SUDEP cases in unsupervised epilepsy patients with TCS could probably be prevented. Wearables can detect TCS and alert caregivers. SUDEP information is desired by most patients and relatives, has a favorable impact on treatment adherence and behavior and has no negative effects on mood and quality of life. Recommendations of the committee on patient safety of the German Society of Epileptology: the ultimate treatment goal is seizure freedom. If this cannot be achieved, control of TCS should be sought. All epilepsy patients and their relatives should be informed about SUDEP and risk factors. Patients and relatives should be informed about measures to counteract the elevated risk and imminent SUDEP. The counselling should be performed during a face-to-face discussion, at the time of first diagnosis or during follow-up visits. The counselling should be documented. Wearables for TCS detection can be recommended. If TCS persist, therapeutic efforts should be continued. The bereaved should be contacted after a SUDEP.

Resumen Introducción: Las lesiones por causa externa son uno de los principales problemas de salud pública en el mundo, y la metodología estandarizada de carga de enfermedad a través de los años de vida saludable perdidos (AVISAS) permite conocer el estado de salud poblacional y priorizar acciones. Objetivo: Determinar la carga de enfermedad en términos de discapacidad y muerte como consecuencia de lesiones por causas externas en Bucaramanga, 2017. Diseño metodológico: Estudio descriptivo de carga de la enfermedad. Se estimó los AVISAS producidos por LCE utilizando las bases de datos del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas, Sistema de Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Pública y Registro Individual de la Prestación de Servicios de Salud, del año 2017, de la ciudad de Bucaramanga. Resultados: Se estimó una carga global de enfermedad por LCE de 12,04 AVISAS por cada 1000 personas; 0,51 AVISAS atribuibles a discapacidad y 11,53 AVISAS, a mortalidad. Las agresiones y accidentes de tránsito (AT) son las dos principales LCE con mayor número de AVISAS. En la población de 5-59 años las agresiones y AT presentan AVISAS por mortalidad de mayor peso; los AT son la principal causa externa en la población de 60 a 79 años y la segunda en mayores de 80 años. Conclusiones: Considerando que los AT fueron la causa externa con las más altas AVISAS atribuidas a mortalidad prematura, se recomienda implementar o intensificar estrategias de alto impacto que contribuyan a disminuir los AT. Abstract Introduction: Injuries due to external causes are one of the main worldwide public health problems. The standardized methodology to evaluate burden diseases through the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) allows us to know the health condition in a population and prioritize actions. Objective: To determine the burden of disease in terms of disability and death as consequence of injuries due to external causes in Bucaramanga, 2017. Methodology: Descriptive study was conducted. The DALYs produced by injuries due to external causes were estimated using information from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, the National Public Health Surveillance System and the Individual Registry of Service Provision of Health databases from 2017 for the city of Bucaramanga, Colombia. Results: The global burden of diseases due to external causes was estimated at 12.04 DALYs per 1000 inhabitants; 0.51 DALYs were attributed to disability and 11.53 DALYs to mortality. Assaults and road traffic accident injuries (RTAI) were the main external causes with higher DALYs. In the population between 5 and 59 years old, assaults and RTAI had the highest DALYs attributed to mortality. RTAI were the first external cause of DALYSs in the population between 60 and 79 years old, and the second cause in the population older than 80 years. Conclusion: Considering that RTAI was the external cause with the highest DALYs attributed to premature mortality, it is recommended to implement or intensify high-impact strategies to reduce RTAI.

Waclaw Moryson, Barbara Stawinska-Witoszynska Department of Epidemiology and Hygiene, Chair of Social Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznan, 60-806, Wielkopolska, PolandCorrespondence: Waclaw Moryson Email waclawmoryson@onet.euIntroduction: Although in Poland at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, tobacco consumption per capita was one of the highest in the world as a result of specific political and social conditions, nicotinism was the most common preventable cause of death that reduced life expectancy by 10 years on average. The aim of this study is to determine the level of premature mortality and its trends by age and sex for tobacco-related malignancies in Poland in the years 2008– 2017.Methods: The standardised premature mortality rates as well as mortality rates for five-year age ranges according to the patients’ sex were used. The Joinpoint model was used to determine the time trends.Results: Premature mortality due to all tobacco-dependent cancers analysed decreased in Poland throughout the analysed period in both male (2.5% per year) and female (1% per year) populations. A detailed analysis of individual diseases showed that a decrease in premature mortality was observed for almost all malignancies with the exception of malignant liver cancer among males, malignant oesophageal cancer among females and malignant lip, oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer in both sexes. The reduction in mortality from all tobacco-related cancers in the male population was greatest between 40 and 44 years of age, reaching 5.6% year on year. Similarly, in the case of females, the decline in mortality was greater in the younger age cohorts and decreased in those aged over 50.Conclusion: The favourable phenomenon of decreasing the level of premature mortality caused by tobacco-related malignancies may be associated, among others, with the policy of primary prevention of these diseases in the form of a widespread ban on smoking in public places, intensive information campaigns on the harmfulness of tobacco smoking and increasing taxation on tobacco products.Keywords: premature mortality, cancer, smoking, epidemiology

Context Prednisolone has been recommended rather than hydrocortisone for glucocorticoid replacement in adrenal insufficiency due its longer duration of action and lower cost. Objective To determine mortality rates with prednisolone versus hydrocortisone. Methods In this observational study, we used data extracted from a UK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to measure the relative mortality of patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency, who were treated with either prednisolone or hydrocortisone, and control individuals who were individually matched for age, sex, period, and place of follow-up. Results As expected, mortality in adrenal insufficiency irrespective of cause was increased, based on 5478 patients (4228 on hydrocortisone; 1250 on prednisolone) and 54 314 controls (41 934 and 12 380, respectively). Overall, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was similar with the 2 treatments (prednisolone, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.54-2.01] vs hydrocortisone 1.69 [1.57-1.82]; P = 0.65). This was also the case for secondary adrenal insufficiency. In primary disease (1405 on hydrocortisone vs 137 on prednisolone; 13 965 and 1347 controls, respectively), prednisolone users were older, more likely to have another autoimmune disease and malignancy, and less likely to have mineralocorticoid replacement. Nevertheless, after adjustment, the HR for prednisolone-treated patients remained higher than for those taking hydrocortisone (2.92 [2.19-3.91] vs 1.90 [1.66-2.16]; P = 0.0020). Conclusion In primary but not in secondary adrenal insufficiency, mortality was higher with prednisolone. The study was large, but the number of prednisolone-treated patients was small, and they had greater risk factors. Nonetheless, the increased mortality associated with prednisolone persisted despite statistical adjustment. Further evidence is needed regarding the long-term safety of prednisolone as routine replacement.

