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The response of terrestrial carbon uptake to increasing atmospheric [CO 2 ], that is the CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE), remains a key area of uncertainty in carbon cycle science. Here we provide a perspective on how satellite observations could be better used to understand and constrain CFE. We then highlight data assimilation (DA) as an effective way to reconcile different satellite datasets and systematically constrain carbon uptake trends in Earth System Models. As a proof-of-concept, we show that joint DA of multiple independent satellite datasets reduced model ensemble error by better constraining unobservable processes and variables, including those directly impacted by CFE. DA of multiple satellite datasets offers a powerful technique that could improve understanding of CFE and enable more accurate forecasts of terrestrial carbon uptake., (© 2019 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2019 New Phytologist Trust.)

Terrestrial photosynthesis is regulated by plant phenology and environmental conditions, both of which experienced substantial changes in recent decades. Unlike early-season photosynthesis, which is mostly driven by temperature or wet-season onset, late-season photosynthesis can be limited by several factors and the underlying mechanisms are less understood. Here, we analyze the temperature and water limitations on the ending date of photosynthesis (EOP), using data from both remote-sensing and flux tower-based measurements. We find a contrasting spatial pattern of temperature and water limitations on EOP. The threshold separating these is determined by the balance between energy availability and soil water supply. This coordinated temperature and moisture regulation can be explained by "law of minimum," i.e., as temperature limitation diminishes, higher soil water is needed to support increased vegetation activity, especially during the late growing season. Models project future warming and drying, especially during late season, both of which should further expand the water-limited regions, causing large variations and potential decreases in photosynthesis.

Northern hemisphere evergreen forests assimilate a significant fraction of global atmospheric CO2 but monitoring large-scale changes in gross primary production (GPP) in these systems is challenging. Recent advances in remote sensing allow the detection of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) emission from vegetation, which has been empirically linked to GPP at large spatial scales. This is particularly important in evergreen forests, where traditional remote-sensing techniques and terrestrial biosphere models fail to reproduce the seasonality of GPP. Here, we examined the mechanistic relationship between SIF retrieved from a canopy spectrometer system and GPP at a winter-dormant conifer forest, which has little seasonal variation in canopy structure, needle chlorophyll content, and absorbed light. Both SIF and GPP track each other in a consistent, dynamic fashion in response to environmental conditions. SIF and GPP are well correlated (R 2 = 0.62-0.92) with an invariant slope over hourly to weekly timescales. Large seasonal variations in SIF yield capture changes in photoprotective pigments and photosystem II operating efficiency associated with winter acclimation, highlighting its unique ability to precisely track the seasonality of photosynthesis. Our results underscore the potential of new satellite-based SIF products (TROPOMI, OCO-2) as proxies for the timing and magnitude of GPP in evergreen forests at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution.

The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0-6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.

Surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements indicate pervasive early cold season (Augut–September) CO2 emissions across Arctic regions, consistent with increased ecosystem metabolism in plants and soils. A key remaining question is whether cold season sources will become large enough to permanently shift the Arctic into a net carbon source. Polar orbiting GHG satellites provide robust estimation of regional carbon budgets but lack sufficient spatial coverage and repeat frequency to track sink‐to‐source transitions in the early cold season. Mission concepts such as the Arctic Observing Mission (AOM) advocate for flying imaging spectrometers in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) over the Arctic to address sampling limitations. We perform retrieval and flux inversion simulation experiments using the AURORA mission concept, leveraging a Panchromatic imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (PanFTS) in HEO. Our simulations demonstrate the potential benefits of increased CO2 sampling for detecting emissions during the early cold season. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming rapidly, leading to an acceleration of carbon exchange across tundra and boreal ecosystems. These changing flows of carbon can be difficult to detect using traditional observing systems. We propose that measurement systems which observe Arctic ecosystems continuously from a quasi‐GEO orbit can more accurately detect these important changes, such that unexpected and dangerous feedbacks to climate warming can be monitored and accounted for. Key Points: The Arctic Fourier Transform Spectrometer Investigation (AURORA) mission concept addresses GHG sampling limitations in the ArcticAURORA uses a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) to increase repeat frequency, and a panchromatic iFTS for SWIR O2 and CO2 bands (0.7–2.5 μm)Simulation experiments show potential benefits of increased sampling frequency for grid scale detection of early cold season CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water stress regulates land‐atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchanges in the tropics; however, its role remains poorly characterized due to the confounding roles of radiation, temperature and canopy dynamics. In particular, uncertainty stems from the relative roles of plant‐available water (supply) and atmospheric water vapor deficit (demand) as mechanistic drivers of photosynthetic carbon (C) uptake variability. Using satellite measurements of gravity, CO2 and fluorescence to constrain a mechanistic carbon‐water cycle model from 2001 to 2018, we found that the interannual variability (IAV) of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake was 52% greater than the combined effects of other factors. Surprisingly, the dominance of water stress on C uptake IAV was greater in the wet tropics (94%) than in the dry tropics (26%). Plant‐available water supply and atmospheric demand both contributed to the IAV of water stress on photosynthetic C uptake across the tropics, but the IAV of demand effects was 21% greater than the IAV of supply effects (33% greater in the wet tropics and 6% greater in the dry tropics). We found that the IAV of water stress on C uptake was 24% greater than the IAV of the combination of other factors in the net land‐atmosphere C sink in the whole tropics, 26% greater in the wet tropics, and 7% greater in the dry tropics. Given the recent trends in tropical precipitation and atmospheric humidity, our findings indicate that water stress——from both supply and demand——will likely dominate the climate response of land C sink across tropical ecosystems in the coming decades. Plain Language Summary: The amount of carbon that gets absorbed by land ecosystems in the Earth's tropics changes from year to year, and dominates the global carbon dioxide growth rate variability. These changes are related to climate, but it is unclear how much they are driven by water stress relative to other climatic factors. Here, we showed that water stress is responsible for the majority of this variability, not only in the dry tropics, where we would have expected water limitations, but also, surprisingly, in the wet tropics. We found that this variability is driven moderately more by demand from atmospheric aridity than it is by deficits of water in the soil, particularly in the wet tropics. This indicates that water stress will play an important role in the net carbon balance of tropical land ecosystems in a changing climate. Key Points: Water stress dominates the interannual variability of terrestrial carbon uptake in the tropicsThe interannual water stress attribution to atmospheric demand is modestly higher than to soil water supplyThe interannual variability of water stress is greater in the wet tropics than in the dry tropics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial carbon cycle models are routinely used to determine the response of the land carbon sink under expected future climate change, yet these predictions remain highly uncertain. Increasing the realism of processes in these models may help with predictive skill, but any such addition should be confronted with observations and evaluated in the context of the aggregate behavior of the carbon cycle. Here, two formulations for leaf area index (LAI) phenology are coupled to the same terrestrial biosphere model: one is climate agnostic, and the other incorporates direct environmental controls on both timing and growth. Each model is calibrated simultaneously to observations of LAI, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and biomass using the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and validated against withheld data, including eddy covariance estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) across six ecosystems from the tropics to high latitudes. Both model formulations show similar predictive skill for LAI and NEE. However, with the addition of direct environmental controls on LAI, the integrated model explains 22 % more variability in GPP and Re and reduces biases in these fluxes by 58 % and 77 %, respectively, while also predicting more realistic annual litterfall rates due to changes in carbon allocation and turnover. We extend this analysis to evaluate the inferred climate sensitivity of LAI and NEE with the new model and show that the added complexity shifts the sign, magnitude, and seasonality of NEE sensitivity to precipitation and temperature. This highlights the benefit of process complexity when inferring underlying processes from Earth observations and representing the climate response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial carbon cycle models are routinely used to determine the response of the land carbon sink under expected future climate change, yet these predictions remain highly uncertain. Increasing the realism of processes in these models may help with predictive skill, but any such addition should be confronted with observations and evaluated in the context of the aggregate behavior of the carbon cycle. Here, two formulations for leaf area index (LAI) phenology are coupled to the same terrestrial biosphere model, one is climate agnostic and the other incorporates direct environmental controls on both timing and growth. Each model is calibrated simultaneously to observations of LAI, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and biomass using the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM), and validated against withheld data including eddy covariance estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re), across six ecosystems from the tropics to high-latitudes. Both model formulations show similar predictive skill for LAI and NEE. However, with the addition of direct environmental controls on LAI, the integrated model explains 22 % more variability in GPP and Re, and reduces biases in these fluxes by 58 % and 77 %, respectively, while also predicting more realistic annual litterfall rates, due to changes in carbon allocation and turnover. We extend this analysis to evaluate the inferred climate sensitivity of LAI and NEE with the new model, and show that the added complexity shifts the sign, magnitude, and seasonality of NEE sensitivity to precipitation and temperature. This highlights the benefit of process complexity when inferring underlying processes from Earth observations and in representing the climate response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of northern high latitude regions (NHL, > 50 °N) has increased both photosynthesis and respiration which results in considerable uncertainty regarding the net carbon dioxide (CO2) balance of NHL ecosystems. Using estimates constrained from atmospheric observations from 1980 to 2017, we find that the increasing trends of net CO2 uptake in the early-growing season are of similar magnitude across the tree cover gradient in the NHL. However, the trend of respiratory CO2 loss during late-growing season increases significantly with increasing tree cover, offsetting a larger fraction of photosynthetic CO2 uptake, and thus resulting in a slower rate of increasing annual net CO2 uptake in areas with higher tree cover, especially in central and southern boreal forest regions. The magnitude of this seasonal compensation effect explains the difference in net CO2 uptake trends along the NHL vegetation- permafrost gradient. Such seasonal compensation dynamics are not captured by dynamic global vegetation models, which simulate weaker respiration control on carbon exchange during the late-growing season, and thus calls into question projections of increasing net CO2 uptake as high latitude ecosystems respond to warming climate conditions. The northern high latitude permafrost region has been an important contributor to the carbon sink since the 1980s. A new study finds that as tree cover increases, respiratory CO2 loss during late-growing season offsets photosynthetic CO2 uptake and leads to a slower rate of increasing annual net CO2 uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern high latitude (NHL, 40°N to 90°N) is where the second peak region of gross primary productivity (GPP) other than the tropics. The summer NHL GPP is about 80% of the tropical peak, but both regions are still highly uncertain (Norton et al. 