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On March 11th 2020, the World Health Organization characterised COVID-19 as a pandemic. Responses to containing the spread of the virus have relied heavily on policies involving restricting contact between people. Evolving policies regarding shielding and individual choices about restricting social contact will rely heavily on perceived risk of poor outcomes from COVID-19. In order to make informed decisions, both individual and collective, good predictive models are required. For outcomes related to an infectious disease, the performance of any risk prediction model will depend heavily on the underlying prevalence of infection in the population of interest. Incorporating measures of how this changes over time may result in important improvements in prediction model performance. This protocol reports details of a planned study to explore the extent to which incorporating time-varying measures of infection burden over time improves the quality of risk prediction models for COVID-19 death in a large population of adult patients in England. To achieve this aim, we will compare the performance of different modelling approaches to risk prediction, including static cohort approaches typically used in chronic disease settings and landmarking approaches incorporating time-varying measures of infection prevalence and policy change, using COVID-19 related deaths data linked to longitudinal primary care electronic health records data within the OpenSAFELY secure analytics platform.

Background Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) risk. We compared health‐related quality of life (HRQoL), healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and clinical outcomes of stable post‐myocardial infarction (MI) patients with and without DM. Hypothesis In post‐MI patients, DM is associated with worse HRQoL, increased HRU, and worse clinical outcomes. Methods The prospective, observational long‐term risk, clinical management, and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery disease study obtained data from 8968 patients aged ≥50 years 1 to 3 years post‐MI (369 centers; 25 countries). Patients with ≥1 of the following risk factors were included: age ≥65 years, history of a second MI >1 year before enrollment, multivessel coronary artery disease, creatinine clearance ≥15 and

IntroductionFor people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who require an antidiabetic drug as an add-on to metformin, there is controversy about whether newer drug classes such as dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) reduce the risk of long-term complications compared with sulfonylureas (SU). There is widespread variation across National Health Service Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in drug choice for second-line treatment in part because National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines do not specify a single preferred drug class, either overall or within specific patient subgroups. This study will evaluate the relative effectiveness of the three most common second-line treatments in the UK (SU, DPP4i and SGLT2i as add-ons to metformin) and help target treatments according to individual risk profiles.Methods and analysisThe study includes people with T2DM prescribed one of the second-line treatments-of-interest between 2014 and 2020 within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics. We will use an instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate short-term and long-term relative effectiveness of second-line treatments according to individuals’ risk profiles. This method minimises bias from unmeasured confounders by exploiting the natural variation in second-line prescribing across CCGs as an IV for the choice of prescribed treatment. The primary outcome to assess short-term effectiveness will be change in haemoglobin A1c (%) 12 months after treatment initiation. Outcome measures to assess longer-term effectiveness (maximum ~6 years) will include microvascular and macrovascular complications, all-cause mortality and hospital admissions during follow-up.Ethics and disseminationThis study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (20-064) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Research Ethics Committee (21395). Results, codelists and other analysis code will be made available to patients, clinicians, policy-makers and researchers.

Background This paper assesses variation in rates of emergency surgery (ES) amongst emergency admissions to hospital in patients with acute appendicitis, cholelithiasis, diverticular disease, abdominal wall hernia, and intestinal obstruction. Methods Records of emergency admissions between 1 April 2010 and 31 December 2019 for the five conditions were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics for 136 acute National Health Service (NHS) trusts in England. Patients who had ES were identified using Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) procedure codes, selected by consensus of a clinical panel. The differences in ES rates according to patient characteristics, and unexplained variations across NHS trusts were estimated by multilevel logistic regression, adjusting for year of emergency admission, age, sex, ethnicity, diagnostic subcategories, index of multiple deprivation, number of co-morbidities, and frailty. Results The cohort sizes ranged from 107 325 (hernia) to 268 253 (appendicitis) patients, and the proportion of patients who received ES from 11.0 per cent (diverticular disease) to 92.3 per cent (appendicitis). Older patients were generally less likely to receive ES, with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of ES for those aged 75–79 versus those aged 45–49 years: 0.34 (appendicitis), 0.49 (cholelithiasis), 0.87 (hernia), and 0.91 (intestinal obstruction). Patients with diverticular disease aged 75–79 were more likely to receive ES than those aged 45–49 (OR 1.40). Variation in ES rates across NHS trusts remained after case mix adjustment and was greatest for cholelithiasis (trust median 18 per cent, 10th to 90th centile 7–35 per cent). Conclusion For patients presenting as emergency hospital admissions with common acute conditions, variation in ES rates between NHS trusts remained after adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics. Age was strongly associated with the likelihood of ES receipt for some procedures., This study reports variation in rates of emergency surgery (ES) across National Health Service trusts amongst patients presenting as emergency admissions to hospital with acute appendicitis, cholelithiasis, diverticular disease, abdominal wall hernia, or intestinal obstruction, after adjustment for differences in patient-level characteristics. Older patients were less likely to have ES, after allowing for differences in other patient characteristics, including number of Charlson co-morbidities, level of frailty, and diagnostic subcategory. The decline in the rate of ES with increasing age was greatest for patients presenting with acute appendicitis and cholelithiasis.

Aims To assess variation in use of emergency surgery (ES) for emergency hospital admissions with acute appendicitis, cholelithiasis, diverticular disease, abdominal wall hernia or intestinal obstruction. Methods Cohorts were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics for 136 acute NHS trusts in England. Clinical panel consensus defined ES for emergency admissions between 1/4/2010 and 31/12/2019. The association of socio-demographic characteristics with ES use was estimated by multivariable logistic regression, with adjustment for comorbidity, frailty, diagnosis and trust. Results The cohort sizes ranged from 49,385 (hernia) to 184,777 (appendicitis) patients. ES was less likely for: patients aged over 80, with odds ratios (ORs) across conditions from 0.15 to 0.84 versus those aged under 40; the most deprived, ORs 0.83 to 0.92, versus least deprived; and Asian patients, ORs 0.72 to 0.88, versus White patients. Black patients were less likely to have emergency surgery for appendicitis (OR 0.78) and cholelithiasis (OR 0.78). Females were less likely to have ES for appendicitis (OR 0.94 versus males), but more likely to have surgery for intestinal obstruction (OR 1.29), hernia (OR 1.13) and cholelithiasis (OR 1.22). Unexplained variation in ES across trusts, remained after case-mix adjustment, and was greatest for cholelithiasis (median of 16%, 10 to 90 centile 5%-34%), and hernia (61%, 52%-71%), followed by intestinal obstruction (29%, 24%-36%). appendicitis (93%, 89%-95%), and diverticular disease (15%, 11%-20%). Conclusions The socio-demographic characteristics of emergency admissions are associated with the likelihood of receiving ES. Variation in ES use between NHS trusts remained after adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics.

International audience; Background: Risk prediction tools are lacking for patients with stable disease some years after myocardial infarction (MI).Hypothesis: A practical long‐term cardiovascular risk index can be developed.Methods: The long‐Term rIsk, Clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease in post‐myocardial infarction patients prospective global registry enrolled patients 1 to 3 years post‐MI (369 centers; 25 countries), all with ≥1 risk factor (age ≥65 years, diabetes mellitus requiring medication, second prior MI, multivessel coronary artery disease, or chronic non‐end‐stage kidney disease [CKD]). Self‐reported health was assessed with EuroQoL‐5 dimensions. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to determine key predictors of the primary composite outcome (MI, unstable angina with urgent revascularization [UA], stroke, or all‐cause death) over 2 years.Results: The primary outcome occurred in 621 (6.9%) of 9027 eligible patients: death 295 (3.3%), MI 195 (2.2%), UA 103 (1.1%), and stroke 58 (0.6%). All events accrued linearly. In a multivariable model, 11 significant predictors of primary outcome (age ≥65 years, diabetes, second prior MI, CKD, history of major bleed, peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalization (prior 6 months), medical management (index MI), on diuretic, and poor self‐reported health) were identified and combined into a user‐friendly risk index. Compared with lowest‐risk patients, those in the top 16% had a rate ratio of 6.9 for the primary composite, and 18.7 for all‐cause death (overall c‐statistic; 0.686, and 0.768, respectively). External validation was performed using the Australian Cooperative National Registry of Acute Coronary Care, Guideline Adherence and Clinical Events registry (c‐statistic; 0.748, and 0.849, respectively).Conclusions: In patients >1‐year post‐MI, recurrent cardiovascular events and deaths accrue linearly. A simple risk index can stratify patients, potentially helping to guide management.