International audience; Background: The population living in urban areas is growing rapidly. The level of exposure to adverse environmental factors is detrimental to human health and is directly related to urban and transport planning practices. Objective: To estimate the premature mortality burden of non-compliance with international exposure guidelines for air pollution, noise, access to green space and heat for Barcelona and Madrid (Spain), and its distribution among the population by the socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: The Urban and TranspOrt planning Health Impact Assessment (UTOPHIA) tool was applied and the attributable premature mortality due to non-compliance with recommended exposure levels was estimated. The distribution of the attributable mortality burden among the population by SES was investigated through Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) adjusting for spatial autocorrelation and a cluster analysis was performed to identify attributable mortality hot spots. Results: Annually, 7.1% and 3.4% of premature mortality in Barcelona and Madrid, respectively, could be attributed to non-compliance with the international exposure recommendations for air pollution, noise, heat and access to green space. In addition, analysis by SES showed that in Barcelona lower SES areas had an overall greater attributable mortality rate, while in Madrid, the distribution of the attributable mortality burden by SES varied by exposure. Conclusion: This study shows the impact of environmental exposures on mortality and highlights the importance of taking integrated actions when designing cities considering the health impacts, but also the specificities of each city such as the socio-demographic context. Moreover, the high precision scale of the analysis enables the identification of environmental hazards and mortality hot spots providing a powerful tool to support priority-setting and guide policymakers towards a healthy, sustainable and just city for all of their residents.

Background This study aims to analyze the trends of premature mortality caused from four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), namely cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in Nanjing between 2007 and 2018 and project the ability to achieve the “Healthy China 2030” reduction target. Methods Mortality data of four major NCDs for the period 2007–2018 were extracted from the Death Information Registration and Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Population data for Nanjing were provided by the Nanjing Bureau of Public Security. The premature mortality was calculated using the life table method. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in mortality trends. Results From 2007 to 2018, the premature mortality from four major NCDs combined in Nanjing decreased from 15.5 to 9.5%, with the AAPC value at − 4.3% (95% CI [− 5.2% to − 3.4%]). Overall, it can potentially achieve the target, with a relative reduction 28.6%. The premature mortality from cancer, CVD, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes all decreased, with AAPC values at − 4.2, − 5.0%, − 5.9% and − 1.6% respectively. A relative reduction of 40.6 and 41.2% in females and in rural areas, but only 21.0 and 12.8% in males and in urban areas were projected. Conclusion An integrated approach should be taken focusing on the modifiable risk factors across different sectors and disciplines in Nanjing. The prevention and treatment of cancers, diabetes, male and rural areas NCDs should be enhanced.

Background and objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is responsible for 5.3% of deaths worldwide and constitutes the third most common cause of death. The deaths from this cause occur over 10times more often in smokers than in non-smokers. Fortunately, for nearly 30 years, the proportion of people smoking tobacco in Poland has been decreasing. This study aims to analyse the change in premature mortality rates of men and women due to COPD in Poland during 2008–2017. Materials and Methods: The time trends of deaths occurring under 65 were analysed. Standardised premature mortality rates were used, as well as the mortality rates for the five-year age ranges, with a breakdown by gender. The Joinpoint model was used to determine time trends. Results: Over the period analysed, premature mortality in the female population decreased by 2.6% from year to year, albeit without statistical significance, and in the male population there was a decrease by statistically significant 5.2% per year. The biggest drop in mortality, almost 10% per year, was observed in the group of females aged between 50 and 54. Among males, the most significant reduction in mortality was observed in groups between the ages of 40 and 54, and it amounted to approximately 8% annually. With increasing age, the dynamics of mortality reduction decreased. Conclusions: The study showed a steady downward trend in premature mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Poland in both genders. The reduction in mortality was at a high level, despite the lower mortality due to this cause than in other European countries.

People with epilepsy have a three-fold increased risk of dying prematurely, and a significant proportion is due to sudden cardiac death or acute myocardial infarctions. The causes of increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in epilepsy are manifold and include acute or remote effects of epileptic seizures, the longstanding epilepsy itself or antiseizure treatments. Seizure-related cardiac arrhythmias are common and comprise bradyarrhythmia and asystole, atrial fibrillation and ventricular tachycardia. The most frequent clinically relevant seizure-related arrhythmia is ictal asystole that may require implantation of a cardiac pacemaker, whereas seizure-related ventricular tachycardias are only rarely reported. Takotsubo cardiomyopathy and myocardial infarction are rare complications and predominantly described in association with tonic-clonic seizures. Epilepsy-related cardiac complications include a disturbed cardiac autonomic nervous system and acquired dysfunction of the heart (recently defined as 'epileptic heart'), probably contributing to the abnormalities of cardiac repolarisation and elevated risk of sudden cardiac death in people with epilepsy. If successful, the use of antiseizure medication prevents seizure-related cardiac arrhythmias and remote cardiac complications. However, enzyme-inducing antiseizure medications have a negative impact on cardiovascular risk factors, which may further be aggravated by weight gain linked to specific antiseizure drugs. Given the severe consequences of cardiac risks, the aim of this educational review is to explain the many facets of cardiac complications and their underlying causes, and to enable the reader to recognize and manage these risks with the goal to mitigate the cardiac risks in people with epilepsy. Features of syncope are explained in detail, as syncope of all origins can be mistaken as epileptic seizures in people with or without epilepsy, and ictal syncope (i.e. seizure-induced syncope) can easily be ignored.

Air pollution in the environment and in households is responsible worldwide for almost 9 million preventable premature deaths per year and almost 800,000 such deaths within Europe. Air pollution therefore shortens life expectancy worldwide by almost 3 years. Smoking, a proven cardiovascular risk factor, shortens the mean life expectancy by 2.2 years. Epidemiological studies have shown that air pollution from fine and coarse particulate matter is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Responsible for this are mainly cardiovascular diseases, such as coronary heart disease, heart attack, heart failure, stroke, hypertension and also diabetes, which are mainly caused or aggravated by fine particulate matter. After inhalation fine particulate matter can reach the brain directly and also reach the bloodstream via a transition process. There, the particles are absorbed by the blood vessels where they stimulate the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the vascular wall. They therefore promote the formation of atherosclerotic changes and in this way increase the cardiovascular risks, especially an increase in chronic ischemic heart disease and stroke. Recent studies also reported that in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients a high degree of air pollution is correlated with severe disease courses with cardiovascular complications and pulmonary diseases. This necessitates preventive measures, such as lowering of the upper limits for air pollutants. Individual measures to mitigate the health consequences of fine particulate matter are also discussed.Die Luftverschmutzung in der Umgebung und in Haushalten ist weltweit jährlich für mittlerweile knapp 9 Mio. vermeidbare, vorzeitige Todesfälle und innerhalb Europas für knapp 800.000 solcher Todesfälle verantwortlich. Die Luftverschmutzung verkürzt somit weltweit die Lebenserwartung um knapp 3 Jahre. Das Rauchen, ein nachgewiesener Herz-Kreislauf-Risiko-Faktor, verkürzt die mittlere Lebenserwartung um 2,2 Jahre. Epidemiologische Studien zeigen, dass Luftverschmutzung durch Feinstaub mit erhöhter kardiovaskulärer Morbidität und Mortalität assoziiert ist. Hierfür verantwortlich sind hauptsächlich durch Feinstaub ausgelöste oder verschlimmerte Herz-Kreislauf-Erkrankungen, wie koronare Herzkrankheit (KHK), Herzinfarkt, Herzinsuffizienz, Schlaganfall, Hypertonie und auch Diabetes. Feinstaubpartikel können nach Inhalation zum einen direkt ins Gehirn und zum anderen über einen Transitionsprozess in die Blutbahn gelangen. Dort werden sie in die Blutgefäße aufgenommen, wo sie die Bildung reaktiver Sauerstoffspezies (ROS) in der Gefäßwand stimulieren. Damit begünstigen sie die Entstehung atherosklerotischer Veränderungen und steigern so das kardiovaskuläre Risiko, insbesondere eine Zunahme an chronisch-ischämischer Herzerkrankung und Schlaganfall. Neuere Untersuchungen berichten, dass bei COVID-19(„coronavirus disease 2019“)-Patienten ein hoher Grad an Luftverschmutzung mit schweren Krankheitsverläufen mit kardiovaskulären Komplikationen und Lungenerkrankungen korreliert. Dies macht präventive Maßnahmen, wie z. B. eine Absenkung der Grenzwerte für Luftschadstoffe, erforderlich. Individuelle Maßnahmen, um die gesundheitlichen Folgen von Feinstaub abzumildern, werden ebenfalls diskutiert.

