2,143 results on '"Technology forecasting"'
Search Results
2. Forecasting and evaluating emerging technologies based on supply and demand matching – a case study of China’s gerontechnology
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Zhao-xi Han, Feifei Wu, Lan Mi, Lucheng Huang, and Hong Miao
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Matching (statistics) ,Knowledge management ,Computer science ,Emerging technologies ,business.industry ,Strategy and Management ,05 social sciences ,Aging society ,Management Science and Operations Research ,050905 science studies ,Supply and demand ,ComputingMilieux_GENERAL ,Gerontechnology ,0502 economics and business ,Semantic analysis (knowledge representation) ,0509 other social sciences ,China ,business ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
While numerous studies have examined the importance of technology innovation in supporting the aging society, few have been specifically conducted on the emerging technologies that forecast for the...
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- 2021
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3. Development of the scientific and technological forecasting methodology based on using TIPS instruments
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Ekaterina Vladimirovna Kravets, Andrey Aleksandrovich Efremov, Anna E. Gorokhova, Sergei Sergeevich Golubev, and Vladimir Ivanovich Gayduk
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Engineering ,Engineering management ,Sociology and Political Science ,business.industry ,business ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Scientific and technological forecasting for a long run is essential when determining priorities in science, engineering, and technology development. The forecasting methods used in its development and based on the Delphi approach cannot provide a complete analysis of development trends, depending on the experts’ professionalism, and allow facts of lobbying interests of various groups. In this paper, the mechanisms for improving the quality of scientific and technological forecasts by using the theory of inventive problem solving (TIPS) when forming and verifying forecasts have been offered. In this case, the forecast results are based not only on the expert’s subjective opinion but also on the objective laws of the development of the technical systems. The material has come with detailed practical examples. The integration of the TRIZ instruments in the state system for determining top priority technological areas will reduce errors in choosing the number of promising technological and technical areas that will make up the basis for the formation of new models and technologies.
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- 2021
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4. Technology Forecasting Using Deep Learning Neural Network: Taking the Case of Robotics
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Xueguo Xu and Meizeng Gui
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General Computer Science ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,artificial intelligence technology ,02 engineering and technology ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Field (computer science) ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,General Materials Science ,Autoregressive integrated moving average ,Time series ,robotics ,Artificial neural network ,business.industry ,Deep learning ,05 social sciences ,GRASP ,General Engineering ,deep learning ,Identification (information) ,EEMD ,Artificial intelligence ,lcsh:Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,business ,Technology forecasting ,computer ,lcsh:TK1-9971 ,050203 business & management - Abstract
Technology forecasting not only helps business managers to make the right decisions but also helps researchers to grasp the direction of technology development. Technology forecasting, which facilitates the identification of the development technologies with high potential, can be an effective tool to support the management and plan for the future research activities. For this purpose, this paper firstly constructs Multi-modal input based on deep learning (MIDL) text classification model to extract relevant SCI papers from Web of Science database from 1996 to 2019 for topic classification, and then apply the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to build an EEMD-LSTM technology forecasting model to predict the future development of each research field. Besides, we verify the validity of the method by taking robotics as an example in this paper. The results show that the accuracy, recall and F1 of MIDL text classification model are 0.826, 0.822 and 0.824 respectively. As compared with the optimal results of other classification models, the accuracy, recall and F1 are improved by 4.1%, 3.5%, and 3.8% respectively. The mean MAPE of the EEMD-LSTM model is 7%, which is 11% lower than ARIMA, 8% lower than LSTM, and 10% lower than 2-layer-LSTM.
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- 2021
5. Peculiar Times Being Used to Analyze and Plan Ahead [Connected and Autonomous Vehicles]
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Elisabeth Uhlemann
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Market research ,Operations research ,business.industry ,Automotive Engineering ,Plan (drawing) ,Business ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Reports on trends and future market developments predicted for connected and autonomous vehicles.
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- 2020
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6. Mapping the Technological Landscape to Accelerate Innovation
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Jay Paap
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Service (business) ,Knowledge management ,Competitive intelligence ,business.industry ,Emerging technologies ,media_common.quotation_subject ,New product development ,Quality (business) ,Competitor analysis ,Project management ,business ,Technology forecasting ,media_common - Abstract
The quality of an innovative idea and the likelihood that it will lead to a successful new product or service is directly related to the quality of the information that is used to generate the idea and assess its value. Ideas based on a poor understanding of the underlying need or technologies that might be used to address that need will rarely succeed. An assessment of market attractiveness based on faulty estimates of customer readiness for your innovation and current or potential competitors’ activities and their likely response to your offering is a high-risk effort. To successfully innovate, organizations need to have the best information possible to support their development efforts and up-to-date information on the eternal factors affecting an innovative project’s success so they can decide whether it is worth continuing. Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI) is a branch of Competitive Intelligence (CI) that provides those developing new technologies, products, and services the information required to make better project selection decisions by ensuring the organization has the best information possible on customer needs, technology options (including using external collaborations to speed development and manage risk), and the competitive environment. CTI continues to provide value throughout the development process by alerting project managers to changes that might affect the attractiveness of a project under development. While CTI shares many tools and approaches with other forms of CI, it has special characteristics that call for a different way of managing the intelligence collection and analysis. Specifically, it is common to supplement the CTI staff’s capabilities in ways not often found in other types of CI by leveraging the interest, knowledge, and skills of their users, the technical staff. Drawing on over half a century of research on technology forecasting and innovation, and several decades of the author’s working with organizations to establish CTI programs, this article outlines where and how CTI can help organizations enhance their innovative efforts.
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- 2020
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7. Identification of promising inventions considering the quality of knowledge accumulation: a machine learning approach
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Uijun Kwon and Youngjung Geum
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business.industry ,Computer science ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,General Social Sciences ,Library and Information Sciences ,050905 science studies ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Computer Science Applications ,Task (project management) ,Patent analysis ,Variable (computer science) ,Identification (information) ,Quality (business) ,Artificial intelligence ,0509 other social sciences ,050904 information & library sciences ,business ,computer ,Technology forecasting ,media_common - Abstract
The identification of promising inventions is an important task in technology planning practice. Although several studies have been carried out using patent-based machine learning techniques, none of these have used the quality of knowledge accumulation as an input for identifying promising inventions, and have simply considered the number of backward citations as the link with previous knowledge. The current study therefore aims to fill this research gap by predicting promising inventions with patent-based machine learning, using the quality of knowledge accumulation as an important input variable. Eight criteria and 17 patent indicators are used as input variables, and patent forward citations are employed as the output variable. Six machine learning techniques are tested on 363,620 G06F patents filed between January 1990 and December 2009, and the results show that the quality of knowledge accumulation is the most important variable in predicting emerging inventions.
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- 2020
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8. Technological Forecasting of Traditional Knowledge Associated with Babassu
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Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet, Antonio Martins de Oliveira Junior, Junior Leal do Prado, and André Luiz Gomes de Souza
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Knowledge management ,business.industry ,General Medicine ,Business ,Traditional knowledge ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Babassu is a native palm tree from Brazil traditionally used by Indigenous Peoples (IP) and Traditional Communities (TC), in order to produce medicines applied in different treatments. Some of these medicinal applications have been scientifically analyzed in order to prove their pharmacological potentialities and have also been an object of interest for the protection of Intellectual Property Rights. The objective of this work was to carry out the technological forecasting of traditional knowledge associated with babassu related to the treatments applied by traditional medicine and to analyze the indicators connected with to the protection of Intellectual Property Rights. Initially, we conducted a survey of ethnobotanical and ethnopharmacological studies, presenting applications of babassu performed by traditional medicine. Subsequently, we presented a literature review, focused on analyzing the effects of babassu according to the practices of traditional medicine. Finally, we analyzed the records of filed patents made in World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), European Patent Office (EPO) and Latin American Base of the European Patent Office (LATIPAT) in relation to previously identified Traditional Knowledge Associated (TKA). There were different types of babassu applications used by traditional medicine, according to the results of the ethnobotanical and ethnopharmacological studies carried out in Brazil. The applications that stood out were related to anti-inflammatory and cicatrizant treatments. Most of the pharmacological research that focused on proving the medicinal potential associated with the use of babassu, analyzed applications in anti-inflammatory and cicatrizant treatments, which mostly demonstrated these potentialities. It was verified that the interests for the protection of Intellectual Property Rights of the TKA with babassu, and the anti-inflammatory and cicatrizant treatments, presented a growth. This study contributes with positive evidence for the medicinal and cosmetic potentialities of babassu presented by traditional medicine. However, it also shows that holders of TKA have not been involved in the processes of protection of Intellectual Property Rights of inventions that apply TKA with babassu. In view of the related conflicts, it is suggested that TKA be valued in management and conservation practices.
