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We evaluate changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Greenland Sea between 2002 and 2016, a period characterized by increasing convection depths. We find a mid‐depth maximum in anthropogenic carbon (Cant) accumulation that occurred as waters at these depths were rejuvenated by deeper reaching convection; broadly, these waters have caught up with the atmospheric CO2 rise that had happened between the last time they were ventilated and 2002 and also tracked the atmospheric CO2 rise 2002–2016. The overlying waters only tracked the atmospheric CO2 rise 2002–2016. The mid‐depth maximum in Cant accumulation was not evident in estimates generated with commonly used multiple linear regression (MLR) methods. We analyze the reasons why and show that the eMLR(C*) method may not fully capture nonsteady state changes in Cant when applied along a single hydrographic section as done here. This nonsteady component equates to redistribution of C*, whose spatial gradients in the Greenland Sea are dominated by Cant. We also show that the regular extended multiple linear regression method is sensitive to loss of spatial DIC gradients, which now happens as more and more Cant enters the ocean. Our findings demonstrate that MLR‐based estimates of the Cant accumulation rate should not be taken at face value in highly dynamical ocean regions, such as the Greenland Sea, and the need for also considering the total change in DIC and how this is affected by natural processes. Further investigations into the ability of MLR methods to reproduce nonsteady state changes in Cant are encouraged. Plain Language Summary: The ocean holds vast quantities of carbon. Each year this inventory increases as the ocean absorbs a quarter of our CO2 emissions. Keeping track of ocean carbon is a key climate change research priority. Observations from the Greenland Sea indicate at first glance a steady rise in DIC concentrations in the upper approximately 1,500–2,000 m of the water column, roughly equal to what one would expect from the atmospheric CO2 rise. This is unusually deep compared to the rest of the global ocean but reflects the deep‐water formation that occurs in this region. A closer inspection of the data, however, reveals that the seemingly uneventful rise in carbon in this region is the net result of several counteracting processes. In response to deeper convection, mid‐depth waters have lost inorganic carbon generated by the remineralization of organic matter, natural carbon. This has been counteracted by an unusually large rise in their content of man‐made, or anthropogenic carbon. Widely adopted methods for estimating decadal rises in anthropogenic carbon struggle to quantify these changes, such that our ability to detect the nature of effects of climate variability and change on the efficiency of the ocean carbon sink can be questioned. Key Points: Deeper convection caused a mid‐depth maximum in the rate of anthropogenic carbon increase in the Greenland Sea from 2002 to 2016The mid‐depth maximum in anthropogenic carbon accumulation was not evident in estimates generated with multiple linear regression methodsNonsteady state anthropogenic carbon accumulation may bias the eMLR(C*) method when applied along a single hydrographic section [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr -1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr -1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO 2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr -1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr -1 , and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr -1 , with a BIM of - 0.8 GtC yr -1. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of + 4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr -1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gases inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of -0.8 GtC yr-1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021, suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.9 % (4.1 % to 5.7 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO 2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr -1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr -1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr -1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr -1 , and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 , with a budget imbalance BIM of - 0.1 GtC yr -1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr -1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO 2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr -1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr -1 , and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr -1 , with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about - 7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of - 6 %, - 7 %, - 7 % (- 3 % to - 11 %), and - 13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr -1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr -1 , ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr -1 , GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr -1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr -1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr -1 , and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr -1 , with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr -1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr -1 , reaching 10 GtC yr -1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr -1 , for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr -1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr -1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr -1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr -1 , and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr -1 , with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of -0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr -1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]