Background The COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world’s population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India’s population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India. Method Using data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19. Result COVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20–64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand. Conclusion COVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.

Premature mortality is often a neglected component of overall deaths, and the most difficult to identify. However, it is important to estimate its prevalence. Following Pearson’s theory about mortality components, a definition of premature deaths and a parametric model to study its transformations are introduced. The model is a mixture of three distributions: a Half Normal for the first part of the death curve and two Skew Normals to fit the remaining pieces. One advantage of the model is the possibility of obtaining an explicit equation to compute life expectancy at birth and to break it down into mortality components. We estimated the mixture model for Sweden, France, East Germany and Czech Republic. In addition, to the well-known reduction in infant deaths, and compression and shifting trend of adult mortality, we were able to study the trend of the central part of the distribution of deaths in detail. In general, a right shift of the modal age at death for young adults is observed; in some cases, it is also accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths at these ages: in particular for France, in the last twenty years, premature mortality increases.

Aims Bipolar disorder is associated with premature mortality, but evidence is mostly derived from Western countries. There has been no research evaluating shortened lifespan in bipolar disorder using life-years lost (LYLs), which is a recently developed mortality metric taking into account illness onset for life expectancy estimation. The current study aimed to examine the extent of premature mortality in bipolar disorder patients relative to the general population in Hong Kong (HK) in terms of standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and excess LYLs, and changes of mortality rate over time. Methods This population-based cohort study investigated excess mortality in 12 556 bipolar disorder patients between 2008 and 2018, by estimating all-cause and cause-specific SMRs, and LYLs. Trends in annual SMRs over the 11-year study period were assessed. Study data were retrieved from a territory-wide medical-record database of HK public healthcare services. Results Patients had higher all-cause [SMR: 2.60 (95% CI: 2.45–2.76)], natural-cause [SMR: 1.90 (95% CI: 1.76–2.05)] and unnatural-cause [SMR: 8.63 (95% CI: 7.34–10.03)] mortality rates than the general population. Respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cancers accounted for the majority of deaths. Men and women with bipolar disorder had 6.78 (95% CI: 6.00–7.84) years and 7.35 (95% CI: 6.75–8.06) years of excess LYLs, respectively. The overall mortality gap remained similar over time, albeit slightly improved in men with bipolar disorder. Conclusions Bipolar disorder is associated with increased premature mortality and substantially reduced lifespan in a predominantly Chinese population, with excess deaths mainly attributed to natural causes. Persistent mortality gap underscores an urgent need for targeted interventions to improve physical health of patients with bipolar disorder.

Deep decarbonization paths to the 1.5 °C or 2 °C temperature stabilization futures require a rapid reduction in coal-fired power plants, but many countries are continuing to build new ones. Coal-fired plants are also a major contributor to air pollution related health impacts. Here, we couple an integrated human-earth system model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to examine regional health co-benefits from cancelling new coal-fired plants worldwide. Our analysis considers the evolution of pollutants control based on coal plants vintage and regional policies. We find that cancelling all new proposed projects would decrease air pollution related premature mortality between 101,388–213,205 deaths (2–5%) in 2030, and 213,414–373,054 (5–8%) in 2050, globally, but heavily concentrated in developing Asia. These health co-benefits are comparable in magnitude to the values obtained by implementing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Furthermore, we estimate that strengthening the climate target from 2 °C to 1.5 °C would avoid 326,351 additional mortalities in 2030, of which 251,011 (75%) are attributable to the incremental coal plant shutdown. The authors acknowledge funding support from Bloomberg Philanthropies. This research is also supported by Basque Government through the BERC 2018-2021 and the Spanish Government through María de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714. Jon Sampedro and Ignacio Cazcarro acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (RTI2018-099858-A-100 and RTI2018-093352-B-I00). Jon Sampedro acknowledge financial support from the Basque Government (PRE_2017_2_0139). The authors thank Patrick O’Rourke and Brinda Yarlagadda for their support with data processing. The authors declare no competing interests.

Background Daily exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. While increases in short-term exposure to air pollutants at any daily concentrations has been shown to be associated to adverse health outcomes, days with extreme levels, also known as air pollution peaks based on specific thresholds, have been used to implement air quality alerts in various cities across the globe. Objectives We aimed at evaluating the potential effects of the Air Quality Alerts (AQA) system on different causes of premature mortality in Paris, France. Methods Air quality alerts (AQA) based on particulate matter (PM10) levels and related interventions were implemented in the region of Paris in 2008 and were revised to be more stringent in 2011. In this study, we applied a difference-in-differences (DID) approach coupled with propensity-score matching (PSM) to daily mortality data for the period 2000 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of the Paris AQA program on different causes of premature mortality for the entire population and for adults > 75 years old. Results Overall, results did not show evidence of a reduction in mortality of the PM10 AQA program when first implemented in 2008 with initial thresholds (80 µg/m3); DID estimates were slightly above 1 for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. However, when evaluating the drastic reduction in revised thresholds in 2011 (50 µg/m3) to trigger interventions, we identified a reduction in cardiovascular (DID = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.755 to 0.930) mortality, but no change in respiratory mortality was detected (DID = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.796, 1.191). Discussion Our study suggests that AQA may not have health benefits for the population when thresholds are set at high daily PM10 levels. Given that such policies are implemented in many other metropolitan areas across the globe, evaluating the effectiveness of AQA is important to provide public authorities and researchers a rationale for defining specific thresholds and extending the scope of these policies to lower air pollution levels.