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- 2020
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9. Technological Forecasting of Deformations in Flat Parts
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Jiří Fries, Victor Nordin, T.N. Ivanova, and Witold Biały
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Engineering ,020303 mechanical engineering & transports ,0203 mechanical engineering ,business.industry ,021105 building & construction ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,business ,Civil engineering ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
The deformation of a part occurring in the process of grinding directly influences its exploitation and quality parameters. The instability of shape and size, which occurs due to an imbalance of residual stress, can be the one of the major causes of deformation of a part. The decrease in stress slows down the deformation process. Considering the regularities of heat source intensity dependence on the grinding modes, it can be asserted that with increasing grinding depth and grinding wheel hardness, the value increases and it decreases with a growth in a speed of the part and the use of cooling. The higher the heat removal is and the better lubricant properties of the liquid are, the more significant the decrease in is. Changing these values allows regulation of the residual stresses. As a result of the research on determination of deformations, it is recommended to reduce thermal deformations by considering the geometric size of a plate to be machined, linear expansion coefficient of plate material and an allowance for nonflatness from thermal deformations. The value of nonflatness from thermal deformations is directly proportional to linear expansion coefficient of plate material and its square overall dimensions. At the same time, the value of nonflatness is inversely proportional to the plate thickness.
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- 2020
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10. Identifying How Nonfunctional Attributes Affect a System’s Lifecycle
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John V. Farr, James R. Enos, and Roshanak Nilchiani
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Process management ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Program management ,Emerging technologies ,05 social sciences ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,General Engineering ,02 engineering and technology ,System lifecycle ,Affect (psychology) ,Grounded theory ,Variety (cybernetics) ,021105 building & construction ,0502 economics and business ,New product development ,business ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Engineered systems often operate well beyond their planned retirement date due to a variety of factors from affordability to performance. This paper presents a grounded theory approach to identifyi...
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- 2020
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11. Cyberthreats in 2025
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James Bret Michael, Jeffrey Voas, and D. Richard Kuhn
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General Computer Science ,business.industry ,Computer science ,Internet privacy ,Minor (academic) ,business ,Speculation ,Value (mathematics) ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Presents a virtual roundtable discussion of the future for cyberthreats and cybersecurity through 2025. The topic of discussion is what the upcoming cyberthreats in 2025 might be. We could have asked about other years, such as 2030 or 2035. However, for this topic, the larger the number, the more the answers become sheer speculation. We believe that distant, futuristic speculation is of little value to the reader, given the relentless hacks that occur daily. In this VRT, we invited six experts to respond to 12 questions. Their written responses may have undergone minor edits. However, as organizers, we attempted to keep their words as verbatim as possible.
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- 2020
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12. The Continuing IT Evolution and Revolution
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San Murugesan
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Digital computer ,History ,business.industry ,Digital era ,Section (typography) ,Media studies ,Information technology ,Computer society ,GeneralLiterature_MISCELLANEOUS ,Computer Science Applications ,Hardware and Architecture ,Special section ,business ,Third wave ,Software ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
This year marks four significant anniversaries of important developments in computing and information technology: the 75th anniversary of the first general purpose electronic digital computer, the 75th anniversary of IEEE Computer Society, the 40th anniversary of the microprocessor, and the 40th anniversary of the origin of quantum computing. In a span of 75 years, from an unproven technology to one that is embedded deeply into every aspect of our work and our daily lives, computers have advanced significantly. Let’s reflect on and celebrate the amazing developments and look forward to what is ahead. In commemoration of these extraordinary creations, IT Professional presents a special section “The Continuing IT Evolution and Revolution.” This section features four invited articles on the evolution of IT, multimedia advances, the duality of data and knowledge that is driving the third wave of AI, and the significance of ethically aligned IT in the digital era ahead.
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- 2021
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13. A text mining-based approach for the evaluation of patenting trends on nanomaterials
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Douglas Henrique Milanez, Daniel Rodrigo Leiva, and Leandro Innocentini Lopes de Faria
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Materials science ,Competitive intelligence ,Process (engineering) ,business.industry ,Bioengineering ,General Chemistry ,Condensed Matter Physics ,Data science ,Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics ,Field (computer science) ,Database index ,Patent analysis ,Text mining ,Modeling and Simulation ,General Materials Science ,International Patent Classification ,business ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Technological developments in nanomaterials can be tracked using patent indicators. However, the traditional International Patent Classification indicators cannot be considered conclusive, since nanotechnology is not easily defined as a field of research as well as there are different types of nanomaterials not well delineated into hierarchical codes. Therefore, text mining approaches can be used to enhance patent analysis and provide insightful trends to support research and development, competitive intelligence, and policy making. This study aims at proposing a method to classify nanomaterials into main types and mapping technological developments using an advanced text mining-based method to compile patent indicators. Patent records were provided by Derwent Innovations Index database, which indexes an enhanced bibliographic data of patents filed worldwide. A comparison between the IPC indicators and those developed here by text mining is presented. We concluded that the proposed method provides useful outcomes for decision-making, technological forecasting, and material selection process.
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- 2021
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14. Technological forecasting: Oligosaccharides in agricultural preparations
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Lidyane Souto Maciel, Renato de Azevedo Moreira, and Rachel Alves Maia
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lcsh:Management. Industrial management ,Natural resource economics ,Agriculture ,business.industry ,lcsh:HD28-70 ,lcsh:Technology (General) ,lcsh:T1-995 ,Business ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
O consumo mundial crescente de fertilizantes e a consequente preocupação com as questões ambientais estimulam o desenvolvimento de tecnologias que, simultaneamente, promovam o aumento da produtividade agrícola e minimizem os danos ao ambiente. Uma alternativa que atende a esses requisitos seria o uso combinado de estimulantes vegetais de origem natural com os fertilizantes habitualmente utilizados e, nesse contexto, os oligossacarídeos despontam como potenciais bioestimulantes vegetais. Com este trabalho, objetivou-se realizar uma prospecção tecnológica através da busca por patentes relacionadas a preparações agrícolas que contêm oligossacarídeos na sua composição. A pesquisa foi feita nas bases de dados do Escritório Europeu de Patentes (EPO), da plataforma de busca de patentes da América Latina e Espanha (Latipat) e do Instituto Nacional de Propriedade Industrial (INPI). Os resultados mostram que houve um grande aumento no número de depósitos de patentes relacionadas a oligossacarídeos na agricultura nos últimos cinco anos, assim como uma forte tendência na utilização de oligossacarídeos de quitosana. A China é o principal detentor de patentes na área e o Brasil, embora não seja gerador desta tecnologia, encontra-se numa situação favorável para investir nesse ramo.
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- 2020
15. Technology Predictions: Art, Science, and Fashion
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Phil Laplante, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Dejan Milojicic, and Katherine Mansfield
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Market research ,General Computer Science ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Publishing ,The Internet ,business ,Data science ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Making accurate predictions isn't easy. However, many people have enjoyed making predictions throughout history, and even more individuals have taken part in learning about predictions.
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- 2019
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16. El futuro de la fabricación aditiva, a través del análisis de patentes
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Juan Antonio Paz González, Yuridia Vega, Manuel Javier Rosel Solis, Alex Bernardo Pimentel Mendoza, Javier Molina Salazar, and Vladimir Becerril Mendoza
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0209 industrial biotechnology ,Engineering ,Manufacturing technology ,Trademark ,business.industry ,Industry standard ,02 engineering and technology ,General Medicine ,021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology ,Manufacturing engineering ,020901 industrial engineering & automation ,Work (electrical) ,0210 nano-technology ,business ,Deposition (chemistry) ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
En el presente trabajo se realiza un análisis utilizando la base de datos de la Oficina de Patentes y Marcas de Estados Unidos, considerada la más extensa e importante a nivel mundial, revisando las patentes registradas por los principales fabricantes y desarrolladores de tecnología de fabricación aditiva a nivel industrial y doméstico, para realizar un pronóstico tecnológico que ayude a identificar la tendencia que tendrá el desarrollo de la fabricación aditiva, visualizando cual será el principio de fabricación por esta herramienta tecnológica, que se convertirá en el estándar de la industria y que predomine en el mercado. En los resultados obtenidos en este análisis, todo parece indicar que la fabricación por deposición de plástico fundido, se convertirá en la tecnología dominante en este segmento de la industria.
