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In a global context where sustainable growth is imperative, understanding carbon emissions in significant regions is essential. Henan Province, being a vital region in China for population, agriculture, industry, and energy consumption, plays a crucial role in this understanding. This study, rooted in the need to identify strategies that not only meet China's broader carbon neutrality objectives but also offer insights regarding global sustainability models, utilizes the STIRPAT model combined with scenario analysis. The aim was to forecast carbon emission trajectories from 2020 to 2060 across the key industries—electricity, steel, cement, transportation, coal, and chemical—that are responsible for over 80% of the total emissions in Henan. The findings suggest a varied carbon peak timeline: the steel and cement industries might achieve their peak before 2025, and the transportation, coal, and chemical sectors might achieve theirs around 2030, whereas that of the power industry could be delayed until 2033. Significantly, by 2060—a landmark year for Chinese carbon neutrality ambitions—only the electricity sector in Henan shows potential for zero emissions under an extreme scenario. This study's results underscore the importance of region-specific strategies for achieving global carbon neutrality and offer a blueprint for other populous, industrialized regions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking 57 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River basin as a research area, this study evaluates the coupling coordination level of the water–energy–carbon (WEC) system in the Yellow River basin from 2012 to 2021 and explores the driving factors of coupling coordinated development. The study revealed that: (1) the development level of the three subsystems all showed an upward trend. The development level of the carbon system exhibited the highest level. The development index of the carbon and energy systems rose steadily, whereas the development index of the water system fluctuated considerably during the research period, although the magnitude of the fluctuation gradually slowed down. (2) The coupling coordination degree displayed a distribution characteristic of "high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north". While the coupling coordination degree improved year by year, the spatial heterogeneity gradually increased. (3) The coupling coordination degree presented a positive correlation, and the agglomeration level was dominated by "high-high" and "low-low" agglomeration types. The "high-high" agglomeration area had a certain degree of spatial mobility, while the "low-low" agglomeration areas showed a tendency for spreading towards the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. (4) Technological innovation, and the economic basis, had a significant positive impact on the coupling coordinated development, while the industrial structure bias showed a clear inhibitory effect. The positive role of opening up is not yet significant. Meanwhile, the indirect effect of each driving factor was greater than the direct effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a detailed analysis of the impact mechanism of industrial restructuring on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin, this paper first calculated the carbon dioxide emission data of 57 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2019 and constructed indicators from two dimensions: the advancement and the rationalization of the industrial structure. Then, the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of industrial structure adjustments on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin. Consequently, changing carbon dioxide emission trends in the Yellow River Basin under various scenarios were predicted. The research observed the following: (1) the eastern part of the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration and the Energy Golden Triangle have higher carbon dioxide emissions; (2) the advancement of industrial structures in the Yellow River Basin has a better emission reduction effect than the rationalization of industrial structures; (3) increased foreign investment will lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin, and a "Pollution Refuge Effect" will emerge; (4) accelerated industrial transformations and upgrades, high-quality economic development, and a moderate population growth rate are consistent with future development trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]