Background Summary measures of population health are increasingly used in different public health reporting systems for setting priorities for health care and social service delivery and planning. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are one of the most commonly used health gap summary measures in the field of public health and have become the key metric for quantifying burden of disease (BoD). BoD methodology is, however, complex and highly data demanding, requiring a substantial capacity to apply, which has led to major disparities across researchers and nations in their resources to perform themselves BoD studies and interpret the soundness of available estimates produced by the Global Burden of Disease Study. Methods BoD researchers from the COST Action European Burden of Disease network reflect on the most important methodological choices to be made when estimating DALYs. The paper provides an overview of eleven methodological decisions and challenges drawing on the experiences of countries working with BoD methodology in their own national studies. Each of these steps are briefly described and, where appropriate, some examples are provided from different BoD studies across the world. Results In this review article we have identified some of the key methodological choices and challenges that are important to understand when calculating BoD metrics. We have provided examples from different BoD studies that have developed their own strategies in data usage and implementation of statistical methods in the production of BoD estimates. Conclusions With the increase in national BoD studies developing their own strategies in data usage and implementation of statistical methods in the production of BoD estimates, there is a pressing need for equitable capacity building on the one hand, and harmonization of methods on the other hand. In response to these issues, several BoD networks have emerged in the European region that bring together expertise across different domains and professional backgrounds. An intensive exchange in the experience of the researchers in the different countries will enable the understanding of the methods and the interpretation of the results from the local authorities who can effectively integrate the BoD estimates in public health policies, intervention and prevention programs.

Background Premature mortality is an important population health indicator used to assess health system functioning and to identify areas in need of health system intervention. Predicting the future incidence of premature mortality in the population can facilitate initiatives that promote equitable health policies and effective delivery of public health services. This study protocol proposes the development and validation of the Premature Mortality Risk Prediction Tool (PreMPoRT) that will predict the incidence of premature mortality using large population-based community health surveys and multivariable modeling approaches. Methods PreMPoRT will be developed and validated using various training, validation, and test data sets generated from the six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics Database from 2000 to 2017. Population-level risk factor information on demographic characteristics, health behaviors, area level measures, and other health-related factors will be used to develop PreMPoRT and to predict the incidence of premature mortality, defined as death prior to age 75, over a 5-year period. Sex-specific Weibull accelerated failure time models will be developed using a Canadian provincial derivation cohort consisting of approximately 500,000 individuals, with approximately equal proportion of males and females, and about 12,000 events of premature mortality. External validation will be performed using separate linked files (CCHS cycles 2007–2008, 2009–2010, and 2011–2012) from the development cohort (CCHS cycles 2000–2001, 2003–2004, and 2005–2006) to check the robustness of the prediction model. Measures of overall predictive performance (e.g., Nagelkerke’s R2), calibration (e.g., calibration plots), and discrimination (e.g., Harrell’s concordance statistic) will be assessed, including calibration within defined subgroups of importance to knowledge users and policymakers. Discussion Using routinely collected risk factor information, we anticipate that PreMPoRT will produce population-based estimates of premature mortality and will be used to inform population strategies for prevention.

Background In 2011, the United Nations set a target to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% by 2025. While studies have reported the target in some countries, no studies have been done in China. This study aims to project the ability to reach the target in Hunan Province, China, and establish the priority for future interventions. Methods We conducted the study during 2019–2020. From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, we extracted death data for Hunan during 1990–2016 for four main NCDs, namely cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. We generated estimates for 2025 by fitting a linear regression to the premature mortality over the most recent trend identified by a joinpoint regression model. We also estimated excess premature mortality attributable to unfavorable changes over time. Results The rate of premature mortality from all NCDs in Hunan will be 19.5% (95% CI [19.0%–20.1%]) by 2025, with the main contributions being from CVD (8.2%, 95% CI [7.9%–8.5%]) and cancer (7.9%, 95% CI [7.8%–8.1%]). Overall, it will be impossible to achieve the target, with a relative reduction of 16.4%. Women may be able to meet the target except with respect to cancer, and men will not except with respect to chronic respiratory diseases. Most of the unfavorable changes have occurred since 2008–2009. Discussion More urgent efforts, especially for men, should be exerted in Hunan by integrating population-wide interventions into a stronger health-care system. In the post lock-down COVID-19 era in China, reducing the NCD risk factors can also lower the risk of death from COVID-19.

Highlights • We reported a full-chain participatory quantitative HIA model estimating the mortality burden and economic value of transport mode shift in the African capital of (Mauritius). • Implementing transport policies aiming for less than an ideal situation may not be adequate or sufficient to avoid negative transport-related mortality in Mauritius. • An estimated USD 23 millions of economic benefits related to a total reduction of 13.72 premature deaths per year can be achieved in the ideal-case scenario. • Urban transport planning is an opportunity to encourage physical activity in rapidly urbanizing settings of Africa. • Policies to restrict forms of private motorization must be encouraged to allow for healthy and sustainable transport., Background High rates of motorization in urban areas of Africa have adverse effects on public health. Transport-related mortality will increase as a result of inadequate transport infrastructure, air pollution and sedentary lifestyles. Health Impact Assessments (HIAs) have proven to be a successful tool to predict and mitigate negative health impact of urban transport planning policies, programmes or projects. Yet, there is a gap of evidence on transport and health in African countries. The aim of this study is assessing the health impacts of transport scenarios in Port Louis (city of 119,018 inhabitants in Mauritius) using a full chain participatory HIA model. Methods We estimated health and economic impacts associated to transport scenarios with qualitative data and quantitative comparative risk assessment methods. The health impact modeling was based on differences between the baseline and three transport scenarios (worse, good, ideal), estimating the averted deaths per year and economic outcomes by assessing health determinants of air pollution (AP), traffic deaths and physical activity (PA). Data on air pollution and traffic fatalities were obtained from public data sources. Data used to construct scenarios, establish baseline travel mode shares and physical activity were collected through (a) open-ended individual interviews (IDIs) with 14 stakeholders (b) closed-ended survey questions to 600 citizens and (c) 2 focus group discussions (FGDs) with the same 14 stakeholders from (a). Results In Port Louis, the worse-case transport scenario (doubling in car trips and a reduction in walking, motorcycle, and public transport), resulted in a total increment of 3.28 premature deaths per year. The good-case scenario (reducing car trips by half and increasing walking, motorcycle, and public transport trips) resulted in a total increment of 0.79 premature deaths per year. The ideal-case scenario (reduction in car and motorcycle trips and an increase in walking and public transport trips) resulted in a total reduction of 13.72 premature deaths per year. We estimated USD 23 millions of economic benefits related to mortality if the ideal-case was achieved. Conclusion Participatory HIA shows that implementing transport policies aiming for less than an ideal situation may not be adequate or sufficient to avoid negative transport-related mortality in Mauritius. Urban transport planning is an opportunity to encourage physical activity in rapidly urbanizing settings of Africa. Transport policies should aim to restrict all forms of private motorized vehicles and promote active and public transport to support public health. We highly recommend the use of participatory approaches in quantitative HIA to ensure context specificity and policy relevance.

The global rise of life expectancy at birth has attracted worldwide interest, especially in understanding the pace of mortality transition in developing countries. In this study, we assess the progress of mortality transition in India during four decades between 1970 and 2013. We estimate measures of mortality compression and variability in age at death to assess the trends and patterns in mortality compression for India as a whole and its twelve biggest states. The results reveal an unequivocal convergence pattern in mortality compression across the states underpinned by the reduction in premature mortality and emerging homogeneity in mortality. Results by gender show that women are more homogenous in their mortality across the country because of an explicit reduction in the Gini coefficients at age 10 by the age group of 15-29 years. Mortality compression has changed in recent decades because of the increased survival of women in their reproductive ages, which marked a distinct phase of mortality transition in India. The pace of mortality transition, however, varies; adult mortality decline was greater than senescent mortality decline. These results show that India has passed the middle stage of mortality transition and has entered an early phase of low mortality.

