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Background: People with advanced cancer frequently use the GP out-of-hours (GPOOH) service. Considerable amounts of routine GPOOH data are uncoded. Therefore, these data are omitted from existing healthcare datasets. Aim: To conduct a free-text analysis of a GPOOH dataset, to identify reasons for attendance and care delivered through GPOOH to people with advanced cancer. Design and setting: An analysis of a GPOOH healthcare dataset was undertaken. It contained all coded and free- text information for 5749 attendances from a cohort of 2443 people who died from cancer in Tayside, Scotland, from 2013–2015. Method: Random sampling methods selected 575 consultations for free-text analysis. Each consultation was analysed by two independent reviewers to determine the following: assigned presenting complaints; key and additional palliative care symptoms recorded in free text; evidence of anticipatory care planning; and free-text recording of dispensed medications. Inter-rater reliability concordance was established through Kappa testing. Results: More than half of all coded reasons for attendance (n = 293; 51.0%) were 'other' or 'missing'. Free-text analysis demonstrated that nearly half (n = 284; 49.4%) of GPOOH attendances by people with advanced cancer were for pain or palliative care. More than half of GPOOH attendances (n = 325; 56.5%) recorded at least one key or additional palliative care symptom in free text, with the commonest being breathlessness, vomiting, cough, and nausea. Anticipatory care planning was poorly recorded in both coded and uncoded records. Uncoded medications were dispensed in more than one- quarter of GPOOH consultations. Conclusion: GPOOH delivers a substantial amount of pain management and palliative care, much of which is uncoded. Therefore, it is unrecognised and under-reported in existing large healthcare data analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People who die from cancer ('cancer decedents') may latterly experience unpleasant and distressing symptoms. Prescribing medication for pain and symptom control is essential for good-quality palliative care; however, such provision is variable, difficult to quantify and poorly characterised in current literature. This study aims to characterise trends in prescribing analgesia, non-analgesic palliative care medication and non-palliative medications, to cancer decedents, in their last year of life, and to assess any associations with demographic or clinical factors. Methods: This descriptive study, analysed all 181,247 prescriptions issued to a study population of 2443 cancer decedents in Tayside, Scotland (2013–2015), in the last year of life, linking prescribing data to demographic, and cancer registry datasets using the unique patient-identifying Community Health Index (CHI) number. Anonymised linked data were analysed in Safe Haven using chi-squared test for trend, binary logistic regression and Poisson regression in SPSSv25. Results: In their last year of life, three in four cancer decedents were prescribed strong opioids. Two-thirds of those prescribed opioids were also prescribed laxatives and/or anti-emetics. Only four in ten cancer decedents were prescribed all medications in the 'Just in Case' medication categories and only one in ten was prescribed breakthrough analgesia in the last year of life. The number of prescriptions for analgesia and palliative care drugs increased in the last 12 weeks of life. The number of prescriptions for non-palliative care medications, including anti-hypertensives, statins and bone protection, decreased over the last year, but was still substantial. Cancer decedents who were female, younger, or had lung cancer were more likely to be prescribed strong opioids; however, male cancer decedents had higher odds of being prescribed breakthrough analgesia. Cancer decedents who had late diagnoses had lower odds of being prescribed strong opioids. Conclusions: A substantial proportion of cancer decedents were not prescribed strong opioids, breakthrough medication, or medication to alleviate common palliative care symptoms (including 'Just in Case' medication). Many patients continued to be prescribed non-palliative care medications in their last days and weeks of life. Age, gender, cancer type and timing of diagnosis affected patients' odds of being prescribed analgesic and non-analgesic palliative care medication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although liver function tests (LFTs) are routinely measured in primary care, raised levels in patients with no obvious liver disease may trigger a range of subsequent expensive and unnecessary management plans. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model to guide decision-making by general practitioners, which estimates risk of one year all-cause mortality in patients with no obvious liver disease. Methods: In this population-based historical cohort study, biochemistry data from patients in Tayside, Scotland, with LFTs performed in primary care were record-linked to secondary care and prescription databases to ascertain baseline characteristics, and to mortality data. Using this derivation cohort a survival model was developed to predict mortality. The model was assessed for calibration, discrimination (using the C-statistic) and performance, and validated using a separate cohort of Scottish primary care practices. Results: From the derivation cohort (n = 95 977), 2.7% died within one year. Predictors of mortality included: age; male gender; social deprivation; history of cancer, renal disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease or respiratory disease; statin use; and LFTs (albumin, transaminase, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, and gamma-glutamyltransferase). The C-statistic for the final model was 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.84), and was similar in the validation cohort (n = 11 653) 0.86 (0.79-0.90). As an example of performance, for a 10% predicted probability cut-off, sensitivity = 52.8%, specificity = 94.0%, PPV = 21.0%, NPV = 98.5%. For the model without LFTs the respective values were 43.8%, 92.8%, 15.6%, 98.1%. Conclusions: The Algorithm for Liver Function Investigations (ALFI) is the first model to successfully estimate the probability of all-cause mortality in patients with no apparent liver disease having LFTs in primary care. While LFTs added to the model's discrimination and sensitivity, the clinical utility of ALFI remains to be established since LFTs did not improve an already high NPV for short term mortality and only modestly improved a very low PPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is a common incidental finding on routine biochemical testing, affecting around 1% of the population. The majority of individuals will be asymptomatic at diagnosis, with no evidence of end organ damage, and unless individuals aged <50 years at diagnosis, they are often considered to have 'mild' PHPT, as they do not meet published criteria for parathyroidectomy (PTX). However, there is increasing evidence that 'mild' PHPT is associated with adverse health outcomes. Long-term observational studies describing the natural history of 'mild' PHPT suggest that even though biochemistry may be relatively stable in the majority, bone mineral density (BMD) does decline after approximately 10 years of observation, whereas significant improvements in BMD are seen following PTX. Recent large European record linkage studies of 'mild PHPT' demonstrate significantly increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, similar to rates published for patients with PHPT who meet the NIH surgical criteria. 