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Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse role of forest industry in meeting energy and climate targets that aim to mitigating global change. Finland as an important forest industry country with the ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral by 2035 is selected to a target county. This study aims to present a plausible assessment of the future of the Finnish forest industry until 2035 based on literature and a scenario building approach. The focus is on energy use and fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results suggest that electricity consumption will decrease, whereas electricity production will increase, which indicates that forest industry can provide more renewable electricity to the grid. Heat consumption may even increase as a result from building new biorefineries, but those mills can most probably meet their heat demand by combusting biofuels. Changes in forest industry's direct fossil CO2 emissions can reduce Finnish fossil CO2 emissions 2─4% in comparison to 2018. Biofuels production is likely to rise, but the extent remains to be seen. It is concluded that the Finnish forest industry can contribute significantly to meeting national climate policy targets, and forest industry in general can play a role in mitigating global change. Additionally, it was found that development of the Finnish forest industry will probably be limited by the requirement for sustainable wood harvesting, which may also be a problem for other forest industry countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Finnish government has set a target of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035 and renewable energy is playing an increasingly important role in the Finnish energy sector. Bioenergy from forest biomass is currently the most utilized renewable energy resource. European Union regulations are imposing limitations on the use of forest biomass for environmental reasons, however, and the energy sector is having to look for alternative renewable energy options to reach carbon neutrality. This paper reviews the latest changes in the energy industry in Finland and evaluates prospective renewable energy development and fossil fuel replacement in the future Finnish energy system. The study shows that only a combination of all available renewable energy forms can enable the carbon neutrality target to be achieved by 2035. There is a good possibility that Finland can replace fossil fuels fully in the energy sector; wind energy will increase its share of electricity production, and biomass will continue to play a crucial role in the heating sector. Industry and the transport sector, however, face greater challenges and should be studied in more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the capacity of welfare policies to support sustainability transitions. Welfare policy involves the discussion on public and private responsibilities and choices in public spending. The Finnish government's decision to turn Finland into a carbon neutral welfare society by 2035 is interpreted as a possible sustainability transition. The government launched a social security reform at the same time as the carbon neutrality target was announced. It was assumed that one of the major reforms would be utilised to achieve the carbon neutrality target. The research material consists of administrative, policy and political documents. The chosen documents describe how the issues are presented in policymaking. The qualitative analyses focused on the frames. It was examined how the current problems of the system were framed because the frames guide the possible solutions. According to our analysis, the Finnish government showed strong political will for sustainability transition. However, one of its major reforms was not utilised to create policies to support the shift towards a carbon neutral welfare society. The political will did not convert into action on the social security reform. The main reason seems to be related to the strongly guiding legislative frame in the reform. The legislative frame impacted on the utilised knowledge, which focused solely on the system level of social security. It could have been useful to utilise research knowledge about large‐scale reforms and how to formulate them cross‐sectionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity sector has a central role in the efforts to meet climate targets. Consequently, efforts are taking place to electrify industry, heating, and transportation. The Finnish government has set the target to halve carbon dioxide traffic emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Due to this target, the currently small proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in Finland could expand in a manner that is difficult to forecast but could be exponential. Amid already strained investment budgets, anticipating the alternative scenarios and impacts of such a transport electrification evolution is of high importance to distribution system operators in order to optimize network planning and enhancements during the coming 15–25 years. The novelty and contribution of this paper is in utilizing a formal scenario planning process to envision what the alternative scenarios are (i.e., possible futures) for the evolution of the electric car fleet in Finland until 2040 and how these alternative scenarios could impact distribution grids. The impact analysis is performed in terms of additional energy and additional power in order to gain an understanding of the high-level impacts and investment needs. The analysis utilizes a real distribution grid in southern Finland as a case example that enables quantification. The results indicate the electric vehicles will, depending the scenario, pose an essential additional load in terms of both energy and power and that the required investment levels and investment types will be heavily dependent on the scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pursuit of Finland's carbon neutrality objective by 2035, integrating renewable energy sources into the power grid is essential. To address the stochastic nature of these resources, additional sources of flexibility are required to maintain grid stability. Meanwhile, district heating network (DHN) operators in Finland are decommissioning fossil fuel-based combined heat and power plants (CHPs) and electrifying heating systems with heat pumps (HPs) and electric boilers. A techno-economic assessment and the optimized operation of DHN-connected HPs and electric boilers in providing ancillary balancing services were explored in this study. The primary goal was to maximize the potential revenue for DHN operators through participation in the day-ahead electricity market and frequency containment reserve (FCR) balancing markets. Three interconnected DHNs in the Helsinki metropolitan area were optimized based on 2019 data and each operator's decarbonization strategies for 2025. HPs are expected to achieve the highest profit margins in the FCR-D up-regulation market, while electric boilers could generate substantial profits from the FCR-D