Background High numbers of patients experience severe acute stress in critical care units. Acute stress has been linked to post-critical care psychological morbidity, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previously, a preventive, complex psychological intervention [Psychological Outcomes following a nurse-led Preventative Psychological Intervention for critically ill patients (POPPI)] was developed by this research team, to be led by nurses, to reduce the development of PTSD symptom severity at 6 months. Objectives The objectives were to (1) standardise and refine the POPPI intervention, and, if feasible, (2) evaluate it in a cluster randomised clinical trial (RCT). Design Two designs were used – (1) two feasibility studies to test the delivery and acceptability (to patients and staff) of the intervention, education package and support tools, and to test the trial procedures (i.e. recruitment and retention), and (2) a multicentre, parallel-group, cluster RCT with a baseline period and staggered roll-out of the intervention. Setting This study was set in NHS adult, general critical care units. Participants The participants were adult patients who were > 48 hours in a critical care unit, receiving level 3 care and able to consent. Interventions The intervention comprised three elements – (1) creating a therapeutic environment in critical care, (2) three stress support sessions for patients identified as acutely stressed and (3) a relaxation and recovery programme for patients identified as acutely stressed. Main outcome measures Primary outcome – patient-reported symptom severity using the PTSD Symptom Scale – Self Report (PSS-SR) questionnaire (to measure clinical effectiveness) and incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and net monetary benefit at 6 months (to measure cost-effectiveness). Secondary outcomes – days alive and free from sedation to day 30; duration of critical care unit stay; PSS-SR score of > 18 points; depression, anxiety and health-related quality of life at 6 months; and lifetime cost-effectiveness. Results (1) A total of 127 participants were recruited to the intervention feasibility study from two sites and 86 were recruited to the RCT procedures feasibility study from another two sites. The education package, support tools and intervention were refined. (2) A total of 24 sites were randomised to the intervention or control arms. A total of 1458 participants were recruited. Twelve sites delivered the intervention during the intervention period: > 80% of patients received two or more stress support sessions and all 12 sites achieved the target of > 80% of clinical staff completing the POPPI online training. There was, however, variation in delivery across sites. There was little difference between baseline and intervention periods in the development of PTSD symptom severity (measured by mean PSS-SR score) at 6 months for surviving patients in either the intervention or the control group: treatment effect estimate −0.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) −2.58 to 2.52; p = 0.98. On average, the intervention decreased costs and slightly improved QALYs, leading to a positive incremental net benefit at 6 months (£835, 95% CI −£4322 to £5992), but with considerable statistical uncertainty surrounding these results. There were no significant differences between the groups in any of the secondary outcomes or in the prespecified subgroup analyses. Limitations There was a risk of bias because different consent processes were used and as a result of the lack of blinding, which was mitigated as far as possible within the study design. The intervention started later than anticipated. Patients were not routinely monitored for delirium. Conclusions Among level 3 patients who stayed > 48 hours in critical care, the delivery of a preventive, complex psychological intervention, led by nurses, did not reduce the development of PTSD symptom severity at 6 months, when compared with usual care. Future work Prior to development and evaluation of subsequent psychological interventions, there is much to learn from post hoc analyses of the cluster RCT rich quantitative and qualitative data. Trial registration This trial is registered as ISRCTN61088114 and ISRCTN53448131. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 23, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Vasodilatory shock is common in critically ill patients and vasopressors are a mainstay of therapy. A meta-analysis suggested that use of a higher, as opposed to a lower, mean arterial pressure target to guide titration of vasopressor therapy, could be associated with a higher risk of death in older critically ill patients. The 65 trial is a pragmatic, multi-centre, parallel-group, open-label, randomised clinical trial of permissive hypotension (a mean arterial pressure target of 60–65 mmHg during vasopressor therapy) versus usual care in critically ill patients aged 65 years or over with vasodilatory hypotension. The trial is conducted in 2600 patients from 65 United Kingdom adult, general critical care units. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality at 90 days. An economic evaluation is embedded. The 65 trial received favourable ethical opinion from the South Central – Oxford C Research Ethics Committee and approval from the Health Research Authority. The results will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer-reviewed medical journals. Trial registration: ISRCTN10580502

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) are recommended to include sensitivity analyses which make a range of contextually plausible assumptions about missing data. However, with longitudinal data on, for example, patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL), the missingness patterns can be complicated because data are often missing both at specific timepoints (interim missingness) and following loss to follow-up. Methods to handle these complex missing data patterns have not been developed for CEA, and must recognize that data may be missing not at random, while accommodating both the correlation between costs and health outcomes and the non-normal distribution of these endpoints. We develop flexible Bayesian longitudinal models that allow the impact of interim missingness and loss to follow-up to be disentangled. This modeling framework enables studies to undertake sensitivity analyses according to various contextually plausible missing data mechanisms, jointly model costs and outcomes using appropriate distributions, and recognize the correlation among these endpoints over time. We exemplify these models in the REFLUX study in which 52% of participants had HRQoL data missing for at least one timepoint over the 5-year follow-up period. We provide guidance for sensitivity analyses and accompanying code to help future studies handle these complex forms of missing data.

Background: In Africa, the clinical syndrome of pneumonia remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children in the post-neonatal period. This represents a significant burden on in-patient services. The targeted use of oxygen and simple, non-invasive methods of respiratory support may be a highly cost-effective means of improving outcome, but the optimal oxygen saturation threshold that results in benefit and the best strategy for delivery are yet to be tested in adequately powered randomised controlled trials. There is, however, an accumulating literature about the harms of oxygen therapy across a range of acute and emergency situations that have stimulated a number of trials investigating permissive hypoxia. Methods: In 4200 African children, aged 2 months to 12 years, presenting to 5 hospitals in East Africa with respiratory distress and hypoxia (oxygen saturation < 92%), the COAST trial will simultaneously evaluate two related interventions (targeted use of oxygen with respect to the optimal oxygen saturation threshold for treatment and mode of delivery) to reduce shorter-term mortality at 48-hours (primary endpoint), and longer-term morbidity and mortality to 28 days in a fractional factorial design, that compares: Liberal oxygenation (recommended care) compared with a strategy that permits hypoxia to SpO2 > or = 80% (permissive hypoxia); andHigh flow using AIrVO2TM compared with low flow delivery (routine care). Discussion: The overarching objective is to address the key research gaps in the therapeutic use of oxygen in resource-limited setting in order to provide a better evidence base for future management guidelines. The trial has been designed to address the poor outcomes of children in sub-Saharan Africa, which are associated with high rates of in-hospital mortality, 9-10% (for those with oxygen saturations of 80-92%) and 26-30% case fatality for those with oxygen saturations Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN15622505 Trial status: Recruiting

BackgroundCOVID-19 has disproportionately affected minority ethnic populations in the UK. Our aim was to quantify ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 outcomes during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in England.MethodsWe conducted an observational cohort study of adults (aged ≥18 years) registered with primary care practices in England for whom electronic health records were available through the OpenSAFELY platform, and who had at least 1 year of continuous registration at the start of each study period (Feb 1 to Aug 3, 2020 [wave 1], and Sept 1 to Dec 31, 2020 [wave 2]). Individual-level primary care data were linked to data from other sources on the outcomes of interest: SARS-CoV-2 testing and positive test results and COVID-19-related hospital admissions, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and death. The exposure was self-reported ethnicity as captured on the primary care record, grouped into five high-level census categories (White, South Asian, Black, other, and mixed) and 16 subcategories across these five categories, as well as an unknown ethnicity category. We used multivariable Cox regression to examine ethnic differences in the outcomes of interest. Models were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, clinical factors and comorbidities, and household size, with stratification by geographical region.FindingsOf 17 288 532 adults included in the study (excluding care home residents), 10 877 978 (62·9%) were White, 1 025 319 (5·9%) were South Asian, 340 912 (2·0%) were Black, 170 484 (1·0%) were of mixed ethnicity, 320 788 (1·9%) were of other ethnicity, and 4 553 051 (26·3%) were of unknown ethnicity. In wave 1, the likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection was slightly higher in the South Asian group (adjusted hazard ratio 1·08 [95% CI 1·07-1·09]), Black group (1·08 [1·06-1·09]), and mixed ethnicity group (1·04 [1·02-1·05]) and was decreased in the other ethnicity group (0·77 [0·76-0·78]) relative to the White group. The risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher in the South Asian group (1·99 [1·94-2·04]), Black group (1·69 [1·62-1·77]), mixed ethnicity group (1·49 [1·39-1·59]), and other ethnicity group (1·20 [1·14-1·28]). Compared with the White group, the four remaining high-level ethnic groups had an increased risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisation (South Asian group 1·48 [1·41-1·55], Black group 1·78 [1·67-1·90], mixed ethnicity group 1·63 [1·45-1·83], other ethnicity group 1·54 [1·41-1·69]), COVID-19-related ICU admission (2·18 [1·92-2·48], 3·12 [2·65-3·67], 2·96 [2·26-3·87], 3·18 [2·58-3·93]), and death (1·26 [1·15-1·37], 1·51 [1·31-1·71], 1·41 [1·11-1·81], 1·22 [1·00-1·48]). In wave 2, the risks of hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death relative to the White group were increased in the South Asian group but attenuated for the Black group compared with these risks in wave 1. Disaggregation into 16 ethnicity groups showed important heterogeneity within the five broader categories.InterpretationSome minority ethnic populations in England have excess risks of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and of adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared with the White population, even after accounting for differences in sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics. Causes are likely to be multifactorial, and delineating the exact mechanisms is crucial. Tackling ethnic inequalities will require action across many fronts, including reducing structural inequalities, addressing barriers to equitable care, and improving uptake of testing and vaccination.FundingMedical Research Council.