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- 2019
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17. The development status of PUREX process for nuclear fuel reprocessing from an insight from PATENTS
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Yanjia Lv, Yading Zhang, Dan Mo, Ran Su, Min Liu, Chao Ren, Xiaofei Chen, and Shoujun Yan
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Engineering ,business.industry ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,PUREX ,Pollution ,Spent nuclear fuel ,Manufacturing engineering ,Analytical Chemistry ,Nuclear reprocessing ,Nuclear Energy and Engineering ,Work (electrical) ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,business ,Spectroscopy ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
The PUREX process has been one of the most successful methods to reprocess spent nuclear fuel for several decades, and further enhancements have being carried out in the worldwide. The published global patents about the PUREX technology are investigated in this work. The technology forecasting and the development strategy of PUREX process was provided from the view of patents, based on the nations, the technology field, the trend in the number of patent applications. The purpose of this work is to help the technical personnel in this field to understand the advanced development of PUREX technology from a new perspective.
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- 2019
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18. Surveying the future of science, technology and business – A 35 year perspective
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Rachel Kim, Ulrich A. K. Betz, Fred Phillips, brendan m. monks, and Frederick Betz
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business.industry ,020209 energy ,05 social sciences ,Perspective (graphical) ,Time horizon ,02 engineering and technology ,Public relations ,Futures studies ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Technology and society ,Science policy ,Business Review ,Convergence (relationship) ,Business and International Management ,business ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
We asked readers of Science, Nature and Harvard Business Review about their expectations for advances in science, technology, and business over a 35-year time horizon. We asked further about their needs and dreams for technical products, and their forecasts of converging industries. A fourth survey, fielded later to experts in technology forecasting and science policy, yielded assessments of the earlier survey results as well as the experts' own views on the advances, needs, and convergence questions. A combined analysis of the four surveys leads to this paper's portrait of the expected scientific and business environments 35 years hence, and a description of the gaps between expected developments in science, technology and business on the one hand, and market and social needs on the other hand. Years between 2018 and 2053 will bring significant benefits from the convergence of biomedicine and computer science. They will bring challenges and changes to the agriculture and education sectors. Surveyed experts believe many of the areas of greatest social need, including dealing with climate change, are those that businesses are least prepared to respond to.
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- 2019
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19. Technology forecasting: A case study of computational technologies
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Amol C. Adamuthe and Gopakumaran T. Thampi
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business.industry ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,05 social sciences ,Gompertz function ,Trend line ,Cloud computing ,02 engineering and technology ,computer.software_genre ,Industrial engineering ,Growth curve (statistics) ,Autonomic computing ,Grid computing ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Business and International Management ,Time series ,business ,computer ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
This research presents trend projection and technology maturity curve of six computational technologies including three disruptive technologies namely mainframes, minicomputers and cloud computing. This investigation is beneficial to sensitize different stakeholders for making effective strategic policies and decisions. Time series data of patent and paper from U.S. patent office, European patent office, IEEE and ScienceDirect is used for forecasting. Use of two technology indicators from four sources made the forecasting results more reliable for decision makers. Six functions are tested to identify the best-fitted trend line. Results indicate that most of the technologies are better fitted to polynomial trend line of 2nd order. All computational technologies except cloud computing have undergone both upward and downward trends. Cloud computing shows a very high upward trend. Maturity curve is forecasted using the best-fitted growth curve method. Gompertz growth curve is better fitted than the logistic curve for many instances. Majority of the technologies follows introduction, growth, maturity and decline pattern. The life cycle pattern and growth rate of each technology is different. Growth pattern of mainframes and minicomputers is similar to the S-shaped curve. Growth pattern of grid computing and autonomic computing is similar to the “S-shaped” curve for research papers dataset.
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- 2019
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20. How aluminum changed the world: A metallurgical revolution through technological and cultural perspectives
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Dana Ashkenazi
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Value (ethics) ,Engineering ,Cultural perspective ,business.industry ,020209 energy ,05 social sciences ,Scrap ,02 engineering and technology ,Consumption (sociology) ,Additional research ,Commerce ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Production (economics) ,Business and International Management ,business ,Aerospace ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
The history of aluminum is rather short since it was discovered only in the nineteenth century, yet it has become an important part of everyday life. This article reviews the history of aluminum through technological breakthroughs as well as from cultural and social perspectives, beginning with its discovery, through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries until today; and aims to suggest possible future trends and applications for aluminum alloys. Aluminum has a high strength-to-weight ratio combined with excellent thermal conductivity and good corrosion resistance. Therefore, aluminum is an attractive material for many applications, including transportation, electrical and packaging industries, architecture, and food industries. It is also a recyclable metal, which provides both environmental and economic advantages. The commercial use of aluminum started at the end of the nineteenth century and continues to grow today with the development of new advanced aluminum alloys. Consequently, from a cultural perspective, aluminum is considered a symbol of modernity. Technological breakthroughs generate economic growth and social benefits. Present applications of aluminum include new choices, such as 3D printing, composite materials, nano-rods, biomedicine devices and aerospace uses. Based on the excellent properties of aluminum, its low price, combined with its significant scrap value and a growing recycling market, as well as its accelerating global production, it is expected that the aluminum industries will considerably grow through the twenty-first century and aluminum will continue to be a major part of our everyday culture. Therefore, based on the increasing growth of aluminum production and consumption, additional research and development effort is needed in the following years to minimize the negative environmental side effects associated with the technological developments related to aluminum production and at the same time creating further technological innovation.
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- 2019
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21. The Digitalization of Motion Picture Production and Its Value Chain Implications
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Nataliia Brehmer, Samantha Casas Solorio, Victor Tiberius, Amelie Eder, Manuela Fabro, and Anne Schulz
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Value (ethics) ,Computer science ,Delphi method ,film ,digitalization ,motion picture ,Movie theater ,0502 economics and business ,Production (economics) ,Technological change ,business.industry ,Motion picture ,movie ,Communication. Mass media ,05 social sciences ,technological forecasting ,Film industry ,P87-96 ,Data science ,Journalism. The periodical press, etc ,PN4699-5650 ,Delphi study ,cinema ,ddc:300 ,050211 marketing ,business ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Technological change and development have been ongoing in the motion picture industry since its beginnings some 125 years ago. What further advancements of digitalization can be expected over the next decade and what are its implications for the industry’s value chain? To answer this question, we conducted an international two-stage Delphi study. The results suggested a more frequent use of smartphones as cameras, the emergence of full digital film sets and digital star avatars, as well as advancements in VR-based and interactive movies. The findings imply challenges for traditional players in the motion picture value chain. Production technology becomes both simpler and more complex, leading to the threat of new entrants.
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- 2021
22. Blockchain technology forecasting by patent analytics and text mining
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Alireza Babaei Bondarti, Qiang Qu, Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan, and Parinaz Babaei Bondarti
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Cryptocurrency ,Patent analysis ,Blockchain ,Blockchain technology ,Text mining ,business.industry ,General Engineering ,Future trend ,Information technology ,ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING ,Intellectual property ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,T58.5-58.64 ,Data science ,Analytics ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Technology life cycle ,business ,Technology forecasting ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
Information technologies (ITs) have been playing an important role in improving our society, and the fast evolution of ITs creates a competitive environment not only for companies but also for regions. Hence, recognizing the future trend of technologies can be effective in decision-making with regard to technology selection and investment. Blockchain technology with its vast and impressive applications has received considerable attention from researchers, investors, and public agencies. The purpose of this research is to investigate blockchain technology to explore its trends according to their classification by use of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) database. Furthermore, we particularly evaluate the registered patents in the world's most well-known patent databases such as the USA patent database. We drew the current technology trends in blockchain patents by applying the text mining and clustering approach. The results represent that the registered patents in the USA patent database have been achieved in the growth phase. That means, attention to the blockchain is rising nowadays and most patents focused the cryptocurrencies and their application in finance. However, blockchain technology is in the emergence phase and is evolving by researchers and inventors.