down-regulation market. In contrast to other balancing markets studied, the FCR-N market exhibited limited profit potential. Sensitivity analysis indicated that spot electricity prices and CO2 emission allowance prices significantly influence the profitability derived from balancing markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competition between the economic and natural assets of forests is emphasised in capercaillie lekking sites, which are often located within production forests. In this study, we assessed the potential use of carbon offsets as income for the management of capercaillie lekking sites. We ran simulations and optimisations for two alternative forest management scenarios in ten forest holdings located in five different regions of Finland. The size of each forest holding was approximately 30 hectares, of which 5 hectares was included in a lekking site. The basic scenario followed forest management recommendations, and the carbon sequestration scenario aimed to enhance biodiversity maintenance in a way that enabled carbon offsets to be obtained for the lekking site. We found that the decrease in revenue from timber sales was generally so small that the income from carbon offsets provided an economically better choice. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration did not seem to be restricted to a specific location. The approach we introduced can be utilised in future decision making in the forestry sector to promote the coordination of nature management and forestry. Moreover, carbon pools should be considered more comprehensively in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426–452 TgC) and sequestration potential (− 12 to − 17.5 TgCO2eq a−1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limiting the negative effects of human-induced global warming is the focus of climate policy worldwide. In the European Union (EU), the target for reaching carbon neutrality is set to 2050, including a proposed renewable energy target of 45% for 2030. In Finland, the government has pledged to reach net-zero emissions already by 2035, which is expected to require large increases in wind and nuclear capacity, as well as sector coupling with, e.g., transport and heating. In view of these plans, this study evaluates the feasibility of attaining carbon neutrality in Finland by 2035, while considering delays from potential bottlenecks, such as limited raw material availability, fuel availability, manufacturing capacity, and import reliance. The literature review highlights the considerable dependence of renewable technologies on critical raw materials and other minerals, largely imported from non-EU countries. Modelling revealed how increased biomass usage considerably reduces the size of national carbon sinks, vital for reaching net-zero emissions in Finland in the coming decade. In light of this, current climate strategy was shown to be partially outdated and short of reaching carbon neutrality by 2035, already without including potential delays from the analyzed bottlenecks. Subsequently, alternative measures to improve sustainability and reduce emissions are presented. The findings of this paper are also relevant for other countries aiming to reach net-zero emissions, especially for those which have climate strategies emphasizing bioenergy and wind power. [Display omitted] • Raw material and manufacturing bottlenecks can delay renewable implementation. • Maintaining carbon sinks critical for climate neutral Finland in 2035. • Limits to biomass usage are needed, but result in adverse industrial impacts. • Further nuclear capacity needed for 2035 climate target and electricity sufficiency. • Finland will rely on electricity imports in 2035, despite plans to become exporter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 25% of the total energy consumption in Finland has been produced with wood fuels. Since 2012, the share has been greater than that of oil, coal, or natural gas. Internal carbon pricing is used to manage the risks in wood procurement after wood import from Russia ended. Further, the EU announced plans to sell more carbon emission permits to fund the EU's exit from Russian energy. To manage these challenges, a data-driven internal carbon pricing mechanism (DDICPM) has been developed for wood procurement optimization. Particularly, local changes are considered via available information about growth-based carbon sinks (GBCS). The results of the new scenario were compared to the basic national scenario that ensures carbon neutrality in forestry. The DDICPM may provide the optimum wood-procurement operations maintaining carbon neutrality in the integrated energy and material industry (IEMI). In this study, the use of DDICPM increased profitability b 16.2, 16.1, and 16.0% between adapted wood procurement areas at the EU's emission allowance prices of 30, 65, and 98 € t−1 CO2. The experiments' results also revealed that the DDICPM could consistently and significantly outperform the conventional solution adopted by the company in terms of economic costs. A significant conclusion is that an increase in profitability is possible if the size of wood procurement areas is allowed to vary optimally with respect to transport distance to take advantage of the GBCS as a new application of the renewable carbon sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finland has adopted a high profile in climate change mitigation. A national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 has been declared. As a part of this, the use of coal for energy purposes has been banned from May 2029 onwards. The Nordic electricity market was a world fore-runner in creating a liberalized, multi-national electricity market in the 1990s. At present, the electricity systems of Finland, Sweden, and Norway are already very low-carbon. The Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined the Nordic market about a decade ago. Estonian electricity production is the most carbon-intensive of all the EU countries due to the extensive use of domestic oil shale. Especially Lithuania still suffers from capacity deficit created by the closure of the Soviet time nuclear reactor Ignalina in Lithuania. This paper presents the ambitions of the EU and national level energy and climate policies and models the multi-national impacts of Finland's forthcoming closure of coal-fired generation. We also take into account Sweden's planned decrease in nuclear generation. We find that these national-level policies have an impact on the Baltic countries as reduced import possibilities and increasing electricity prices, and the expected rise of the EU CO2 allowance prices amplifies these. We further find that the abandonment of coal and nuclear power plants increases the net import and increases CO2 emissions in neighboring regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation towards more sustainable construction calls for actions from representatives of different sectors and societal levels. Previous studies have investigated companies and national policies as promoters of change, but neglected municipalities as relevant actors. Municipalities influence construction