ObjectivesTo compare approaches for obtaining relative and absolute estimates of risk of 28-day COVID-19 mortality for adults in the general population of England in the context of changing levels of circulating infection.DesignThree designs were compared. (A) case-cohort which does not explicitly account for the time-changing prevalence of COVID-19 infection, (B) 28-day landmarking, a series of sequential overlapping sub-studies incorporating time-updating proxy measures of the prevalence of infection, and (C) daily landmarking. Regression models were fitted to predict 28-day COVID-19 mortality.SettingWorking on behalf of NHS England, we used clinical data from adult patients from all regions of England held in the TPP SystmOne electronic health record system, linked to Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data, using the OpenSAFELY platform.ParticipantsEligible participants were adults aged 18 or over, registered at a general practice using TPP software on 1st March 2020 with recorded sex, postcode and ethnicity. 11,972,947 individuals were included, and 7,999 participants experienced a COVID-19 related death. The study period lasted 100 days, ending 8th June 2020.PredictorsA range of demographic characteristics and comorbidities were used as potential predictors. Local infection prevalence was estimated with three proxies: modelled based on local prevalence and other key factors; rate of A&E COVID-19 related attendances; and rate of suspected COVID-19 cases in primary care.Main outcome measuresCOVID-19 related death.ResultsAll models discriminated well between patients who did and did not experience COVID-19 related death, with C-statistics ranging from 0.92-0.94. Accurate estimates of absolute risk required data on local infection prevalence, with modelled estimates providing the best performance.ConclusionsReliable estimates of absolute risk need to incorporate changing local prevalence of infection. Simple models can provide very good discrimination and may simplify implementation of risk prediction tools in practice.

SummaryBlack and minority ethnic groups were at raised risk of dying from COVID-19 during the first few months of the COVID-19 epidemic in England. We aimed to investigate whether ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 deaths were similar in the more recent “second wave” of the epidemic. Working on behalf of NHS England, we used primary care and linked ONS mortality data within the OpenSAFELY platform. All adults in the database at 1st September 2020 and with at least 1 year of prior follow-up and a record of ethnicity were included. The outcome was COVID-19-related death (death with COVID-19 listed as a cause of death on the death certificate). Follow-up was to 9th November 2020. Hazard ratios for ethnicity were calculated using Cox regression models adjusted for age and sex, and then further adjusted for deprivation. 13,223,154 people were included. During the study period, people of South Asian ethnicity were at higher risk of death due to COVID-19 than white people after adjusting for age and sex (HR = 3.47, 95% CI 2.99-4.03); the association attenuated somewhat on further adjustment for index of multiple deprivation (HR = 2.86, 2.46-3.33, Table 2). In contrast with the first wave of the epidemic, we found little evidence of a raised risk in black or other ethnic groups compared to white (HR for black vs white = 1.28, 0.87-1.88 adjusted for age and sex; and 1.01, 0.69-1.49 further adjusted for deprivation). Our findings suggest that ethnic inequalities in the risk of dying COVID-19-related death have changed between the first and early second wave of the epidemic in England.

Background Vasopressors are administered to critical care patients to avoid hypotension, which is associated with myocardial injury, kidney injury and death. However, they work by causing vasoconstriction, which may reduce blood flow and cause other adverse effects. A mean arterial pressure target typically guides administration. An individual patient data meta-analysis (Lamontagne F, Day AG, Meade MO, Cook DJ, Guyatt GH, Hylands M, et al. Pooled analysis of higher versus lower blood pressure targets for vasopressor therapy septic and vasodilatory shock. Intensive Care Med 2018;44:12–21) suggested that greater exposure, through higher mean arterial pressure targets, may increase risk of death in older patients. Objective To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reduced vasopressor exposure through permissive hypotension (i.e. a lower mean arterial pressure target of 60–65 mmHg) in older critically ill patients. Design A pragmatic, randomised clinical trial with integrated economic evaluation. Setting Sixty-five NHS adult general critical care units. Participants Critically ill patients aged ≥ 65 years receiving vasopressors for vasodilatory hypotension. Interventions Intervention – permissive hypotension (i.e. a mean arterial pressure target of 60–65 mmHg). Control (usual care) – a mean arterial pressure target at the treating clinician’s discretion. Main outcome measures The primary clinical outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality. The primary cost-effectiveness outcome was 90-day incremental net monetary benefit. Secondary outcomes included receipt and duration of advanced respiratory and renal support, mortality at critical care and acute hospital discharge, and questionnaire assessment of cognitive decline and health-related quality of life at 90 days and 1 year. Results Of 2600 patients randomised, 2463 (permissive hypotension, n = 1221; usual care, n = 1242) were analysed for the primary clinical outcome. Permissive hypotension resulted in lower exposure to vasopressors than usual care [mean duration 46.0 vs. 55.9 hours, difference –9.9 hours (95% confidence interval –14.3 to –5.5 hours); total noradrenaline-equivalent dose 31.5 mg vs. 44.3 mg, difference –12.8 mg (95% CI –18.0 mg to –17.6 mg)]. By 90 days, 500 (41.0%) patients in the permissive hypotension group and 544 (43.8%) patients in the usual-care group had died (absolute risk difference –2.85%, 95% confidence interval –6.75% to 1.05%; p = 0.154). Adjustment for prespecified baseline variables resulted in an odds ratio for 90-day mortality of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.98) favouring permissive hypotension. There were no significant differences in prespecified secondary outcomes or subgroups; however, patients with chronic hypertension showed a mortality difference favourable to permissive hypotension. At 90 days, permissive hypotension showed similar costs to usual care. However, with higher incremental life-years and quality-adjusted life-years in the permissive hypotension group, the incremental net monetary benefit was positive, but with high statistical uncertainty (£378, 95% confidence interval −£1347 to £2103). Limitations The intervention was unblinded, with risk of bias minimised through central allocation concealment and a primary outcome not subject to observer bias. The control group event rate was higher than anticipated. Conclusions In critically ill patients aged ≥ 65 years receiving vasopressors for vasodilatory hypotension, permissive hypotension did not significantly reduce 90-day mortality compared with usual care. The absolute treatment effect on 90-day mortality, based on 95% confidence intervals, was between a 6.8-percentage reduction and a 1.1-percentage increase in mortality. Future work Future work should (1) update the individual patient data meta-analysis, (2) explore approaches for evaluating heterogeneity of treatment effect and (3) explore 65 trial conduct, including use of deferred consent, to inform future trials. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10580502. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

ObjectiveTo assess associations of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) with patient profile, resource use, cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in stable patients post-myocardial infarction (MI).MethodsThe global, prospective, observational TIGRIS Study enrolled 9126 patients 1–3 years post-MI. HRQoL was assessed at enrolment and 6-month intervals using the patient-reported EuroQol-5 dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, with scores anchored at 0 (worst possible) and 1 (perfect health). Resource use, CV events and mortality were recorded during 2-years’ follow-up. Regression models estimated the associations of index score at enrolment with patient characteristics, resource use, CV events and mortality over 2-years’ follow-up.ResultsAmong 8978 patients who completed the EQ-5D questionnaire, 52% reported ‘some’ or ‘severe’ problems on one or more health dimensions. Factors associated with a lower index score were: female sex, older age, obesity, smoking, higher heart rate, less formal education, presence of comorbidity (eg, angina, stroke), emergency room visit in the previous 6 months and non-ST-elevation MI as the index event. Compared with an index score of 1 at enrolment, a lower index score was associated with higher risk of all-cause death, with an adjusted rate ratio of 3.09 (95% CI 2.20 to 4.31), and of a CV event, with a rate ratio of 2.31 (95% CI 1.76 to 3.03). Patients with lower index score at enrolment had almost two times as many hospitalisations over 2-years’ follow-up.ConclusionsClinicians managing patients post-acute coronary syndrome should recognise that a poorer HRQoL is clearly linked to risk of hospitalisations, major CV events and death.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT01866904) (https://clinicaltrials.gov).

BackgroundCOVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on ethnic minority populations, both in the UK and internationally. To date, much of the evidence has been derived from studies within single healthcare settings, mainly those hospitalised with COVID-19. Working on behalf of NHS England, the aim of this study was to identify ethnic differences in the risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation and mortality using a large general population cohort in England.MethodsWe conducted an observational cohort study using linked primary care records of 17.5 million adults between 1 February 2020 and 3 August 2020. Exposure was self-reported ethnicity collapsed into the 5 and 16 ethnicity categories of the English Census. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify ethnic differences in the risk of being tested and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 related intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and COVID-19 mortality, adjusted for socio-demographic factors, clinical co-morbidities, geographic region, care home residency, and household size.ResultsA total of 17,510,002 adults were included in the study; 63% white (n=11,030,673), 6% south Asian (n=1,034,337), 2% black (n=344,889), 2% other (n=324,730), 1% mixed (n=172,551), and 26% unknown (n=4,602,822). After adjusting for measured explanatory factors, south Asian, black, and mixed groups were marginally more likely to be tested (south Asian HR 1.08, 95%CI 1.07-1.09; black HR 1.08; 95%CI 1.06-1.09, mixed HR 1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.05), and substantially more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with white adults (south Asian HR 2.02. 95% CI 1.97-2.07; black HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.61-1.76; mixed HR 1.46, 95%CI 1.36-1.56). The risk of being admitted to ICU for COVID-19 was substantially increased in all ethnic minority groups compared with white adults (south Asian HR 2.22, 95%CI 1.96-2.52; black HR 3.07, 95%CI 2.61-3.61; mixed HR 2.86, 95%CI 2.19-3.75, other HR 2.86, 95%CI 2.31-3.63). Risk of COVID-19 mortality was increased by 25-56% in ethnic minority groups compared with white adults (south Asian HR 1.27, 95%CI 1.17-1.38; black HR 1.55, 95%CI 1.38-1.75; mixed HR 1.40, 95%CI 1.12-1.76; other HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.05-1.49).We observed heterogeneity of associations after disaggregation into detailed ethnic groupings; Indian and African groups were at higher risk of all outcomes; Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Caribbean groups were less or equally likely to be tested for SARS-CoV-2, but at higher risk of all other outcomes, Chinese groups were less likely to be tested for and test positive for SARS-CoV-2, more likely to be admitted to ICU, and equally likely to die from COVID-19.ConclusionsWe found evidence of substantial ethnic inequalities in the risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, ICU admission, and mortality, which persisted after accounting for explanatory factors, including household size. It is likely that some of this excess risk is related to factors not captured in clinical records such as occupation, experiences of structural discrimination, or inequitable access to health and social services. Prioritizing linkage between health, social care, and employment data and engaging with ethnic minority communities to better understand their lived experiences is essential for generating evidence to prevent further widening of inequalities in a timely and actionable manner.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly affected mortality worldwide1. There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, and this requires new approaches for the timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England, we created OpenSAFELY-a secure health analytics platform that covers 40% of all patients in England and holds patient data within the existing data centre of a major vendor of primary care electronic health records. Here we used OpenSAFELY to examine factors associated with COVID-19-related death. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19-related deaths. COVID-19-related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio (HR) 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.53-1.65)); greater age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared with people of white ethnicity, Black and South Asian people were at higher risk, even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48 (1.29-1.69) and 1.45 (1.32-1.58), respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical factors associated with COVID-19-related death in one of the largest cohort studies on this topic so far. More patient records are rapidly being added to OpenSAFELY, we will update and extend our results regularly.

IntroductionEven though respiratory support is a common intervention in paediatric critical care, there is no randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence regarding the effectiveness of two commonly used modes of non-invasive respiratory support (NRS), continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and high-flow nasal cannula therapy (HFNC). FIRST-line support for assistance in breathing in children is a master protocol of two pragmatic non-inferiority RCTs to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of HFNC (compared with CPAP) as the first-line mode of support in critically ill children.Methods and analysisWe will recruit participants over a 30-month period at 25 UK paediatric critical care units (paediatric intensive care units/high-dependency units). Patients are eligible if admitted/accepted for admission, aged >36 weeks corrected gestational age and Ethics and disseminationThis master protocol received favourable ethical opinion from National Health Service East of England—Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee (reference: 19/EE/0185) and approval from the Health Research Authority (reference: 260536). Results will be disseminated via publications in peer-reviewed medical journals and presentations at national and international conferences.Trial registration numberISRCTN60048867

BackgroundEstablishing who is at risk from a novel rapidly arising cause of death, and why, requires a new approach to epidemiological research with very large datasets and timely data. Working on behalf of NHS England we therefore set out to deliver a secure and pseudonymised analytics platform inside the data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor establishing coverage across detailed primary care records for a substantial proportion of all patients in England. The following results are preliminary.Data sourcesPrimary care electronic health records managed by the electronic health record vendor TPP, pseudonymously linked to patient-level data from the COVID-19 Patient Notification System (CPNS) for death of hospital inpatients with confirmed COVID-19, using the new OpenSAFELY platform.Population17,425,445 adults.Time period1st Feb 2020 to 25th April 2020.Primary outcomeDeath in hospital among people with confirmed COVID-19.MethodsCohort study analysed by Cox-regression to generate hazard ratios: age and sex adjusted, and multiply adjusted for co-variates selected prospectively on the basis of clinical interest and prior findings.ResultsThere were 5683 deaths attributed to COVID-19. In summary after full adjustment, death from COVID-19 was strongly associated with: being male (hazard ratio 1.99, 95%CI 1.88-2.10); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); uncontrolled diabetes (HR 2.36 95% CI 2.18-2.56); severe asthma (HR 1.25 CI 1.08-1.44); and various other prior medical conditions. Compared to people with ethnicity recorded as white, black people were at higher risk of death, with only partial attenuation in hazard ratios from the fully adjusted model (age-sex adjusted HR 2.17 95% CI 1.84-2.57; fully adjusted HR 1.71 95% CI 1.44-2.02); with similar findings for Asian people (age-sex adjusted HR 1.95 95% CI 1.73-2.18; fully adjusted HR 1.62 95% CI 1.431.82).ConclusionsWe have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for death from COVID-19, some of which were not previously well characterised, in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. People from Asian and black groups are at markedly increased risk of in-hospital death from COVID-19, and contrary to some prior speculation this is only partially attributable to pre-existing clinical risk factors or deprivation; further research into the drivers of this association is therefore urgently required. Deprivation is also a major risk factor with, again, little of the excess risk explained by co-morbidity or other risk factors. The findings for clinical risk factors are concordant with policies in the UK for protecting those at highest risk. Our OpenSAFELY platform is rapidly adding further NHS patients’ records; we will update and extend these results regularly.

Background Uncomplicated acute appendicitis can be managed with non-operative (antibiotic) treatment, but laparoscopic appendicectomy remains the first-line management in the UK. During the COVID-19 pandemic the practice altered, with more patients offered antibiotics as treatment. A large-scale observational study was designed comparing operative and non-operative management of appendicitis. The aim of this study was to evaluate 90-day follow-up. Methods A prospective, cohort study at 97 sites in the UK and Republic of Ireland included adult patients with a clinical or radiological diagnosis of appendicitis that either had surgery or non-operative management. Propensity score matching was conducted using age, sex, BMI, frailty, co-morbidity, Adult Appendicitis Score and C-reactive protein. Outcomes were 90-day treatment failure in the non-operative group, and in the matched groups 30-day complications, length of hospital stay (LOS) and total healthcare costs associated with each treatment. Results A total of 3420 patients were recorded: 1402 (41 per cent) had initial antibiotic management and 2018 (59 per cent) had appendicectomy. At 90-day follow-up, antibiotics were successful in 80 per cent (1116) of cases. After propensity score matching (2444 patients), fewer overall complications (OR 0.36 (95 per cent c.i. 0.26 to 0.50)) and a shorter median LOS (2.5 versus 3 days, P < 0.001) were noted in the antibiotic management group. Accounting for interval appendicectomy rates, the mean total cost was €1034 lower per patient managed without surgery. Conclusion This study found that antibiotics is an alternative first-line treatment for adult acute appendicitis and can lead to cost reductions., Adult appendicitis is the most common emergency general surgery condition worldwide, and is normally treated with laparoscopic appendicectomy despite evidence that it can be treated safely with antibiotics. The authors followed up patients who received operative treatment and non-operative treatment with antibiotics during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Non-operative management was associated with a shorter length of hospital stay, fewer complications and a significant health cost reduction compared with operative management.