Background Rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected people with intellectual disability disproportionately. Existing data does not provide enough information to understand factors associated with increased deaths in those with intellectual disability. Establishing who is at high risk is important in developing prevention strategies, given risk factors or comorbidities in people with intellectual disability may be different to those in the general population. Aims To identify comorbidities, demographic and clinical factors of those individuals with intellectual disability who have died from COVID-19. Method An observational descriptive case series looking at deaths because of COVID-19 in people with intellectual disability was conducted. Along with established risk factors observed in the general population, possible specific risk factors and comorbidities in people with intellectual disability for deaths related to COVID-19 were examined. Comparisons between mild and moderate-to-profound intellectual disability subcohorts were undertaken. Results Data on 66 deaths in individuals with intellectual disability were analysed. This group was younger (mean age 64 years) compared with the age of death in the general population because of COVID-19. High rates of moderate-to-profound intellectual disability (n = 43), epilepsy (n = 29), mental illness (n = 29), dysphagia (n = 23), Down syndrome (n = 20) and dementia (n = 15) were observed. Conclusions This is the first study exploring associations between possible risk factors and comorbidities found in COVID-19 deaths in people with intellectual disability. Our data provides insight into possible factors for deaths in people with intellectual disability. Some of the factors varied between the mild and moderate-to-profound intellectual disability groups. This highlights an urgent need for further systemic inquiry and study of the possible cumulative impact of these factors and comorbidities given the possibility of COVID-19 resurgence.

With outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), immediate prevention and control actions were imposed in China. Here, we conducted a timely investigation on the changes of air quality, associated health burden and economic loss during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 1 to May 2, 2020). We found an overall improvement of air quality by analyzing data from 31 provincial cities, due to varying degrees of NO2, PM2.5, PM10 and CO reductions outweighing the significant O3 increase. Such improvement corresponds to a total avoided premature mortality of 9410 (7273–11,144) in the 31 cities by comparing the health burdens between 2019 and 2020. NO2 reduction was the largest contributor (55%) to this health benefit, far exceeding PM2.5 (10.9%) and PM10 (23.9%). O3 instead was the only negative factor among six pollutants. The period with the largest daily avoided deaths was rather not the period with strict lockdown but that during February 25 to March 31, due to largest reduction of NO2 and smallest increase of O3. Southwest, Central and East China were regions with relatively high daily avoided deaths, while for some cities in Northeast China, the air pollution was even worse, therefore could cause more deaths than 2019. Correspondingly, the avoided health economic loss attributable to air quality improvement was 19.4 (15.0–23.0) billion. Its distribution was generally similar to results of health burden, except that due to regional differences in willingness to pay to reduce risks of premature deaths, East China became the region with largest daily avoided economic loss. Our results here quantitatively assess the effects of short-term control measures on changes of air quality as well as its associated health and economic burden, and such information is beneficial to future air pollution control., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • Overall air quality improvement during COVID-19 pandemic was observed in China. • Avoided premature deaths were 9410 (7273–11,144) in 31 provincial capitals. • Avoided economic loss was 19.4 (15.0–23.0) billion RMB in 31 provincial capitals. • NO2 reduction was the largest contributor, much higher than those of PM2.5 and PM10 • Northeast China had serious air pollution-related deaths even during strict lockdown period.

Background Premature mortality among patients experiencing forensic care is high. This paper examines the morbidity and mortality of all Scottish high secure patients in 1992/1993 and followed up 20 years later through the context of recovery. Aims To explore morbidity and delineate which patients are at greatest risk of premature mortality. To assess the extent of suicide and unnatural deaths. To establish which factors, if any, appear protective. Method Health and mortality data were extracted from national data-sets and death categorised as premature or post-expected age. Standardised mortality ratios were calculated to explore natural, unnatural and suicide deaths with Cox regression conducted to explore baseline demographics and premature death. Results During a mean follow-up of 21.1 years, 36.9% (n = 89) died, at an average age of 55.6 years. Of these, 70.8% (n = 63) died prematurely. Men lost on average 14.9 years and women 24.1 years of potential life. Five lives (5.6%) were lost by suicide and three (3.4%) by unnatural means. Conclusions In contrast to other mainstream and forensic cohorts, high rates of suicide and accidental deaths were not apparent. Risk of premature mortality is high. A greater focus upon physical health by community and in-patient services is essential.

This exploratory study investigates counties in the southeast United States with mortality outcomes that were better than might be expected given their sociodemographic profiles (i.e., positive deviance). This study seeks to understand the community characteristics with the potential to moderate the negative health outcomes typically associated with social, geographic, or economic disadvantages. This article describes the process used to identify positive deviants and reports on the findings from key informant interviews in positive deviant counties to identify community factors or practices that might contribute to positive deviance in the observed outcomes. County Health Rankings and Roadmaps 2015 data and mortality trends were examined to identify positive deviant counties. The inclusion criteria were median household incomes in the lowest tertile of their state, ≥ 33% African American, and premature mortality rankings (as measured by Years of Potential Life Lost–YPLL) in the top quartile within their state. After benchmarking county rates against national figures and retaining counties with significant improvement trends, two counties emerged as positive deviants, Dooly County, Georgia and Washington County, North Carolina. Key informant interviews (n = 11) were conducted with community stakeholders in the study counties to better understand the community characteristics that could lead to the observed outcomes. Interview data were analyzed using qualitative methods. Key informant interviews revealed three emergent themes: 1. accessibility and availability of healthcare, 2. the provision of a robust EMS system, and 3. coordination of county-funded services targeting vulnerable populations. The positive deviance framework provides a foundation for the identification of community factors or practices with the potential to create a ‘culture of health’ in communities at the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes. Our findings suggest that healthcare supported by the coordination of non-emergency transportation and health and social services across numerous stakeholders may have contributed to observed outcomes in the study counties., Highlights • This study investigated premature mortality trends in counties in the southeast United States. • Two counties out of the 131 counties examined met the criteria for inclusion. • Community stakeholders (n=11) were identified and interviewed as part of a site visit to the study counties. • For premature death in the County Health Rankings, Dooly County ranked 20th in Georgia in 2015. • For premature death in the County Health Rankings, Washington County ranked 23rd in North Carolina in 2015.

