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The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO 2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO 2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO 2 -driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Our study suggests that the global CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE) on vegetation photosynthesis has declined during the past four decades. The Comments suggest that the temporal inconsistency in AVHRR data and the attribution method undermine the results’ robustness. Here, we provide additional evidence that these arguments did not affect our finding and that the global decline in CFE is robust.

The rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration leads to a CO 2 fertilization effect on plants-that is, increased photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 by leaves and enhanced water-use efficiency (WUE). Yet, the resulting net impact of CO 2 fertilization on plant growth and soil moisture (SM) savings at large scale is poorly understood. Drylands provide a natural experimental setting to detect the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant growth since foliage amount, plant water-use and photosynthesis are all tightly coupled in water-limited ecosystems. A long-term change in the response of leaf area index (LAI, a measure of foliage amount) to changes in SM is likely to stem from changing water demand of primary productivity in water-limited ecosystems and is a proxy for changes in WUE. Using 34-year satellite observations of LAI and SM over tropical and subtropical drylands, we identify that a 1% increment in SM leads to 0.15% (±0.008, 95% confidence interval) and 0.51% (±0.01, 95% confidence interval) increments in LAI during 1982-1998 and 1999-2015, respectively. The increasing response of LAI to SM has contributed 7.2% (±3.0%, 95% confidence interval) to total dryland greening during 1999-2015 compared to 1982-1998. The increasing response of LAI to SM is consistent with the CO 2 fertilization effect on WUE in water-limited ecosystems, indicating that a given amount of SM has sustained greater amounts of photosynthetic foliage over time. The LAI responses to changes in SM from seven dynamic global vegetation models are not always consistent with observations, highlighting the need for improved process knowledge of terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The enhanced vegetation productivity driven by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) [i.e., the CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE)] sustains an important negative feedback on climate warming, but the temporal dynamics of CFE remain unclear. Using multiple long-term satellite- and ground-based datasets, we showed that global CFE has declined across most terrestrial regions of the globe from 1982 to 2015, correlating well with changing nutrient concentrations and availability of soil water. Current carbon cycle models also demonstrate a declining CFE trend, albeit one substantially weaker than that from the global observations. This declining trend in the forcing of terrestrial carbon sinks by increasing amounts of atmospheric CO 2 implies a weakening negative feedback on the climatic system and increased societal dependence on future strategies to mitigate climate warming., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

The first generation of forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments has successfully provided deeper understanding about how forests respond to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Located in aggrading stands in the temperate zone, they have provided a strong foundation for testing critical assumptions in terrestrial biosphere models that are being used to project future interactions between forest productivity and the atmosphere, despite the limited inference space of these experiments with regards to the range of global ecosystems. Now, a new generation of FACE experiments in mature forests in different biomes and over a wide range of climate space and biodiversity will significantly expand the inference space. These new experiments are: EucFACE in a mature Eucalyptus stand on highly weathered soil in subtropical Australia; AmazonFACE in a highly diverse, primary rainforest in Brazil; BIFoR-FACE in a 150-yr-old deciduous woodland stand in central England; and SwedFACE proposed in a hemiboreal, Pinus sylvestris stand in Sweden. We now have a unique opportunity to initiate a model-data interaction as an integral part of experimental design and to address a set of cross-site science questions on topics including responses of mature forests; interactions with temperature, water stress, and phosphorus limitation; and the influence of biodiversity., (© UT-Battelle, LLC New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.)