SUMMARY Objectives To evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of changing opening times, introducing a donor health report and reducing the minimum inter‐donation interval for donors attending static centres. Background Evidence is required about the effect of changes to the blood collection service on costs and the frequency of donation. Methods/Materials This study estimated the effect of changes to the blood collection service in England on the annual number of whole‐blood donations by current donors. We used donors' responses to a stated preference survey, donor registry data on donation frequency and deferral rates from the INTERVAL trial. Costs measured were those anticipated to differ between strategies. We reported the cost per additional unit of blood collected for each strategy versus current practice. Strategies with a cost per additional unit of whole blood less than £30 (an estimate of the current cost of collection) were judged likely to be cost‐effective. Results In static donor centres, extending opening times to evenings and weekends provided an additional unit of whole blood at a cost of £23 and £29, respectively. Introducing a health report cost £130 per additional unit of blood collected. Although the strategy of reducing the minimum inter‐donation interval had the lowest cost per additional unit of blood collected (£10), this increased the rate of deferrals due to low haemoglobin (Hb). Conclusion The introduction of a donor health report is unlikely to provide a sufficient increase in donation frequency to justify the additional costs. A more cost‐effective change is to extend opening hours for blood collection at static centres.

The Psychological Outcomes following a nurse-led Preventative Psychological Intervention for critically ill patients trial is a cluster-randomised controlled trial of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a complex nurse-led preventative psychological intervention compared with usual care in reducing patient-reported post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity, and other reported psychological morbidities, at six months among Level 3 (intensive care) patients in adult general critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This paper describes the proposed statistical and health economic analyses for the Psychological Outcomes following a nurse-led Preventative Psychological Intervention for critically ill patients trial. It is important to complete and publish this plan before inspecting and locking the trial data to ensure that post hoc and data-derived decisions are avoided. Trial registration: ISRCTN53448131

The long-term progression of coronary artery disease as defined by the natural disease course years after a myocardial infarction (MI) is an important but poorly studied area of clinical research. The long-Term rIsk, clinical manaGement, and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease in post-myocardial infarction patients (TIGRIS) study was designed to address this knowledge gap by evaluating patient management and clinical outcomes following MI in different regions worldwide. TIGRIS (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01866904) is a multicenter, observational, prospective, longitudinal study enrolling patients with history of MI 1 to 3 years previously and high risk of developing atherothrombotic events in a general-practice setting. The primary objective of TIGRIS is to evaluate clinical events (time to first occurrence of any event from the composite cardiovascular endpoint of MI, unstable angina with urgent revascularization, stroke, or death from any cause), and healthcare resource utilization associated with hospitalization for these events (hospitalization duration and procedures) during follow-up. Overall, 9225 patients were enrolled between June 2013 and November 2014 and are being followed in 369 different centers worldwide. This will allow for the description of regional differences in patient characteristics, risk profiles, medical treatment patterns, clinical outcomes, and healthcare resource utilization. Patients will be followed for up to 3 years. Here we report the rationale, design, patient distribution, and selected baseline characteristics of the TIGRIS study. TIGRIS will describe real-world management, quality of life (self-reported health), and healthcare resource utilization for patients with stable coronary artery disease ≥1 year post-MI.

BACKGROUND: After a single-center trial and observational studies suggesting that early, goal-directed therapy (EGDT) reduced mortality from septic shock, three multicenter trials (ProCESS, ARISE, and ProMISe) showed no benefit. This meta-analysis of individual patient data from the three recent trials was designed prospectively to improve statistical power and explore heterogeneity of treatment effect of EGDT. METHODS: We harmonized entry criteria, intervention protocols, outcomes, resource-use measures, and data collection across the trials and specified all analyses before unblinding. After completion of the trials, we pooled data, excluding the protocol-based standard-therapy group from the ProCESS trial, and resolved residual differences. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included 1-year survival, organ support, and hospitalization costs. We tested for treatment-by-subgroup interactions for 16 patient characteristics and 6 care-delivery characteristics. RESULTS: We studied 3723 patients at 138 hospitals in seven countries. Mortality at 90 days was similar for EGDT (462 of 1852 patients [24.9%]) and usual care (475 of 1871 patients [25.4%]); the adjusted odds ratio was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.14; P=0.68). EGDT was associated with greater mean (±SD) use of intensive care (5.3±7.1 vs. 4.9±7.0 days, P=0.04) and cardiovascular support (1.9±3.7 vs. 1.6±2.9 days, P=0.01) than was usual care; other outcomes did not differ significantly, although average costs were higher with EGDT. Subgroup analyses showed no benefit from EGDT for patients with worse shock (higher serum lactate level, combined hypotension and hyperlactatemia, or higher predicted risk of death) or for hospitals with a lower propensity to use vasopressors or fluids during usual resuscitation. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis of individual patient data, EGDT did not result in better outcomes than usual care and was associated with higher hospitalization costs across a broad range of patient and hospital characteristics. (Funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences and others; PRISM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02030158.)

BACKGROUND: Evidence is lacking on long-term outcomes in unselected patients surviving the first year following myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS AND RESULTS: The TIGRIS (long-Term rIsk, clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease in post-myocardial infarction patients) prospective registry enrolled 9176 eligible patients aged ≥50 years, 1-3 years post-MI, from 25 countries. All had ≥1 risk factor: age ≥ 65 years, diabetes mellitus, second prior MI, multivessel coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD). Primary outcome was a composite of MI, unstable angina with urgent revascularization, stroke, or all-cause death at 2-year follow-up. Bleeding requiring hospitalization was also recorded. 9027 patients (98.4%) provided follow-up data: the primary outcome occurred in 621 (7.0%), all-cause mortality in 295 (3.3%), and bleeding in 109 (1.2%) patients. Events accrued linearly over time. In multivariable analyses, qualifying risk factors were associated with increased risk of primary outcome (incidence rate ratio [RR] per 100 patient-years [95% confidence interval]): CKD 2.06 (1.66, 2.55), second prior MI 1.71 (1.38, 2.10), diabetes mellitus 1.63 (1.39, 1.92), age ≥ 65 years 1.53 (1.28, 1.83), and multivessel disease 1.24 (1.05, 1.48). Risk of bleeding events was greater in older patients (vs

BACKGROUND: Instrumental variable (IV) analysis can estimate treatment effects in the presence of residual or unmeasured confounding. In settings wherein measures of baseline risk severity are unavailable, IV designs are, therefore, particularly appealing, but, where established measures of risk severity are available, it is unclear whether IV methods are preferable. OBJECTIVE: We compared regression with an IV design to estimate the effect of intensive care unit (ICU) transfer on mortality in a study with well-established measures of risk severity. RESEARCH DESIGN: We use ICU bed availability at the time of assessment for ICU transfer as an instrument. Bed availability increases the chance of ICU admission, contains little information about patient characteristics, and it is unlikely that bed availability has any direct effect on in-hospital mortality. SUBJECTS: We used a cohort study of deteriorating ward patients assessed for critical care unit admission, in 49 UK National Health Service hospitals between November 1, 2010, and December 31, 2011. MEASURES: Detailed demographic, physiological, and comorbidity data were collected for all patients. RESULTS: The risk adjustment methods reported that, after controlling for all measured covariates including measures of risk severity, ICU transfer was associated with higher 28-day mortality, with a risk difference of 7.2% (95% confidence interval=5.3%-9.1%). The IV estimate of ICU transfer was -5.4% (95% confidence interval=-47.1% to 36.3%) and applies to the subsample of patients whose transfer was "encouraged" by bed availability. CONCLUSIONS: IV estimates indicate that ICU care is beneficial but are imprecisely estimated. Risk-adjusted estimates are more precise but, even with a rich set of covariates, report that ICU care is harmful.

Background There is a growing prevalence of diabetes worldwide in patients in the general population, including those with prior myocardial infarction (MI). Purpose To describe the characteristics, health status, resource utilization and clinical adverse events of stable post-MI patients with diabetes. Methods The long-Term rIsk, clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease (TIGRIS) prospective observational study (NCT01866904) obtained data from 8985 stable patients 1–3 years post-MI from 369 centres in 25 countries, who provided diabetes status (no, yes, insulin-treated) and follow-up. Diabetes status, other patient characteristics, medications, medical history and healthcare resource utilization were recorded at enrolment. Health status was assessed at enrolment, 1 and 2 years by EQ-5D-3L and converted to an EQ-5D score. Deaths, cardiovascular (CV) events, bleeding events and related hospitalizations were recorded during 2 years of follow-up. Results Diabetes mellitus (DM) was prevalent at enrolment in 2966 (33%) patients of whom 872 (29%) were insulin-treated. Compared to patients without DM, those with DM had a higher mean body mass index (28.2 vs 26.6kg/m2) and heart rate (71 vs 67bpm), were more likely to have had ≥2 prior MIs (12% vs 10%), chronic kidney disease (10% vs 6%), peripheral artery disease (10% vs 5%), heart failure (15% vs 10%), anaemia (4% vs 2%), angina (12% vs 9%), stroke (6% vs 4%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (9% vs 7%). Patients with DM reported more problems for each domain of the EQ-5D (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression), which resulted in a lower mean EQ-5D utility score at enrolment (0.83±0.22 for no-diabetes vs 0.86±0.19 for diabetes). Moreover, they also had higher CV hospitalization rates in the 6 months prior to enrolment (6.4% vs 5%). All these measures were more marked in insulin-dependent diabetics. The incidences of all-cause death, CV death and the composite of CV death, MI and stroke were all significantly higher in patients with DM, especially those on insulin (see Figure). For CV death, MI and stroke the 2-year risk ratios, compared to patients without DM, were 2.64 (P Figure 1 Conclusions Within a global population of stable post-MI patients, those with DM (especially those on insulin) have poorer health status and EQ-5D utility score, higher hospitalization rates and worse clinical outcomes compared with those without DM. Thus, in cardiac clinics worldwide, patients with DM require particularly close attention. Acknowledgement/Funding The study was funded by AstraZeneca