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019). Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides an important proxy for photosynthetic carbon uptake. Here we optimize the OCS plant uptake fluxes across the NHL by fitting atmospheric concentration simulation with the GEOS‐CHEM global transport model to the aircraft profiles acquired over Alaska during NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (2012–2015). We use the empirical biome‐specific linear relationship between OCS plant uptake flux and GPP to derive the six plant uptake OCS fluxes from different GPP data. Such GPP‐based fluxes are used to drive the concentration simulations. We evaluate the simulations against the independent observations at two ground sites of Alaska. The optimized OCS fluxes suggest the NHL plant uptake OCS flux of −247 Gg S year−1, about 25% stronger than the ensemble mean of the six GPP‐based OCS fluxes. GPP‐based OCS fluxes systematically underestimate the peak growing season across the NHL, while a subset of models predict early start of season in Alaska, consistent with previous studies of net ecosystem exchange. The OCS optimized GPP of 34 PgC yr−1 for NHL is also about 25% more than the ensembles mean from six GPP data. Further work is needed to fully understand the environmental and biotic drivers and quantify their rate of photosynthetic carbon uptake in Arctic ecosystems. Key Points: Carbonyl sulfide is shown an useful proxy to constrain gross primary productivity in regional and global scalesThis study used Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment observations and GEOSCHEM modeling of carbonyl sulfide to benchmark the multi‐model gross primary productivity at norther high latitude [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land–atmosphere carbon and water exchanges have large uncertainty in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Using observations to reduce TBM structural and parametric errors and uncertainty is a critical priority for both understanding and accurately predicting carbon and water fluxes. Recent implementations of the Bayesian CARbon DAta–MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) have yielded key insights into ecosystem carbon and water cycling. CARDAMOM estimates parameters for an associated TBM of intermediate complexity (Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon – DALEC). These CARDAMOM analyses – informed by co-located C​​​​​​​ and H 2 O flux observations – have exhibited considerable skill in both representing the variability of assimilated observations and predicting withheld observations. CARDAMOM and DALEC have been continuously developed to accommodate new scientific challenges and an expanding variety of observational constraints. However, so far there has been no concerted effort to globally and systematically validate CARDAMOM performance across individual model–data fusion configurations. Here we use the FLUXNET 2015 dataset – an ensemble of 200+ eddy covariance flux tower sites – to formulate a concerted benchmarking framework for CARDAMOM carbon (photosynthesis and net C exchange) and water (evapotranspiration) flux estimates (CARDAMOM-FluxVal version 1.0). We present a concise set of skill metrics to evaluate CARDAMOM performance against both assimilated and withheld FLUXNET 2015 photosynthesis, net CO 2 exchange, and evapotranspiration estimates. We further demonstrate the potential for tailored CARDAMOM evaluations by categorizing performance in terms of (i) individual land-cover types, (ii) monthly, annual, and mean fluxes, and (iii) length of assimilation data. The CARDAMOM benchmarking system – along with the CARDAMOM driver files provided – can be readily repeated to support both the intercomparison between existing CARDAMOM model configurations and the formulation, development, and testing of new CARDAMOM model structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flow of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems and the response to climate are critical but highly uncertain processes in the global carbon cycle. However, with a rapidly expanding array of in situ and satellite data, there is an opportunity to improve our mechanistic understanding of the carbon (C) cycle's response to land use and climate change. Uncertainty in temperature limitation on productivity poses a significant challenge to predicting the response of ecosystem carbon fluxes to a changing climate. Here we diagnose and quantitatively resolve environmental limitations on the growing-season onset of gross primary production (GPP) using nearly 2 decades of meteorological and C flux data (2000–2018) at a subalpine evergreen forest in Colorado, USA. We implement the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) model–data fusion network to resolve the temperature sensitivity of spring GPP. To capture a GPP temperature limitation – a critical component of the integrated sensitivity of GPP to temperature – we introduced a cold-temperature scaling function in CARDAMOM to regulate photosynthetic productivity. We found that GPP was gradually inhibited at temperatures below 6.0 ∘ C (± 2.6 ∘ C) and completely inhibited below - 7.1 ∘ C (± 1.1 ∘ C). The addition of this scaling factor improved the model's ability to replicate spring GPP at interannual and decadal timescales (r=0.88), relative to the nominal CARDAMOM configuration (r=0.47), and improved spring GPP model predictability outside of the data assimilation training period (r=0.88). While cold-temperature limitation has an important influence on spring GPP, it does not have a significant impact on integrated growing-season GPP, revealing that other environmental controls, such as precipitation, play a more important role in annual productivity. This study highlights growing-season onset temperature as a key limiting factor for spring growth in winter-dormant evergreen forests, which is critical in understanding future responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atmospheric Carbon Transport (ACT)‐America Earth Venture mission conducted five airborne campaigns across four seasons from 2016 to 2019, to study the transport and fluxes of Greenhouse gases across the eastern United States. Unprecedented spatial sampling of atmospheric tracers (CO2, carbon monoxide [CO], carbonyl sulfide [COS]) related to biospheric processes offers opportunities to improve our qualitative and quantitative understanding of seasonal and spatial patterns of biospheric carbon uptake. Here, we examine co‐variation of boundary layer enhancements of CO2, CO, and COS across three diverse regions: the crop‐dominated Midwest, evergreen‐dominated South, and deciduous broadleaf‐dominated Northeast. To understand the biogeochemical processes controlling these tracers, we compare the observed co‐variation to simulated co‐variation resulting from model‐ and satellite‐ constrained surface carbon fluxes. We found indication of a common terrestrial biogenic sink of CO2 and COS and secondary production of CO from biogenic sources in summer throughout the eastern US, driven by stomatal conductance. Upper Midwest crops drive ΔCO2 and ΔCOS depletion from early to late summer. Northeastern temperate forests drive ΔCO2 and ΔCOS depletion in late summer. The unprecedented ACT‐America flask samples uncovered evidence that southern humid temperate forests photosynthesize and absorb CO2 and COS, and emit CO precursors, deep into the growing season. Satellite‐ constrained carbon fluxes capture much of the observed seasonal and spatial variability, but underestimate the magnitude of net CO2 and COS depletion in the South, indicating a stronger than expected net sink of CO2 in late summer. Additional sampling of the South will more accurately constrain underlying biological processes and climate sensitivities governing southern carbon dynamics. Plain Language Summary: The Atmospheric Carbon Transport (ACT)‐America airborne mission provided unprecedented sampling of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations throughout the eastern United States from 2016 to 2019. A subset of these gases, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), carbonyl sulfide (COS), and carbon monoxide (CO), are strongly influenced by photosynthetic activity in plants. Unlike other sources of carbon such as fossil fuels and biomass burning, photosynthetic influences on CO2, COS, and CO are correlated in time and space. As such, the covariation of boundary layer enhancements of CO2, COS, and CO can provide clues about the seasonal and spatial distribution of plant carbon uptake. By examining this covariation across diverse regions in the eastern US, we uncovered evidence that humid temperate forests in the previously poorly constrained southern US continue to photosynthesize and absorb CO2 and COS (and emit CO through biogenic volatile organic compound precursor emissions) deeper into the growing season than expected by models and satellite‐constrained estimates. Our results imply that southern US forests have stronger climate sensitivities than currently accounted for in models. Key Points: Atmospheric Carbon Transport‐America airborne flask observations of CO2, carbonyl sulfide, and carbon monoxide (CO) contains information about photosynthetic carbon uptakeBoundary layer enhancements of CO2 and CO show significant anti‐correlation in summer across eastern USComparison to model and data constrained simulations suggest higher than expected photosynthetic carbon uptake in southern evergreen forests [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flow of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems and the response to climate is a critical but highly uncertain process in the global carbon cycle. However, with a rapidly expanding array of in situ and satellite data, there is an opportunity to improve our mechanistic understanding of the carbon (C) cycle's response to land use and climate change. Uncertainty in temperature limitation on productivity pose a significant challenge to predicting the response of ecosystem carbon fluxes to a changing climate. Here we diagnose and quantitatively resolve environmental limitations on growing season onset of gross primary production (GPP) using nearly two decades of meteorological and C flux data (2000-2018) at a subalpine evergreen forest in Colorado USA. We implement the CARDAMOM model-data fusion network to resolve the temperature sensitivity of spring GPP. To capture a GPP temperature limitation - a critical component of integrated sensitivity of GPP to temperature - we introduced a cold temperature scaling function in CARDAMOM to regulate photosynthetic productivity. We found that GPP was gradually inhibited at temperature below 6.0 °C (± 2.6 °C) and completely inhibited below -7.1 ° (± 1.1 °C). The addition of this scaling factor improved the model's ability to replicate spring GPP at interannual and decadal time scales (r = 0.88), relative to the nominal CARDAMOM configuration (r = 0.47), and improved spring GPP model predictability outside of the data assimilation training period (r = 0.88) . While cold temperature limitation has an important influence on spring GPP, it does not have a significant impact on integrated growing season GPP, revealing that other environmental controls, such as precipitation, play a more important role in annual productivity. This study highlights growing season onset temperature as a key limiting factor for spring growth in winter-dormant evergreen forests, which is critical in understanding future responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in modulating the interactions of climate with the Earth system, but different models often make vastly different predictions of its behavior. Efforts to reduce model uncertainty have commonly focused on model structure, namely by introducing additional processes and increasing structural complexity. However, the extent to which increased structural complexity can directly improve predictive skill is unclear. While adding processes may improve realism, the resulting models are often encumbered by a greater number of poorly determined or over-generalized parameters. To guide efficient model development, here we map the theoretical relationship between model complexity and predictive skill. To do so, we developed 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models spanning an axis of complexity and incorporated them into a model–data fusion system. We calibrated each model at six globally distributed eddy covariance sites with long observation time series and under 42 data scenarios that resulted in different degrees of parameter uncertainty. For each combination of site, data scenario, and model, we then predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for validation against independent local site data. Though the maximum model complexity we evaluated is lower than most traditional terrestrial biosphere models, the complexity range we explored provides universal insight into the inter-relationship between structural uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model forecast skill. Specifically, increased complexity only improves forecast skill if parameters are adequately informed (e.g., when NEE observations are used for calibration). Otherwise, increased complexity can degrade skill and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal. This finding remains consistent regardless of whether NEE or LAI is predicted. Our COMPLexity EXperiment (COMPLEX) highlights the importance of robust observation-based parameterization for land surface modeling and suggests that data characterizing net carbon fluxes will be key to improving decadal predictions of high-dimensional terrestrial biosphere models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present a global and regionally resolved terrestrial net biosphere exchange (NBE) dataset with corresponding uncertainties between 2010–2018: Carbon Monitoring System Flux Net Biosphere Exchange 2020 (CMS-Flux NBE 2020). It is estimated using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) top-down flux inversion system that assimilates column CO 2 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and NASA's Observing Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). The regional monthly fluxes are readily accessible as tabular files, and the gridded fluxes are available in NetCDF format. The fluxes and their uncertainties are evaluated by extensively comparing the posterior CO 2 mole fractions with CO 2 observations from aircraft and the NOAA marine boundary layer reference sites. We describe the characteristics of the dataset as the global total, regional climatological mean, and regional annual fluxes and seasonal cycles. We find that the global total fluxes of the dataset agree with atmospheric CO 2 growth observed by the surface-observation network within uncertainty. Averaged between 2010 and 2018, the tropical regions range from close to neutral in tropical South America to a net source in Africa; these contrast with the extra-tropics, which are a net sink of 2.5±0.3 Gt C/year. The regional satellite-constrained NBE estimates provide a unique perspective for understanding the terrestrial biosphere carbon dynamics and monitoring changes in regional contributions to the changes of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. The gridded and regional aggregated dataset can be accessed at 10.25966/4v02-c391 (Liu et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in modulating the interactions of climate with the Earth system, but different models often make vastly different predictions of its behavior. Efforts to reduce model uncertainty have commonly focused on model structure, namely by introducing additional processes and increasing structural complexity. However, the extent to which increased structural complexity can directly improve predictive skill is unclear. While adding processes may improve realism, the resulting models are often encumbered by a greater number of poorly-determined or over-generalized parameters. To guide efficient model development, here we map the theoretical relationship between model complexity and predictive skill. To do so, we developed 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models spanning an axis of complexity and incorporated them into a model–data fusion system. We calibrated each model at 6 globally-distributed eddy covariance sites with long observation time series and under 42 data scenarios that resulted in different degrees of parameter uncertainty. For each combination of site, data scenario, and model, we then predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for validation against independent local site data. Though the maximum model complexity we evaluated is lower than most traditional terrestrial biosphere models, the complexity range we explored provides universal insight into the inter-relationship between structural uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model forecast skill. Specifically, increased complexity only improves forecast skill if parameters are adequately informed (e.g., when NEE observations are used for calibration). Otherwise, increased complexity can degrade skill and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal. This finding remains consistent regardless of whether NEE or LAI is predicted. Our COMPLexity EXperiment (COMPLEX) highlights the importance of robust, observation-based parameterization for land surface modeling and suggests that data characterizing net carbon fluxes will be key to improving decadal predictions of high-dimensional terrestrial biosphere models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When estimating fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions from observed CO2 concentrations, the accuracy can be hampered by biogenic carbon exchanges during the growing season even for urban areas where strong fossil fuel emissions are found. While biogenic carbon fluxes have been studied extensively across natural vegetation types, biogenic carbon fluxes within an urban area have been challenging to quantify due to limited observations and differences between urban versus rural regions. Here we developed a simple model representation, i.e., Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) for Modeling Urban biogenic Fluxes ("SMUrF"), that estimates the gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) over cities around the globe. Specifically, we leveraged space-based SIF, machine learning, eddy-covariance flux data, and additional remote sensing-based products, and developed algorithms to gap fill fluxes for urban areas. Grid-level hourly mean net ecosystem exchange (NEE) are extracted from SMUrF and evaluated against 1) non-gapfilled measurements at 67 eddy-covariance (EC) sites from FLUXNET during 2010-2014 (r > 0.7 for most data-rich biomes), 2) independent observations at two urban vegetation and two crop EC sites over Indianapolis from Aug 2017 to Dec 2018 (r = 0.75), and 3) an urban biospheric model based on fine-grained land cover classification within Los Angeles (r = 0.83). Moreover, we compared SMUrF-based NEE with inventory-based FFCO2 emissions over 40 cities and addressed the urban-rural contrast regarding both the magnitude and timing of CO2 fluxes. By examining a few summertime satellite tracks over four cities, we found that the urban-rural gradient in column CO2 (XCO2) anomalies due to NEE can sometimes reach ~ 0.5 ppm and be close to XCO2 enhancements due to FFCO2 emissions. With rapid advances in space-based measurements and increased sampling of SIF and CO2 measurements over urban areas, SMUrF can be useful for informing the biogenic CO2 fluxes over highly vegetated regions during the growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present a global and regionally-resolved terrestrial net biosphere exchange (NBE) dataset with corresponding uncertainties between 2010-2018: CMS-Flux NBE 2020. It is estimated using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) top-down flux inversion system that assimilates column CO2 observations from Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and the NASA's Observing Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2). The regional monthly fluxes are readily accessible as tabular files, and the gridded fluxes are available in NetCDF format. The fluxes and their uncertainty estimates are evaluated by extensively comparing the posterior CO2 mole fractions with aircraft CO2 observations. We describe the characteristics of the dataset as global total, regional climatological mean, and regional annual fluxes and seasonal cycles. We find that the global total fluxes of the dataset agree with atmospheric CO2 growth observed by the surface-observation network within uncertainty. Averaged between 2010 and 2018, the tropical regions range from close-to neutral in tropical South America to a net source in Africa; these contrast the extra-tropics, which are a net sink of 2.5 ± 0.3 gigaton carbon per year. The regional satellite-constrained NBE estimates provide a unique perspective for understanding the terrestrial biosphere carbon dynamics and monitoring changes in regional contributions to the changes of atmospheric CO2 growth rate. The gridded and regional aggregated dataset can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.25966%2F4v02-c391 (Liu et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent successes in passive remote sensing of far-red solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) have spurred the development and integration of canopy-level fluorescence models in global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) for climate and carbon cycle research. The interaction of fluorescence with photochemistry at the leaf and canopy scales provides opportunities to diagnose and constrain model simulations of photosynthesis and related processes, through direct comparison to and assimilation of tower, airborne, and satellite data. TBMs describe key processes related to the absorption of sunlight, leaf-level fluorescence emission, scattering, and reabsorption throughout the canopy. Here, we analyze simulations from an ensemble of process-based TBM–SIF models (SiB3 – Simple Biosphere Model, SiB4, CLM4.5 – Community Land Model, CLM5.0, BETHY – Biosphere Energy Transfer Hydrology, ORCHIDEE – Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems, and BEPS – Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator) and the SCOPE (Soil Canopy Observation Photosynthesis Energy) canopy radiation and vegetation model at a subalpine evergreen needleleaf forest near Niwot Ridge, Colorado. These models are forced with local meteorology and analyzed against tower-based continuous far-red SIF and gross-primary-productivity-partitioned (GPP) eddy covariance data at diurnal and synoptic scales during the growing season (July–August 2017). Our primary objective is to summarize the site-level state of the art in TBM–SIF modeling over a relatively short time period (summer) when light, canopy structure, and pigments are similar, setting the stage for regional- to global-scale analyses. We find that these models are generally well constrained in simulating photosynthetic yield but show strongly divergent patterns in the simulation of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), absolute GPP and fluorescence, quantum yields, and light response at the leaf and canopy scales. This study highlights the need for mechanistic modeling of nonphotochemical quenching in stressed and unstressed environments and improved the representation of light absorption (APAR), distribution of light across sunlit and shaded leaves, and radiative transfer from the leaf to the canopy scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent successes in passive remote sensing of far-red solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) have spurred development and integration of canopy-level fluorescence models in global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) for climate and carbon cycle research. The interaction of fluorescence with photochemistry at the leaf- and canopy- scale provides opportunities to diagnose and constrain model simulations of photosynthesis and related processes, through direct comparison to and assimilation of tower, airborne, and satellite data. TBMs describe key processes relating to absorption of sunlight, leaf-level fluorescence emission, scattering and reabsorption throughout the canopy. Here, we analyze simulations from an ensemble of process-based TBM-SIF models (SiB3, SiB4, CLM4.5, CLM5.0, BETHY, ORCHIDEE, BEPS) at a subalpine evergreen needleleaf forest near Niwot Ridge, Colorado. These models are forced with tower observed meteorological data, and analyzed against continuous far-red SIF and gross primary productivity (GPP) partitioned eddy covariance data at diurnal and synoptic scales during the growing season (July-August 2017). Our primary objective is to summarize the site-level state of the art in TBM-SIF modeling over a relatively short time period (summer) when light, structure, and pigments are similar, setting the stage for regional- to global-scale analyses. We find that these models are generally well constrained in simulating photosynthetic yield, but show strongly divergent patterns in the simulation of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), absolute GPP and fluorescence, quantum yields, and light response at leaf and canopy scale. This study highlights the need for mechanistic modeling of non-photochemical quenching in stressed and unstressed environments, and improved representation of light absorption (APAR), distribution of sunlit and shaded light, and radiative transfer from leaf to canopy scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO2) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010–2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO2 uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO2 balance. Eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO2 exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO2 exchange in the fall. The net CO2 exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO2 exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon–climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO2 dynamics in the northern high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Far‐red solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been retrieved from multiple satellites with nearly continuous global coverage since 1996. Multiple official and research‐grade retrievals provide a means for cross validation across sensors and algorithms, but produces substantial variation across products due to differences in instrument characteristics and retrieval algorithm. The lack of a consistent, calibrated SIF data set hampers scientific interpretation of planetary photosynthesis. NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO‐2) offers small sampling footprints, high data acquisition, and repeating spatially resolved targets at bioclimatically diverse locations, providing a unique benchmark for spaceborne sensors traceable to ground data. We leverage overlap between the longer running Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 (GOME‐2) SIF time series, and more recent state‐of‐the‐art OCO‐2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) data, in a first attempt to reconcile inconsistencies in the long‐term record. After screening and correcting for key instrument differences (time of day, wavelength, Sun‐sensor geometry, cloud effects, footprint area), we find that Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument perform exceedingly well in capturing spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability across OCO‐2 targets. However, Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 retrieval methods differ by up to a factor of 2 in signal‐to‐noise and magnitude. Magnitude differences are largely attributed to retrieval window choice, with wider windows producing higher magnitudes. The assumed SIF spectral shape has negligible effect. Substantial research is needed to understand remaining sensitivities to atmospheric absorption and reflectance. We conclude that OCO‐2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument have opened up the possibility to produce a multidecadal SIF record with well‐characterized uncertainty and error quantification for overlapping instruments, enabling back‐calibration of previous instruments and production of a consistent, research‐grade, harmonized time series. Key Points: Accounting for illumination effects, Sun‐sensory geometry, and uniform vegetation improves consistency across SIF data setsTROPOMI and GOME‐2 SIF data sets compare well to OCO‐2 target data, which are traceable to ground observationsRetrieval algorithm differences in GOME‐2 SIF magnitude and signal‐to‐noise largely attributed to length of retrieval window [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While heterotrophic respiration (Rh) makes up about a quarter of gross global terrestrial carbon fluxes, it remains among the least observed carbon fluxes, particularly outside the mid-latitudes. In situ measurements collected in the Soil Respiration Database (SRDB) number only a few hundred worldwide. Similarly, only a single data-driven wall-to-wall estimate of annual average heterotrophic respiration exists, based on bottom-up upscaling of SRDB measurements using an assumed functional form to account for climate variability. In this study, we exploit recent advances in remote sensing of terrestrial carbon fluxes to estimate global variations in heterotrophic respiration in a top-down fashion at monthly temporal resolution and 4x5° spatial resolution. We combine net ecosystem productivity estimates from atmospheric inversions of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System- Flux (CMS-Flux) with an optimally-scaled gross primary productivity dataset based on satellite-observed solar-induced fluorescence variations to estimate total ecosystem respiration as a residual of the terrestrial carbon balance. The ecosystem respiration is then separated into autotrophic and heterotrophic components based on a spatially-varying carbon use efficiency retrieved in a model-data fusion framework (the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework, CARDAMOM). The resulting dataset is independent of any assumptions about how heterotrophic respiration responds to climate or substrate variations. It estimates an annual average global average heterotrophic respiration flux of 43.6±19.3PgC/yr. These top-down estimates are compared to bottom-up estimates of annual heterotrophic respiration, with new uncertainty estimates that partially account for sampling and model errors. Top-down heterotrophic respiration estimates are higher than those from bottom-up upscaling everywhere except at high latitudes, and are 30% greater overall (43.6PgC/yr vs. 33.4PgC/yr). The uncertainty ranges of both methods are comparable, except poleward of 45 degrees North, where bottom-up uncertainties are greater. The ratio of top-down heterotrophic to total ecosystem respiration varies seasonally by as much as 0.6 depending on season and climate, illustrating the importance of studying the drivers of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration separately, and thus the importance of data-driven estimates of Rh such as those estimated here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The springtime transition to regional‐scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze–thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO2 from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape thaw in boreal forests typically occurs in late April (DOY 111 ± 7) with a 29 ± 6 day lag until photosynthetic onset. North Slope tundra thaws 3 weeks later (DOY 133 ± 5) but experiences only a 20 ± 5 day lag until photosynthetic onset. These time lag differences reflect efficient cold season adaptation in tundra shrub and the longer dehardening period for boreal evergreens. Despite the short transition from thaw to photosynthetic onset in tundra, synchrony of tundra respiration with snow melt and landscape thaw delays the transition from net carbon loss (at photosynthetic onset) to net uptake by 13 ± 7 days, thus reducing the tundra net carbon uptake period. Two global CO2 inversions using a CASA‐GFED model prior estimate earlier northern high latitude net carbon uptake compared to our regional inversion, which we attribute to (i) early photosynthetic‐onset model prior bias, (ii) inverse method (scaling factor + optimization window), and (iii) sparsity of available Alaskan CO2 observations. Another global inversion with zero prior estimates the same timing for net carbon uptake as the regional model but smaller seasonal amplitude. The analysis of Alaskan