Denitrification and leaching nitrogen (N) losses are poorly constrained in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we produce a global map of natural soil 15N abundance and quantify soil denitrification N loss for global natural ecosystems using an isotope-benchmarking method. We show an overestimation of denitrification by almost two times in the 13 ESMs of the Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, 73 ± 31 Tg N yr−1), compared with our estimate of 38 ± 11 Tg N yr−1, which is rooted in isotope mass balance. Moreover, we find a negative correlation between the sensitivity of plant production to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and denitrification in boreal regions, revealing that overestimated denitrification in ESMs would translate to an exaggeration of N limitation on the responses of plant growth to elevated CO2. Our study highlights the need of improving the representation of the denitrification in ESMs and better assessing the effects of terrestrial ecosystems on CO2 mitigation. Nitrogen loss due to soil denitrification in global natural ecosystems is quantified using an isotope-benchmarking method, and is overestimated by almost two times in the current earth system models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China's reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting. The impact of land-use and cover-change (LUCC) on ecosystem carbon stock in China is poorly known due to large biases in existing databases. Here the authors develop a new LUCC database with corrected false signals and reveal that forest expansion is the dominant driver of China's recent carbon sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite have been used to estimate CO 2 fluxes in many regions of the globe and provide new insight into the global carbon cycle. The objective of this study is to infer the relationships between patterns in OCO-2 observations and environmental drivers (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and therefore inform a process understanding of carbon fluxes using OCO-2. We use a multiple regression and inverse model, and the regression coefficients quantify the relationships between observations from OCO-2 and environmental driver datasets within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. We subsequently compare these inferences to the relationships estimated from 15 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that participated in the TRENDY model inter-comparison. Using OCO-2, we are able to quantify only a limited number of relationships between patterns in atmospheric CO 2 observations and patterns in environmental driver datasets (i.e., 10 out of the 42 relationships examined). We further find that the ensemble of TBMs exhibits a large spread in the relationships with these key environmental driver datasets. The largest uncertainty in the models is in the relationship with precipitation, particularly in the tropics, with smaller uncertainties for temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Using observations from OCO-2, we find that precipitation is associated with increased CO 2 uptake in all tropical biomes, a result that agrees with half of the TBMs. By contrast, the relationships that we infer from OCO-2 for temperature and PAR are similar to the ensemble mean of the TBMs, though the results differ from many individual TBMs. These results point to the limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to help inform key relationships that are very uncertain in state-of-the-art TBMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) constrains the ability of ecosystems to use resources such as light, water and carbon. In turn, nutrients impact the distribution of productivity, ecosystem carbon turnovers and their net exchange of CO 2 with the atmosphere in response to variation of environmental conditions in both space and time. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the global version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP (v1.2), which explicitly simulates N and P biogeochemistry in terrestrial ecosystems coupled with carbon, water and energy transfers. We used data from remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. Components of the N and P cycle at different levels of aggregation (from local to global) are in good agreement with data-driven estimates. When integrated for the period 1850 to 2017 forced with variable climate, rising CO 2 and land use change, we show that ORCHIDEE-CNP underestimates the land carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during recent decades despite an a priori realistic gross primary productivity (GPP) response to rising CO 2. This result suggests either that processes other than CO 2 fertilization, which are omitted in ORCHIDEE-CNP such as changes in biomass turnover, are predominant drivers of the northern land sink and/or that the model parameterizations produce emerging nutrient limitations on biomass growth that are too strict in northern areas. In line with the latter, we identified biases in the simulated large-scale patterns of leaf and soil stoichiometry as well as plant P use efficiency, pointing towards P limitations that are too severe towards the poles. Based on our analysis of ecosystem resource use efficiencies and nutrient cycling, we propose ways to address the model biases by giving priority to better representing processes of soil organic P mineralization and soil inorganic P transformation, followed by refining the biomass production efficiency under increasing atmospheric CO 2 , phenology dynamics and canopy light absorption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global terrestrial nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles are coupled to the global carbon (C) cycle for net primary production (NPP), plant C allocation, and decomposition of soil organic matter, but N and P have distinct pathways of inputs and losses. Current C-nutrient models exhibit large uncertainties in their estimates of pool sizes, fluxes, and turnover rates of nutrients, due to a lack of consistent global data for evaluating the models. In this study, we present a new model-data fusion framework called the Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) data-constrained C-cycle analysis with spatially explicit data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. We calculated the steady-state N- and P-pool sizes and fluxes globally for large biomes. Our study showed that new N inputs from biological fixation and deposition supplied > 20% of total plant uptake in most forest ecosystems but accounted for smaller fractions in boreal forests and grasslands. New P inputs from atmospheric deposition and rock weathering supplied a much smaller fraction of total plant uptake than new N inputs, indicating the importance of internal P recycling within ecosystems to support plant growth. Nutrient-use efficiency, defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to plant nutrient uptake, were diagnosed from our model results and compared between biomes. Tropical forests had the lowest N-use efficiency and the highest P-use efficiency of the forest biomes. An analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty indicated that the NPP-allocation fractions to leaves, roots, and wood contributed the most to the uncertainties in the estimates of nutrient-use efficiencies. Correcting for biases in NPP-allocation fractions produced more plausible gradients of N- and P-use efficiencies from tropical to boreal ecosystems and highlighted the critical role of accurate measurements of C allocation for understanding the N and P cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009–2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia’s CO2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia’s semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]