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Conserving bird populations is a key goal for management of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta ecosystem and is likely to have effects well beyond its boundaries. To inform bird- conservation strategies, we identified Priority Bird Conservation Areas for riparian landbirds and waterbirds in the Delta, defined as the most valuable 5% of the landscape for each group. We synthesized data from 2,547 surveys for riparian landbirds and 7,820 surveys for waterbirds to develop predictive distribution models, which then informed spatial prioritization analyses. We identified a total of 26,019 ha that are a high priority for conserving riparian landbirds, waterbirds, or both, representing the most important places in the Delta to protect and manage, as well as strategic areas where adjacent restoration could expand valuable habitat. These Priority Bird Conservation Areas include the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area, Cosumnes River Preserve, Stone Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, and bufferlands that surround the Sacramento County Regional Sanitation District. However, we also found that over 60% of the Priority Bird Conservation Areas are not currently protected, indicating a vulnerability to changes in land cover or land use. We recommend advancing strategies for bird conservation in the Delta by developing more specific objectives and priorities, extending these analyses to include other bird species, and planning to mitigate the loss of Priority Bird Conservation Areas where they are most vulnerable to land cover change. The predictive models and analysis framework we developed represent the current state of the science on areas important to bird conservation, while also providing a foundation for an evolving bird-conservation strategy that reflects the Delta’s continuously evolving knowledge base and landscape.

An extensive network of managed wetlands and flooded agriculture provides habitat for migrating and wintering shorebirds in California’s Central Valley. Yet with over 90% of historical wetlands in the region lost, Central Valley shorebird populations are likely diminished and limited by available habitat. To identify the timing and magnitude of any habitat limitations during the non-breeding season, we developed a bioenergetics model that examined whether currently available shorebird foraging habitat is sufficient to meet the daily energy requirements of the shorebird community, at either the baseline population size surveyed from 1992 to 1995 or double this size, which we defined as our long-term (100-year) population objectives. Using recent estimates of the extent of managed wetlands and flooded agriculture, satellite imagery of surface water, energy content of benthic invertebrates, and shorebird metabolic rates, we estimated that shorebird foraging habitat in the Central Valley is currently limited during the fall. If the population sizes were doubled, we estimated substantial energy shortfalls in the fall (late July–September) and spring (mid-March–April) totaling 4.02 billion kJ (95% CI: 2.23–5.83) and 7.79 billion kJ (2.00–14.14), respectively. We then estimated long-term habitat objectives as the minimum additional shorebird foraging habitat required to eliminate these energy shortfalls; the corresponding short-term (10-year) habitat objectives are to maintain an additional 2,160 ha (5,337 ac) of shallow (

In California’s Central Valley, grassland and oak savannah ecosystems provide multiple economic and social benefits, ecosystem services, and vital bird habitat. There is a growing interest in protecting, restoring, and managing these ecosystems, and the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) provides leadership in the formulation of conservation goals and objectives. We defined a long-term goal of protecting, restoring, and managing Central Valley grassland and oak savannah ecosystems so that they are capable of supporting genetically robust, self-sustaining, and resilient wildlife populations. To measure progress toward this goal, we selected a suite of 12 landbird focal species that primarily breed in grasslands and oak savannahs as indicators of the state of these ecosystems on the Central Valley floor (primary focus area) and in the Central Valley’s surrounding foothills (secondary focus area). Using data on current densities and habitat extent, we estimated that at least three of the focal species populations in the primary focus area and at least two of the focal species populations in the secondary focus area are currently small (

Riparian ecosystems provide important ecosystem services and recreational opportunities for people, and habitat for wildlife. In California’s Central Valley, government agencies and private organizations are working together to protect and restore riparian ecosystems, and the Central Valley Joint Venture provides leadership in the formulation of goals and objectives for avian conservation in riparian ecosystems. We defined a long-term conservation goal as the establishment of riparian ecosystems that provide sufficient habitat to support genetically robust, self-sustaining, and resilient bird populations. To achieve this goal, we selected a suite of 12 breeding riparian landbird focal species as indicators of the state of riparian ecosystems in each of four major Central Valley planning regions. Using recent bird survey data, we estimated that over half of the regional focal species populations are currently small (< 10,000) and may be vulnerable to extirpation, and two species have steeply declining population trends. For each focal species in each region, we defined long-term (100-year) population objectives that are intended to be conservation endpoints that we expect to meet the goal of genetically robust, self-sustaining, and resilient populations. We then estimated the long-term species density and riparian restoration objectives required to achieve the long-term population objectives. To track progress toward the long-term objectives, we propose short-term (10- year) objectives, including the addition of 12,919 ha (31,923 ac) of riparian vegetation in the Central Valley (by planning region: 3,390 ha in Sacramento, 2,390 ha in Yolo–Delta, 3,386 ha in San Joaquin, and 3,753 ha in Tulare). We expect that reaching these population, density, and habitat objectives through threat abatement, habitat restoration, and habitat enhancement will result in improvements to riparian ecosystem function and resilience that will benefit other wildlife populations and the people of the Central Valley and beyond.

With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment-species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt's cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt's cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities.

