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Japan's long-term CO2 emission reduction scenarios are assessed with a computable general equilibrium model with recursive dynamics, which was modified in order to assess the effects of renewable energy supply. The period of assessment is from 2000 to 2050 and the increase of gross domestic product per capita was assumed to be 2% per year. The following scenarios in which the level of CO2 emissions in 2050 will be 30% of the level in 1990 or less are proposed: (1) if the renewable energy supply in 2050 is less than the actual potential, an energy intensity improvement of 2.6% per year will bring about a CO2 emission level of 81 MtC in 2050; (2) if the electricity from renewable energy in 2050 can be supplied to the physical potential, and instead of solar heat, 50% more biomass energy can be supplied than the physical potential, the CO2 emission level in 2050 will be 86 MtC by achieving a 2.0% per year energy intensity improvement. When the above two scenarios are appropriately combined, the CO2 emission level in 2050 becomes 66 MtC. In addition to energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy supply, changes in economic activity such as lower material input and higher labor productivity are also important to achieve the above target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a bottom-up model, the effectiveness of carbon tax policy and a policy mix related to a carbon tax in Japan are assessed to reduce CO2 emissions to the targeted level in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In this simulation, only existing technologies and practical new technologies are treated. From the results of the bottom-up model, the necessary carbon tax to achieve the target, a 2% reduction of the CO2 emissions in 1990, is found to be 45000 Japanese yen (JPY)/tC. If the tax revenue is used to decrease the CO2 reduction cost as a policy mix related to the carbon tax, the required tax rate is decreased to 3400J PY/tC. In this simulation, the technologies that make the greatest contribution to CO2 emission reduction are highly efficient gasoline vehicles in the transportation sector, and high-performance motors with inverter control and steel industry energy-saving devices in the industrial sector. The CO2 reduction achieved by these technologies accounts for 44% of the CO2 reduction in the final energy-demand sectors. The quantity of CO2 reduction in the residential sector is almost the same as that in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the additional money granted to the industrial sector is less than 30% of that granted to the residential sector, because the price of subsidized technologies in the industrial sector is less than 15000 JPY/tC, whereas 27% of the subsidized technologies in the residential sector are more expensive than 15000 JPY/tC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale. Thus, nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance. In recent times, there has been a drive for global awareness on Low Carbon Society (LCS) measures, where carbon mitigation is at the forefront. Thus, this paper analyses the LCS measures for the Thai industrial sector. Thai industrial sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. The primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the Thai industrial sector and the co-benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios. Thai industrial sector was modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse. Three groups of scenarios under LCS, emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the BAU case. Results show that LCS scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35% by 2050 in comparison to the BAU case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the CCS technology. The emission tax scenarios, where tax rates of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55% cumulative mitigation by 2050. Even though this reduction is higher than the LCS scenarios, there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios. The same applies to reduction target scenarios as well. The co-benefits, which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the LCS scenarios, where renewable fuel share increases, whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases. The LCS scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as SO 2 and Particulate Matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]