eddy covariance observations confirms regional scale findings for tundra, but indicates that photosynthesis and net carbon uptake occur up to 1 month earlier in evergreens than captured by models or CO2 inversions, with better correlation to above‐freezing air temperature than date of primary thaw. Further collection and analysis of boreal evergreen species over multiple years and at additional subarctic flux towers are critically needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate extremes such as drought and heat waves can cause substantial reductions in terrestrial carbon uptake. Advancing projections of the carbon uptake response to future climate extremes depends on (1) identifying mechanistic links between the carbon cycle and atmospheric drivers, (2) detecting and attributing uptake changes, and (3) evaluating models of land response and atmospheric forcing. Here, we combine model simulations, remote sensing products, and ground observations to investigate the impact of climate variability on carbon uptake in the Texas-northern Mexico region. Specifically, we (1) examine the relationship between drought, carbon uptake, and variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES) biosphere simulations from 1950-2012, (2) quantify changes in carbon uptake during record drought conditions in 2011, and (3) evaluate JULES carbon uptake and soil moisture in 2011 using observations from remote sensing and a network of flux towers in the region. Long-term simulations reveal systematic decreases in regional-scale carbon uptake during negative phases of ENSO and NAO, including amplified reductions of gross primary production (GPP) (−0.42 ± 0.18 Pg C yr−1) and net ecosystem production (NEP) (−0.14 ± 0.11 Pg C yr−1) during strong La Niña years. The 2011 megadrought caused some of the largest declines of GPP (−0.50 Pg C yr−1) and NEP (−0.23 Pg C yr−1) in our simulations. In 2011, consistent declines were found in observations, including high correlation of GPP and surface soil moisture ( r = 0.82 ± 0.23, p = 0.012) in remote sensing-based products. These results suggest a large-scale response of carbon uptake to ENSO and NAO, and highlight a need to improve model predictions of ENSO and NAO in order to improve predictions of future impacts on the carbon cycle and the associated feedbacks to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the spatial and temporal distribution of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is a critical step in closing the Earth's carbon budget. Dynamical global vegetation models (DGVMs) provide mechanistic insight into GPP variability but diverge in predicting the response to climate in poorly investigated regions. Recent advances in the remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) opens up a new possibility to provide direct global observational constraints for GPP. Here, we apply an optimal estimation approach to infer the global distribution of GPP from an ensemble of eight DGVMs constrained by global measurements of SIF from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). These estimates are compared to flux tower data in N. America, Europe, and tropical S. America, with careful consideration of scale differences between models, GOSAT, and flux towers. Assimilation of GOSAT SIF with DGVMs causes a redistribution of global productivity from northern latitudes to the tropics of 7-8 Pg C yr-1 from 2010 to 2012, with reduced GPP in northern forests (~3.6 Pg C yr-1) and enhanced GPP in tropical forests (~3.7 Pg C yr-1). This leads to improvements in the structure of the seasonal cycle, including earlier dry season GPP loss and enhanced peak-to-trough GPP in tropical forests within the Amazon Basin and reduced growing season length in northern croplands and deciduous forests. Uncertainty in predicted GPP (estimated from the spread of DGVMs) is reduced by 40-70% during peak productivity suggesting the assimilation of GOSAT SIF with models is well-suited for benchmarking. We conclude that satellite fluorescence augurs a new opportunity to quantify the GPP response to climate drivers and the potential to constrain predictions of carbon cycle evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a study regarding accelerating rates of Arctic carbon cycling revealed by long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements. Topics discussed include information on the ecosystem carbon balance model; information on constraints on ecosystem carbon cycling; and impact of soil moisture and precipitation trends over rate of permafrost degradation.

Vegetation growth drives many of the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere including the uptake of carbon through photosynthesis and loss of water through transpiration. In arid and semi-arid regions water is the dominant driver of vegetation growth. However, few studies consider the fact that water can move laterally across the landscape as runoff via streams and floodplains, termed hydrologic connectivity. Using multiple observations alongside models and a hydromorphology dataset for Australia, we examine how ecosystems with high hydrologic connectivity differ in their vegetation response to water availability, soil properties, and interannual variability and extremes in vegetation productivity. We find that the average interannual variability of vegetation productivity is 21–34% higher in ecosystems with high hydrologic connectivity, with skewed annual anomalies showing larger extremes in carbon uptake. This is driven by a higher average and more variable surface soil moisture and significantly higher soil available water capacity and soil depth. These spatially small ecosystems, covering 14% of the study region, contribute 15–22% (median = 17%) to regional-scale carbon uptake through higher rates of gross photosynthesis, especially evident during wet years, and 3–37% (median = 19%) to annual anomalies. Current global land surface models do not reproduce the observed spatial patterns of interannual variability in carbon uptake over regions where hydrologic connectivity is high as they lack the mechanism of connectivity of water between discrete land surface elements. This study highlights the significant role of riparian and floodplain vegetation on the interannual variability and extremes of the regional carbon cycle. • Multiple satellite and ancillary datasets are used to study carbon-water interactions in Australia. • High variability and extremes in plant growth occur in riparian and floodplain ecosystems. • Hydrologically connected ecosystems are important contributors to regional GPP. • TRENDY models misrepresent GPP in areas with high hydrologic connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]