The aim of this study was to evaluate trends of potential years of life lost (PYLL) rates in the Slovak population and analyze the average annual percent change (AAPC) of PYLL rates regarding the most common causes of death between 2004 and 2013. National mortality and demographic data were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, and 378,535 causes of death within the period were analyzed. The PYLL values in both genders and each disease category were added up across all age groups to form annual values. For the trend analysis, the AAPC indicator was proposed. The PYLL rate is age-standardized and expressed as a sum of all deaths per 100,000. In the period 2004-2013, the highest mean PYLL rates were observed in neoplasms in the whole population (2,103 per 100,000), as well as in females (2,088 per 100,000), with a permanent high significant increase of AAPC of PYLL in both genders. The second highest mean PYLL rate in the ten-year period was related to circulatory system diseases in total (1,922 per 100,000) as well as in females (1,449 per 100,000). In males, circulatory system diseases had the highest PYLL rate (2,397 per 100,000). The PYLL rates trend regarding external causes of morbidity and mortality showed the most notable decrease in the assessed period and the AAPC of PYLL showed significant negative values both in males (-2.5%; p < 0.001) and females (-4%; p < 0.001). Our results should contribute in developing intervention programs aimed at reducing the burden of premature mortality since the main causes of premature death are associated to well-known and preventable risk factors. O estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as tendências nas taxas de anos potenciais de vida perdidos (APVP) na população eslovaca e a análise da variação percentual anual média (VPAM) nas taxas de APVP de acordo com as causas de óbito mais comuns no período de 2004 a 2013. A mortalidade nacional e os dados demográficos foram obtidos do Escritório de Estatística da República Eslovaca. Foram analisadas 378.535 causas de óbito entre 2004 e 2013. Para constituir os valores anuais, foram tabelados, em todas as faixas etárias, os valores de APVP em ambos gêneros e em cada categoria nosológica. Para a análise de tendências, foi proposto o indicador da VPAM. A taxa de APVP é padronizada para a idade e expressa como a soma de todos os óbitos por 100 mil. No período de 2004 a 2013, as médias mais altas de APVP foram observadas em neoplasias na população geral (2.103 por 100 mil) e na população feminina (2.088 por 100 mil), com um aumento significativo na VPAM dos APVP em ambos os gêneros. A segunda maior média de APVP no período de 10 anos foi devida a doenças cardiovasculares, tanto na população geral (1.922 por 100 mil) quanto na população feminina (1.449 por 100 mil). Na população masculina, as doenças cardiovasculares tiveram a maior taxa de APVP (2.397 por 100 mil). A tendência nas taxas de APVP por causas externas mostraram a redução mais importante no período avaliado, e a VPAM dos APVP comprovou os valores negativos significativos, tanto em homens (-2,5%; p < 0,001) quanto em mulheres (-4%; p < 0,001). Os resultados devem contribuir para o desenvolvimento de intervenções voltadas para a redução da carga de mortalidade prematura, considerando que as principais causas de morte prematura estão associadas a fatores de risco bem conhecidos e preveníveis. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar las tendencias de las tasas de los años potenciales de vida perdidos (PYLL por sus siglas en inglés) en la población eslovaca y el análisis de la variación promedio del porcentaje anual (AAPC por sus siglas en inglés) de las tasas PYLL, de acuerdo con las causas más comunes de muerte, durante el período de 2004-2013. La mortalidad nacional y los datos demográficos se obtuvieron de la Oficina Estadística de la República Eslovaca; se analizaron 378.535 causas de muerte entre 2004 y 2013. Los valores de PYLL en ambos géneros y en cada categoría de enfermedad se contaron en todos los grupos de edad para formar valores anuales. Para el análisis de tendencia, se propuso el indicador AAPC. La tasa de PYLL se encuentra estandarizada por edad y expresada como la suma de todas las muertes por 100.000. En el período 2004-2013, las tasas medias más altas de PYLL se observaron en neoplasias en toda la población (2.103 por 100.000), así como en las mujeres (2.088 por 100.000) con un incremento significativo permanente alto de la AAPC en los PYLL en ambos géneros. La segunda tasa media más alta de PYLL, durante el período de diez años, se debió a las enfermedades del sistema circulatorio en total (1.922 por 100.000), al igual que en las mujeres (1.449 por 100.000). En hombres, las enfermedades del sistema circulatorio tienen la tasa más alta de PYLL (2.397 por 100.000). La tendencia de las tasas de PYLL, debida a causas externas de morbilidad y mortalidad mostró un notable decremento en el período evaluado y la AAPC de PYLL probaron los valores negativos significativos tanto en hombres (-2,5%; p < 0,001) como en mujeres (-4%; p < 0,001). Nuestros resultados deberían contribuir al desarrollo de la intervención en programas que tengan como meta reducir la carga de la mortalidad prematura, considerando que las causas principales de muerte prematura están asociadas a factores de riesgo bien conocidos y prevenibles.

The spread of HIV infection with the consequent death from AIDS removes some resources from the economy, impedes the preservation of human capital in the economy and undermines the foundations of economic development. The analysis of foreign and domestic research demonstrates the difficulty of assessing the impact of HIV infection on economic development. There is a variety of approaches and methods used for these assessments. Thus, the search for an optimal model to assess the impact of HIV infection on economic development becomes increasingly relevant. We have substantiated the calculation the economic burden of the disease caused by HIV infection. The proposed method for assessing socio-economic losses due to premature mortality from HIV infection includes three main types: the explicit economic costs from the premature mortality of the working-age population, the implicit costs from the premature mortality of the incapable population and the implicit economic costs from premature mortality of women of child-bearing age due to their inability to participate in the reproduction of the labour force.. The magnitude of the region’s gross regional product (GRP) losses from fatal HIV infection increased 1.85 times between the years 2012 and 2016. As a result, of premature mortality from HIV infection, the Sverdlovsk oblast GRP decreased by 1.68 % in 2016, total losses were 16.2 billion roubles. In the structure of the total losses, about 70 % are implicit losses associated with the mortality of women of child-bearing age and therefore, the loss of the opportunity to increase the population of the region. The further direction of the research is to assess the socio-economic impact of investments in HIV treatment on the quality of life in the region. © 2018 Institute of Economics Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Aims/hypothesis The reasons underlying a greater association of premature mortality with early-onset type 2 diabetes relative to late-onset disease are unclear. We evaluated the clinical characteristics at type 2 diabetes diagnosis and the broad trajectories in cardiometabolic risk factors over the initial years following diagnosis in relation to age at diagnosis. Methods Our cohort consisted of 100,606 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 2002 to 2012. The average follow-up time was 2.8 years. Analyses were performed using a linear mixed-effects model for continuous risk factors and a mixed generalised linear model with a logistic link function for dichotomous risk factors. Results The individuals diagnosed at the youngest age (18–44 years) were more often male and had the highest BMI (mean of 33.4 kg/m2) at diagnosis and during follow-up compared with all other groups (those diagnosed at 45–59 years, 60–74 years and ≥75 years; p, This work was supported by grants from the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and by Region Västra Götaland in Sweden

In past decade of rapid industrial development and urbanization, China has witnessed increasingly persistent severe haze and smog episodes, posing serious health hazards to the Chinese population, especially in densely populated cities. Quantification of health impacts attributable to PM2.5 (particulates with aerodynamic diameter

Highlights • Among HICs, uniform declines in premature death from CVD and cancer were observed. • Cancer mortality exceeded CVD in 9 of 10 HICs in 2000 and in all 10 by 2019. • CVD mortality exceeded cancer in all MICs in 2000, and in 8 countries by 2019. • Less than half of the studied countries are predicted to meet the SDG 3.4 target. • Evidence-based, prioritized, costed and financed programmes are needed to accelerate progress., With the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of a one-third reduction in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) less than a decade away, it is timely to assess national progress in reducing premature deaths from the two leading causes of mortality worldwide. We examine trends in the probability of dying ages 30–70 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer 2000–19 in 10 middle-income (MICs) and 10 high-income (HICs) countries with high quality data. We then predict whether the SDG target will be met in each country for CVD, cancer and for the four main NCDs combined. Downward trends were more evident in HICs relative to the MICs, and for CVD relative to cancer. CVD and cancer declines ranged from 30–60% and 20–30% in HICs over the 20-year period, but progress was less uniform among the MICs. Premature deaths from cancer exceeded CVD in nine of the 10 HICs by 2000 and in all 10 by 2019; in contrast, CVD mortality exceeded cancer in all 10 MICs in 2000 and remained the leading cause in eight countries by 2019. Two of the 10 MICs (Colombia and Kazakhstan) and seven of the HICs (Australia, Chile, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, and the U.K.) are predicted to meet the SDG NCDs target. Whether countries are on course to meet the target by 2030 reflects changing risk factor profiles and the extent to which effective preventative and medical care interventions have been implemented. In addition, lessons can be learned given people living with NCDs are more susceptible to severe COVID-19 illness and death.