The 65 trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, open-label, randomised clinical trial of permissive hypotension (targeting a mean arterial pressure target of 60–65 mmHg during vasopressor therapy) versus usual care in critically ill patients aged 65 years or over with vasodilatory hypotension. The trial will recruit 2600 patients from 65 United Kingdom adult general critical care units. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality at 90 days. An economic evaluation is embedded. This paper describes the proposed statistical and health economic analysis for the 65 trial.

Importance: A meta-analysis of outcomes during the 6 months after intensive care unit (ICU) discharge indicate a prevalence for clinically important posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms of 25%. Objective: To determine whether a nurse-led preventive, complex psychological intervention, initiated in the ICU, reduces patient-reported PTSD symptom severity at 6 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter, parallel-group, cluster-randomized clinical trial with integrated economic and process evaluations conducted in 24 ICUs in the United Kingdom. Participants were critically ill patients who regained mental capacity following receipt of level 3 (intensive) care. A total of 2961 eligible patients were identified from September 2015 to January 2017. A total of 2048 were approached for participation in the ICU, of which 1458 provided informed consent. Follow-up was completed December 2017. Interventions: Twenty four ICUs were randomized 1:1 to the intervention or control group. Intervention ICUs (n = 12; 669 participants) delivered usual care during a baseline period followed by an intervention period. The preventive, complex psychological intervention comprised promotion of a therapeutic ICU environment plus 3 stress support sessions and a relaxation and recovery program delivered by trained ICU nurses to high-risk (acutely stressed) patients. Control ICUs (n = 12; 789 participants) delivered usual care in both baseline and intervention periods. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary clinical outcome was PTSD symptom severity among survivors at 6 months measured using the PTSD Symptom Scale-Self-Report questionnaire (score range, 0-51, with higher scores indicating greater symptom severity; the minimal clinically important difference was considered to be 4.2 points). Results: Among 1458 enrolled patients (mean [SD] age, 58 [16] years; 599 women [41%]), 1353 (93%) completed the study and were included in the final analysis. At 6 months, the mean PTSD Symptom Scale-Self-Report questionnaire score in intervention ICUs was 11.8 (baseline period) compared with 11.5 (intervention period) (difference, -0.40 [95% CI, -2.46 to 1.67]) and in control ICUs, 10.1 (baseline period) compared with 10.2 (intervention period) (difference, 0.06 [95% CI, -1.74 to 1.85]) between periods. There was no significant difference in PTSD symptom severity at 6 months (treatment effect estimate [difference in differences] of -0.03 [95% CI, -2.58 to 2.52]; P =.98). Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill patients in the ICU, a nurse-led preventive, complex psychological intervention did not significantly reduce patient-reported PTSD symptom severity at 6 months. These findings do not support the use of this psychological intervention. Trial Registration: ISRCTN53448131.

BACKGROUND: For critically ill adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury (TBI), we assessed the clinical and cost-effectiveness of: (a) Management in dedicated neurocritical care units versus combined neuro/general critical care units within neuroscience centres. (b) 'Early' transfer to a neuroscience centre versus 'no or late' transfer for those who present at a non-neuroscience centre. METHODS: The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study included prospective admissions following acute TBI to 67 UK adult critical care units during 2009-11. Data were collected on baseline case-mix, mortality, resource use, and at six months, Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), and quality of life (QOL) (EuroQol 5D-3L). We report incremental effectiveness, costs and cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) of the alternative care locations, adjusting for baseline differences with validated risk prediction models. We tested the robustness of results in sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: Dedicated neurocritical care unit patients (N = 1324) had similar six-month mortality, higher QOL (mean gain 0.048, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.099) and increased average costs compared with those managed in combined neuro/general units (N = 1341), with a lifetime cost per QALY gained of £14,000. 'Early' transfer to a neuroscience centre (N = 584) was associated with lower mortality (odds ratio 0.52, 0.34-0.80), higher QOL for survivors (mean gain 0.13, 0.032-0.225), but positive incremental costs (£15,001, £11,123 to £18,880) compared with 'late or no transfer' (N = 263). The lifetime cost per QALY gained for 'early' transfer was £11,000. CONCLUSIONS: For critically ill adult patients with acute TBI, within neuroscience centres management in dedicated neurocritical care units versus combined neuro/general units led to improved QoL and higher costs, on average, but these differences were not statistically significant. This study finds that 'early' transfer to a neuroscience centre is associated with reduced mortality, improvement in QOL and is cost-effective.

Importance Vasopressors are commonly administered to intensive care unit (ICU) patients to raise blood pressure. Balancing risks and benefits of vasopressors is a challenge, particularly in older patients. Objective To determine whether reducing exposure to vasopressors through permissive hypotension (mean arterial pressure [MAP] target, 60-65 mm Hg) reduces mortality at 90 days in ICU patients aged 65 years or older with vasodilatory hypotension. Design, Setting, and Participants A multicenter, pragmatic, randomized clinical trial was conducted in 65 ICUs in the United Kingdom and included 2600 randomized patients aged 65 years or older with vasodilatory hypotension (assessed by treating clinician). The study was conducted from July 2017 to March 2019, and follow-up was completed in August 2019. Interventions Patients were randomized 1:1 to vasopressors guided either by MAP target (60-65 mm Hg, permissive hypotension) (n = 1291) or according to usual care (at the discretion of treating clinicians) (n = 1307). Main Outcome and Measures The primary clinical outcome was all-cause mortality at 90 days. Results Of 2600 randomized patients, after removal of those who declined or had withdrawn consent, 2463 (95%) were included in the analysis of the primary outcome (mean [SD] age 75 years [7 years]; 1387 [57%] men). Patients randomized to the permissive hypotension group had lower exposure to vasopressors compared with those in the usual care group (median duration 33 hours vs 38 hours; difference in medians, –5.0; 95% CI, –7.8 to –2.2 hours; total dose in norepinephrine equivalents median, 17.7 mg vs 26.4 mg; difference in medians, –8.7 mg; 95% CI, –12.8 to −4.6 mg). At 90 days, 500 of 1221 (41.0%) in the permissive hypotension compared with 544 of 1242 (43.8%) in the usual care group had died (absolute risk difference, −2.85%; 95% CI, −6.75 to 1.05;P = .15) (unadjusted relative risk, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.85-1.03). When adjusted for prespecified baseline variables, the odds ratio for 90-day mortality was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98). Serious adverse events were reported for 79 patients (6.2%) in the permissive care group and 75 patients (5.8%) in the usual care group. The most common serious adverse events were acute renal failure (41 [3.2%] vs 33 [2.5%]) and supraventricular cardiac arrhythmia (12 [0.9%] vs 13 [1.0%]). Conclusions and Relevance Among patients 65 years or older receiving vasopressors for vasodilatory hypotension, permissive hypotension compared with usual care did not result in a statistically significant reduction in mortality at 90 days. However, the confidence interval around the point estimate for the primary outcome should be considered when interpreting the clinical importance of the study. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier:ISRCTN10580502