as they are trailblazers when realizing their own building projects, as well as regulators, whose planning decisions affect local and urban development. We investigate the role of municipalities in driving sustainability transformation in construction, in particular, in relation to wood construction. The empirical study relies on data collected in Finland through a comprehensive survey among municipalities and qualitative interviews. Key factors in municipal considerations are energy efficiency and carbon neutrality goals. Regulations and norms related to construction influence municipal activities as well. We find various drivers (e.g. supportive planning) and barriers (e.g. cost concerns) to wood construction. National programmes promoting wood construction have induced gradual changes and led to some municipal pilot projects. Despite these positive examples, it seems to take time before municipalities adopt wood construction more extensively. Simultaneously, their position at the intersection of different actors and activities involved in construction provides a fruitful base for promoting sustainable construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The Government of Finland is targeting carbon neutrality by 2035. Increasing electrification emphasizes the need for significant emission reductions in power generation. As reduction in power generation emissions is partly realized by increase in intermittent energy sources, electricity storage may become an important part of a carbon neutral power system. This study investigates the behavior of electrical storages as a part of a large‐scale national carbon‐free power system model. As a case study, a three‐year model of a carbon‐free Finnish power system set in 2050 with the aim to identify various factors affecting electricity storage, and the results are compared with literature. The proposed case study features various scenarios with a national power system with very high amounts of renewables and a significant hydro capacity, while amount of combustion‐based energy production is minimal. In addition, hydrological stress scenarios representing historically severe drought years were introduced. The amount of electricity storage needed was found to be most affected by nuclear and electricity trading capacities, which is consistent with literature findings. The data period used as basis for modeling also affected the need for electricity storage, as interannual variations in renewable production were found to have a large effect on modeled results. The needed electricity storage capacities increased significantly in the stress scenarios. The electricity storage need was found to be seasonal in nature, but this may be partly due to missing demand flexibility within the modeled power system, which caused very large individual storage discharge peaks. The results emphasize the need to take several years of historical data into account to ensure system availability in different conditions. Highlights: Nuclear energy was found to decrease system costs in a 100% carbon‐free power system.Multi‐year modeling is essential to secure system availability due to the important role of hydropower and seasonal wind variability.Electricity storages were found to be seasonal in nature. The main reason was exceptionally low windiness during individual periods, which resulted in large but temporarily short power deficits due to insufficient flexibility obtained from hydropower and power imports. This was especially evident in stress scenarios and mainly contributed to the higher costs in low‐nuclear scenarios.Detailed hydropower modelling of historically exceptional dry seasons in Finland was utilized as one stress scenario. Exceptionally, dry long‐term period increased the need for electricity storages significantly due to the lost flexibility offered by hydro and reduced electricity import capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy systems are in a state of transition due to national energy and climate policies. The Finnish Government has declared a national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035. This will require further reductions in carbon intensity of the Finnish energy generation mix. Some of the energy related emission reductions could simultaneously be achieved through effective energy efficiency measures in the buildings sector. In this paper, the effectiveness of these measures is studied in alternative long-term energy system scenarios with varying CO 2 reduction targets for the energy supply sector until 2050. The results show that initial carbon intensity of energy mix has a significant effect on the achievable CO 2 emission reductions of demand-side measures. Moreover, assigned system boundaries can significantly affect the results, especially in a low-carbon energy system, where energy savings mostly reduce the use of wood-based biomass in the energy production. Furthermore, long-term perspective for identifying the environmental effects of an energy efficiency measure is recommended, since they often have a long economic lifetime and due to structural changes in the energy system, the marginal energy production unit changes over its lifetime. Consequently, the CO 2 emission reduction potential of an energy efficiency measure can vary over its lifetime. • Building sector demand-side measures are analysed in broader energy system context. • CO 2 emission reduction potential depends on the carbon intensity of marginal unit. • Marginal emission factor can change during the lifetime of demand-side measure. • System boundaries can significantly affect the results in a low carbon energy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finland has recently adopted a high profile in climate change mitigation. Finland has declared a national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035. As a part of this, the use of coal for energy purposes has been banned from year 2029 onwards. The Finnish electricity system is already very low-carbon, and more wind and nuclear power is being constructed. However, District heating (DH) is a backbone of the Finnish energy system, and it is still quite reliant on fossil fuels and domestic high-emission fuel peat, their share being 51% of DH fuels in 2018. This paper models the impacts of this transition on the electricity markets and DH systems and develops scenarios with a large-scale transition to wind and nuclear power and heat pumps in DH systems. The study finds that large-scale introduction of heat pumps would be profitable in cities Helsinki, Espoo, Turku and Vantaa, especially with the planned decrease of electricity tax. The study indicates that the impacts on Winter time capacity adequacy could be managed, but this requires considerable increases in nuclear and wind capacity. • Finland abandons hard coal use by 2029 as part of achieving carbon neutrality. • Increasing wind and nuclear power mitigates electricity price increase and capacity deficit. • Heat pumps can provide alternative to coal-CHP. • Electricity distribution fee and tax limit economic potential of heat pumps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]