The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of education, marital status, employment status and place of residence on mortality in the working age population of Poland in 2002 and 2011.All deaths of Poland's inhabitants aged 25-64, in 2002 (N = 97 004) and 2011 (N = 104 598) were analyzed. For individual socio-economic groups standardized mortality rates (SDR) per 100 000 and rate ratio (RR) were calculated.In the group of economically inactive men SDR decreased from 2244.3 in 2002 to 1781.9 in 2011, while in the group of economically active population increased from 253.8 to 298.9 (RR drop from 8.8 to 6). In the group of economically inactive women SDR decreased from 579.5 to 495.2, and among the economically active women population it increased from 78.8 to 90.9 (RR drop from 7.4 to 5.4). In the group of men with higher education SDR decreased from 285.7 to 246, while among men with primary education it increased from 1141 to 1183 (RR increase from 4 to 4.8). In the group of women with higher education SDR decreased from 127.2 to 115.6 and among women with primary education it increased from 375.8 to 423.1 (RR increase from 3 to 3.7). In the group of divorced/separated SDR also increased - from 1521.4 to 1729.8 among men and from 365.5 to 410.8 among women.Future prevention and educational programs should be addressed primarily to the population economically inactive, with primary education and those divorced/separated. Med Pr 2017;68(6):771-778.Celem pracy była ocena zależności między wykształceniem, stanem cywilnym, statusem zatrudnienia i miejscem zamieszkania a umieralnością mieszkańców Polski w wieku produkcyjnym w latach 2002 i 2011.Analizą objęto zgony mieszkańców Polski w wieku 25–64 lat w 2002 r. (N = 97 004) i 2011 r. (N = 104 598). Dla poszczególnych grup społeczno- -ekonomicznych obliczono standaryzowane współczynniki umieralności (SDR) na 100 000 mieszkańców i wskaźniki nierówności (rate ratio – RR).W grupie mężczyzn biernych zawodowo SDR zmniejszył się z 2244,3 w 2002 r. do 1781,9 w 2011 r., natomiast wśród aktywnych zawodowo wzrósł z 253,8 do 298,9 (spadek RR z 8,8 do 6). W grupie kobiet biernych zawodowo SDR zmniejszył się z 579,5 do 495,2, natomiast wśród aktywnych zawodowo zwiększył się z 78,8 do 90,9 (spadek RR z 7,4 do 5,4). W grupie mężczyzn z wykształceniem wyższym SDR zmniejszył się z 285,7 do 246, a w grupie z wykształceniem podstawowym wzrósł z 1141 do 1183 (wzrost RR z 4 do 4,8). W grupie kobiet z wykształceniem wyższym SDR zmniejszył się z 127,2 do 115,6, a w grupie z wykształceniem podstawowym zwiększył się z 375,8 do 423,1 (wzrost RR z 3 do 3,7). W grupie rozwiedzionych/ /separowanych również wzrosły SDR – z 1521,4 do 1729,8 wśród mężczyzn i z 365,5 do 410,8 wśród kobiet.Przyszłe programy profilaktyczne i edukacyjne w zakresie ochrony zdrowia należy adresować przede wszystkim do osób biernych zawodowo, z wykształceniem podstawowym oraz rozwiedzionych lub żyjących w separacji. Med. Pr. 2017;68(6):771–778.

Background In Belgium, socio-economic inequalities in mortality have long been described at country-level. As Belgium is a federal state with many responsibilities in health policies being transferred to the regional levels, regional breakdown of health indicators is becoming increasingly relevant for policy-makers, as a tool for planning and evaluation. We analyzed the educational disparities by region for all-cause and cause-specific premature mortality in the Belgian population. Methods Residents with Belgian nationality at birth registered in the census 2001 aged 25–64 were included, and followed up for 10 years though a linkage with the cause-of-death database. The role of 3 socio-economic variables (education, employment and housing) in explaining the regional mortality difference was explored through a Poisson regression. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) by educational level (EL), rate differences (RD), rate ratios (RR), and population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed in the 3 regions of Belgium and compared with pairwise regional ratios. The global PAFs were also decomposed into the main causes of death. Results Regional health gaps are observed within each EL, with ASMRs in Brussels and Wallonia exceeding those of Flanders by about 50% in males and 40% in females among Belgian. Individual SE variables only explained up to half of the regional differences. Educational inequalities were also larger in Brussels and Wallonia than in Flanders, with RDs ratios reaching 1.8 and 1.6 for Brussels versus Flanders, and Wallonia versus Flanders respectively; regional ratios in relative inequalities (RRs and PAFs) were smaller. This pattern was observed for all-cause and most specific causes of premature mortality. Ranking the cause-specific PAFs revealed a higher health impact of inequalities in causes combining high mortality rate and relative inequality, with lung cancer and ischemic heart disease on top for all regions and both sexes. The ranking showed few regional differences. Conclusions For the first time in Belgium, educational inequalities were studied by region. Among the Belgian, educational inequalities were higher in Brussels, followed by Wallonia and Flanders. The region-specific PAF decomposition, leading to a ranking of causes according to their population-level impact on overall inequality, is useful for regional policy-making processes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13690-017-0212-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The issues on prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCD) with the goal of premature mortality decrease and, respectively, of people lives saving, is being discussed actively in the countries of Northern Dimension Partnership in Public Health and Social Well-being (NDPHS). Comparative analysis of NCD in the NDP countries showed serious, approximately 3 times, differences in the parameters of premature mortality from NCD within the countries, and direct relationship of premature mortality from NCD with smoking prevalence in men, as with alcohol consumption in both sexes. Negative correlation is found in premature NCD mortality indices and amount of money spent on public health per person per year; such difference is as high as 10-15 times among the countries. The discussion of priorities and effective methods of NCD prevention by the members of NDPHS is significant for experience exchange and facilitates implementation of three strategies on NCD prevention and their promotion in all political and strategic events in the countries.