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- 2021
23. Using ontology in scientific and technological forecasting
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Sergei Sergeevich Golubev, Dmitrii Olegovich Margovenko, Alexander Viktorovich Kuritsyn, Elena Evgenyevna Shurukova, and Vera Vladimirovna Gorbunova
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LC8-6691 ,business.industry ,Management science ,Concept map ,Computer science ,Ontology ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Science ,Effectiveness ,Ambiguity ,Ontology (information science) ,Automation ,Quality ,Special aspects of education ,Domain (software engineering) ,Education ,Government programmes ,Quality (business) ,Systemic approach ,business ,Technology forecasting ,media_common - Abstract
The case is made and proposals are drawn for the development of ontologies of scientific and technological forecasting to secure national interests based on the descriptions of expertise in the forecast domain and the methodology of concept maps. Concept maps of scientific and technological advances are visualised and applicability is described for ontological methods in scientific and technological forecasting, as well as the specifics of automation. The novel contribution of the research findings consists in the authors' systemic and comprehensive approach in describing the ontological principles of scientific and technological forecasting to secure national interests. This eliminates the ambiguity in approaches and conceptualisations of the processes of scientific and technological forecasting. The proposed ontological system of scientific and technological forecasting to secure national interests offers a systemic approach to forecast development and uniform interpretations of the concepts involved. All that would doubtlessly contribute to quality forecasting.
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- 2021
24. IDENTIFICATION OF TECHNOLOGY-RELEVANT ENTITIES BASED ON TREND CURVES AND SEMANTIC SIMILARITIES
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Ryan Benton, Aviv Segev, Rachana Reddy Kandadi, Rituparna Datta, and Sukhwan Jung
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PageRank ,Big Data ,Information retrieval ,Relation (database) ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Big data ,Curve analysis ,Hyperspectral imaging ,Field (geography) ,Field (computer science) ,RDFa ,Term (time) ,RDF ,Identification (information) ,Web page ,MapReduce ,business ,Technology forecasting ,Semantic Web - Abstract
Technological developments are not isolated and are influenced not only by similar technologies but also by many entities, which are sometimes unforeseen by the experts in the field. The authors propose a method for identifying technology-relevant entities with trend curve analysis. The method first utilizes the tangential connection between terms in the encyclopedic dataset to extract technology-related entities with varying relation distances. Changes in their term frequencies within 389 million academic articles and 60 billion web pages are then analyzed to identify technology-relevant entities, incorporating the degrees and changes in both academic interests and public recognitions. The analysis is performed to find entities both significant and relevant to the technology of interest, resulting in the discovery of 40 and 39 technology-relevant entities, respectively, for unmanned aerial vehicle and hyperspectral imaging with 0.875 and 0.5385 accuracies. The case study showed the proposed method can capture hidden relationships between seemingly unrelated entities
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- 2021
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25. Effective Innovation Policy in the Industrial Sector: The Case of Russia
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Marina V. Karp, Mariya V. Tipalina, Elena L. Gulkova, Inna N. Rykova, and Igor A. Prodchenko
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Strategic planning ,National innovation system ,Government ,National security ,business.industry ,Secondary sector of the economy ,Manufacturing ,Health technology ,Business ,Industrial organization ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
The authors consider the key areas of science and technology policy in Russia by analyzing strategic and industry documents adopted since 2000. In total, the four groups of documents are reviewed by the authors: (1) strategic scientific and technical forecasting; (2) priority areas for scientific development and critical technologies; (3) integrated economic and social development priorities; (4) federal target programs and state programs for scientific and technological development in Russian industry. The authors critically examine each group of documents and draw general conclusions regarding the key areas of science and technology policy in Russia. The study shows that science and technology policies of Russia have a clear discrepancy between scientific and technological forecasting, planning, and actual development programs. In particular, the authors argue that scientific and technological forecasting in Russia does not focus sufficiently on the development of the existing manufacturing industry in Russia, but it pays greater attention to promising technologies in other areas, such as bioengineering, nanotechnology, medical technology, and others. In addition, their analysis shows that the Russian government primarily supports and is engaged in improving the competitiveness of industries such as the aerospace industry, the aviation industry, radio electronics, and the nuclear industry. The authors believe that this support is due to the role of these industries in ensuring the national security of Russia. The authors recommend a qualitative improvement in the system of scientific and technological forecasting to obtain a better understanding of the current situation of the Russian national innovation system, internal and external innovation markets, including industrial goods markets.
- Published
- 2021
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26. Technology forecasting in the mobile telecommunication industry: A case study towards the 5g era
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Hakan Tozan, Ozalp Vayvay, Gokhan Kalem, and Bahar Sennaroglu
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0211 other engineering and technologies ,Strategy ,Technology Life Cycle ,02 engineering and technology ,5G Ecosystem ,Technology life cycle ,New Product Development ,021105 building & construction ,0502 economics and business ,Operations Management ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,General Engineering ,Decision Making and Risk Management ,Term (time) ,Technology management ,Technology Management ,New product development ,Technology Forecasting ,The Internet ,Mobile telephony ,Mobile Telecommunication ,Telecommunications ,business ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting ,5G - Abstract
The evolution of 3G and Long Term Evolution (LTE) has brought a remarkable advantage to mobility-based digital solutions by providing ubiquitous Internet services to a plethora of users with various needs. Nowadays, the dramatic adoption of smart devices and increasing consumption of mobile Internet have been accelerating mobile technology development activities toward a 5G ecosystem. Therefore, industry players need to make managerial decisions and design strategies based on forecasts related to the introduction of 5G technology. The aim of this research is to enhance the understanding of technological forecasting and technology life cycle in the mobile telecommunication industry. Specifically, the study was carried out in Turkey to contribute to the engineering management field on the topic. This contribution will be realized by forecasting the ideal launch time of 5G services for a leading telecommunication company in the market, which has been integrating new mobile technologies and densifying its existing network at an unprecedented rate in recent years. Our findings reveal that the most appropriate time for the 5G deployment and launch of mobile telecommunication services in Turkey would be in August 2020. This is the time when most of the forecast parameters used for making decisions on network investments are predicted to reach maturity.
- Published
- 2021
27. Forecasting Technology Trends through the Gap Between Science and Technology: The Case of Software as an E-Commerce Service
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Esraa Bukhari, Dana Bakry, Haydar Yalcin, Tugrul U. Daim, James VanHuis, and Xiaoli Wang
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Service (systems architecture) ,business.industry ,Computer science ,technology forecasting ,Software as a service ,Cloud computing ,Technological evolution ,Network ,E-commerce ,text mining ,Text Mining Approach ,Data science ,technological trajectory ,software as a service ,SaaS ,Opportunities ,technology trends ,Information system ,e-commerce ,Mobile technology ,Products ,business ,Technology forecasting ,Tree ,patent citation - Abstract
Identifying technology trends can be a key success factor for companies to be competitive and take advantage of technological trends before they occur. The companies always work to plan for future products and services. For that, it is important to turn to methods that are used for technology forecasting. These tools help the companies to define potential markets for innovative new products and services. This paper uses text mining techniques along with expert judgment to detect and analyze the near-term technology evolution trends in a Software as a Service (SaaS) case study. The longer-term technology development trend in this case is forecasted by analyzing the gaps between science and technology. This paper contributes to the technology forecasting methodology and will be of interest to those in SaaS technology. Our findings reveal five trends in the technology: 1) virtual networking, 2) the hybrid cloud, 3) modeling methodologies, 4) mobile applications, and 5) web applications. Among the results achieved, we can summarize the interesting ones as follows: it is possible to say that traditional information systems are now evolving into online information systems. On the other hand, the use of a licensing model based on subscriptions triggers the change in perpetual licensing models. The product range that has evolved towards mobile technologies has put pressure on information storage technologies and has led to the search for new methods especially in the development of database systems.
- Published
- 2021
28. A metamodel of an informational structure for modelbased technology roadmapping
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Ilya Yuskevich, Marija Jankovic, Andreas M. Hein, Kahina Amokrane-Ferka, Abdelkrim Doufene, Laboratoire Génie Industriel (LGI), CentraleSupélec-Université Paris-Saclay, and IRT SystemX (IRT SystemX)
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[SPI.OTHER]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Other ,Computer science ,Process (engineering) ,02 engineering and technology ,Hardware_PERFORMANCEANDRELIABILITY ,Field (computer science) ,Software ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Hardware_INTEGRATEDCIRCUITS ,Business and International Management ,GeneralLiterature_REFERENCE(e.g.,dictionaries,encyclopedias,glossaries) ,Applied Psychology ,computer.programming_language ,Strategic planning ,Structure (mathematical logic) ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,020207 software engineering ,Metamodeling ,Model-driven architecture ,Software engineering ,business ,computer ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Recent contributions in the field of technology roadmapping often aim to apply various numerical models and tools to facilitate the roadmapping process and enrich its outcomes. This trend resulted in the emergence of so-called model-based technology roadmapping. We consider it as the future development of the traditional document-based paradigm. One of the general approaches to support the model-based roadmapping is to develop a roadmap's metamodel that would define it independently from the application context and link it to the existing roadmapping literature. In this paper, we attempt to create such a metamodel by generalizing and formalizing existing document-based roadmaps. We validate our metamodel via reproducing three very different roadmaps from the literature, not included in the set of roadmaps from which the metamodel was created, using the novel formal approach. The fact that these roadmaps were reproduced using the proposed metamodel indicates its applicability to many classes of real roadmaps. The results of this work seem beneficial for architects of the software tools for roadmapping and for the regular participants of roadmapping sessions.
- Published
- 2021
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29. Applying TRIZ Tools in Product Foresight and Technology Forecasting: A Case Study from Industry
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Jens Hammer, Alexander Kiesel, and Martin Kiesel
- Subjects
Futures studies ,law ,Process (engineering) ,business.industry ,Computer science ,New product development ,Key (cryptography) ,TRIZ ,Product (category theory) ,business ,Manufacturing engineering ,Technology forecasting ,law.invention - Abstract
The systematic observing and evaluation of the technology to obtain early information about the opportunities and risks of new technological developments is a key objective of technology forecasting and product foresight. The technology evaluation articulates the technology-related knowledge to assess the identified technologies’ potential use in products and processes. In this paper, the focus will be on existing forecasting methods and combinations. Moreover, the paper will figure out, if TRIZ and combinations of its methods support the forecasting process and which value it has been created. The paper provides a case study how TRIZ tools can be applied for an innovative, and more digital product like the Tesla car and derives future potential for the product and the embedded technologies. After that, it is compared with available expert view on the future to outline the differences in comparison to the TRIZ-based approach. As a result, implications for practice and research are summarized based on the developed TRIZ framework and its applicability to industry.
- Published
- 2021
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30. Technology Intelligence Map: Space Tourism
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Moise Degan, Tugrul U. Daim, Bhavana Ramesh, Bharat Verma, and Rita Snodgrass
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Development (topology) ,biology ,business.industry ,Orbit (dynamics) ,Apollo ,Space (commercial competition) ,Telecommunications ,business ,biology.organism_classification ,Technology intelligence ,Maturity (finance) ,Space exploration ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Since the Apollo 11 launch to the moon in 1969, there have been numerous space missions. However, this space travel has always been conducted by NASA alone or NASA in collaboration with the US military and other country’s space agencies. Now, through research and development, private companies like Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and SpaceX are racing to fulfill the dreams of many, by proposing to take civilian customers on space excursions. But space tourism is in its infancy. This chapter looks at seven technologies that are necessary for space tourism to succeed; the vessel, fuel, navigation, health and safety technology, physics, communication systems, orbit control systems, and sensors, examining each through a literature review. Our seven key technologies are then examined using a technology forecasting technique – patent analysis – to reveal their growth curve. Our study shows that the last of the technology necessary to support safe space tourism will not reach maturity for another century.
- Published
- 2021
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31. Digitizing Grocery Retailing: The Role of Emerging Technologies in the Value Chain
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Sascha Kraus, Julia Weyer, Peter M. Bican, and Victor Tiberius
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Knowledge management ,business.industry ,Emerging technologies ,Value proposition ,05 social sciences ,Big data ,Delphi method ,Grocery retailing ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,050211 marketing ,Augmented reality ,Value chain ,business ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Multiple emerging technologies both threaten grocers and offer them attractive opportunities to enhance their value propositions, improve processes, reduce costs, and therefore generate competitive advantages. Among the variety of technological innovations and considering the scarcity of resources, it is unclear which technologies to focus on and where to implement them in the value chain. To develop the most probable technology forecast that addresses the application of emerging technologies in the grocery value chain within the current decade, we conduct a two-stage Delphi study. Our results suggest a high relevance of almost all technologies. The panel is only skeptical about three specific projections. As a consequence, grocers are advised to build up knowledge regarding the application of these technologies in the most promising areas of their value chain.
- Published
- 2020
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32. The Role of 5G in Limiting the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic [Mobile Radio]
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Matthias Patzold
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Mobile radio ,business.industry ,020206 networking & telecommunications ,02 engineering and technology ,Critical infrastructure ,Market research ,Work (electrical) ,Pandemic ,Automotive Engineering ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Mobile telephony ,Telecommunications ,business ,Technology forecasting ,5G - Abstract
Reports on the impact of 5G mobile communications in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ericsson expects the global number of 5G subscriptions to exceed 190 million by the end of 2020 and 2.8 billion by the end of 2025. The forecast is included in the June 2020 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report [1], along with projections for data traffic growth and regional 5G subscriptions. The report also takes a sharp look at the role of networks and digital infrastructure in keeping societies running and families connected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The spread of COVID-19 has prompted people around the world to change their daily lives and, in many cases, work or study from home. This has led to a rapid shift of network traffic from business to residential areas. The latest Ericsson Mobility Report shows that mobile and fixed networks are increasingly an even bigger part of critical national infrastructure.
- Published
- 2020
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33. Technology Forecasting Model Based on Trends of Engineering System Evolution (TESE) and Big Data for 4IR
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Mostafa Ghane, Mei Choo Ane, Rabiah Abdul Kadir, and Kok Weng Ng
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Computer science ,business.industry ,Product innovation ,Technical systems ,Big data ,Sorting ,Technological evolution ,Data science ,law.invention ,ComputingMilieux_GENERAL ,law ,TRIZ ,business ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
This article presented a research work to enhance one of the TRIZ tools: Trends of Engineering System Evolution (TESE) which is useful to assess the evolution direction of technical systems in 4th industrial revolution (4IR) for forecasting technological trends. TESE has hierarchical levels of multiple trends and sub-trends for forecasting the technological evolution and was well-established in product innovation but has no link to the data in patent information. Patent data is growing exponentially annually and is Big Data that can be mined and integrated with TESE. In this paper, a novel model using Big Data technologies was proposed to extract semistructured data in U.S. Patents Data where the basis of classification and sorting of patents were done based on the trends and sub-trends of TESE for product innovation. Initial experiments were conducted to demonstrate the potential efficacy of the novel model.
- Published
- 2020
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34. Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: A school of thought perspective
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Jae Yun Ho, Eoin O'Sullivan, Robert Phaal, Hyunkyu Park, Park, Hyunkyu [0000-0003-4135-8001], Phaal, Robert [0000-0001-5585-1548], O'Sullivan, Eoin [0000-0003-3582-7940], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
- Subjects
Topic model ,Solution-oriented research ,business.industry ,020209 energy ,05 social sciences ,Perspective (graphical) ,Social change ,02 engineering and technology ,Public relations ,Schools of thought ,Theory-oriented research ,School of thought ,Body of knowledge ,Beijing ,Content analysis ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Sociology ,Roadmapping ,Business and International Management ,business ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Two decades ago the thirtieth-anniversary special issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change correctly anticipated the widespread adoption of technology and strategic roadmapping at firm, sectoral and national levels. In this article, we explore the evolution of roadmapping studies since that time. Drawing on a mixed-methods approach (i.e. topic modelling, genealogical analysis, content analysis and interviews), we reveal the development of seven distinctive ‘schools of thought’: the Cambridge practical school, the Seoul school, the Portland and Bangkok schools, the Cambridge phenomenological school, the Beijing school and the Moscow school. We show that the schools differ in terms of (a) the research orientation, whether it be solution- or theory-oriented; (b) the research methods and data sources being used; and (c) the nature of contributions that each school seeks to achieve. The different areas of emphasis associated with each school are not competing but complementary, and together they develop the eclectic body of knowledge on roadmapping.
- Published
- 2020
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35. 50 Years of Corporate and Organizational Foresight:Looking Back and Going Forward
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Adam Gordon, René Rohrbeck, Matthew J. Spaniol, and Mirza Ramic
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Knowledge management ,Process (engineering) ,020209 energy ,Strategy ,02 engineering and technology ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,Political science ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Business and International Management ,Innovation ,Corporate Foresight ,Applied Psychology ,Literature review ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Social change ,Futures studies ,Planning ,Systematic review ,Hardware_CONTROLSTRUCTURESANDMICROPROGRAMMING ,business ,Look-ahead ,Futures contract ,050203 business & management ,Technology forecasting ,Agile software development - Abstract
On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Technology Forecasting & Social Change, we review the evolution of corporate and organizational foresight within the journal and look ahead to the coming decade. We apply a systematic literature review process to identify the major contributions in this area of foresight theory and practice spanning five decades and present a thematic summary of these articles. We reveal the concerns of authors as they have sought to apply foresight in corporations, organizations, and institutions; how they have attempted to resolve the concerns; and the progress the authors have made. We discuss how these authors have cumulatively defined and evolved this portion of the strategic foresight field, from integrating technology with market forecasting, to expanding forecast approaches to include multiple futures and integrating foresight to create agile and adaptive organizations. We use this as a base for discussing current priorities and future challenges in corporate and organizational foresight and suggest three trajectories for further research: (a) further advancing organizational foresight practices; (b) connecting organizational foresight to strategy practice and theory; (c) and connecting organizational foresight to innovation, engineering, and R&D management practices and theory.
- Published
- 2020
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- View/download PDF
36. Current status and future forecasting of biofuels technology development
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Mohammad Hossein Ahmadi, Alireza Aslani, Narjes Sadat Karbalaie Ghomi, and Mohammad Dehghani Madvar
- Subjects
Fuel Technology ,Nuclear Energy and Engineering ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Biofuel ,business.industry ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,Environmental science ,Environmental economics ,Technology development ,Current (fluid) ,business ,Technology forecasting ,Renewable energy - Published
- 2019
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37. Characterization of strategic emerging technologies: the case of big data
- Author
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Iñaki Bildosola, Gaizka Garechana, Enara Zarrabeitia, and Ernesto Cilleruelo
- Subjects
021103 operations research ,business.industry ,Computer science ,Emerging technologies ,Frame (networking) ,Big data ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Bibliometrics ,Data science ,Field (computer science) ,Work (electrical) ,Mobile telephony ,business ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Current enterprises face organizational and cultural barriers to adopt and harness the potential of strategic emerging technologies. Late adoption of these technologies will affect competitiveness from which it will be hard to recover. Within the frame of technology analysis field, the present work aims at introducing an approach to obtain the characterization of emerging technologies, which facilitates understanding and identifies their potential. This characterization is based on the analysis of scientific activity, to which a set of quantitative methods is applied, namely bibliometrics, text mining, principal component analysis and time series analysis. The outcome is based on obtaining a set of dominant sub-technologies, which are described by means of individual time series, which also allow evolution of the technology as a whole to be forecasted. The approach is applied to the Big Data technology field and the results suggest that sub-technologies such as Mobile Telecommunications and Internet of things will lead this field in the near future.
- Published
- 2018
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- View/download PDF
38. Patent Mining using Beta Regression and R Text Mining
- Author
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Sung-Hae Jun
- Subjects
Computer science ,business.industry ,020209 energy ,02 engineering and technology ,021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology ,computer.software_genre ,Patent mining ,Text mining ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Data mining ,Beta regression ,0210 nano-technology ,business ,computer ,Technology forecasting - Published
- 2018
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39. The structure and knowledge flow of building information modeling based on patent citation network analysis
- Author
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Jae-Jun Kim, Yoo-Na Park, Yoon-Sun Lee, and Tai Sik Lee
- Subjects
Strategic planning ,Trademark ,Knowledge management ,business.industry ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,05 social sciences ,Big data ,ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING ,02 engineering and technology ,Building and Construction ,Business value ,Building information modeling ,Control and Systems Engineering ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,business ,Citation ,050203 business & management ,Patent classification ,Technology forecasting ,Civil and Structural Engineering - Abstract
Building information modeling (BIM) creates new business value and innovation in the construction engineering industry. This study identifies BIM technology structure and the characteristics of knowledge flow through a patent citation network. A technology patent database was collected with backward and forward citation patents currently registered in the US Patents and Trademark Office and identified by the Cooperative Patent Classification. Technology citation networks interact and follow the power law distribution. The analysis of individual patent characteristics and intermediaries revealed digital data processing and telemetry systems as core technology fields stimulating innovative BIM technology. This study overcomes the limitations of previous methods of technology forecasting that have depended on expert opinion or peer review by performing a patent big data analysis to ascertain the domain of the BIM industry. This approach could soon be applied to R&D strategy planning and competition in business and the development of cutting-edge technology.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Innovation potentials and pathways merging Ai, CPS, and IoT
- Author
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Matthias Klumpp and Industrial Engineering & Business Information Systems
- Subjects
0209 industrial biotechnology ,Artificial intelligence ,Knowledge management ,UT-Gold-D ,Industry 4.0 ,Computer science ,Supply chain ,Internet of Things ,02 engineering and technology ,Business model ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,020901 industrial engineering & automation ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,business.industry ,Applied Mathematics ,Cyber-physical systems ,Cyber-physical system ,artificial intelligence ,cyber-physical systems ,technology forecasting ,Automation ,Human-Computer Interaction ,Control and Systems Engineering ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,business ,Technology forecasting ,Information Systems ,Information integration ,Global value chain - Abstract
Recent advances in the areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the informatics field, Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in the production field, and Internet of Things (IoT) in the logistics and transportation field have induced a tremendous growth and innovation potential for global value chain setups. The question is not if further innovation and automation will happen but when—sooner than later—and how. Independent of physical production innovations (additive manufacturing) the information integration and decision autonomy tendencies themselves will drive new supply chain and customer interaction designs and business models. This article presents a technology forecast model based on extensive descriptions of developments by field as well as interaction traits. Results suggest that the crucial element in AI and technology application in logistics will be the human factor and human-artificial cooperation capacities and attitudes.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. The relation between knowledge accumulation and technical value in interdisciplinary technologies
- Author
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Andy Dong and Praveena Chandra
- Subjects
Patent citation network ,Patent value ,Knowledge management ,Computer science ,050905 science studies ,Body of knowledge ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,Business and International Management ,Invention ,Lagging ,Applied Psychology ,Knowledge accumulation ,0899 Other Information and Computing Sciences ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Variance (accounting) ,Technology management ,Technical value ,Metric (unit) ,0509 other social sciences ,Technology forecasting ,business ,Value (mathematics) ,050203 business & management - Abstract
A challenging task in technology management is the early identification of potentially valuable inventions. The depth, breadth, and age of the body of knowledge underlying an invention are theorized to indicate the technical experience of the sectors relevant to the invention. Prior research assessing this body of knowledge have focused on the content of knowledge through bibliometric and semantic indicators but neglected the structural role of knowledge underlying a patent. Focusing on technical value, we propose a new metric that accounts for the structural maturity of knowledge preceding an invention. Using a composite patent value and multiple generation citation networks, we compare knowledge accumulation in 60 originating patents for inventions in the energy-harvesting sector over a 100-year observation period, resulting in an analysis of 1900 patents. The results indicate that our metric for knowledge accumulation reveals a statistically significant correlation between the structural maturity of the knowledge that contributes to the specific invention and technical value of a patent. The structural view on knowledge accumulation explains at least as much variance in the composite value of patents as current knowledge content-based indicators, and, unlike those indicators, is useful as a leading rather than lagging indicator. This metric can therefore find application in technology forecasting as a forward indicator of the technical value of inventions.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
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42. How to publish your research in Technological Forecasting & Social Change
- Author
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Fred Phillips
- Subjects
business.industry ,020209 energy ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,Social change ,02 engineering and technology ,Public relations ,Presentation ,Order (business) ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,Political science ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Business and International Management ,Paragraph ,business ,Publication process ,Publication ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting ,media_common - Abstract
A slide presentation of this material has been well received in several countries. Presenting it here in paragraph form should be helpful to additional authors. The editorial explains the current flow path for incoming submissions to Technological Forecasting & Social Change. It details five areas authors should attend to, in order that their manuscripts should pass the Editor-in-Chief's and Associate Editors' preliminary approval, and be sent to external peer review. It concludes with a list of twenty common mistakes that would prevent a paper from going to peer-review.
- Published
- 2019
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- View/download PDF
43. Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators
- Author
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Oh-Jin Kwon, Daeil Kwon, Changyong Lee, and Myeongjung Kim
- Subjects
Trademark ,Artificial neural network ,Computer science ,Emerging technologies ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,050905 science studies ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Data science ,Patent citation ,Identification (information) ,Pharmaceutical technology ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,Key (cryptography) ,Artificial intelligence ,0509 other social sciences ,Business and International Management ,business ,computer ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Patent citation analysis is considered a useful tool for identifying emerging technologies. However, the outcomes of previous methods are likely to reveal no more than current key technologies, since they can only be performed at later stages of technology development due to the time required for patents to be cited (or fail to be cited). This study proposes a machine learning approach to identifying emerging technologies at early stages using multiple patent indicators that can be defined immediately after the relevant patents are issued. For this, first, a total of 18 input and 3 output indicators are extracted from the United States Patent and Trademark Office database. Second, a feed-forward multilayer neural network is employed to capture the complex nonlinear relationships between input and output indicators in a time period of interest. Finally, two quantitative indicators are developed to identify trends of a technology's emergingness over time. Based on this, we also provide the practical guidelines for implementation of the proposed approach. The case of pharmaceutical technology shows that our approach can facilitate responsive technology forecasting and planning.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
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44. Концептуализация стратегической инновационной безопасности страны
- Author
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Vitaliy Omelyanenko
- Subjects
National security ,Process management ,media_common.quotation_subject ,state policy ,strategic innovation security ,national security ,technological forecasting ,technological dynamics ,lcsh:Business ,Conformity ,lcsh:Technology (General) ,Dimension (data warehouse) ,media_common ,стратегическая инновационная безопасность ,национальная безопасность ,технологическое прогнозирование ,технологическая динамика ,государственная политика ,Conceptualization ,стратегічна інноваційна безпека ,національна безпека ,технологічне прогнозування ,технологічна динаміка ,державна політика ,business.industry ,Innovation system ,UDC 338 (470.41) ,Military security ,lcsh:T1-995 ,business ,lcsh:HF5001-6182 ,Technology forecasting ,Qualitative research - Abstract
The object of research is the strategic innovation security of the country. The need to analyze the innovative dimension of strategic security is due to the fact that narrowing national security in the military and political aspect in relation to national security and defense interests is an erroneous approach in modern conditions. Innovative security is the component linking research directions in the interests of ensuring both the military security of the country and its social and economic development.Both classical scientific methods (analysis and synthesis, logical generalization, analogies, comparative comparison), and specific methods of the economy of high technology and innovative management are used in the research.Conceptual bases of information and analytical support of strategic innovation security are developed, which require the development of sound and effective management solutions that integrate various sources of information and rely on a wide range of quantitative and qualitative methods with a focus on the long-term perspective. Based on the analysis of a number of foreign SSM concepts and national security analysts, a range of tasks is identified, which should be addressed within the framework of strategic innovation security analysts.A set of indicators is identified to determine the assessment of the state of strategic innovation security. It is suggested to consider macro-indicators of strategic innovation security:reflect the conformity of the national to the global innovative trends;organizational and management indicators reflecting the compliance of the innovation infrastructure and the level of innovative communications within the innovation system and with the global innovation system to the requirements of new innovative and technological trends;sectoral indicators of innovation security, reflecting the level of compliance of industry technologies and products with promising requirements and specific industry technological trajectories.Due to the consideration of strategic innovation security as the leading factor of national security, it is possible to develop appropriate assessment criteria based on technological dynamics., Об’єктом дослідження є стратегічна інноваційна безпека країни. Необхідність аналізу інноваційного виміру стратегічної безпеки обумовлена тим, що звуження національної безпеки до військово-політичного аспекту в прив'язці до національних інтересів у сфері безпеки та оборони є помилковим підходом в сучасних умовах. Інноваційна безпека є тим компонентом, що пов’язує напрямки досліджень в інтересах забезпечення як військової безпеки країни, так і її соціально-економічного розвитку.В дослідженні було використано як класичні наукові методи (аналізу та синтезу, логічного узагальнення, аналогій, порівняльного співставлення), так і специфічні методи економіки високих технологій та інноваційного менеджменту.Розроблено концептуальні основи інформаційно-аналітичного забезпечення стратегічної інноваційної безпеки, що передбачають необхідність вироблення обґрунтованих та ефективних управлінських рішень, що інтегрують різні джерела інформації та спираються на широкий спектр кількісних та якісних методів з фокусом на довгострокову перспективу. На основі аналізу ряду іноземних концепцій SSM та аналітики національної безпеки визначено спектр завдань, що має вирішуватися в рамках аналітики стратегічної інноваційної безпеки.Визначено набір індикаторів для визначення оцінки стану стратегічної інноваційної безпеки. Запропоновано розглядати макроіндикатори стратегічної інноваційної безпеки, що:відображають відповідність національної стратегії глобальним інноваційним трендам;організаційно-управлінські індикатори, що відображають відповідність інноваційної інфраструктури та рівня інноваційних комунікацій в рамках інноваційної системи та з глобальною інноваційною системою вимогам нових інноваційно-технологічних трендів;секторальні індикатори інноваційної безпеки, що відображають рівень відповідності галузевих технологій та продуктів перспективним вимогам та специфічним галузевим технологічним траєкторіям.Завдяки розгляду стратегічної інноваційної безпеки як провідного фактору національної безпеки забезпечується можливість розробки відповідних критеріїв оцінки на основі урахування технологічної динаміки., Объектом исследования является стратегическая инновационная безопасность страны. Необходимость анализа инновационного измерения стратегической безопасности обусловлена тем, что сужение национальной безопасности в военно-политический аспект в привязке к национальным интересам в сфере безопасности и обороны является ошибочным подходом в современных условиях. Инновационная безопасность является тем компонентом, который связывает направления исследований в интересах обеспечения как военной безопасности страны, так и ее социально-экономического развития.В исследовании были использованы как классические научные методы (анализа и синтеза, логического обобщения, аналогий, сравнительного сопоставления), так и специфические методы экономики высоких технологий и инновационного менеджмента.Разработаны концептуальные основы информационно-аналитического обеспечения стратегической инновационной безопасности, которые предусматривают необходимость выработки обоснованных и эффективных управленческих решений, интегрирующих различные источники информации и опирающихся на широкий спектр количественных и качественных методов с фокусом на долгосрочную перспективу. На основе анализа ряда иностранных концепций SSM и аналитики национальной безопасности определен спектр задач, который должен решаться в рамках аналитики стратегической инновационной безопасности.Определен набор индикаторов для определения оценки состояния стратегической инновационной безопасности. Предложено рассматривать макроиндикаторы стратегической инновационной безопасности, которые:отражают соответствие национальной стратегии глобальным инновационным трендам;организационно-управленческие индикаторы, отражающие соответствие инновационной инфраструктуры и уровня инновационных коммуникаций в рамках инновационной системы и с глобальной инновационной системой требованиям новых инновационно-технологических трендов;секторальные индикаторы инновационной безопасности, отражающие уровень соответствия отраслевых технологий и продуктов перспективным требованиям и специфическим отраслевым технологическим траекториям.Благодаря рассмотрению стратегической инновационной безопасности как ведущего фактора национальной безопасности обеспечивается возможность разработки соответствующих критериев оценки на основе учета технологической динамики.
