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Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts 1-5 . Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO 2 emissions 6-13 . Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO 2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO 2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO 2 , depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO 2 . Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO 2 ) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO 2 ) 5 , and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO 2 ) 5 . The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced 14,15 , and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions 16 . Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO 2 -emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals 17 . Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable 4,18 .

Ocean acidification threatens many marine organisms, especially marine calcifiers. The only global-scale solution to ocean acidification remains rapid reduction in CO 2 emissions. Nevertheless, interest in localized mitigation strategies has grown rapidly because of the recognized threat ocean acidification imposes on natural communities, including ones important to humans. Protection of seagrass meadows has been considered as a possible approach for localized mitigation of ocean acidification due to their large standing stocks of organic carbon and high productivity. Yet much work remains to constrain the magnitudes and timescales of potential buffering effects from seagrasses. We developed a biogeochemical box model to better understand the potential for a temperate seagrass meadow to locally mitigate the effects of ocean acidification. Then we parameterized the model using data from Tomales Bay, an inlet on the coast of California, USA which supports a major oyster farming industry. We conducted a series of month-long model simulations to characterize processes that occur during summer and winter. We found that average pH in the seagrass meadows was typically within 0.04 units of the pH of the primary source waters into the meadow, although we did find occasional periods (hours) when seagrass metabolism may modify the pH by up to ±0.2 units. Tidal phasing relative to the diel cycle modulates localized pH buffering within the seagrass meadow such that maximum buffering occurs during periods of the year with midday low tides. Our model results suggest that seagrass metabolism in Tomales Bay would not provide long-term ocean acidification mitigation. However, we emphasize that our model results may not hold in meadows where assumptions about depth-averaged net production and seawater residence time within the seagrass meadow differ from our model assumptions. Our modeling approach provides a framework that is easily adaptable to other seagrass meadows in order to evaluate the extent of their individual buffering capacities. Regardless of their ability to buffer ocean acidification, seagrass meadows maintain many critically important ecosystem goods and services that will be increasingly important as humans increasingly affect coastal ecosystems., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Coral reefs feed millions of people worldwide, provide coastal protection and generate billions of dollars annually in tourism revenue. The underlying architecture of a reef is a biogenic carbonate structure that accretes over many years of active biomineralization by calcifying organisms, including corals and algae. Ocean acidification poses a chronic threat to coral reefs by reducing the saturation state of the aragonite mineral of which coral skeletons are primarily composed, and lowering the concentration of carbonate ions required to maintain the carbonate reef. Reduced calcification, coupled with increased bioerosion and dissolution, may drive reefs into a state of net loss this century. Our ability to predict changes in ecosystem function and associated services ultimately hinges on our understanding of community- and ecosystem-scale responses. Past research has primarily focused on the responses of individual species rather than evaluating more complex, community-level responses. Here we use an in situ carbon dioxide enrichment experiment to quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to acidification. We present an estimate of community-scale calcification sensitivity to ocean acidification that is, to our knowledge, the first to be based on a controlled experiment in the natural environment. This estimate provides evidence that near-future reductions in the aragonite saturation state will compromise the ecosystem function of coral reefs.

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing ocean acidification, lowering seawater aragonite (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω arag), with potentially substantial impacts on marine ecosystems over the 21(st) Century. Calcifying organisms have exhibited reduced calcification under lower saturation state conditions in aquaria. However, the in situ sensitivity of calcifying ecosystems to future ocean acidification remains unknown. Here we assess the community level sensitivity of calcification to local CO2-induced acidification caused by natural respiration in an unperturbed, biodiverse, temperate intertidal ecosystem. We find that on hourly timescales nighttime community calcification is strongly influenced by Ω arag, with greater net calcium carbonate dissolution under more acidic conditions. Daytime calcification however, is not detectably affected by Ω arag. If the short-term sensitivity of community calcification to Ω arag is representative of the long-term sensitivity to ocean acidification, nighttime dissolution in these intertidal ecosystems could more than double by 2050, with significant ecological and economic consequences.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of present thermal and pH exposure on coral reefs is crucial for elucidating reef response to future global change. Diel ranges in temperature and carbonate chemistry parameters coupled with seasonal changes in the mean conditions define periods during the year when a reef habitat is exposed to anomalous thermal and/or pH exposure. Anomalous conditions are defined as values that exceed an empirically estimated threshold for each variable. We present a 200-day time series from June through December 2010 of carbonate chemistry and environmental parameters measured on the Heron Island reef flat. These data reveal that aragonite saturation state, pH, and pCO2 were primarily modulated by biologically-driven changes in dissolved organic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA), rather than salinity and temperature. The largest diel temperature ranges occurred in austral spring, in October (1.5 - 6.6°C) and lowest diel ranges (0.9 - 3.2°C) were observed in July, at the peak of winter. We observed large diel total pH variability, with a maximum range of 7.7 - 8.5 total pH units, with minimum diel average pH values occurring during spring and maximum during fall. As with many other reefs, the nighttime pH minima on the reef flat were far lower than pH values predicted for the open ocean by 2100. DIC and TA both increased from June (end of Fall) to December (end of Spring). Using this high-resolution dataset, we developed exposure metrics of pH and temperature individually for intensity, duration, and severity of low pH and high temperature events, as well as a combined metric. Periods of anomalous temperature and pH exposure were asynchronous on the Heron Island reef flat, which underlines the importance of understanding the dynamics of co-occurrence of multiple stressors on coastal ecosystems.