Programs that incentivize private landowners to create habitats that offset losses due to conversion and climate change are increasingly being used to bolster sensitive wildlife populations. In the Central Valley of California, shorebird habitat incentive programs pay landowners to create additional habitat during the non‐breeding season by flooding their fields. However, it remains unclear how successful these programs have been in supporting baseline shorebird population needs or meeting established population goals, particularly in the face of changing environmental conditions. To address these questions, we used bioenergetics modeling to estimate shorebird food energy needs over four consecutive years that had the highest annual mean air temperatures ever recorded in California, and included years of extreme drought, as well as the second wettest winter on record. Our objectives were to (1) characterize annual variability in the timing and magnitude of shorebird food energy shortfalls, (2) estimate the contributions that incentive programs made to meeting these needs, and (3) develop recommendations for implementation of future habitat programs to advance shorebird conservation in the region. Overall, we found a high level of consistency in the timing and magnitude of habitat shortfalls, especially in fall, despite large differences in annual rainfall, a result that was unexpected, but that emphasizes how highly managed the hydrological system is in the Central Valley. We also found that the magnitude of both fall and spring energy shortfalls increased, relative to recent (2007–2014) estimates, perhaps due to aberrantly warm conditions. Incentive programs implemented to provide supplemental habitat were somewhat effective in reducing shortfalls for the assumed baseline population, but there were consistent unmet habitat needs when there were not enough shallow open water foraging areas available. Strategies to offset these remaining food energy deficits include scaling up habitat investments, adjusting the timing of habitat programs to better match the migration patterns of the birds, and adapting programs to new geographies. To the extent that there is variability in annual habitat need we recommend implementing a dynamic conservation approach. This involves scaling the amount of additional habitat created to match the shifting needs of the birds to maximize return on investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many bird populations have experienced population declines across North America over the past several decades. The establishment of protected areas has been used as a conservation action to maintain or help in the recovery of these populations; however, the effectiveness of protected areas in safeguarding bird populations within their borders from negative impacts to populations in surrounding unprotected areas has rarely been evaluated. Our study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in the San Francisco Bay Area of California for landbirds. We conducted point count surveys along riparian corridors in coastal Marin County in protected areas, predominately national parks, and estimated the population growth rates for 14 species over 23 years. We compared these growth rates to North American Breeding Bird Survey growth rate estimates from the Coastal California and the Northern Pacific Rainforest Bird Conservation Regions, which comprise larger, regional populations. A safeguarding effect was detected for 9 of the 14 species. We expected an effect on species strongly associated with riparian vegetation, which has incurred significant loss and degradation in the region; however, we instead observed benefits to general riparian users that were at least as great as the benefits to strong riparian specialists. We also expected that populations of resident species might benefit more than migrants; however, we found strong support for a safeguarding effect for both groups. Species with increasing growth rates in coastal Marin County protected areas in comparison to regionally stable or decreasing populations demonstrate the potential for protected areas to not only maintain populations despite declines outside their boundaries but also to help them recover from current and previous losses. Continuing long-term monitoring and associated full life cycle research will help identify if and when other drivers (e.g., climate change) may weaken these safeguarding effects, or when additional conservation and management is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is an important region for bird conservation in California, particularly as part of a large, productive estuary on the Pacific Flyway. The Delta currently provides habitat to an abundant, diverse community of birds, but it is likely only a small fraction of what the Delta's bird community once was. Meeting the goal of restoring a healthy Delta ecosystem is legislatively required to include providing habitat for birds among the conservation goals and strategies in the Delta Plan, yet birds and their habitat needs are often not addressed in science syntheses, conservation planning, and large-scale restoration initiatives in the Delta. In this essay, we provide an avian perspective on the Delta, synthesizing recent scientific work to describe factors that contribute to the Delta's current importance for birds, and the conservation needs of the diverse array of bird species that call the Delta home. We also evaluate the potential for the Delta to become even more important for birds in the future, incorporating climate change effects, species range shifts, and changes to the composition and configuration of the Delta's landscape. Finally, recognizing the uncertainties about the Delta's future landscape and the complexity of this social-ecological system, we provide recommendations--aimed at a higher-level policy and planning audience--for integrating bird conservation with other goals in the Delta. To improve ecosystem integrity, conserve biodiversity, and provide benefits to local communities of people, we urge a focus on creating a more resilient Delta and employing a diversified portfolio of conservation strategies, both old and new. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows ( Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Juvenile survival is often found to be more sensitive than adult survival to variation in environmental conditions, and variation in juvenile survival can have significant impacts on population growth rates and viability. Therefore, understanding the population-level effects of environmental changes requires understanding the effects on juvenile survival. We hypothesized that parental care will buffer the survival of dependent juveniles from variation in environmental conditions, while the survival of independent juveniles will respond more strongly to environmental variation and, in turn, drive the overall variation in annual juvenile survival. We tested this parental-care hypothesis using a 30-year mark-recapture data set to model the survival of juvenile Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) during the dependent and independent stages. We examined the effects of weather, density, and cohort mean fledge date and body mass on annual variation in survival during the first 12 weeks after fledging, as well as effects of individual fledge date and body mass on individual variation in survival. The primary driver of annual variation in juvenile survival was precipitation during the previous rainy season, consistent with an effect on food availability, which had a strong positive effect on the survival of independent juveniles, but no effect on dependent juveniles. We also found strong support for effects of body mass and fledge date on individual survival probability, including striking differences in the effect of fledge date by stage. Our results provided evidence that different mechanisms influence juvenile survival during each stage of fledgling development, and that parental care buffers the survival of dependent juveniles from variation in environmental conditions. Consequently, variation in juvenile survival was driven by independent juveniles, not dependent juveniles, and studies focused only on survival during the dependent stage may not be able to detect the major drivers of variation in juvenile survival. We recommend that future efforts to understand or project the population-level effects of environmental change not only examine the effects on juvenile survival, but specifically consider the survival of independent juveniles, as well as how the drivers of variation in juvenile survival may vary by stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]