BackgroundEvidence is required on the cost-effectiveness of alternative changes to the blood collection service.Objectives(1) To estimate the cost-effectiveness of alternative minimum interdonation intervals between whole-blood donations. (2) To investigate donors’ frequency of whole-blood donation according to alternative changes to the blood collection service. (3) To estimate the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for maintaining the supply of whole blood.MethodsWe undertook a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the INTERVAL trial, stated preference (SP) surveys to elicit donor preferences and a CEA of different strategies for blood collection. The strategies considered were reduced minimum intervals between whole-blood donations, introduction of a donor health report and changes to appointment availability and opening times at blood collection venues. The within-trial CEA included 44,863 donors, with men randomly assigned to 12- versus 10- versus 8-week interdonation intervals, and women to 16- versus 14- versus 12-week interdonation intervals. We undertook a SP survey of non-INTERVAL donors (100,000 invitees). We asked donors to state the frequency with which they would be willing to donate blood, according to the service attribute and level. The CEA compared changes to the blood service with current practice by combining the survey estimates with information from the NHS Blood and Transpant database (PULSE) and cost data. The target population was existing whole-blood donors in England, of whom approximately 85% currently donate whole blood at mobile (temporary) blood collection venues, with the remainder donating at static (permanent) blood collection centres. We reported the effects of the alternative strategies on the number of whole-blood donations, costs and cost-effectiveness.ResultsThe reduced donation interval strategies had higher deferral rates caused by low haemoglobin (Hb), but increased frequency of successful donation. For men in the 8- versus 12-week arm of the INTERVAL trial [Di Angelantonio E, Thompson SG, Kaptoge S, Moore C, Walker M, Armitage J,et al.Efficiency and safety of varying the frequency of whole blood donation (INTERVAL): a randomised trial of 45 000 donors.Lancet2017;390:2360–71], the Hb-related deferral rate was 5.7% per session versus 2.6% per session, but the average number of donations over 2 years increased by 1.71 (95% confidence interval 1.60 to 1.80). A total of 25,187 (25%) donors responded to the SP survey. For static donor centres, extending appointment availability to weekday evenings or weekends, or reduced intervals between blood donations, increased stated donation frequency by, on average, 0.5 donations per year. The CEA found that reducing the minimum interval, extending opening times to weekday evenings and extending opening times to weekends in all static donor centres would provide additional whole blood at a cost per additional unit of £10, £23 and £29, respectively, with similar results for donors with high-demand blood types.LimitationsThe study did not consider the long-term rates at which donors will leave the donation register, for example following higher rates of Hb-related deferral.ConclusionsExtending opening hours for blood donation to weekday evenings or weekends for all static donor centres are cost-effective ways of increasing the supply of high-demand blood types.Future workTo monitor the effects of new strategies on long-term donation frequency.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

BackgroundRuptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common vascular emergency. The mortality from emergency endovascular repair may be much lower than the 40–50% reported for open surgery.ObjectiveTo assess whether or not a strategy of endovascular repair compared with open repair reduces 30-day and mid-term mortality (including costs and cost-effectiveness) among patients with a suspected ruptured AAA.DesignRandomised controlled trial, with computer-generated telephone randomisation of participants in a 1 : 1 ratio, using variable block size, stratified by centre and without blinding.SettingVascular centres in the UK (n = 29) and Canada (n = 1) between 2009 and 2013.ParticipantsA total of 613 eligible participants (480 men) with a ruptured aneurysm, clinically diagnosed at the trial centre.InterventionsA total of 316 participants were randomised to the endovascular strategy group (immediate computerised tomography followed by endovascular repair if anatomically suitable or, if not suitable, open repair) and 297 were randomised to the open repair group (computerised tomography optional).Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality, with 30-day reinterventions, costs and disposal as early secondary outcome measures. Later outcome measures included 1- and 3-year mortality, reinterventions, quality of life (QoL) and cost-effectiveness.ResultsThe 30-day mortality was 35.4% in the endovascular strategy group and 37.4% in the open repair group [odds ratio (OR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 1.28;p = 0.62, and, after adjustment for age, sex and Hardman index, OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.33]. The endovascular strategy appeared to be more effective in women than in men (interaction testp = 0.02). More discharges in the endovascular strategy group (94%) than in the open repair group (77%) were directly to home (p p = 0.053), with a stronger benefit for the endovascular strategy in the subgroup of 502 participants in whom repair was started for a proven rupture (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.89;p = 0.009), whereas aneurysm-related reintervention rates were non-significantly higher in this group. At 3 years, considering all participants, there was a mean difference of 0.174 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% CI 0.002 to 0.353 QALYs) and, among the endovascular strategy group, a cost difference of –£2605 (95% CI –£5966 to £702), leading to 88% of estimates in the cost-effectiveness plane being in the quadrant showing the endovascular strategy to be ‘dominant’.LimitationsBecause of the pragmatic design of this trial, 33 participants in the endovascular strategy group and 26 in the open repair group breached randomisation allocation.ConclusionsThe endovascular strategy was not associated with a significant reduction in either 30-day mortality or cost but was associated with faster participant recovery. By 3 years, the endovascular strategy showed a survival and QALY gain and was highly likely to be cost-effective. Future research could include improving resuscitation for older persons with circulatory collapse, the impact of local anaesthesia and emergency consent procedures.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN48334791 and NCT00746122.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inHealth Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

IntroductionAcute psychological stress, as well as unusual experiences including hallucinations and delusions, are common in critical care unit patients and have been linked to post-critical care psychological morbidity such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety. Little high-quality research has been conducted to evaluate psychological interventions that could alleviate longer-term psychological morbidity in the critical care unit setting. Our research team developed and piloted a nurse-led psychological intervention, aimed at reducing patient-reported PTSD symptom severity and other adverse psychological outcomes at 6 months, for evaluation in the POPPI trial.Methods and analysisThis is a multicentre, parallel group, cluster-randomised clinical trial with a staggered roll-out of the intervention. The trial is being carried out at 24 (12 intervention, 12 control) NHS adult, general, critical care units in the UK and is evaluating the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a nurse-led preventative psychological intervention in reducing patient-reported PTSD symptom severity and other psychological morbidity at 6 months. All sites deliver usual care for 5 months (baseline period). Intervention group sites are then trained to carry out the POPPI intervention, and transition to delivering the intervention for the rest of the recruitment period. Control group sites deliver usual care for the duration of the recruitment period. The trial also includes a process evaluation conducted independently of the trial team.Ethics and disseminationThis protocol was reviewed and approved by the National Research Ethics Service South Central - Oxford B Research Ethics Committee (reference: 15/SC/0287). The first patient was recruited in September 2015 and results will be disseminated in 2018. The results will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer reviewed medical journals.Trial registration numberISRCTN53448131; Pre-results.

Background: Heroin overdose is a major cause of premature death. Naloxone is an opioid antagonist that is effective for the reversal of heroin overdose in emergency situations and can be used by nonmedical responders. Objective: Our aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of distributing naloxone to adults at risk of heroin overdose for use by nonmedical responders compared with no naloxone distribution in a European healthcare setting (United Kingdom). Methods: A Markov model with an integrated decision tree was developed based on an existing model, using UK data where available. We evaluated an intramuscular naloxone distribution reaching 30% of heroin users. Costs and effects were evaluated over a lifetime and discounted at 3.5%. The results were assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: The model estimated that distribution of intramuscular naloxone, would decrease overdose deaths by around 6.6%. In a population of 200,000 heroin users this equates to the prevention of 2,500 premature deaths at an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of £899. The sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Conclusions: Our evaluation suggests that the distribution of take-home naloxone decreased overdose deaths by around 6.6% and was cost-effective with an incremental cost per QALY gained well below a £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold set by UK decision-makers. The model code has been made available to aid future research. Further study is warranted on the impact of different formulations of naloxone on cost-effectiveness and the impact take-home naloxone has on the wider society.

Summary For a continuous treatment, the generalised propensity score (GPS) is defined as the conditional density of the treatment, given covariates. GPS adjustment may be implemented by including it as a covariate in an outcome regression. Here, the unbiased estimation of the dose–response function assumes correct specification of both the GPS and the outcome‐treatment relationship. This paper introduces a machine learning method, the ‘Super Learner’, to address model selection in this context. In the two‐stage estimation approach proposed, the Super Learner selects a GPS and then a dose–response function conditional on the GPS, as the convex combination of candidate prediction algorithms. We compare this approach with parametric implementations of the GPS and to regression methods. We contrast the methods in the Risk Adjustment in Neurocritical care cohort study, in which we estimate the marginal effects of increasing transfer time from emergency departments to specialised neuroscience centres, for patients with acute traumatic brain injury. With parametric models for the outcome, we find that dose–response curves differ according to choice of specification. With the Super Learner approach to both regression and the GPS, we find that transfer time does not have a statistically significant marginal effect on the outcomes. © 2015 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Background. Policy makers require estimates of comparative effectiveness that apply to the population of interest, but there has been little research on quantitative approaches to assess and extend the generalizability of randomized controlled trial (RCT)–based evaluations. We illustrate an approach using observational data. Methods. Our example is the Whole Systems Demonstrator (WSD) trial, in which 3230 adults with chronic conditions were assigned to receive telehealth or usual care. First, we used novel placebo tests to assess whether outcomes were similar between the RCT control group and a matched subset of nonparticipants who received usual care. We matched on 65 baseline variables obtained from the electronic medical record. Second, we conducted sensitivity analysis to consider whether the estimates of treatment effectiveness were robust to alternative assumptions about whether “usual care” is defined by the RCT control group or nonparticipants. Thus, we provided alternative estimates of comparative effectiveness by contrasting the outcomes of the RCT telehealth group and matched nonparticipants. Results. For some endpoints, such as the number of outpatient attendances, the placebo tests passed, and the effectiveness estimates were robust to the choice of comparison group. However, for other endpoints, such as emergency admissions, the placebo tests failed and the estimates of treatment effect differed markedly according to whether telehealth patients were compared with RCT controls or matched nonparticipants. Conclusions. The proposed placebo tests indicate those cases when estimates from RCTs do not generalize to routine clinical practice and motivate complementary estimates of comparative effectiveness that use observational data. Future RCTs are recommended to incorporate these placebo tests and the accompanying sensitivity analyses to enhance their relevance to policy making.

Background Early, goal-directed therapy (EGDT) is recommended in international guidelines for the resuscitation of patients presenting with early septic shock. However, adoption has been limited, and uncertainty about its effectiveness remains. Methods We conducted a pragmatic randomized trial with an integrated cost-effectiveness analysis in 56 hospitals in England. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either EGDT (a 6-hour resuscitation protocol) or usual care. The primary clinical outcome was all-cause mortality at 90 days. Results We enrolled 1260 patients, with 630 assigned to EGDT and 630 to usual care. By 90 days, 184 of 623 patients (29.5%) in the EGDT group and 181 of 620 patients (29.2%) in the usual-care group had died (relative risk in the EGDT group, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 to 1.20; P = 0.90), for an absolute risk reduction in the EGDT group of −0.3 percentage points (95% CI, −5.4 to 4.7). Increased treat ment intensity in the EGDT group was indicated by increased use of intravenous fluids, vasoactive drugs, and red-cell transfusions and reflected by significantly worse organ-failure scores, more days receiving advanced cardiovascular support, and longer stays in the intensive care unit. There were no significant differences in any other secondary outcomes, including health-related quality of life, or in rates of serious adverse events. On average, EGDT increased costs, and the probability that it was cost-effective was below 20%. Conclusions In patients with septic shock who were identified early and received intravenous antibiotics and adequate fluid resuscitation, hemodynamic management according to a strict EGDT protocol did not lead to an improvement in outcome. (Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme; ProMISe Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN36307479.)

PURPOSE: To estimate the effect of prompt admission to critical care on mortality for deteriorating ward patients. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive ward patients assessed for critical care. Prompt admissions (within 4 h of assessment) were compared to a 'watchful waiting' cohort. We used critical care strain (bed occupancy) as a natural randomisation event that would predict prompt transfer to critical care. Strain was classified as low, medium or high (2+, 1 or 0 empty beds). This instrumental variable (IV) analysis was repeated for the subgroup of referrals with a recommendation for critical care once assessed. Risk-adjusted 90-day survival models were also constructed. RESULTS: A total of 12,380 patients from 48 hospitals were available for analysis. There were 2411 (19%) prompt admissions (median delay 1 h, IQR 1-2) and 9969 (81%) controls; 1990 (20%) controls were admitted later (median delay 11 h, IQR 6-26). Prompt admissions were less frequent (p

Summary Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can provide unbiased estimates of sample average treatment effects. However, a common concern is that RCTs may fail to provide unbiased estimates of population average treatment effects. We derive the assumptions that are required to identify population average treatment effects from RCTs. We provide placebo tests, which formally follow from the identifying assumptions and can assess whether they hold. We offer new research designs for estimating population effects that use non-randomized studies to adjust the RCT data. This approach is considered in a cost-effectiveness analysis of a clinical intervention: pulmonary artery catheterization.

Objective To assess the three year clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness of a strategy of endovascular repair (if aortic morphology is suitable, open repair if not) versus open repair for patients with suspected ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting 30 vascular centres (29 in UK, one in Canada), 2009-16. Participants 613 eligible patients (480 men) with a clinical diagnosis of ruptured aneurysm, of whom 502 underwent emergency repair for rupture. Interventions 316 patients were randomised to an endovascular strategy (275 with confirmed rupture) and 297 to open repair (261 with confirmed rupture). Main outcome measures Mortality, with reinterventions after aneurysm repair, quality of life, and hospital costs to three years as secondary measures. Results The maximum follow-up for mortality was 7.1 years, with two patients in each group lost to follow-up by three years. After similar mortality by 90 days, in the mid-term (three months to three years) there were fewer deaths in the endovascular than the open repair group (hazard ratio 0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.90), leading to lower mortality at three years (48% v 56%), but by seven years mortality was about 60% in each group (hazard ratio 0.92, 0.75 to 1.13). Results for the 502 patients with repaired ruptures were more pronounced: three year mortality was lower in the endovascular strategy group (42% v 54%; odds ratio 0.62, 0.43 to 0.88), but after seven years there was no clear difference between the groups (hazard ratio 0.86, 0.68 to 1.08). Reintervention rates up to three years were not significantly different between the randomised groups (hazard ratio 1.02, 0.79 to 1.32); the initial rapid rate of reinterventions was followed by a much slower mid-term reintervention rate in both groups. The early higher average quality of life in the endovascular strategy versus open repair group, coupled with the lower mortality at three years, led to a gain in average quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at three years of 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.33). The endovascular strategy group spent fewer days in hospital and had lower average costs of −£2605 (95% confidence interval −£5966 to £702) (about €2813; $3439). The probability that the endovascular strategy is cost effective was >90% at all levels of willingness to pay for a QALY gain. Conclusions At three years, compared with open repair, an endovascular strategy for suspected ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was associated with a survival advantage, a gain in QALYs, similar levels of reintervention, and reduced costs, and this strategy was cost effective. These findings support the increasing use of an endovascular strategy, with wider availability of emergency endovascular repair. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN48334791; ClinicalTrials NCT00746122.

Background/aims: The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient’s outcome, and so the data are ‘missing at random’ . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. Methods: We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. Results: A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in these elicited values. The missing at random analysis found that patients randomised to the emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair had higher average (95% credible interval) quality of life scores of 0.062 (−0.005 to 0.130). Our sensitivity analysis that used the elicited expert information as pooled priors found that the gain in average quality of life for the emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair was 0.076 (−0.054 to 0.198). Conclusion: We provide and exemplify a practical tool for eliciting the expert opinion required by recommended approaches to the sensitivity analyses of randomised controlled trials. We show how this approach allows the trial analysis to fully recognise the uncertainty that arises from making alternative, plausible assumptions about the reasons for missing data. This tool can be widely used in the design, analysis and interpretation of future trials, and to facilitate this, materials are available for download.

Global data on use of evidence-based medical (EBM) therapies following myocardial infarction (MI) are rare. Therefore, we investigated regional differences in EBM therapy use and its association with CV death in patients >1 year post MI. The TIGRIS prospective global registry ([NCT01866904][1])

BACKGROUND Whether an insulin infusion should be used for tight control of hyperglycemia in critically ill children remains unclear. METHODS We randomly assigned children (≤16 years of age) who were admitted to the pedi atric intensive care unit (ICU) and were expected to require mechanical ventilation and vasoactive drugs for at least 12 hours to either tight glycemic control, with a target blood glucose range of 72 to 126 mg per deciliter (4.0 to 7.0 mmol per liter), or conventional glycemic control, with a target level below 216 mg per deciliter (12.0 mmol per liter). The primary outcome was the number of days alive and free from mechanical ventilation at 30 days after randomization. The main prespecified subgroup analysis compared children who had undergone cardiac surgery with those who had not. We also assessed costs of hospital and community health services. RESULTS A total of 1369 patients at 13 centers in England underwent randomization: 694 to tight glycemic control and 675 to conventional glycemic control; 60% had undergone cardiac surgery. The mean between-group difference in the number of days alive and free from mechanical ventilation at 30 days was 0.36 days (95% confidence interval [CI], −0.42 to 1.14); the effects did not differ according to subgroup. Severe hypogly cemia (blood glucose

Objectives This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Methods Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. Results The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million–£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). Conclusions It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment.

Summary Guidelines for good practice in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are available from the UK's National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, which address the scope of the CEA study, appropriateness of the data used and how to account for model as well as statistical uncertainty. Within these three broad headings, we identify 10 specific issues that may affect materially the CEA of a public health intervention for which injecting drug users are a major target group. The 10 issues relate to injecting drug users' under-representation in randomized controlled trials; their risk of blood-borne viruses—such as human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus—which have long-term chronic sequelae, their markedly higher age-specific mortality than in the general population and the relapsing–remitting nature of opiate dependence with its associated risk of overdose. We consider how adequately three key UK CEAs accounted for the relevant injecting drug user specific issues that we have highlighted. The three case-studies are antiviral treatment of carriage of hepatitic C virus, opiate substitution therapy and needle and syringe programmes.