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.

Ocean acidification poses multiple challenges for coral reefs on molecular to ecological scales, yet previous experimental studies of the impact of projected CO₂ concentrations have mostly been done in aquarium systems with corals removed from their natural ecosystem and placed under artificial light and seawater conditions. The Coral-Proto Free Ocean Carbon Enrichment System (CP-FOCE) uses a network of sensors to monitor conditions within each flume and maintain experimental pH as an offset from environmental pH using feedback control on the injection of low pH seawater. Carbonate chemistry conditions maintained in the -0.06 and -0.22 pH offset treatments were significantly different than environmental conditions. The results from this short-term experiment suggest that the CP-FOCE is an important new experimental system to study in situ impacts of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems.

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO(2) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO(2), the radiative effect of CO(2) causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 +/- 0.02 K (+/- 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO(2) on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 +/- 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 +/- 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO(2) increases global runoff by 5.2 +/- 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 +/- 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 +/- 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO(2)-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO(2)-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2) on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO(2).

Environmental conditions during the past 24 million years are thought to have been favourable for enhanced rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide drawdown by silicate chemical weathering. Proxy records indicate, however, that the Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations did not fall below about 200-250 parts per million during this period. The stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near this minimum value suggests that strong negative feedback mechanisms inhibited further drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide by high rates of global silicate rock weathering. Here we investigate one possible negative feedback mechanism, occurring under relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations and in warm climates, that is related to terrestrial plant productivity and its role in the decomposition of silicate minerals. We use simulations of terrestrial and geochemical carbon cycles and available experimental evidence to show that vegetation activity in upland regions of active orogens was severely limited by near-starvation of carbon dioxide in combination with global warmth over this period. These conditions diminished biotic-driven silicate rock weathering and thereby attenuated an important long-term carbon dioxide sink. Although our modelling results are semi-quantitative and do not capture the full range of biogeochemical feedbacks that could influence the climate, our analysis indicates that the dynamic equilibrium between plants, climate and the geosphere probably buffered the minimum atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 24 million years.

Apparent cyanobacterial emergence at about 2.8 Gya coincides with the negative excursion in the organic carbon isotope record, which is the first strong evidence for the presence of atmospheric methane. The existence of weathering feedbacks in the carbonate-silicate cycle suggests that atmospheric and oceanic CO2 concentrations would have been high prior to the presence of a methane greenhouse (and thus the ocean would have had high bicarbonate concentrations). With the onset of a methane greenhouse, carbon dioxide concentrations would decrease. Bicarbonate has been proposed as the preferred reductant that preceded water for oxygenic photosynthesis in a bacterial photosynthetic precursor to cyanobacteria; with the drop of carbon dioxide level, Archean cyanobacteria emerged using water as a reductant instead of bicarbonate (Dismukes et al., 2001). Our thermodynamic calculations, with regard to this scenario, give at least a tenfold drop in aqueous CO2 levels with the onset of a methane-dominated greenhouse, assuming surface temperatures of about 60 degrees C and a drop in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide from about 1 to 0.1 bars. The buildup of atmospheric methane could have been triggered by the boost in oceanic organic productivity that arose from the emergence of pre-cyanobacterial oxygenic phototrophy at about 2.8-3.0 Gya; high temperatures may have precluded an earlier emergence. A greenhouse transition timescale on the order of 50-100 million years is consistent with results from modeling the carbonate-silicate cycle. This is an alternative hypothesis to proposals of a tectonic driver for this apparent greenhouse transition.