'Mild' PHPT was also associated with increased admissions for nonfatal cardiovascular disease, renal failure, renal stones, fractures, hypertension, psychiatric disease, cancer and diabetes, suggesting that 'insidious' PHPT may be a more appropriate description, or at least that the term 'mild' should be abandoned. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have begun to explore the benefits of PTX in this condition, demonstrating improvements in BMD and some psychiatric outcomes at approximately 2 years of follow-up. However, larger, adequately powered, long-term, RCTs will be required to determine whether PTX improves potential long-term morbidity and mortality in patients with PHPT who do not meet standard surgical criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To describe mortality and disease-specific morbidities in patients with mild primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). Design Retrospective population-based observational study. Setting Tayside, Scotland, from 1997 to 2006. Participants Patients with mild PHPT were selected from a predefined PHPT cohort between 1997 and 2006. Main outcome measures Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were examined for all-cause mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality. Standardised morbidity ratios and standardised incidence ratios were also calculated for eleven observed co-morbidities. Results In total, there were 1683 (69·1% female) patients identified with mild PHPT in Tayside. Patients were found to have an increased risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality (SMR-all cause 2·62, 95% CI 2·39–2·86; SMR-cardiovascular 2·68, 95% CI 2·34–3·05). Patients with mild PHPT had a significantly increased risk of developing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, renal dysfunction and fractures compared to the age- and sex-adjusted general population. Conclusions Mortality and morbidity were increased for patients with mild untreated PHPT, which is similar to more severe PHPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine the operating characteristics of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and prostate cancer diagnosis rates in men who have had an initial PSA test in Tayside. Setting: A retrospective cohort study in Tayside, Scotland from 1992 to 2001. Methods: In total, 20,623 men were PSA tested during the period 1992–2001. After exclusions, 19,660 were studied. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for various PSA cut-off values by age group using logistic regression weighted for verification bias (biopsy). Cox regression analysis was performed using six test pattern cohorts. Results: The annual rate of PSA testing increased from 5.1 per 1000 man years in 1992 to 21.3 per 1000 man years in 2001. The average number of PSA tests per patient increased from 1.11 in 1992 to 2.57 in 2001. Prostate cancer diagnosis and death rates remained constant from 1995 onward. The PSA test had generally inadequate sensitivity and specificity values, so a unique cut-off could not be found for the two older age groups which could be used as a recommendation for biopsy. The commonly used 4 ng/mL cut-off was reasonably sensitive and specific only for the under 60 age group with values of 92.4% and 90.7%, respectively. For prostate cancer diagnosis, the hazard ratios (HR) were reported relative to those with a series of all normal tests. For those with an initially normal PSA test who had at least one abnormal retest result the HR for diagnosis was 10.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.17–17.63). For those with initially abnormal tests with normal retests HR = 1.63 (95% CI 0.65–4.07). Conclusions: There are no optimal PSA cut-off values for older age groups with which to make a confident referral for biopsy. The increase in PSA testing and the questionable cut-off values of the test calls for the development of an alternative screening strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of pre-operative factors predicting nodal burden in females with breast cancer have recently been identified. The aim of this study is to assess if these factors independently influence nodal burden in females with a positive axillary core biopsy. All node positive patients detected on axillary core biopsy were identified in our cancer audit database. Mode of presentation, age, core tumour grade, core tumour type, ER and HER2 status were evaluated. Tumours were assessed for ultrasound size, distance of tumour-to-skin, presence of invasion of skin and diffuse skin thickening. Axillary lymph nodes were assessed for cortical thickness and presence of ultrasound replaced nodes. Statistical significance was ascertained using univariate logistic regression. A predictive model was produced following a multiple logistic regression model incorporating cross-validation and assessed using receiving operating characteristic curve. 115 patients' data were analysed. Patients referred because of symptoms (70% vs 38%, p = 0.005), and those with ultrasound skin thickening (87% vs 59%, p = 0.055) have higher nodal burden than those referred from screening or without skin thickening. These factors were significant after multivariate analysis. The final predictive model included mode of presentation, ultrasound tumour size, cortical thickness and presence of ultrasound skin thickening. The area under curve is 0.77. We have shown that mode of presentation and ultrasound skin thickening are independent predictors of high nodal burden at surgery. A model has been developed to predict nodal burden pre-operatively, which may lead to avoidance of axillary node clearance in patients with lower nodal burden. Method of presentation and skin involvement/proximity to skin by the primary tumour are known to influence outcome and nodal involvement respectively but have not been studied with regard to nodal burden. We have shown that mode of presentation and skin thickening at ultrasound are independent predictors of high nodal burden at surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]