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This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses worldwide with a focus on developing countries. The results are based on a novel data set collected by the World Bank Group and several partner institutions in 51 countries covering more than 100,000 businesses. The paper provides several stylized facts. First, the COVID-19 shock has been severe and widespread across firms, with persistent negative impact on sales. Second, the employment adjustment has operated mostly along the intensive margin (that is leave of absence and reduction in hours), with a small share of firms laying off workers. Third, smaller firms are disproportionately facing greater financial constraints. Fourth, firms are increasingly relying on digital solutions as a response to the shock. Fifth, there is great uncertainty about the future, especially among firms that have experienced a larger drop in sales, which is associated with job losses. These findings provide a better understanding of the magnitude and distribution of the shock, the main channels affecting businesses, and how firms are adjusting. The paper concludes by discussing some avenues for future research. more...

A poor start in life shapes children’s development over the life-course. Children from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are exposed to low levels of early stimulation, greater socioeconomic deprivation and persistent environmental and health challenges. Nevertheless, little is known about country-specific factors affecting early childhood development (ECD) in LMICs. Using data from 68 LMICs collected as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys between 2010 and 2018, along with other publicly available data sources, we employed a multivariate linear regression analysis at a national level to assess the association between the average Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) in children aged 3–5 and country-level ecological characteristics: early learning and nurturing care and socioeconomic and health indicators. Our results show that upper-middle-income country status, attendance at early childhood education (ECE) programs and the availability of books at home are positively associated with a higher ECDI. Conversely, the prevalence of low birthweight and high under-5 and maternal mortality are negatively associated with ECDI nationally. On average, LMICs with inadequate stimulation at home, higher mortality rates and without mandatory ECE programs are at greater risks of poorer ECDI. Investment in early-year interventions to improve nurturing care and ECD outcomes is essential for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. more...

This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 633595

OBJECTIVES:Implementation of a large-scale, child weight management program in low-income, ethnically diverse communities provided an important opportunity to evaluate its effectiveness under service level conditions (i.e. provision as a primary care child weight management service). METHODS:MEND 7-13 is a community-based, multi-component, childhood obesity intervention designed to improve dietary, physical activity and sedentary behaviors. It comprises twice weekly sessions for 10 consecutive weeks (35 contact hours) and is delivered to groups of children and accompanying parents/caregivers. The evaluation used an uncontrolled, repeated measures design. Overall, 3782 children with overweight or obesity attended 415 MEND 7-13 programs in eight US states, of whom 2482 children (65.6%) had complete data for change in zBMI. The intervention targeted low-income, ethnically diverse families. Changes in anthropometric, cardiovascular fitness and psychological outcomes were evaluated. A longitudinal multivariate imputation model was used to impute missing data. Peer effects analysis was conducted using the instrumental variables approach and group fixed effects. RESULTS:Mean changes in BMI and zBMI at 10 weeks were -0.49 kg/m2 (95% CI: -0.67, -0.31) and -0.06 (95% CI: -0.08, -0.05), respectively. Benefits were observed for cardiovascular fitness and psychological outcomes. Mean peer reduction in zBMI was associated with a reduction in participant zBMI in the instrumental variables model (B = 0.78, P = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.03, 1.53). Mean program attendance and retention were 73.9% and 88.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION:Implementing MEND 7-13 under service level conditions was associated with short-term improvements in anthropometric, fitness and psychological indices in a large sample of low-income, ethnically diverse children with overweight and obesity. A peer effect was quantified showing that benefits for an individual child were enhanced, if peers in the same group also performed well. To our knowledge, this is the first US study to evaluate outcomes of an up-scaled community-based, child weight management program and to show positive peer effects associated with participation in the intervention. more...

Pension reform delays were a crucial part of the mechanism leading to the Greek crisis of 2009. The reason for these delays was frequently cited as the hostile stance of public opinion to any change in pensions. It is thus important to examine what lay behind these attitudes, and the reasons why these public objections had not been overcome. The international bibliography stresses that attitudes to pensions may be affected by the extent of understanding of pensions and that public opinion may in this way be open to persuasion. However, where there exists cross-subsidisation between occupational groups, selective knowledge may also operate defensively as a means of protecting the status quo. Thus there could be two dimensions of understanding, one helping and the other hindering change. A nation-wide sample undertaken in Greece by the authors in May 2009 attempts to disentangle the two influences, by drawing a distinction between general understanding, and particular awareness of one’s occupational pension situation. An ‘intransigence index’ is subjected to multivariate analysis isolating, inter alia, the two dimensions. As in other countries, greater understanding makes for a more conciliatory attitude. However, in sharp contrast, in Greece particular knowledge encourages more confrontational views, as part of a strategy defending pension privileges. This finding can be used to explain the role pension attitudes and path dependence played in generating the reform impasse which was ultimately responsible for the Greek crisis after 2009. more...