1. External validation of the IMPROVE-DD risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism among inpatients with COVID-19
- Author
-
Mark Goldin, Saurav Chatterjee, Stephanie K. Lin, Michael Qiu, Kevin Coppa, Dimitrios Giannis, Eugenia Gianos, Sheila Firoozan, Stuart L. Cohen, Thomas G. McGinn, Jamie S. Hirsch, Anise Diaz, Alex C. Spyropoulos, Sam Ngu, Safiya Richardson, Matthew A. Barish, and Nina Kohn
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Risk Assessment ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,IMPROVE-DD ,Internal medicine ,Humans ,Medicine ,cardiovascular diseases ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Retrospective Studies ,Inpatients ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Pulmonary embolism ,Area under the curve ,COVID-19 ,Retrospective cohort study ,Venous Thromboembolism ,Hematology ,equipment and supplies ,medicine.disease ,ROC curve ,Venous thrombosis ,Deep venous thrombosis ,New York City ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business ,Risk assessment ,Venous thromboembolism - Abstract
There is a need to discriminate which COVID-19 inpatients are at higher risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) to inform prophylaxis strategies. The IMPROVE-DD VTE risk assessment model (RAM) has previously demonstrated good discrimination in non-COVID populations. We aimed to externally validate the IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM in medical patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM in adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to one of thirteen Northwell Health hospitals in the New York metropolitan area between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. VTE was defined as new-onset symptomatic deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. To assess the predictive value of the RAM, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Of 9407 patients who met study criteria, 274 patients developed VTE with a prevalence of 2.91%. The VTE rate was 0.41% for IMPROVE-DD score 0–1 (low risk), 1.21% for score 2–3 (moderate risk), and 5.30% for score ≥ 4 (high risk). Approximately 45.7% of patients were classified as high VTE risk, 33.3% moderate risk, and 21.0% low risk. Discrimination of low versus moderate-high VTE risk demonstrated sensitivity 0.971, specificity 0.215, PPV 0.036, and NPV 0.996. ROC AUC was 0.703. In this external validation study, the IMPROVE-DD VTE RAM demonstrated very good discrimination to identify hospitalized COVID-19 patients at low, moderate, and high VTE risk.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF