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Insect declines are being reported worldwide and private, residential gardens could provide refugia for these species under increasing land use change. Interest in wildlife-friendly gardening has increased, but many management recommendations lack a scientific evidence-base. We used a large citizen science scheme, the Garden Butterfly Survey (GBS), with data from over 600 gardens across Great Britain (2016-2021) to determine how the surrounding landscape influences the abundance and species richness of butterflies in gardens and whether wildlife-friendly gardening practices, such as having long grass and providing nectar plants, benefit butterflies. First, we show that GBS provides reliable estimates of species abundances by comparing with results from standardised, long-term monitoring data. Garden size and surrounding land use had significant effects on butterfly abundance and richness in gardens, including positive relationships with garden size, woodland and arable farmland and negative relationships with urbanisation. Both the presence and area of long grass in gardens were positively related to higher butterfly richness and abundance, with the latter being driven by butterflies that use grasses as larval host plants. These effects differed depending on the surrounding landscape, such that long grass resulted in higher garden butterfly abundance in landscapes dominated by arable farming, and higher abundance and richness in highly urbanised areas. The presence of flowering ivy (Hedera spp.) in gardens resulted in higher abundance of Celastrina argiolus holly blue which uses ivy as a larval host, and of Vanessa atalanta red admiral and Polygonia c-album comma, which favour it as a nectar source. Our work provides evidence that undertaking simple wildlife-friendly garden practices can be beneficial for attracting butterflies, particularly in heavily modified areas. With over 728,000 ha of gardens in Great Britain, the cumulative effect of leaving areas of lawn uncut and providing nectar and larval host plants could be key for helping biodiversity., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Climate change and habitat loss present serious threats to nature. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data, the potential for land-use change and baseline land-use conditions to interact with a changing climate to affect biodiversity remains largely unknown. Here, we use historical land use, climate data and species observation data to investigate the patterns and causes of biodiversity change in Great Britain. We show that anthropogenic climate change and land conversion have broadly led to increased richness, biotic homogenization and warmer-adapted communities of British birds, butterflies and plants over the long term (50+ years) and short term (20 years). Biodiversity change was found to be largely determined by baseline environmental conditions of land use and climate, especially over shorter timescales, suggesting that biodiversity change in recent periods could reflect an inertia derived from past environmental changes. Climate-land-use interactions were mostly related to long-term change in species richness and beta diversity across taxa. Semi-natural grasslands (in a broad sense, including meadows, pastures, lowland and upland heathlands and open wetlands) were associated with lower rates of biodiversity change, while their contribution to national-level biodiversity doubled over the long term. Our findings highlight the need to protect and restore natural and semi-natural habitats, alongside a fuller consideration of individual species' requirements beyond simple measures of species richness in biodiversity management and policy., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km 2 ) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Butterflies and moths, collectively Lepidoptera, are integral components of ecosystems, providing key services such as pollination and a prey resource for vertebrate and invertebrate predators. Lepidoptera are a relatively well studied group of invertebrates. In Great Britain and Ireland numerous citizen science projects provide data on changes in distribution and abundance. The availability of high-quality monitoring and recording data, combined with the rapid response of Lepidoptera to environmental change, makes them ideal candidates for traits-based ecological studies. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of studies documenting traits-based responses of Lepidoptera, highlighting the demand for a standardized and referenced traits database. There is a wide range of primary and secondary literature sources available regarding the ecology of British and Irish Lepidoptera to support such studies. Currently these sources have not been collated into one central repository that would facilitate and enhance future research. Here, we present a comprehensive traits database for the butterflies and macro-moths of Great Britain and Ireland. The database covers 968 species in 21 families. Ecological traits fall into four main categories: life cycle ecology and phenology, host plant specificity and characteristics, breeding habitat, and morphological characteristics. The database also contains data regarding species distribution, conservation status, and temporal trends for abundance and occupancy. This database can be used for a wide array of purposes including further fundamental research on species and community responses to environmental change, conservation and management studies, and evolutionary biology. There are no copyright restrictions, and this paper must be cited if data are used in publications., (© 2022 Butterfly Conservation. Ecology © 2022 The Ecological Society of America.)

Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature., (© 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Appropriate large-scale citizen-science data present important new opportunities for biodiversity modelling, due in part to the wide spatial coverage of information. Recently proposed occupancy modelling approaches naturally incorporate random effects in order to account for annual variation in the composition of sites surveyed. In turn this leads to Bayesian analysis and model fitting, which are typically extremely time consuming. Motivated by presence-only records of occurrence from the UK Butterflies for the New Millennium data base, we present an alternative approach, in which site variation is described in a standard way through logistic regression on relevant environmental covariates. This allows efficient occupancy model-fitting using classical inference, which is easily achieved using standard computers. This is especially important when models need to be fitted each year, typically for many different species, as with British butterflies for example. Using both real and simulated data we demonstrate that the two approaches, with and without random effects, can result in similar conclusions regarding trends. There are many advantages to classical model-fitting, including the ability to compare a range of alternative models, identify appropriate covariates and assess model fit, using standard tools of maximum likelihood. In addition, modelling in terms of covariates provides opportunities for understanding the ecological processes that are in operation. We show that there is even greater potential; the classical approach allows us to construct regional indices simply, which indicate how changes in occupancy typically vary over a species' range. In addition we are also able to construct dynamic occupancy maps, which provide a novel, modern tool for examining temporal changes in species distribution. These new developments may be applied to a wide range of taxa, and are valuable at a time of climate change. They also have the potential to motivate citizen scientists.

The benefits of protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity have been questioned in the context of climate change because PAs are static, whereas the distributions of species are dynamic. Current PAs may, however, continue to be important if they provide suitable locations for species to colonize at their leading-edge range boundaries, thereby enabling spread into new regions. Here, we present an empirical assessment of the role of PAs as targets for colonization during recent range expansions. Records from intensive surveys revealed that seven bird and butterfly species have colonized PAs 4.2 (median) times more frequently than expected from the availability of PAs in the landscapes colonized. Records of an additional 256 invertebrate species with less-intensive surveys supported these findings and showed that 98% of species are disproportionately associated with PAs in newly colonized parts of their ranges. Although colonizing species favor PAs in general, species vary greatly in their reliance on PAs, reflecting differences in the dependence of individual species on particular habitats and other conditions that are available only in PAs. These findings highlight the importance of current PAs for facilitating range expansions and show that a small subset of the landscape receives a high proportion of colonizations by range-expanding species.

Responses of species to climate change are extremely variable, perhaps because of climate-related changes to interactions among species. We show that temperature-related changes in the dependence of the butterfly Aricia agestis on different larval host plants have facilitated rapid range expansion. Historically, the butterfly was largely restricted to a single plant species, Helianthemum nummularium, but recent warmer conditions have enabled the butterfly to increasingly use the more widespread plant species Geranium molle. This has resulted in a substantial increase in available habitat and rapid range expansion by the butterfly (79 kilometers northward in Britain in 20 years). Interactions among species are often seen as constraints on species' responses to climate change, but we show that temperature-dependent changes to interspecific interactions can also facilitate change.

Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records--as assessed using widespread metrics--need not indicate a model's ability to predict the future.

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.

Many factors, including climate, resource availability, and habitat diversity, have been proposed as determinants of global diversity, but the links among them have rarely been studied. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we investigated direct and indirect effects of climate variables, host-plant richness, and habitat diversity on butterfly species richness across Britain, at 20-km grid resolution. These factors were all important determinants of butterfly diversity, but their relative contributions differed between habitat generalists and specialists, and whether the effects were direct or indirect. Climate variables had strong effects on habitat generalists, whereas host-plant richness and habitat diversity contributed relatively more for habitat specialists. Considering total effects (direct and indirect together), climate variables had the strongest link to butterfly species richness for all groups of species. The results suggest that different mechanistic hypotheses to explain species richness may be more appropriate for habitat generalists and specialists, with generalists hypothesized to show direct physiological limitations and specialists additionally being constrained by trophic interactions (climate affecting host-plant richness).

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.

Interpretation of global biodiversity change is hampered by a lack of information on the historical status of most species in most parts of the world. Here we show that declines and increases can be deduced from current species distributions alone, using spatial patterns of occupancy combined with distribution size. Declining species show sparse, fragmented distributions for their distribution size, reflecting the extinction process; expanding species show denser, more aggregated distributions, reflecting colonization. Past distribution size changes for British butterflies were deduced successfully from current distributions, and former distributions had some power to predict future change. What is more, the relationship between distribution pattern and change in British butterflies independently predicted distribution change for butterfly species in Flanders, Belgium, and distribution change in British rare plant species is similarly related to spatial distribution pattern. This link between current distribution patterns and processes of distribution change could be used to assess relative levels of threat facing different species, even for regions and taxa lacking detailed historical and ecological information.

Regular reassessment of extinction risk is critical to prioritise conservation action during the current period of rapid, anthropogenic biodiversity change.Butterflies are a flagship group for insect monitoring and conservation, as they are highly visible, well studied and exhibit rapid responses to environmental change. Here, we use systematic population monitoring data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and citizen‐science derived occurrence records to provide an updated assessment of extinction risk in Great Britain (GB) by applying current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria to 62 butterfly species.The resulting regional Red List categorises four species as Regionally Extinct, 24 (41% of the remaining, extant species) as threatened (8 Endangered and 16 Vulnerable), 5 (9%) as Near Threatened and 29 (50%) as Least Concern. Recent reduction in population size (Criterion A) based on smoothed, long‐term time series of abundance and occurrence data, was responsible for most of the threatened or Near Threatened categorisations.While the status of some species improved, likely due to conservation efforts, the revised Red List demonstrates an ongoing deterioration in the status of GB butterflies, with a 26% increase in threatened species since the previous assessment.A greater proportion of butterflies was classed as threatened than for most other GB taxa. While this may stem from greater data availability for butterflies than most other groups (thus allowing tests of extinction risk against more criteria), it highlights the need to reinvigorate conservation efforts for these charismatic insects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The description of how biological information is compiled over time is essential to detect temporal biases in biodiversity data that could directly influence the utility, comparability, and reliability of ecological and biogeographical studies.We explore trends in species recording over time using one of the most spatially and temporally comprehensive country‐level databases for any group of insects in the world – the database of butterfly occurrences from Great Britain.Firstly, we used two crucial milestones (the year in which the taxonomic inventory is complete, i.e., when the last species was recorded, the year in which all species are recorded together for the first time) to delimit three main phases in the process of biodiversity recording (taxonomic, faunistic and exhaustive phases). Secondly, we aimed to quantify how far species features (attractiveness and detectability) influence the process of recording through time.During the first stage of biodiversity compilation, when the main aim is to complete the taxonomic inventory (taxonomic period), entomologists tend to record attractive species more frequently. However, once the inventory is complete, particularly in the period during which more spatially and temporally comprehensive information about species distribution is amassed (the exhaustive period), the recording pattern clearly changes to more detectable species.Common, highly detectable species are undersampled in the first phase of biodiversity data compilation and oversampled in the final stages. Awareness of such temporal patterns in recording is necessary in order to correctly interpret and address bias in insect biodiversity trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science plays an increasingly important role in biodiversity research and conservation, enabling large volumes of data to be gathered across extensive spatial scales in a cost-effective manner. Open access increases the utility of such data, informing land-use decisions that may affect species persistence, enhancing transparency and encouraging proliferation of research applications. However, open access provision of recent, fine-scale spatial information on the locations of species may also prompt legitimate concerns among contributors regarding possible unintended negative conservation impacts, violations of privacy and commercial exploitation of volunteer-gathered data. Here we canvas the attitudes towards open access of contributors (104 regional co-ordinators and 510 recorders) of species occurrence records to two of the largest citizen science biodiversity recording schemes, the UK's Butterflies for the New Millennium project and National Moth Recording Scheme. We find that while the majority of participants expressed support for open access in principle, most were more cautious in practice, preferring to limit the spatial resolution of records, particularly of threatened species, and restrict commercial reuse of data. In addition, citizen scientists' opinions differed between UK countries, taxonomic groups and the level of involvement volunteers had in the schemes. In order to maintain successful and democratic citizen science schemes, organisers, funders and data users must understand and respect participants' expectations and aspirations regarding open data while seeking to optimise data use for scientific and societal benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Abundance data are the foundation for many ecological and conservation projects, but are only available for a few taxonomic groups. In contrast, distribution records (georeferenced presence records) are more widely available. Here we examine whether year‐to‐year changes in numbers of distribution records, collated over a large spatial scale, can provide a measure of species' population variability, and hence act as a metric of abundance changes. We used 33 British butterfly species to test this possibility, using distribution and abundance data (transect counts) from 1976 to 2012. Comparing across species, we found a strong correlation between mean year‐to‐year changes in total number of distribution records and mean year‐to‐year changes in abundance (N = 33 species; r2 = 0.66). This suggests that annual distribution data can be used to identify species with low versus high population variability. For individual species, there was considerable variation in the strength of relationships between year‐to‐year changes in total number of distribution records and abundance. Between‐year changes in abundance can be identified from distribution records most accurately for species whose populations are most variable (i.e. have high annual variation in numbers of records). We conclude that year‐to‐year changes in distribution records can indicate overall population variability within a taxon, and are a reasonable proxy for year‐to‐year changes in abundance for some types of species. This finding opens up more opportunities to inform ecological and conservation studies about population variability, based on the wealth of citizen science distribution records that are available for other taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Biotic regionalization provides fundamental information for biogeography and conservation. The current consensus is to couple turnover indices and clustering methods to identify regions with distinct biotic composition. Nevertheless, turnover indices can produce large numbers of zero and tied dissimilarity values generating multiple clustering solutions which vary according to the arbitrary order of cases in the input matrix. Zero and tied values are particularly numerous at mid-small spatial scales where low signals for turnover occur. Turnover patterns can be also obscured by incomplete sampling. 2. We have designed a new method (recluster.region) based on the creation of a new dissimilarity matrix involving a continuous consensus of cell clustering among different random trees. This matrix minimizes the bias produced by zero and tied values before the final clustering. We created virtual data sets with a priori generated turnover areas and compared the power of the new and of classicmethods in recognizing regionalization patterns on the basis of several evaluators (consistency among runs, correct attribution, mean silhouette width and explained dissimilarity) for different levels of sampling intensity [collection completeness (CC)]. We also used a real data set of British butterflies recorded for 10 9 10 km² cells to test ourmethod. 3. All methods were sensitive to the order of cases in the dissimilarity matrix. Some methods (UPGMA, UPGMC, WPGMA, WPGMC and single linkage) also produced ineffective clustering solutions. Our recluster. region procedures had higher consistency compared to classic clustering and performed best in recognizing the a priori determined regions in virtual data sets (mostly when in association withWard clustering).Moreover, for the real butterfly data set, recluster.region associated with Ward method and to a lesser extent with DIANA and complete linkage resulted in stable solutions, which largely agreed with the distribution of a set of species identified as responsible for generating the turnover pattern. The Ward method also performed best with low CC. 4. Regionalization can be greatly improved by using the recluster.region algorithm. For the data set of butterflies, it clearly revealed the occurrence of three faunistic regions, supporting the existence of a Holocene climatic refuge and a current Anthropocene refuge in northern and western Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas ( PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, ●●, ●●-●●. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is uncertain whether Protected Areas (PAs) will conserve high abundances of species as their distributions and abundances shift in response to climate change. We analyzed large datasets for 57 butterfly and 42 odonate species (including four that have recently colonized Britain). We found that 73 of 94 species with sufficient data for analysis were more abundant inside than outside PAs in the historical parts of their British distributions, showing that PAs have retained high conservation value. A significant majority (61 of 99 species) was also more abundant inside PAs in regions they have colonized during the last 30-40 years of climate warming. Species with relatively high abundances inside PAs in long-established parts of their distributions were also disproportionately associated with PAs in recently colonized regions, revealing a set of relatively PA-reliant species. Pas, therefore, play a vital role in the conservation of biodiversity as species' ranges become more dynamic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Species' abundances vary in space and time. Describing these patterns is a cornerstone of macroecology. Moreover, trends in population size are an important criterion for the assessment of a species' conservation status. Because abundance trends are not homogeneous in space, we need to quantify variation in abundance trends across the geographical range of a species. A basic difficulty exists in that data sets that cover large geographic areas rarely include population abundance data at high temporal resolution. Whilst both broad-scale geographic distribution data and site-specific population trend data are becoming more widely available, approaches are required which integrate these different types of data. 2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality. 3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations. 4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species' geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming. Here we show that the relative importance of species' abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species' abundance trends vary over time for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species' responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Insects are under-represented in current assessments of biodiversity loss at global and national scales. Butterflies, and a few other insect taxa, have been used as indicators of biodiversity change and as flagships for conservation, especially in temperate zones, but these groups are typically species-poor and may not be representative of insects as a whole. Macro-moths, on the other hand, are an important component of UK biodiversity, in terms of both species richness and ecosystem function. Moth abundance has decreased significantly in the UK and there is rapidly growing interest in the surveillance and monitoring of macro-moths among amateur and professional scientists. The Moths Count project was instigated to raise awareness of moths, increase moth recording and set up a long-term National Moth Recording Scheme for c.900 species of macro-moth in the UK. Since 2006, Moths Count has promoted moths to millions of people, trained and engaged thousands in recording and collated over eight million species distribution records into the National Moth Recording Scheme. These data, though incomplete at present, are already contributing to assessments of biodiversity loss and to conservation initiatives. We present initial results which show that substantial changes are already evident for macro-moths in the UK. The northern range margins of a sample of 12 species have shifted northwards by 194.8 km on average between 1982 and 2009 (7.8 km year over the 25 years between survey mid-points). Provisional distribution trends (not corrected for variation in recording effort) were calculated for 43 species and the results corroborated both positive and negative population-level changes assessed previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Butterfly Conservation, in partnership with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and Dublin Naturalists' Field Club, has been coordinating the collation of detailed geographical records of butterfly sightings across Britain and Ireland, mainly made by volunteers, for a continuous period of 15 years since 1995. This has generated a dataset of over 7.5 million records, supplemented by collated historical records. Results at the end of the first five-year period (1995-9) and at the end of the second five-year period (2000-4) indicated significant range declines in many species over a 30-year period (since baseline distributions recorded in the 1970s); for other species, there has been a significant extension of range, principally towards more northerly latitudes. This paper shows the results of a preliminary analysis for the end of the third five-year period (2005-9), to assess progress towards the EU target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010. The findings indicate that populations are continuing to be lost at a similar rate to previous periods, contrary to the 2010 target. In contrast, major northward extensions of range are reported for some mobile generalist species. Conservation successes are also reported for a few species whose declines have been halted and in some cases, reversed. Changes in range and species diversity remain consistent with the primary hypotheses for the causes of change: decreases caused by destruction, deterioration and fragmentation of biotopes and range increases in response to climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climatic change in temperate regions has been rapid and there is mounting speculation that species are failing to keep track of suitable climate, perhaps necessitating assisted colonization for some species. An inability to spread into new areas may result in large reductions in species’ ranges in the future, and threaten the survival of some species. Here we use “species-climate” models to predict suitable sites for introductions beyond current range margins, using two U.K. butterfly species. We introduced Melanargia galathea (marbled white) and Thymelicus sylvestris (small skipper) into two sites in northern England, ∼65 and ∼35 km beyond their then-range margins, respectively, to sites that were predicted to be climatically suitable and that appeared to contain suitable habitat for the species. Both introduced populations grew and expanded their range over 6 years (2001–2006; still thriving in 2008), suggesting the existence of a colonization lag and providing evidence that well-planned assisted colonization can be successful. We suggest that assisted colonization may be a feasible and cost-effective means of enabling certain species to track climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate-driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one-third to half of extinctions associated with climate-related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three-quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards ( A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill ( E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19-year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long-term survival of many northern and mountain species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]