Forestry – including afforestation (the planting of trees on land where they have not recently existed), reforestation, avoided deforestation, and forest management – can lead to increased sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. However, forestry also influences land-surface properties, including albedo (the fraction of incident sunlight reflected back to space), surface roughness, and evapotranspiration, all of which affect the amount and forms of energy transfer to the atmosphere. In some circumstances, these biophysical feedbacks can result in local climate warming, thereby counteracting the effects of carbon sequestration on global mean temperature and reducing or eliminating the net value of climate-change mitigation projects. Here, we review published and emerging research that suggests ways in which forestry projects can counteract the consequences associated with biophysical interactions, and highlight knowledge gaps in managing forests for climate protection. We also outline several ways in which biophysical effects can be incorporated into frameworks that use the maintenance of forests as a climate protection strategy.

The article discusses the accounting methods to attribute greenhouse gas emissions pertaining to land use activities and products. Topics discussed include the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission on the environment and the factors that leads to agricultural and forestry emission such as deforestation, land use for agricultural activities and trade and transport of goods.

Environmental conditions during the past 24 million years are thought to have been favourable for enhanced rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide drawdown by silicate chemical weathering. Proxy records indicate, however, that the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations did not fall below about 200–250 parts per million during this period. The stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near this minimum value suggests that strong negative feedback mechanisms inhibited further drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide by high rates of global silicate rock weathering. Here we investigate one possible negative feedback mechanism, occurring under relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations and in warm climates, that is related to terrestrial plant productivity and its role in the decomposition of silicate minerals. We use simulations of terrestrial and geochemical carbon cycles and available experimental evidence to show that vegetation activity in upland regions of active orogens was severely limited by near-starvation of carbon dioxide in combination with global warmth over this period. These conditions diminished biotic-driven silicate rock weathering and thereby attenuated an important long-term carbon dioxide sink. Although our modelling results are semi-quantitative and do not capture the full range of biogeochemical feedbacks that could influence the climate, our analysis indicates that the dynamic equilibrium between plants, climate and the geosphere probably buffered the minimum atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 24 million years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO2 released from combustion of fossil fuels equilibrates among the various carbon reservoirs of the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere on timescales of a few centuries. However, a sizeable fraction of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere, awaiting a return to the solid earth by much slower weathering processes and deposition of CaCO3. Common measures of the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, including the e-folding time scale, disregard the long tail. Its neglect in the calculation of global warming potentials leads many to underestimate the longevity of anthropogenic global warming. Here, we review the past literature on the atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 and its impact on climate, and we present initial results from a model intercomparison project on this topic. The models agree that 20-35 % of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere after equilibration with the ocean (2-20 centuries). Neutralization by CaCO3 draws the airborne fraction down further on timescales of 3 to 7 kyr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the climate event, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) which occurred 55 million years ago. The convergence of isotopic and sedimentological data suggests that the atmospheric carbon dioxide was the main greenhouse gas driving the PETM. Biological responses to the global warming during the PETM brought changes in the ecology of marine organisms, a mass extinction of benthic foraminifera and a global expansion of subtropical dinoflagellats at the earliest onset of the event.

Abstract: The use and impacts of accelerated weathering of limestone (AWL; reaction: CO2+H2O+CaCO3→Ca2++2(HCO3 −) is explored as a CO2 capture and sequestration method. It is shown that significant limestone resources are relatively close to a majority of CO2-emitting power plants along the coastal US, a favored siting location for AWL. Waste fines, representing more than 20% of current US crushed limestone production (>109 tonnes/yr), could provide an inexpensive or free source of AWL carbonate. With limestone transportation then as the dominant cost variable, CO2 mitigation costs of $3-$4/tonne appear to be possible in certain locations. Perhaps 10–20% of US point–source CO2 emissions could be mitigated in this fashion. It is experimentally shown that CO2 sequestration rates of 10−6 to 10−5 moles/secperm2 of limestone surface area are achievable, with reaction densities on the order of 10−2 tonnes CO2 m−3day−1, highly dependent on limestone particle size, solution turbulence and flow, and CO2 concentration. Modeling shows that AWL would allow carbon storage in the ocean with significantly reduced impacts to seawater pH relative to direct CO2 disposal into the atmosphere or sea. The addition of AWL-derived alkalinity to the ocean may itself be beneficial for marine biota. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "Fate of Rising Carbon Dioxide Droplets in Seawater," by Y. Zhang in the December 2005 issue.