Objective: To estimate the long‐term productivity impacts of all‐cause premature mortality in Australia by age, sex and cause of death. Methods: Using a human capital approach, a model was developed to estimate both the working years and present value of lifetime income (PVLI) lost due to premature deaths that occurred in 2003. Outcomes were modelled on individual level data to the year 2030. A discount rate of 3% was applied and results are presented in 2015 Australian dollars. Results: Premature deaths occurring in 2003 accounted for about 284,000 working years lost and $13.8 billion in PVLI lost when modelled to 2030. Deaths from cancer and cardiovascular disease accounted for more than half the total PVLI impact. Injuries and mental disorders were associated with the highest average PVLI loss per death. Conclusions: The productivity‐related impacts of premature mortality are substantial. This study provides an assessment of relative impact of these costs across specific age, sex and cause of death categories. Implications: Policies and interventions that prevent premature mortality would improve both health and economic outcomes. An awareness of the productivity costs associated with all‐cause mortality may assist decision makers in identifying population and disease subgroups where cost‐effective health care investment can achieve the greatest economic gains to society.

La nueva metodología de carga global de enfermedad (GBD, 2010) resulta difícil de reproducir completamente en Colombia. En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de utilización parcial de esta metodología para estimar los años perdidos por muerte prematura (APMP) y los vividos con discapacidad (AVD). La redistribución de códigos inútiles produce incrementos importantes en las causas de muerte, que es preferible a un análisis de causas de muerte con un 15,6 % de códigos inútiles que aportarían poca o ninguna información estadística. La cardiopatía isquémica, eventos cerebrovasculares y la cardiopatía hipertensiva causan el mayor riesgo de mortalidad (164,2 muertes por 100 000). Las agresiones por arma de fuego y objeto cortante, las lesiones auto-infligidasy las provocadas por vehículos de tres y cuatro ruedas, causan el mayor riesgo de APMP (34,3 APMP por 1000). Enfermedades de piel como la dermatitis, eritemas, la pediculosis y la pitiriasis, causan el mayor riesgo de AVD (51,3 AVD por 1000). Este grupo de enfermedades de la piel también resultan la principal causa de AVISAs Totales (51,4 AVISAs Totales por 1000). Los departamentos con las tasas más elevadas de mortalidad y APMP para las causas del grupo I (enfermedades transmisibles) son Guainía, Amazonas, Vaupés, Cauca, Vichada, Putumayo, Nariño, Chocó, Córdoba, La Guajira, Guaviare y Caquetá, que están entre los de más baja cobertura de la mortalidad. The new methodology applying for burden of disease study (GBD 2010) is difficult tocompletely reproduce in Colombia. This paper presents the results of partial use of this methodology to estimate the components years lost due to premature death (YLLs) and lived with disability (YLDs). Redistribution of useless codes produces significant increases in some causes of death, which are preferable to deal with an analysis of causes of death with 15,6 % of useless codes that would provide little or no statistical information. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular and hypertensive heart disease events cause the highest risk of mortality rate (164,2 per 100,000). Assaults by firearms and sharp objects, self-inflicted injuries and those caused by motorcycles and four-wheeled vehicles on the road, are the first cause of YLLs per 1000 (34,3). Skin diseases such as dermatitis, erythemas, burns on exposure to sunlight, pediculosis and pityriasis, cause the greatest risk of YLDs per 1000 (51,3). This group of skin diseases are also the leading cause of DALYs per 1000 (51,4). The departments with the highest rates of mortality and YLLs for Group I (communicable diseases) are Guainía, Amazonas, Vaupés, Cauca, Vichada, Putumayo, Nariño, Chocó, Cordoba, La Guajira, Guaviare y Caquetá and with the lower mortality coverage.

Background It has been 8 years since the first case of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was reported in Saudi Arabia and the disease is still being reported in 27 countries; however, there is no international study to estimate the overall burden related of this emerging infectious disease. The present study was conducted to assess the burden of premature mortality due to Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) worldwide. Methods In this retrospective analysis, we have utilized publicly available data from the WHO website related to 1789 MERS patients reported between September 23, 2012 and May 17, 2019. To calculate the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL), life expectancy at birth was set according to the 2000 global burden of disease study on levels 25 and 26 of West model life tables from Coale-Demeny at 82.5 and 80 years for females and males, respectively. Results Overall, the total SEYLL in males and females was 10,702 and 3817.5 years, respectively. The MERS patients within the age range of 30–59 year-olds had the highest SEYLL (8305.5 years) in comparison to the patients within the age groups 0–29 (SEYLL = 3744.5 years) and ≥ 60 years (SEYLL = 2466.5 years). The total SEYLL in all age groups in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 were 71.5, 2006.5, 3162, 4425.5, 1809.5, 878, 1257.5 and 909 years, respectively. The most SEYLL related to MERS-CoV infection was in the early four years of the onset of the pandemic (2012 to 2015) and in the last four years of the MERS-CoV pandemic (216 to 2019), a significant reduction was observed in the SEYLL related to MERS-CoV infection in the MERS patients. Conclusion We believe that the findings of this study will shed light about the burden of premature mortality due to MERS infection in the world and the results may provide necessary information for policy-makers to prevent, control, and make a quick response to the outbreak of MERS-CoV disease.

Introduction Tobacco smoking is a significant public health threat in the world, a risk factor for many diseases, and has been increasing in prevalence in many developing countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the burden of premature deaths attributable to smoking among Tunisian men aged 35-69 years in 2009. Methods The number of deaths attributable to smoking was estimated using the population attributable risk fraction method. Smoking prevalence was obtained from a nationally representative survey. Causes of death were obtained from the registry of the National Public Health Institute. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Prevention Study (CPS-II). Results Total estimated premature deaths attributable to smoking among men in Tunisia were 2601 (95% CI: 2268-2877), accounting for 25% (95% CI: 23.3-26.6) of total male adult mortality. Cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were the major causes of premature deaths attributable to smoking with 1272 (95% CI: 1188-1329), 966 (95% CI: 779-1133) and 364 (300-415) deaths, respectively. Conclusions Tobacco smoking is highly relevant and is related to substantial premature mortality in Tunisia, around double that estimated for the region as a whole. This also has not decreased over the past 20 years. Urgent actions are needed to reduce this pandemic.

Aims: Productivity losses related to premature cancer mortality have been assessed for most developed countries but results for Russia are limited to cross-sectional reports. The aim of this study was to quantify productivity costs due to cancer mortality in Russia between 2001 and 2015 and project this to 2030. Methods: Cancer mortality data (2001–2015) were acquired from the State Cancer Registry, whereas population data, labour force participation rates and annual earnings were retrieved from the Federal State Statistics Service. Cancer mortality was projected to 2030 and the human capital approach was applied to estimate productivity losses. Results: The total annual losses increased from US6.5b in 2001–2005 to US$8.1b in 2011–2015, corresponding to 0.24% of the annual gross domestic product. The value is expected to remain high in 2030 (US$7.5b, 0.14% of gross domestic product). Productivity losses per cancer death are predicted to grow faster in women (from US$18,622 to US$22,386) than in men (from US$25,064 to US$28,459). Total losses were found to be highest for breast cancer in women (US$0.6b, 20% of overall losses in women) and lung cancer in men (US$1.2b, 24%). The absolute predicted change of annual losses between 2011–2015 and 2026–2030 was greatest for cervix uteri (+US$214m) in women and for lip, oral and pharyngeal cancers in men (+US$182m). Conclusions: In Russia, productivity losses due to premature cancer mortality are substantial. Given the expected importance especially for potentially preventable cancers, steps to implement effective evidence-based national cancer control policies are urgently required.