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- 2018
45. Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology using fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods: Case study from the aerospace industry
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Navid Mohammadi, Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas, Tugrul U. Daim, Amir Salar Vanaki, and Jalil Heidary Dahooie
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Matching (statistics) ,Sociology and Political Science ,Computer science ,Aviation ,business.industry ,Delphi method ,Human Factors and Ergonomics ,Fuzzy logic ,Industrial engineering ,Education ,Tree (data structure) ,Relevance (information retrieval) ,Business and International Management ,business ,Technology forecasting ,Pace - Abstract
Given the accelerating pace of technological advances and environmental changes, technology-based companies are required to predict and understand future events in their environments. However, there is a wide range of forecasting methods creating confusion on which method to use. This paper demonstrates the selection of an appropriate technique for technology forecasting in the Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO). To this end, a review of the literature was first reviewed to extract the proper criteria for selecting a forecasting method. Next, the SWARA and fuzzy MUTLIMOORA methods were used to evaluate and prioritize a total of twelve forecasting methods proposed for the case study. The results suggested that the Delphi method for technology forecasting in the IAIO. Scenario writing and the relevance tree are the next proper alternatives that can be used.
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- 2021
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46. New insights into ‘technologies of touch’: Information processing in product evaluation and purchase intention
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Margot Racat, Jessica Lichy, and Sonia Capelli
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Knowledge management ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Interface (Java) ,020209 energy ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,Social change ,Information processing ,02 engineering and technology ,Pleasure ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Mental representation ,Product (category theory) ,Business and International Management ,business ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Consumer behaviour ,Technology forecasting ,media_common - Abstract
Technology forecasting is a preliminary step in understanding social change. The response to COVID-19 will affect retailers and customers for years to come, forcing changes to interactions between individuals and technology. Innovative technologies that interrelate social and technological factors merit a re-examination, to explain the impact on consumer behavior where ‘physical’ and ‘digital’ are brought together. This paper explores the use of haptic rendering stimulation for pre-purchase decision-making. The objective is to identify how touching an interface can influence product evaluation and purchase intention. Drawing from an exploratory experimental design, the findings show the importance of interface touch for inferring product information or pleasure to interact with the product, confirming the relationship between knowledge and mental representation, body sensory-motor actions and online shopping contexts.
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- 2021
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47. Power Electronics in 2025 and Beyond: A Focus on Power Electronics and Systems Technology
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Don Tan
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Engineering ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,020208 electrical & electronic engineering ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,02 engineering and technology ,Modular design ,Power (social and political) ,Presentation ,Control and Systems Engineering ,Power electronics ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Session (computer science) ,Wireless power transfer ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,business ,Telecommunications ,Energy harvesting ,Technology forecasting ,media_common - Abstract
The future of power electronics in 2025 and beyond was the focus of session five of the Future of Electronic Power Processing and Conversion (FEPPCON) IX, which was held in June in Kruger Park, South Africa. This session was organized into five presentations, the first of which was given by Fred Lee, a U.S. National Academy of Engineering member and a distinguished professor at Virginia Tech. He described how to gain a better understanding of the modular multilevel converter (MMC) control to minimize the circulating current. This method has the potential to unleash the full power of MMCs. Prof. Zhengming Zhao of Tsinghua University, and the principal investigator of the Vitally Important Technology Development Program, sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, gave the second demonstration. He discussed the challenges facing megawatt power electronic circuit design and hardware development, especially in transient conditions. Afterward, the third lecture was given by Don Tan, distinguished engineer of Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems. His talk presented two challenges that are facing power electronics communities for megawatt simulation and design. Dianguo Xu, vice president and professor of Harbin Institute of Technology's presentation was next and highlighted the potential challenges in connected motor drives and their impacts on the society at large. Finally, Ron Hui and C.K. Lee, both from Hong Kong University, gave the last presentation. Prof. Hui is a member of British Royal Society. They examined energy harvesting and wireless power transfer.
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- 2017
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48. Forecasting emerging technologies: A supervised learning approach through patent analysis
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Yunqing Huang, Moses Ntanda Kyebambe, Ge Cheng, Chunhui He, and Zhenyu Zhang
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Trademark ,Emerging technologies ,Computer science ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Supervised learning ,050905 science studies ,Automation ,Data science ,Patent analysis ,Citation analysis ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,Unsupervised learning ,0509 other social sciences ,Business and International Management ,business ,050203 business & management ,Applied Psychology ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Both private and public enterprises have great interest in prior knowledge of emerging technologies to enable them make strategic investments. Technology forecasting offers a relevant opportunity in this direction and is currently a hot upcoming area of research. However, accurate forecasting of emerging technologies is still problematic mainly due to absence labeled historical data to use in training of learners. Previous studies have approached the technological forecasting problem through unsupervised learning methods and, as such, are missing out on potential benefits of supervised learning approaches such as full automation. In this study, we propose a novel algorithm to automatically label data and then use the labeled data to train learners to forecast emerging technologies. As a case study, we used patent citation data provided by the United States Patent and Trademark Office to test and evaluate the proposed algorithm. The algorithm uses advanced patent citation techniques to derive useful predictors from patent citation data with a result of forecasting new technologies at least a year before they emerge. Our evaluation reveals that our proposed algorithm can retrieve as high as 70% of emerging technologies in a given year with high precision.
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- 2017
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49. As Technologies for Nucleotide Therapeutics Mature, Products Emerge
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Fred D. Ledley, Laura M. McNamee, and Jennifer M. Beierlein
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0301 basic medicine ,antisense ,technology management ,oligonucleotide therapeutics ,Computational biology ,Technology assessment ,Biology ,Bioinformatics ,Article ,Novel gene ,03 medical and health sciences ,ribozyme ,0302 clinical medicine ,Drug Discovery ,Biomedical technology ,data analytics ,Product Approvals ,miRNA ,business.industry ,Oligonucleotide ,technology forecasting ,lcsh:RM1-950 ,small interfering RNA ,Technology management ,030104 developmental biology ,lcsh:Therapeutics. Pharmacology ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,RNAi ,New product development ,FDA approval ,Molecular Medicine ,business ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
The long path from initial research on oligonucleotide therapies to approval of antisense products is not unfamiliar. This lag resembles those encountered with monoclonal antibodies, gene therapies, and many biological targets and is consistent with studies of innovation showing that technology maturation is a critical determinant of product success. We previously described an analytical model for the maturation of biomedical research, demonstrating that the efficiency of targeted and biological development is connected to metrics of technology growth. The present work applies this model to characterize the advance of oligonucleotide therapeutics. We show that recent oligonucleotide product approvals incorporate technologies and targets that are past the established point of technology growth, as do most of the oligonucleotide products currently in phase 3. Less mature oligonucleotide technologies, such as miRNAs and some novel gene targets, have not passed the established point and have not yielded products. This analysis shows that oligonucleotide product development has followed largely predictable patterns of innovation. While technology maturation alone does not ensure success, these data show that many oligonucleotide technologies are sufficiently mature to be considered part of the arsenal for therapeutic development. These results demonstrate the importance of technology assessment in strategic management of biomedical technologies.
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- 2017
50. Research and application of ensemble forecasting based on a novel multi-objective optimization algorithm for wind-speed forecasting
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Jian Wang, Wenqian Mao, Cheng Liu, Wenyu Zhang, Kequan Zhang, and Zongxi Qu
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Mathematical optimization ,Optimization problem ,Wind power ,Ensemble forecasting ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,Pareto principle ,Stability (learning theory) ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,02 engineering and technology ,Wind speed ,Fuel Technology ,Nuclear Energy and Engineering ,Search algorithm ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,business ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Technology forecasting - Abstract
Wind energy is rapidly emerging as an appealing energy option because it is both abundant and environmentally friendly. Because of the stochastic nature and intrinsic complexity of wind speed, precise and reliable wind-speed prediction is vital for wind-farm planning and the operational planning of power grids. To improve wind-speed forecasting accuracy or stability, many forecasting approaches have been proposed. However, these models usually only consider one criterion (accuracy or stability) and have limitations associated with using individual models. In this paper, an ensemble method optimized by a novel multi-objective optimization algorithm is introduced. With respect to ensemble weight coefficients, a bias-variance framework, which is formulated by a multi-objective optimization problem, is used to assess model accuracy and stability. A novel hybrid flower pollination with bat search algorithm is proposed to search for the optimal weight coefficients based on the previous step, while Pareto optimality theory provides the necessary conditions to identify an optimal solution. In addition, data decomposition and de-noising are also incorporated into the data pre-processing stage. To evaluate the forecasting ability of the proposed model, a case study of 12 wind-speed datasets from two wind farms in the eastern coastal areas of China was completed. The experimental results of this study indicate that the developed ensemble model is superior to other comparison models in terms of the high precision and stability of wind-speed prediction.
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- 2017
- Full Text
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