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Identifying key drivers of manufacturing CO 2 emissions is critical to carbon reduction practices. For manufacturing, CO 2 emissions are mainly determined by production capacity and production scale. However, traditional production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) fails to consider production-scale-related drivers. To better support policy development and implementation, this paper improves PDA based on industrial linkage theory. The improved model can identify seven production-capacity-related drivers and five production-scale-related drivers, allowing a comprehensive understanding of CO 2 emission drivers. Then this model is implemented to investigate CO 2 emission changes in 18 manufacturing sectors in Hubei Province, China, from 2012 to 2017. Results show that manufacturing CO 2 reduction efforts in Hubei Province have yielded some achievements, with reduced potential energy intensity and improved CO 2 emission technical efficiency in most sectors. Changes in external market demand and final demand structure have contributed to CO 2 reduction in most sectors. Results also reveal some problems in manufacturing in Hubei Province, such as the inability to improve CO 2 emission technical efficiency and CO 2 emission technology strength, the slow improvement of energy utilization technical efficiency and energy utilization technology strength, and the reduction of value-added rate., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)