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Carbon emissions elimination in the rapid urbanization areas contributes to regional sustainable development and global climate change mitigation. With the target of carbon neutrality, the global top-class Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration which confronts with the dual pressure of excess carbon emissions and shrink ecological space has increased its carbon reduction coordination cooperation, among which energy consumption carbon emission control and natural resource sink maintenance have been recognized as the key strategy. However, the study on carbon balance prediction is lack and the amount of energy consumption carbon emissions in the future can be offset by the ecological carbon sink is still unknown. To estimate the gap to carbon neutrality, this study proposes a framework for carbon offset analysis and prediction which takes various carbon emission scenarios and the potential of natural resource on carbon reduction into consideration. After the framework conduction in the agglomeration, it is revealed that the regional least carbon emissions of 29.51 Mt mainly derive from the population and economic growth brought by urbanization process, while the carbon sink predicted to be 2552.31 Kt is still far to cover the emissions. With the regional carbon offset rate decline from 0.68% to 0.63%, the ecological carbon sink in Beijing will offset 1.21% of its carbon emission, while the least ecological space keep city Tianjin is predicted to suffer the lowest offset rate of 0.09%. The research results contribute to recognize the key factors on carbon emission control and key areas for carbon maintenance in following years, as well as narrowing the gap to neutrality with both consideration of carbon emission reduction and sink maintenance. [Display omitted] • Framework on energy consumption carbon offset analysis was established. • Regional carbon emissions, sinks and offset rate were predicted. • Drop from 0.68% in 2020 to 0.63% in 2030, the declining offset rate indicates the gap to neutrality is still large. • Implications for each area's carbon emission offset rate improvement were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban agglomeration is identified as the important geographic units of country development while contributing immensely to carbon emission. This paper explored energy-related carbon emission characteristics of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) - the typical urban agglomeration in China, from cities and sectors perspectives. By conducting LMDI model, this paper decomposed carbon emission by sector and by cities to illustrate the key impact factors in the PRD, explored the reasons for the change of driving effects in urban agglomeration in view of regional difference. It concludes that, most cities carbon emission rebound around 2017, while carbon emission sharply decreased. There are differences in key reduction industries in different cities, while production and supply of electric power and transport sector had negative impact on reduction processes in most cities. The significant inhibition effect of energy intensity is mainly attributed to the great decrease of energy intensity in main industries reduction cities, such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan. Based on the characteristics of carbon emission and social and economic development of the PRD, this paper puts forward specific suggestions and measures for differentiated emission reduction in urban agglomeration, and provides a new idea for the governance of carbon emission in urban agglomeration. • The carbon emission inventory of typical urban agglomeration was built. • Carbon emission characteristics were diagnosed from cities and sectors perspectives. • Great disparities in contribution of carbon emission variation exists sectors and cities. • Energy intensity and economic growth were key drives of PRD region carbon emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]